Data Dive: As FA Option #3, Paul Millsap better than we think?

[smokeablount]

There have been many posts about FA big men, and beyond going after Hayward & Blake as the top targets, I'd pursue Millsap as target #3 and JaMychal Green as #4.  But looking at bball reference for Millsap, it challenges the notion that he's flat out not a max guy.

I've seen a lot of people say they'd max Blake and not Millsap.  But in 2 of the past 3 years, PM's true shooting % was higher and his rebound % was higher- coincidentally, both of the years he played with Horford he beats BG, and in both those seasons his total win shares average is higher than BG's last 2 healthiest seasons.  He shoots 33% on 3's to BG's 30% so he can space the floor.  His blocks % and steals % are higher, he led the league in defensive win shares his final season with Al, and he still had 3+ assists a game.  PM's last 2 seasons with Al, his win shares were 8.3 and 10.1- IT this year had 12.6, Anthony Davis had 11.

Yes, Blake plays with DJ so he gets less rebounds, but if that's your counterargument than why is he putting up fewer win shares playing with CP3 and DJ when Millsap played with Horford ("not a max guy") and Teague (not half as good as CP3).  Millsap averaged a PER over 20 in his 3 seasons with Horford (just below Blake's 21.5 the past 3 years) and his 2 best VORP #'s in the past 3 years were 3.7 & 4.9 (with Al)- both higher than Blake's best 2 of 3 (3.6 & 3.4).

Yeah, Blake is 27 and Millsap is 31 and that means he could still be a factor when our young guys are developed, but he has declined in the past few years, whereas Millsap had his highest scoring and assist averages this year, and the 2 years before with Al were his all-around best. 

I'm not even saying we should go for him over Griffin.  Just that if you look at the advanced metrics, stats and regular season wins, he's a better option than he gets credit for.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

What do you all think?

[celticsclay]

There have been many posts about FA big men, and beyond going after Hayward & Blake as the top targets, I'd pursue Millsap as target #3 and JaMychal Green as #4.  But looking at bball reference for Millsap, it challenges the notion that he's flat out not a max guy.

I've seen a lot of people say they'd max Blake and not Millsap.  But in 2 of the past 3 years, PM's true shooting % was higher and his rebound % was higher- coincidentally, both of the years he played with Horford he beats BG, and in both those seasons his total win shares average is higher than BG's last 2 healthiest seasons.  He shoots 33% on 3's to BG's 30% so he can space the floor.  His blocks % and steals % are higher, he led the league in defensive win shares his final season with Al, and he still had 3+ assists a game.  PM's last 2 seasons with Al, his win shares were 8.3 and 10.1- IT this year had 12.6, Anthony Davis had 11.

Yes, Blake plays with DJ so he gets less rebounds, but if that's your counterargument than why is he putting up fewer win shares playing with CP3 and DJ when Millsap played with Horford ("not a max guy") and Teague (not half as good as CP3).  Millsap averaged a PER over 20 in his 3 seasons with Horford (just below Blake's 21.5 the past 3 years) and his 2 best VORP #'s in the past 3 years were 3.7 & 4.9 (with Al)- both higher than Blake's best 2 of 3 (3.6 & 3.4).

Yeah, Blake is 27 and Millsap is 31 and that means he could still be a factor when our young guys are developed, but he has declined in the past few years, whereas Millsap had his highest scoring and assist averages this year, and the 2 years before with Al were his all-around best. 

I'm not even saying we should go for him over Griffin.  Just that if you look at the advanced metrics, stats and regular season wins, he's a better option than he gets credit for.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

What do you all think?

This is pretty awesome info... but I think the biggest fear is that we are not getting that Milsap. We are getting one that is going to be worse each year from here on our. So what does that decline look like? If he was a little better than Griffin the last few years... how much worse is he 2 years from now when he turns 34 during the season? A lot of players fall off a cliff at that age. I think you can really only fairly think he will be at this level for one more year when he will either be flat out declining.. or a huge risk for injury (Like what happened with KG).

[Dannys Chipotle Guy]

We cant afford him.

[johnnygreen]

Excellent analysis and breakdown. TP!

Millsap actually turned 32 in February. I wonder what he believes he is worth, as not every player is worth the max. Would he only go to the highest bidder? Does having familiarity in playing with Al Horford have any bearing in thinking about Boston? I know his age is concerning, but he could be the mainstay at PF, while guys like Yabusele, Zizic, and next years Nets pick develop. He could help ease the transition with those guys, while helping the Celtics compete at the same time.

[smokeablount]

There have been many posts about FA big men, and beyond going after Hayward & Blake as the top targets, I'd pursue Millsap as target #3 and JaMychal Green as #4.  But looking at bball reference for Millsap, it challenges the notion that he's flat out not a max guy.

I've seen a lot of people say they'd max Blake and not Millsap.  But in 2 of the past 3 years, PM's true shooting % was higher and his rebound % was higher- coincidentally, both of the years he played with Horford he beats BG, and in both those seasons his total win shares average is higher than BG's last 2 healthiest seasons.  He shoots 33% on 3's to BG's 30% so he can space the floor.  His blocks % and steals % are higher, he led the league in defensive win shares his final season with Al, and he still had 3+ assists a game.  PM's last 2 seasons with Al, his win shares were 8.3 and 10.1- IT this year had 12.6, Anthony Davis had 11.

