TP to the OP - great analysis. I've included part of a post I wrote on this topic in another thread (with some additions for this thread). In short, I do think we have some advantages here, and expect most - if not all - of the games to be close because of the talent and character of the Celtics. But I still think Cleveland takes it in 5 or 6. I really hope I'm wrong and we find a way to win this series - that'd be one of the most satisfying wins for me in my entire life as a fan.
On the bright side, I think we have a moderate to potentially significant advantage (depending on who's on the court) when it comes to overall athleticism in this series. LeBron is obviously the best athlete in the league, but we're much deeper when it comes to that particular trait. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see us pressure and/or trap more than we usually do both on the perimeter and in the backcourt. I also think we'll try to push the tempo every chance we get to wear Cleveland down. Guys like Rozier and Brown need to come up big for us in this regard.
Doc enabled us to somewhat contain James for the most part by forcing him to shoot long two's. Can we do the same in this series?
My biggest concern is on the boards. That's a weakness of ours, and Thompson and Love (and LeBron) have the ability to destroy us there. I think we have the ability to force Cleveland into misses, but second chance points can easily be the difference in the series, and that Love/Thompson duo worries me. We need to rebound better than ever before in order to have a chance, and it'll have to be a total team effort.
Another concern I have is the potential of LeBron guarding IT, whether for the entire game or just for short stretches. Sure, it sounds unconventional, but LeBron has done things like that in the past, and Cleveland could then stick its worst defender on Crowder. LeBron's length could be a major problem for IT, and IT will literally never get the benefit of the doubt from the refs. LeBron may be one of the few players in the league that can stop IT on his own. Additionally, our screens against LeBron will have to be perfectly legal every time, as we won't get any leeway there either.
In the postgame show after Game 7, Kenny Smith made a good point - and a lot of us have been saying the same thing. The Celtics have more talent and depth defensively on the perimeter than just about any team in the league. LeBron and Irving will still get theirs, but it shouldn't be nearly as easy as it normally is for those two.
Luck will definitely play a role in this series. Cleveland is talented enough offensively that you have to give them something on most possessions. If guys like Smith, Jefferson, Shumpert, Frye and Williams are on fire from outside, that makes it that much tougher to win. Off the top of my head, Frye shot like 75% on 3's in the ECF last year. Who knows if Toronto actually wins that series - or at least makes it much more interesting - if Frye didn't shoot like that like? And does LeBron struggle from the free throw line or catch fire? Is LeBron hitting his three's? If we get relatively luck in those aspects, that would really help our chances.
The officiating is obviously a major issue as well whenever you play against LeBron's team. I wouldn't be shocked to see every game resemble the fourth quarter of Game 7 of the 2010 Finals. Can we get a somewhat fairly officiated game three or four times? I don't think we're good enough yet to beat the Cavs and the refs as we did in '08 and '10.
Topic: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs (Read 18327 times)