Author Topic: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler  (Read 25479 times)

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Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #75 on: February 02, 2017, 10:23:43 AM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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...  Yes, Butler would immediately be our 2nd option on offense, but in light of what Thomas has been doing for this team offensively, do we need that?  You're basically saying we need Butler to have another go-to scorer at the end of games.  But considering Thomas has been otherworldly and arguably the best late game "go-to" scorer in the league this season (while doing it efficiently), what's the benefit of cutting Thomas late-game scoring efforts in half to put the ball in Butler's hands (who may or may not be able to score as efficiently)?   Scoring isn't our issue this season.   Thomas is surrounded by highly efficient shooters and it's working.   I seriously don't think cutting back Thomas' role to add another go-to scorer is going to do much for us. 

It's conventional wisdom that you need a "big three" - relying on just one or even two guys to create shots and score for you has generally proven less reliable, especially come playoff time, and most especially for winning it all. It's a long season. What if your number one guy gets hurt? What if you rely too much on him? – in the playoffs, defenses tighten up, and they can take away your first and second options. It's a lot harder to take away three.

It should be apparent that the scoring wing is the perfect complement to the scoring point; and if your third guy is a center, so much the better. Far from "cutting back Thomas's role", by getting a guy like Butler, you make his job a lot easier. In fact, that is exactly what happened when Al Horford came along.

One thing Boston does NOT do well is get to the line, even though Isaiah does - .425 free throw rate... But Butler blows him out of the water, at .572; Boston would get in the penalty quick, and every player would benefit. AND he carries his substantial scoring load with an extraordinarily low turnover rate - a great virtue that most casual fans don't value.

 
I think we'd gain far more by having a star big than we'd ever get by swapping Jae or Bradley for Butler.   

The more logical swap would be Jaylen Brown for Butler, since they're the same kind of player.

A separate question is: does Brown eventually give you what Butler does, making a trade for Butler superfluous? Not this season, it is safe to say; but we're likely to see a big jump in Year Two. A triple threat who's also a wing stopper - that's enticing, and it looks very much in play.

I guess the bottom line is that if I were forced to make a trade, I'd far rather acquire Carmelo Anthony on a bargain than give up a single Brooklyn pick for Jimmy Butler.

The beauty of their situation is that Boston is not forced to make a trade.

You seem to have changed the parameters here, since now you are talking about a Brooklyn pick instead of an AB/Crowder trade; but I can't agree about Carmelo at any price - just a bad fit, and you'd have to pay him all that money.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2017, 10:38:51 AM by ThePaintedArea »

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #76 on: February 02, 2017, 05:09:50 PM »

Offline mctyson

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I agree with LarBrd 33 - didn't even need to read the thread.

Jeff Clark's trade idea on the homepage is preposterous.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #77 on: February 02, 2017, 05:32:56 PM »

Offline byennie

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Co-sign. BKN 17 is reserved for a superstar that puts you over the top, which likely doesn't exist. Bradley and Crowder are both within range of Butler's value, albeit you won't see either one put up 40 or 50 points on a big night. They are both good defenders and better outside shooters than Butler.

That said, we should be offering a deal built around Bradley. He's going to need to be paid as much or more than Butler in 18/19. Chicago would be crazy not to make the swap if they can pick up another asset, as they'd be going into next summer with triple-max money to spend, and probably a better draft pick on top.

I'd do Bradley, Zeller and MEM19. Maybe sweeten with one more prospect, like Rozier or Yabusele, or one of our own future 1sts. They'll say no for PR reasons.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #78 on: February 02, 2017, 05:42:10 PM »

Offline byennie

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He's not a consensus top ten player but I'd say he's in the argument for being in the tier after Lebron/Curry/Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Kawhi.  We'd call these guys "Top 5." 

"Top 10" is just shorthand for guys who are a bit worse than those but substantially better than "Top 20" players like Isaiah Thomas, Blake Griffin, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward etc. 

You don't actually count to 5, 10, or 20, the lists are fuzzy and subjective, so that would be pointless.  It's better to think in terms of tiers.

I understand your point, but did you see my list? He's on the IT tier lol. That's a huge diff then calling him a top ten player. You should only trade your Brooklyn pick for an Anthony Davis like player imo.

In that case I think you underrate him substantially.  He's the second best player in the Eastern Conference.
This. You could argue Paul George or Giannis above him, but the worst you could reasonable rate the guy is 4th in the East, IMO.

First of all, when did "in the East" become a useful metric? Last time I checked we play against the whole league.

Secondly, 4th in the east at worst?

Lebron
Giannis
Anthony Davis
Kyle Lowry
DeMar DeRozan
Paul George
Isaiah Thomas
John Wall
Joel Embiid
Kemba Walker

That's 10 guys on 15 teams that are around or above his level, and leaves out some pretty good players like Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic, etc that are maybe a step below.

Then there's the whole Western Conference.

He's a good player, but it takes a lot of spin to make him 4th best anything in the NBA.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #79 on: February 02, 2017, 06:05:35 PM »

Offline aingeforthree

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Co-sign. BKN 17 is reserved for a superstar that puts you over the top, which likely doesn't exist. Bradley and Crowder are both within range of Butler's value, albeit you won't see either one put up 40 or 50 points on a big night. They are both good defenders and better outside shooters than Butler.

