Author Topic: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs  (Read 18207 times)

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Offline jpotter33

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Look, the Cavs are (and should be) the clear favorites. They clearly have the best player in the series, and their second and third best players are right on par with our first and second best players. They're also rested, though that will show quite a bit of rust in the first game.

However, all of this talk about us for sure getting swept is incredibly premature.

There are several reasons to believe that this will be a competitive series:

1) Unlike Washington, we have several places to hide IT defensively, especially in the starting lineup. That was the biggest factor holding back our defense against Washington, because Wall, Beal, and Porter (though Porter did much less than the others, making it questionable why we didn't go that route for longer) all took advantage of IT defensively and really abused him. JR Smith and Shump are not the types of players that will be able to use their size over IT effectively, and it's a major win for us if they try.

2) Cleveland's defense, especially perimeter defense, is nowhere near the level of Washington's perimeter defense. Washington had success in trapping and double-teaming IT off of PnRs, which made him trust his teammates. But Kyrie, Smith, Love, and TT are not nearly as efficient in that regard as Wall, Beal, Morris, and Gortat. TT will be the only adequate big that can attempt to try and help contain IT off of PnRs, but he still won't be able to stop IT from imposing his will.

Furthermore, we should be able to take advantage of poor rotations and off-ball defense even more against the Cavs than we did against the Wiz, which is important because we got a ton of points off the Wiz that way. Cleveland also only has one defender who has any sort of chance of staying in front of IT and containing him in Shumpert. Washington, on the other hand, could throw Wall, Beal, and Oubre  at IT and give him different looks defensively to make him work.

3) The IT/Al PnR with Kyrie/Smith and Love will be a bread and butter play that Cleveland is going to have a really, really difficult time of stopping.

4) Where the Wizards are much more oriented toward attacking the paint, getting to the rim, and using the midrange game, Cleveland is a much more perimeter-oriented team who shoots a ton of threes, which works out well given that our defense is predicated on making it difficult on opposing shooters.

5) Most importantly, though, the biggest advantage that this team will have over the Cavs is home court advantage and being the underdog. While we were considered the favorites over Chicago and Washington (even if slightly so over Washington), nobody will consider us the favorites over Cleveland. This works well in our favor, because this team has consistently showed throughout the year that we play our best ball when our backs are up against the wall, we're being counted out, and we engage that chip on our shoulder. Unlike against Washington, I expect us to give Cleveland our very best in effort and intensity every night, and I expect all of the games to be dogfights.

Now all of this isn't saying that I think the Celtics will necessarily win the series. I think it's certainly possible for us to win, but a lot would have to go right for that to happen. However, I do certainly think that this will be a very competitive six or seven game series and that we make Cleveland actually work for the wins.

I also foresee a big series for IT. I just don't think that they have the pieces to contain him and will focus on stopping the rest of the supporting cast.
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Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2017, 01:26:34 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Can't blame anyone for being pessimistic, given how the Cavs waltzed into the Garden the last time these two played in the regular season and pretty much wiped the floor with the Celtics ... while in autopilot mode. The proof (that you can ball with the big boys) is in the pudding.
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Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2017, 01:28:47 PM »

Offline Chris22

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The refs allow Lebron to travel and commit offensive fouls every time he makes a move.
Lebron once went FIVE GAMES without being called for a foul.
If the game was refed fairly, we might have a chance.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2017, 01:29:40 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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The refs allow Lebron to travel and commit offensive fouls every time he makes a move.
Lebron once went FIVE GAMES without being called for a foul.
If the game was refed fairly, we might have a chance.
Yes, and Isaiah Thomas palms the ball on every possession. Can we move past this nonsense now?
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2017, 01:32:48 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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Refs and league want Warriors-Cavs rematch.

But I hope the Celtics make sure they work the Cavs. We're no Pacers or definitely the Raptors.


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Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2017, 01:38:27 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Hell, even the OP is hedging.  You say people are being too pessimistic about beating the Cavs, then the best you can muster is "all of this isn't saying that I think the Celtics will necessarily win the series". 

