Data Dive: As FA Option #3, Paul Millsap better than we think?

[smokeablount]

You would be an older version of the Hawks 2 years ago.

No thanks

Sorry once we won the lottery on top of having Jaylen Brown this comparison completely died. Honestly never hope I see it on here again. It is that bad at this point. Did you see a franchise level number 1 pick on the Hawks? Who were their young players? The since out of the league Pero Antic? John Jenkins? Their only nice young player was Schroeder. How does that compare to Fultz, Brown, Smart and whatever Zizic and Yab end up being? (not to mention next year's nets pick which would be shocking to be not in the top 8.)

Agreed, such a lazy comparison. I hate hearing how people say we would end up like the Hawks, despite a stellar top 5 MVP season from IT, Horford improving our entire team's efficiency.

Yup.  The Hawks didn't have a top 5 MVP, a #1 pick who could be better than that top 5 MVP, a #3 pick who looks like a potential all-star, a 16ppg 1st team all defender, Zizic, and potentially a franchise young center in next year's Nets pick.  I was going to point this out in my initial post, assuming someone would say we'd be the Hawks, but I'm happy you guys agree.

[smokeablount]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin. 

[Big333223]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin.

Like I said, it's only a slight decline and it may have as much to do with sharing the court with Dwight Howard every night. But he did post his lowest rebounding average in 4 years and the worst FG% of his career and, to my eye, he's slowed down a tick. And he's 32. This is when these things happen.

As for who is going to pay him $30 mil? For context, the Hornets are paying Nic Batum $24 mil a year for 5 years. The Grizzlies paid Chandler Parsons $25 mil a year for 4 years even though they knew there was a good chance his knees were toast. Bench players like Bismack Biyombo, Timofey Mozgov, and Evan Turner got long term deals in the neighborhood of $17 mil a year.

This summer, the cap is going up again. There are debates about whether or not Otto Porter is a max player. Would I pay Millsap $30 mil a year for 4 years? Obviously I wouldn't. But the state of the NBA right now makes me think someone will.

[snively]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Why spend so much money on aging players who have proven to be no match for Cleveland? Why not start giving more responsibility to the guys that are the team's future?

Using elite prospects as peripheral bench help would make sense if we had a real contender a la Detroit w/ Darko, but we're not a real heavyweight. I think it's better to fast-forward Fultz and Brown's development and spend some of the FA money on a piece that won't be falling apart as they are coming into their own.

[Csfan1984]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin.

Like I said, it's only a slight decline and it may have as much to do with sharing the court with Dwight Howard every night. But he did post his lowest rebounding average in 4 years and the worst FG% of his career and, to my eye, he's slowed down a tick. And he's 32. This is when these things happen.

As for who is going to pay him $30 mil? For context, the Hornets are paying Nic Batum $24 mil a year for 5 years. The Grizzlies paid Chandler Parsons $25 mil a year for 4 years even though they knew there was a good chance his knees were toast. Bench players like Bismack Biyombo, Timofey Mozgov, and Evan Turner got long term deals in the neighborhood of $17 mil a year.

This summer, the cap is going up again. There are debates about whether or not Otto Porter is a max player. Would I pay Millsap $30 mil a year for 4 years? Obviously I wouldn't. But the state of the NBA right now makes me think someone will.

I read cap was actually going down next season.

[Ilikesports17]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Why spend so much money on aging players who have proven to be no match for Cleveland? Why not start giving more responsibility to the guys that are the team's future?

Using elite prospects as peripheral bench help would make sense if we had a real contender a la Detroit w/ Darko, but we're not a real heavyweight. I think it's better to fast-forward Fultz and Brown's development and spend some of the FA money on a piece that won't be falling apart as they are coming into their own.

the year before drafting Darko, the Pistons won 50 games won their first round series in 7, the second round in 6, and were swept out of the ECF.

Why are they a real contender while we are not?

[smokeablount]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin.

Like I said, it's only a slight decline and it may have as much to do with sharing the court with Dwight Howard every night. But he did post his lowest rebounding average in 4 years and the worst FG% of his career and, to my eye, he's slowed down a tick. And he's 32. This is when these things happen.

