Taking a look at the Bucks, and how loose they might be with their retired jersey standards:They last retired Bob Dandridge in 2015. He was part of their '71 title team and spent 9 years there and was a 3x All Star with them. Before that it was Kareem in '93. Bob Lanier probably has the weakest resume, 278 regular season and 45 post season games, and some unremarkable stats (13.5/6/3 and 15/7.6/3.5 in regular season and post season).
Now think about this
Glenn Robinson spent 8 seasons with the Bucks, and avg 20.7/6.1/2.7 while a 2x All-Star
Ray Allen spent 6 1/2 seasons with the Bucks, and avg 19.6/4.6/3.8 while a 3x All-Star
Robinson retired in 2005 and still doesn't have his jersey retired, can't see them retiring Ray's before his. If they retire these guys at all, it's going to be one of those 20+ years in the future type things.
For the Sonics/Thunder:
The Thunder left all the Sonic trophies and banners in Seattle, they're basically 2 completely separate franchises, so no way they retire Ray's number.
The Sonics on the other hand, well if Seattle ever gets another team, I'm sure they'll retire some old jerseys, but Ray would definitely be behind Payton and Kemp, and probably even Schrempf (6 seasons, 2x All-Star, 52 playoff games, compared to Ray's 4 1/2 seasons, 4x All Star, 11 playoff games).
We all know Boston is very generous with retired jerseys and I could have sworn Riley promised to retire Ray's jersey if he went to Miami (but can't seem to find any mention of it now). So I think it comes down to Boston and/or Miami. I could see either of them doing it or not doing it, but if either do I think it will be far off into the future.
Has there ever been a first ballot Hall of Famer without his number retired somewhere?
Gary Payton