There is almost no chance we beat the Cavs.  That's not pessimistic, that's realistic.  Are people being too pessimistic that we can win a game or maybe even two?  That's seems to be the argument you are making, not that we actually have a real chance of beating them.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2017, 01:40:12 PM »

Offline RMO

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The Cavs' offensive rebounding scares me.  Love and Thompson are going to eat the Celtic bigs alive on the offensive glass.  They have good three point shooters who will get open as players scramble after the shot goes up.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2017, 01:41:47 PM »

Offline footey

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I think IT is hurt. His lack of of explosiveness the last several games is telling. Hard to give us a chance if that continues.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #8 on: May 16, 2017, 01:43:05 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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The refs allow Lebron to travel and commit offensive fouls every time he makes a move.
Lebron once went FIVE GAMES without being called for a foul.
If the game was refed fairly, we might have a chance.

Celts have nobody to attack lebron 1 on 1

Except Brown

Celts do the same thing to lebron they did to Wall on the defensuve end...think things will be tighter than many predict

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #9 on: May 16, 2017, 01:46:33 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

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Hey if the Cavs want to go hard and IT, fine as long as they keep the ball out of LBJ hands and he's standing around watching.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #10 on: May 16, 2017, 01:54:11 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I agree.

In fact, I prefer our chances against Cleveland over our chances against Washington, in all honesty.

The worst possible matchup for Boston is a team with:

1) A strong two-way PG (who can slow down Thomas with single coverage, while also hurting us with their own scoring)

2) A big and skilled frontcourt that is strong on the boards and can also score

3) A second scoring guard that can pressure our defence, so we can't just throw Thomas on guard #2 and hide his defensive limitations

Washington and Toronto (Lowry, Derozan, Valancunis/Ibaka) are maybe the only two teams in the entire Eastern Conference that offer all of that - and so I saw them as our hardest matchups if we were to come against them.

Looking at the Cavs however:

1) Kyrie cannot defend Thomas any better than Thomas can defend Kyrie
2) Horford matches up very well with Kevin Love in pretty much every criteria
3) Boston can switch Bradley on Kyrie defensively, and force JR Smith to make them pay
4) Tristan Thompson is pretty much zero offensive threat, so Amir/Olynyk can take him fine
5) Olynyk/Smart/Brown/Green/Rozier are more then a match for Deron/Korver/Williams bench

The only real advantage they have is (obviously) Lebron, but we have a ton of wings we can throw at him (Crowder, Smart, Green, Brown) at him to try to make his life a bit more difficult.  He'll have big nights no matter what you do, but if we can at least make things hard for the rest of their team then it puts a ton of pressure on Lebron to carry the load.

I still think the Cavs have the odds to win, but I don't think it'll be as easy as people thing.  I think Boston will make them fight very hard for every win, and if the Cavs don't hold together mentally I do think Boston is capable of upsetting them. 

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #11 on: May 16, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

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I agree.

In fact, I prefer our chances against Cleveland over our chances against Washington, in all honesty.

The worst possible matchup for Boston is a team with:

1) A strong two-way PG (who can slow down Thomas with single coverage, while also hurting us with their own scoring)

2) A big and skilled frontcourt that is strong on the boards and can also score

3) A second scoring guard that can pressure our defence, so we can't just throw Thomas on guard #2 and hide his defensive limitations

Washington and Toronto (Lowry, Derozan, Valancunis/Ibaka) are maybe the only two teams in the entire Eastern Conference that offer all of that - and so I saw them as our hardest matchups if we were to come against them.

Looking at the Cavs however:

1) Kyrie cannot defend Thomas any better than Thomas can defend Kyrie
2) Horford matches up very well with Kevin Love in pretty much every criteria
3) Boston can switch Bradley on Kyrie defensively, and force JR Smith to make them pay
4) Tristan Thompson is pretty much zero offensive threat, so Amir/Olynyk can take him fine
5) Olynyk/Smart/Brown/Green/Rozier are more then a match for Deron/Korver/Williams bench

The only real advantage they have is (obviously) Lebron, but we have a ton of wings we can throw at him (Crowder, Smart, Green, Brown) at him to try to make his life a bit more difficult.  He'll have big nights no matter what you do, but if we can at least make things hard for the rest of their team then it puts a ton of pressure on Lebron to carry the load.