As for who is going to pay him $30 mil? For context, the Hornets are paying Nic Batum $24 mil a year for 5 years. The Grizzlies paid Chandler Parsons $25 mil a year for 4 years even though they knew there was a good chance his knees were toast. Bench players like Bismack Biyombo, Timofey Mozgov, and Evan Turner got long term deals in the neighborhood of $17 mil a year.

This summer, the cap is going up again. There are debates about whether or not Otto Porter is a max player. Would I pay Millsap $30 mil a year for 4 years? Obviously I wouldn't. But the state of the NBA right now makes me think someone will.

I get where you're coming from but of all the guys you mentioned, how old is the oldest one, and how old is the second oldest?

[snively]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Why spend so much money on aging players who have proven to be no match for Cleveland? Why not start giving more responsibility to the guys that are the team's future?

Using elite prospects as peripheral bench help would make sense if we had a real contender a la Detroit w/ Darko, but we're not a real heavyweight. I think it's better to fast-forward Fultz and Brown's development and spend some of the FA money on a piece that won't be falling apart as they are coming into their own.

the year before drafting Darko, the Pistons won 50 games won their first round series in 7, the second round in 6, and were swept out of the ECF.

Why are they a real contender while we are not?

Good point - they weren't a real contender the year before.

But they had a shorter route to contention and it was easier to add core pieces in trade back then. They got Sheed for expirings and late firsts.

They had better bones too. Good size and 2-way play in the backcourt. An emerging stopper and 2-way player on the wing. A DPOY in the middle. They were plug and play with a big hole at PF and a prime, all-star grade 2-way 7 footer fell in their lap.

Millsap is not Sheed. A great player in his own right but he doesn't complete us like Sheed completed the Pistons. We are too ramshackle to make that kind of quick leap into contention. Our strengths are all fatally tangled with our weaknesses - IT/Al are at once are best weapons and our biggest liabilities (on D and the glass respectively) and their games are hardly anti-fragile.

Putting Millsap at the 4 just duplicates the 60 win Atlanta group that had no shot at beating the Cavs. It doesn't take us to the next level.

[csfansince60s]

Millsap's window will coincide with Al and IT.

Rebounds, tough , decent shooter, rebounds, durable, rebounds, plays good D and game will age well and rebounds.

[Who]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Why spend so much money on aging players who have proven to be no match for Cleveland? Why not start giving more responsibility to the guys that are the team's future?

Using elite prospects as peripheral bench help would make sense if we had a real contender a la Detroit w/ Darko, but we're not a real heavyweight. I think it's better to fast-forward Fultz and Brown's development and spend some of the FA money on a piece that won't be falling apart as they are coming into their own.

I see the issue with paying IT and Bradley because Fultz needs to start.

I don't see one with Millsap though. The Celtics are short on talent at PF and Yabusele looks a long term project to my eyes (due to his bad defense). Also, I think Millsap would be a great mentor to Yabusele.

I don't see Crowder as an issue because he can move to the bench once Jaylen is ready to start. Probably at least another year away from that.

-------------------------------

In terms of Cleveland ... I would just keep slogging away. Keep trying to improve the talent base piece by piece. Try to close the gap.

That gap could close further in a lot of ways. Development of young talent. Decline or injuries to Cleveland leaving Boston as beast of the East. Or a big trade further down the line.

Just try to maximize the talent base. The team is already so far along and has fantastic flexibility to challenge for titles down the road with or without further rebuilding (trading vets to provide more opportunity for youngsters).

[CelticsElite]

Millsap isn't going to take us to the promise land. He just isn't. It's Paul millsap. Not Durant. Not Chris Paul. Paul milsap

[Jvalin]

Millsap isn't going to take us to the promise land. He just isn't. It's Paul millsap. Not Durant. Not Chris Paul. Paul milsap

No one will take us to the promise land. Not even George/Butler/whatever. The Cavs and the Warriors are on another level. If Millsap signs with the C's for 3 years, he will be an expiring the same year with Horford and Crowder. That's a little short of 80 million in cap space out of the books. We could go after a max free agent in 2020 (for instance Davis has a player option for the 2020/2021 season).

The way I see it

plan A : Hayward
plan B : Millsap (2 or 3 year max)
plan C : resign Kelly, extend IT - Bradley - Smart

No Blake Griffin for me. Too much of an injury risk.

[obnoxiousmime]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

[Celtics4ever]

Anyone would be better than Amir and KO when he vanishes.

[smokeablount]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?