Who needs Butler or George...we got Jaylen!

[A Future of Stevens]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

His form looks really good and he's not taking bad shots now (which affected his numbers early on). No reason to think he can't keep knocking down open looks like he has been. Sure, he'll have cold streaks from outside.

I'm surprised by his shooting just based on the scouting report of him in college as a non-shooter. But everything I've seen of him this year indicates he can be a plus shooter in the league. What's with his free throws, though?

That's the thing, his free throw numbers are terrible yet he's making a ridiculously high percentage from three.  I accept that he's gotten better at shooting, but you have to assume that one of those numbers is an aberration and I don't think it's the free throws.

Considering he is shooting 69.9% on the season from the FT line, that isn't awful. I mean if Lonzo Ball with a busted shot can be considered a 3pt sniper because of his elite 3pt% in college even though his FT% is 66, I think Jaylen can get a pass.

[oldtype]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

His form looks really good and he's not taking bad shots now (which affected his numbers early on). No reason to think he can't keep knocking down open looks like he has been. Sure, he'll have cold streaks from outside.

I'm surprised by his shooting just based on the scouting report of him in college as a non-shooter. But everything I've seen of him this year indicates he can be a plus shooter in the league. What's with his free throws, though?

That's the thing, his free throw numbers are terrible yet he's making a ridiculously high percentage from three.  I accept that he's gotten better at shooting, but you have to assume that one of those numbers is an aberration and I don't think it's the free throws.

Considering he is shooting 69.9% on the season from the FT line, that isn't awful. I mean if Lonzo Ball with a busted shot can be considered a 3pt sniper because of his elite 3pt% in college even though his FT% is 66, I think Jaylen can get a pass.

Lots of people have concerns about how real Lonzo's shot is for precisely that reason.  (That and his odd shooting form.)

[saltlover]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

[oldtype]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

You can take it up to 72.5% and there are still only about 82 instances.  70% or 72.5% or whatever is just an arbitrary threshold, but it's pretty clear there's a strong correlation between FT% and 3P%.

[oldtype]

Even ignoring FT% for a moment, he's gone from shooting 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes over the season to 60%(!) on catch-and-shoot threes in the past five games.  That just can't possibly be real.

[A Future of Stevens]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

His form looks really good and he's not taking bad shots now (which affected his numbers early on). No reason to think he can't keep knocking down open looks like he has been. Sure, he'll have cold streaks from outside.

I'm surprised by his shooting just based on the scouting report of him in college as a non-shooter. But everything I've seen of him this year indicates he can be a plus shooter in the league. What's with his free throws, though?

That's the thing, his free throw numbers are terrible yet he's making a ridiculously high percentage from three.  I accept that he's gotten better at shooting, but you have to assume that one of those numbers is an aberration and I don't think it's the free throws.

Considering he is shooting 69.9% on the season from the FT line, that isn't awful. I mean if Lonzo Ball with a busted shot can be considered a 3pt sniper because of his elite 3pt% in college even though his FT% is 66, I think Jaylen can get a pass.

Lots of people have concerns about how real Lonzo's shot is for precisely that reason.  (That and his odd shooting form.)

That is the point I am driving home. I agree that Jaylen will regress towards the norm with his 3p%, but since his form is great, I would imagine he is going to progress nicely as a shooter.

[gift]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

You can take it up to 72.5% and there are still only about 82 instances.  70% or 72.5% or whatever is just an arbitrary threshold, but it's pretty clear there's a strong correlation between FT% and 3P%.

In the new NBA, players are shooting a higher percentage of threes. So Jaylen has taken 79 threes and 93 free throws. There's not much of a sample size difference between the two. In the past I think free throws have been used as an "extension" of the sample size for threes because three point sample sizes were relatively small. So we looked for any other indicator we could besides "form looks good". I don't think that's the case any more now that there are larger sample sizes of threes to look at.

Not that his three point shots represent a large sample size, but it's in the same neighborhood as his free throw attempts. So I think it's about an equal chance that he progresses is in his free throw shooting as regresses in his three point shooting.

[oldtype]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

You can take it up to 72.5% and there are still only about 82 instances.  70% or 72.5% or whatever is just an arbitrary threshold, but it's pretty clear there's a strong correlation between FT% and 3P%.

In the new NBA, players are shooting a higher percentage of threes. So Jaylen has taken 79 threes and 93 free throws. There's not much of a sample size difference between the two. In the past I think free throws have been used as an "extension" of the sample size for threes because three point sample sizes were relatively small. So we looked for any other indicator we could besides "form looks good". I don't think that's the case any more now that there are larger sample sizes of threes to look at.

Not that his three point shots represent a large sample size, but it's in the same neighborhood as his free throw attempts. So I think it's about an equal chance that he progresses is in his free throw shooting as regresses in his three point shooting.

I'm sure he'll progress in both going forward, I'm just saying that in the short term, his 3P% is probably going to come down to Earth very soon.

[gift]

Even ignoring FT% for a moment, he's gone from shooting 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes over the season to 60%(!) on catch-and-shoot threes in the past five games.  That just can't possibly be real.

Well, of course. But it's not like we're seeing an yearly 34.5% catch and shoot improve to 60%. We're seeing a rookie who is supposed to improve. It's not out of the realm to expect that he will ultimately end up better than a 34.5% catch and shooter (though not 60% either).

[gift]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

You can take it up to 72.5% and there are still only about 82 instances.  70% or 72.5% or whatever is just an arbitrary threshold, but it's pretty clear there's a strong correlation between FT% and 3P%.