I still think the Cavs have the odds to win, but I don't think it'll be as easy as people thing.  I think Boston will make them fight very hard for every win, and if the Cavs don't hold together mentally I do think Boston is capable of upsetting them.

Great analysis

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2017, 02:25:08 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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I agree.

In fact, I prefer our chances against Cleveland over our chances against Washington, in all honesty.

The worst possible matchup for Boston is a team with:

1) A strong two-way PG (who can slow down Thomas with single coverage, while also hurting us with their own scoring)

2) A big and skilled frontcourt that is strong on the boards and can also score

3) A second scoring guard that can pressure our defence, so we can't just throw Thomas on guard #2 and hide his defensive limitations

Washington and Toronto (Lowry, Derozan, Valancunis/Ibaka) are maybe the only two teams in the entire Eastern Conference that offer all of that - and so I saw them as our hardest matchups if we were to come against them.

Looking at the Cavs however:

1) Kyrie cannot defend Thomas any better than Thomas can defend Kyrie
2) Horford matches up very well with Kevin Love in pretty much every criteria
3) Boston can switch Bradley on Kyrie defensively, and force JR Smith to make them pay
4) Tristan Thompson is pretty much zero offensive threat, so Amir/Olynyk can take him fine
5) Olynyk/Smart/Brown/Green/Rozier are more then a match for Deron/Korver/Williams bench

The only real advantage they have is (obviously) Lebron, but we have a ton of wings we can throw at him (Crowder, Smart, Green, Brown) at him to try to make his life a bit more difficult.  He'll have big nights no matter what you do, but if we can at least make things hard for the rest of their team then it puts a ton of pressure on Lebron to carry the load.

I still think the Cavs have the odds to win, but I don't think it'll be as easy as people thing.  I think Boston will make them fight very hard for every win, and if the Cavs don't hold together mentally I do think Boston is capable of upsetting them.

The worst possible matchup for Boston is a team with LeBron that has two additional all-stars and a solid group of vets.

I think LeBron has proved this time and again.

I hate the guy, but come on, he nearly beat the warriors with a crippled tem full of scrubs a couple years back.

This year his team is healthy and loaded.

This is a FAR greater challenge than Washington.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #13 on: May 16, 2017, 02:43:07 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Hell, even the OP is hedging.  You say people are being too pessimistic about beating the Cavs, then the best you can muster is "all of this isn't saying that I think the Celtics will necessarily win the series". 

There is almost no chance we beat the Cavs.  That's not pessimistic, that's realistic.  Are people being too pessimistic that we can win a game or maybe even two?  That's seems to be the argument you are making, not that we actually have a real chance of beating them.

Perhaps you should read the post again.

I never said people are pessimistic for thinking Cleveland is the favorite to win. That's a completely rational and correct viewpoint.

I said at the beginning of the post that I was referring specifically to those saying we're going to be swept or not give them a challenge. That's a completely different argument than what you're implying that I said, and it's s completely rational and valid argument.
Recovering Joe Skeptic, but inching towards a relapse.

Re: People are too pessimistic regarding our chances against the Cavs
« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2017, 02:52:26 PM »

Offline jpotter33

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Can't blame anyone for being pessimistic, given how the Cavs waltzed into the Garden the last time these two played in the regular season and pretty much wiped the floor with the Celtics ... while in autopilot mode. The proof (that you can ball with the big boys) is in the pudding.

I mean, that game was clearly the outlier, though. Every other game was decided by 6 points or less.

And you could tell the C's didn't show up to play in the first 5 minutes of that game. For whatever season, that was just one of those games that they didn't show up to play and looked afraid.

Furthermore, the Cavs did not even really play well that game; we literally just played that bad. Their defense was still really, reallly bad, and we got plenty of really good looks that we just didn't hit. But our defense was just as bad that game, and they took advantage.

I really think people are greatly overrating the Cavs based on that one game and then sweeping the playoffs so far. But I think that's fallacious. They still have a terrible D that they haven't figured out, and the Raptors ultimately just folded to them, similar to the C's in that last game.

People are going to be surprised this series. We match up much better with them than people realize. Further, we're going to combine Indy's playoff offensive efficiency with a much, much greater defensive efficiency (3rd best in the playoffs), which is going to considerably close the gap between us.
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