That said, we should be offering a deal built around Bradley. He's going to need to be paid as much or more than Butler in 18/19. Chicago would be crazy not to make the swap if they can pick up another asset, as they'd be going into next summer with triple-max money to spend, and probably a better draft pick on top.

I'd do Bradley, Zeller and MEM19. Maybe sweeten with one more prospect, like Rozier or Yabusele, or one of our own future 1sts. They'll say no for PR reasons.

I'm with you. I think Rozier has to be included some way if it's Chicago. They were rumored to be extremely high on Rozier during that draft. Bradley, Rozier, Boston 18', & Brooklyn 18'.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #80 on: February 02, 2017, 10:47:16 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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He's not a consensus top ten player but I'd say he's in the argument for being in the tier after Lebron/Curry/Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Kawhi.  We'd call these guys "Top 5." 

"Top 10" is just shorthand for guys who are a bit worse than those but substantially better than "Top 20" players like Isaiah Thomas, Blake Griffin, Klay Thompson, Gordon Hayward etc. 

You don't actually count to 5, 10, or 20, the lists are fuzzy and subjective, so that would be pointless.  It's better to think in terms of tiers.

I understand your point, but did you see my list? He's on the IT tier lol. That's a huge diff then calling him a top ten player. You should only trade your Brooklyn pick for an Anthony Davis like player imo.

In that case I think you underrate him substantially.  He's the second best player in the Eastern Conference.
This. You could argue Paul George or Giannis above him, but the worst you could reasonable rate the guy is 4th in the East, IMO.

First of all, when did "in the East" become a useful metric? Last time I checked we play against the whole league.

Secondly, 4th in the east at worst?

Lebron
Giannis
Anthony Davis
Kyle Lowry
DeMar DeRozan
Paul George
Isaiah Thomas
John Wall
Joel Embiid
Kemba Walker

That's 10 guys on 15 teams that are around or above his level, and leaves out some pretty good players like Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Dwight Howard, Hassan Whiteside, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic, etc that are maybe a step below.

Then there's the whole Western Conference.

He's a good player, but it takes a lot of spin to make him 4th best anything in the NBA.

With respect, Anthony Davis is in the West, not the East.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #81 on: February 02, 2017, 10:50:50 PM »

Offline byennie

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With respect, Anthony Davis is in the West, not the East.

Yup. Pelicans brain freeze. I think my point stands, though... top 4 at worst is a pretty big spin job.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #82 on: February 02, 2017, 11:25:08 PM »

Offline inverselock

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I get Butler isn't a home run.    Is the Brooklyn pick a guaranteed home run?   Draft lottery and picks have there risks too.   No sure thing.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #83 on: February 03, 2017, 12:28:51 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Lol @ Jimmy Freaking Butler as a top ten player. Everyone talks about his elite D, but I see him getting burned by great SG/SF's all the time...

My top ten:
Durant
Lebron
Curry
Westbrook
Irving
Marc Gasol
Chris Paul
Kwai Leonard
James Harden
Anthony Davis

That's ten just on the top of my head. Here is more.

Joel Embiid is better.
I'd rather have Towns too
IMO Paul George since he's taken a scrub team to the ECF twice. Look at the players on his team's career now.
Blake Griffin is better.
How about Demarcus Cousins.

I can keep going....

Embiid is not better.
Towns is not better.
George is debatable, but id say he's not not better
Griffin isn't better

Cousins is better.

Marc Gasol is not even a threat of making the top 20

Butler is a former multi-time all defensive Teamer whos averaging 25 PPG,  and who has put uo strong rebound and assist numbers for a couple of years now.

And he's gotten better every year.

As a player id probably prefer Melo just because I think he fits the team better and is more of a difference maker come playoff time - but objectively is say Butler is the better of the two and is probably the 4th best SF after Lebron, KD and Kawhi.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #84 on: February 03, 2017, 12:37:50 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I get Butler isn't a home run.    Is the Brooklyn pick a guaranteed home run?   Draft lottery and picks have there risks too.   No sure thing.

Draft lottery has massive risks, and passing off trades for proven stars because you want to gamble on a pick that's position hasn't even been confirmed yet...is a move that had a very,  very high probability of making you want to kick yourself really hard a couple of years from now when they pick potentially becomes a Victor Oladipo, Derrick Williams, Michael Kidd Gchrist or Otto Porter.

Imagine if you had a chance to trade for your pick today for Jimmy Butler and you turned it down - then the pick landed 3rd and the giy you drafted ended up becoming MKG.

I can't think of many people who wouldn't kick themselves.

So I agree with you completely,  I'd trade our pick for Butler in a heartbeat.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #85 on: February 03, 2017, 01:12:27 AM »

Offline Geo123

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I get Butler isn't a home run.    Is the Brooklyn pick a guaranteed home run?   Draft lottery and picks have there risks too.   No sure thing.