In the new NBA, players are shooting a higher percentage of threes. So Jaylen has taken 79 threes and 93 free throws. There's not much of a sample size difference between the two. In the past I think free throws have been used as an "extension" of the sample size for threes because three point sample sizes were relatively small. So we looked for any other indicator we could besides "form looks good". I don't think that's the case any more now that there are larger sample sizes of threes to look at.

Not that his three point shots represent a large sample size, but it's in the same neighborhood as his free throw attempts. So I think it's about an equal chance that he progresses is in his free throw shooting as regresses in his three point shooting.

I'm sure he'll progress in both going forward, I'm just saying that in the short term, his 3P% is probably going to come down to Earth very soon.

Agreed. I just don't think it's concerning.

[oldtype]

I'm almost a bit concerned about how good his shooting numbers have been lately.  This efficiency is clearly not sustainable and we should temper our expectations and be accepting when he inevitably goes into a shooting slump instead of grumbling about how he's "regressed."

I'd have to look up the stats to back it up but I believe a lot of the shots he is taking are open. If that is the case I don't expect to see a ton of regression

He's a guy who's supposed to miss wide open threes though (cf. free throws).  I think we have to anticipate at least a little bit of regression.

I don't know that he's supposed to miss open jump shots though. I get that people use FT% as an indicator for 3P% potential. But they are very different shots. I think the link is just that good shooters tend to be good at both, though there are exceptions.

Look at Avery Bradley as a guy with relatively low FT% with good 3P%. But maybe he is supposed to regress too. I actually think Bradley is just one of those guys who has a (relative) problem with free throws for some reason. I don't expect a ton of regression in his three point shooting (maybe some).

Difference here is that Avery's FT% is merely "not great (76%)"  Jaylen's FT% is bad (69%). 

FT% and 3P% are not equal, but they are highly correlated. In the entire history of the NBA, only 47 times has a player averaged better than 35% 3P% while shooting less than 70% at the line. 

Now there are some utter weirdo numbers on that list (did you know: Rodney Rodgers shot 64% form the line and 44%(!) from three in 2000), but for the most part you can't be a league average three point shooter while being a poor free throw shooter.

There's a little bit of randomness baked in here.  Firstly, Brown is shooting 69.9% from the line, which is essentially the 70% threshold you're looking for, because you like round numbers.  Secondly, Brown has only attempted 93 free throws on the season, which means a bad game or two can affect his numbers.  As recently as Sunday during shoot-arounds, he was shooting 72.4% from the line.  Essentially you're saying that before Sunday we shouldn't have been worried, but today we should?

You can take it up to 72.5% and there are still only about 82 instances.  70% or 72.5% or whatever is just an arbitrary threshold, but it's pretty clear there's a strong correlation between FT% and 3P%.

In the new NBA, players are shooting a higher percentage of threes. So Jaylen has taken 79 threes and 93 free throws. There's not much of a sample size difference between the two. In the past I think free throws have been used as an "extension" of the sample size for threes because three point sample sizes were relatively small. So we looked for any other indicator we could besides "form looks good". I don't think that's the case any more now that there are larger sample sizes of threes to look at.

Not that his three point shots represent a large sample size, but it's in the same neighborhood as his free throw attempts. So I think it's about an equal chance that he progresses is in his free throw shooting as regresses in his three point shooting.

I'm sure he'll progress in both going forward, I'm just saying that in the short term, his 3P% is probably going to come down to Earth very soon.

Agreed. I just don't think it's concerning.

It's not, was mostly talking to people who think that his shooting is fixed now.  Still has a looooong way to go.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Agreed...but we could have Both Jaylen and Butler by draft night.

At the expense of Bradley, Fultz/Ball/Jackson and possibly Crowder or Smart.

NO THANK YOU.

Nah---not on Draft night...we get the #1 pick...Price for Butler or even George comes down greatly.

Bradley/Zeller/Top 2 Pick gets you Butler on draft night.

[mctyson]

And soon to be Jaylen and Fultz or Jackson.

We have the #3 pick from last year on our roster and he is starting to look like a guy who deserved to be picked at worst #3. 

It is amazing to me how much Celtics fans overlook that, and then overlook the fact that we might add the #1 pick along side of him, and then possibly add another top-5 pick next to them.  And these guys will all be paired with Marcus Smart, the #6 pick from his draft.

Danny might have a starting 5 in a few years that consists of all top-10 draft picks, after the team competes for an NBA title. Think about that.

[otherdave]

Jaylen's college FT % was 65.4%, so he is improving from last year (in everything really).

If he shooting % becomes a concern we could always hire Mark Price ( or someone like him )  for  a couple of weeks this summer.

I am really really enjoying watching his growth from month to month.  As he continues to learn I can see him becoming a master at the old 3 point play (and one), ala Paul Pierce or Adrian Dantley.

[rollie mass]

remember he worked out with butler,the kid is just 20 -he was brought along properly and had marcus and green and rozier in the gym-
-with veteran leadership and brad
maybe its jaylen they don't want to mess with as the result of a bad trade--the team has good chemistry
jaylem is not rushing his threes  and is learning at the rim-confidence goes a long way-his splitting two players and crossing over in paint to a  soft finger roll-his pullup at foul line ,his baseline moves to a turnaround,his post up baseline reverses have had me enthralled
he seems so much quicker and fresh at the moment-