Yes, Blake plays with DJ so he gets less rebounds, but if that's your counterargument than why is he putting up fewer win shares playing with CP3 and DJ when Millsap played with Horford ("not a max guy") and Teague (not half as good as CP3).  Millsap averaged a PER over 20 in his 3 seasons with Horford (just below Blake's 21.5 the past 3 years) and his 2 best VORP #'s in the past 3 years were 3.7 & 4.9 (with Al)- both higher than Blake's best 2 of 3 (3.6 & 3.4).

Yeah, Blake is 27 and Millsap is 31 and that means he could still be a factor when our young guys are developed, but he has declined in the past few years, whereas Millsap had his highest scoring and assist averages this year, and the 2 years before with Al were his all-around best. 

I'm not even saying we should go for him over Griffin.  Just that if you look at the advanced metrics, stats and regular season wins, he's a better option than he gets credit for.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

What do you all think?

This is pretty awesome info... but I think the biggest fear is that we are not getting that Milsap. We are getting one that is going to be worse each year from here on our. So what does that decline look like? If he was a little better than Griffin the last few years... how much worse is he 2 years from now when he turns 34 during the season? A lot of players fall off a cliff at that age. I think you can really only fairly think he will be at this level for one more year when he will either be flat out declining.. or a huge risk for injury (Like what happened with KG).

This is true.  So if the Celtics think like this, is it fair to assume that other Tier 2 championship contenders (everyone but Cleveland/GS) probably think like this?  That is, if he wanted to end up on a potential top 4 team he knows he might only get a 2-3 year max or maybe a longer deal for less money per year?  And since the perception is he might not be a max guy, and he's 32, it's unlikely a non-contender is gonna give him a 4-5 year max, right?

I guess what I'm saying is- isn't it reasonable to expect (if you believe the above 2 statements to likely be true) that if the Celtics wanted to, they could be competitive in the market for Millsap if it's a realistic market and he's not getting a Mozgov contract on HGH?

[Who]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

[Smokeeye123]

You would be an older version of the Hawks 2 years ago.

No thanks

[mmmmm]

If we can't land Hayward and assuming we collectively are passing on Griffin due to injury concern, I would be perfectly happy to land Millsap as a free agent.

He would fit in very well basketball-wise on this team.  He's a very underrated player.  Heck I personally admit to underrating him in the past when he was with the Jazz.  Back then he just seemed like a slightly better Brandon Bass.  But he has really grown his game over the last 3-4 years in almost every way to match how the NBA has changed what it wants from big men.  He's definitely a stud.

Obviously, I'd want it to be on a contract that works for the Celtics, though.   And that might be hard if some team like the Nets throws a full max 4 year deal in front of him.

[mmmmm]

You would be an older version of the Hawks 2 years ago.

No thanks

Disagree.  First off, our guards & wings are way better than what the Hawks had 2 years ago.  Plus, we have far more high upside youth within the organization than they did.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Hayward is coming...I have full faith in this...another reason Ainge didn't make a deal for a marginal veteran at the deadline. Must have some sort of inside info--?

[celticsclay]

You would be an older version of the Hawks 2 years ago.

No thanks

Sorry once we won the lottery on top of having Jaylen Brown this comparison completely died. Honestly never hope I see it on here again. It is that bad at this point. Did you see a franchise level number 1 pick on the Hawks? Who were their young players? The since out of the league Pero Antic? John Jenkins? Their only nice young player was Schroeder. How does that compare to Fultz, Brown, Smart and whatever Zizic and Yab end up being? (not to mention next year's nets pick which would be shocking to be not in the top 8.)

[JBcat]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Do you think it will require the max to sign him?

He is not really a max player at his age.

It would be great if we got him around 22 mil or whatever is required to keep Kelly's cap hold if we wanted to re-sign him.

Another guy I thought of that is kind of a forgotten big man, and much younger is Greg Monroe (I believe 26 without looking it up).  I believe he can opt out of his contract and become a FA.   He is an old school post player who seems to pass well.  He seems like he has lost his way a bit with the Bucks but was very good with the Pistons.

[Monkhouse]

You would be an older version of the Hawks 2 years ago.

No thanks

Sorry once we won the lottery on top of having Jaylen Brown this comparison completely died. Honestly never hope I see it on here again. It is that bad at this point. Did you see a franchise level number 1 pick on the Hawks? Who were their young players? The since out of the league Pero Antic? John Jenkins? Their only nice young player was Schroeder. How does that compare to Fultz, Brown, Smart and whatever Zizic and Yab end up being? (not to mention next year's nets pick which would be shocking to be not in the top 8.)

Agreed, such a lazy comparison. I hate hearing how people say we would end up like the Hawks, despite a stellar top 5 MVP season from IT, Horford improving our entire team's efficiency.

[Big333223]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

[Csfan1984]

It's all about years on contract for me. If team strikes out on Hayward

Millsap 3 years $20 million per.
IT 2018 + extension 3 years Max $. 4 years total
Horford  3 years left.
Smart 2018 +3 year extension 10 million per. 4 years total.
Crowder 3 years left.

AB trade draft night along with C's 2018 1st for rights to Markkanen. Wolves could be the buyers.

IT/Rozier
Smart/Fultz
Crowder/Brown
Millsap/Markkanen/Yab
Horford/Zizic/X/X

Maybe draft Bell/Motley and Alpha Kaba(stash) in the 2nd round.

So in three years sure IT, Millsap and Horford will be toast but Brown, Fultz, Markkanen, Zizic and Smart will be hitting their strides as experienced players together.