Butler IS a home run!  A 2 way player who's an all star on a reasonable contract!!!

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #86 on: February 03, 2017, 01:57:56 AM »

Offline inverselock

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Doesn't get the C's over Cleveland or GSW is what I meant.    But what single player can?   Agreed with you about Butler.   

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #87 on: February 03, 2017, 02:25:17 AM »

Offline Smartacus

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Lol @ Jimmy Freaking Butler as a top ten player. Everyone talks about his elite D, but I see him getting burned by great SG/SF's all the time...

My top ten:
Durant
Lebron
Curry
Westbrook
Irving
Marc Gasol
Chris Paul
Kwai Leonard
James Harden
Anthony Davis

That's ten just on the top of my head. Here is more.

Joel Embiid is better.
I'd rather have Towns too
IMO Paul George since he's taken a scrub team to the ECF twice. Look at the players on his team's career now.
Blake Griffin is better.
How about Demarcus Cousins.

I can keep going....

Embiid is not better.
Towns is not better.
George is debatable, but id say he's not not better
Griffin isn't better

Cousins is better.

Marc Gasol is not even a threat of making the top 20

Butler is a former multi-time all defensive Teamer whos averaging 25 PPG,  and who has put uo strong rebound and assist numbers for a couple of years now.

And he's gotten better every year.

As a player id probably prefer Melo just because I think he fits the team better and is more of a difference maker come playoff time - but objectively is say Butler is the better of the two and is probably the 4th best SF after Lebron, KD and Kawhi.

I know I felt the same way Crimson it's strange. If I was making a list of top players Jimmy Butler would absolutely be higher than Melo by a significant margin. For some reason Jimmy feels like more of what we already have and Melo feels like he could put us in a different class.

Like I'm by no means the biggest Crowder fan but his output is fine for the IT show. Just feel like any offense Butler adds would draw from Isaiah's production. Melo would find shots (Putbacks, post ups, rip throughs ETC) that aren't currently being taken. Butler takes a lot of the same shots as IT.

Maybe it's just semantics but I couldn't separate Butler from Crowder in the same way I could with Melo, especially considering acquiring Melo would probably still mean keeping Crowder, where Crowder's inclusion in a deal for Butler was apparently a hangup last time we talked about it with the Bulls.

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #88 on: February 03, 2017, 03:27:22 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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I'm with you. I think Rozier has to be included some way if it's Chicago. They were rumored to be extremely high on Rozier during that draft. Bradley, Rozier, Boston 18', & Brooklyn 18'.

That's probably close to what it would take to land Butler.

Now what's the package we offer to lure Cousins from the Kings?

Imagine a team of:

IT
Butler
Crowder
Horford
Cousins

Now that is a true SUPER TEAM!

Re: The 2017 Brooklyn pick alone is an overpay for Jimmy Butler
« Reply #89 on: February 03, 2017, 03:38:18 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Lol @ Jimmy Freaking Butler as a top ten player. Everyone talks about his elite D, but I see him getting burned by great SG/SF's all the time...

My top ten:
Durant
Lebron
Curry
Westbrook
Irving
Marc Gasol
Chris Paul
Kwai Leonard
James Harden
Anthony Davis

That's ten just on the top of my head. Here is more.

Joel Embiid is better.
I'd rather have Towns too
IMO Paul George since he's taken a scrub team to the ECF twice. Look at the players on his team's career now.
Blake Griffin is better.
How about Demarcus Cousins.

I can keep going....

Embiid is not better.
Towns is not better.
George is debatable, but id say he's not not better
Griffin isn't better

Cousins is better.

Marc Gasol is not even a threat of making the top 20

Butler is a former multi-time all defensive Teamer whos averaging 25 PPG,  and who has put uo strong rebound and assist numbers for a couple of years now.

And he's gotten better every year.

As a player id probably prefer Melo just because I think he fits the team better and is more of a difference maker come playoff time - but objectively is say Butler is the better of the two and is probably the 4th best SF after Lebron, KD and Kawhi.

I know I felt the same way Crimson it's strange. If I was making a list of top players Jimmy Butler would absolutely be higher than Melo by a significant margin. For some reason Jimmy feels like more of what we already have and Melo feels like he could put us in a different class.

Like I'm by no means the biggest Crowder fan but his output is fine for the IT show. Just feel like any offense Butler adds would draw from Isaiah's production. Melo would find shots (Putbacks, post ups, rip throughs ETC) that aren't currently being taken. Butler takes a lot of the same shots as IT.

Maybe it's just semantics but I couldn't separate Butler from Crowder in the same way I could with Melo, especially considering acquiring Melo would probably still mean keeping Crowder, where Crowder's inclusion in a deal for Butler was apparently a hangup last time we talked about it with the Bulls.

The way I look at it is that Jimmy Butler is a very good offensive player, and a very good defensive player, and is above average at pretty much all other aspects of the game.   I think hed add a significant number of wins to any regular season team for those reasons...but his offensive game is still quite two dimensional - he's generally going to get his points from midrange,  or by attacking the basket.   If you take those parts of his game away some how,  he becomes much less effective.   I mean he can still score in other ways,  but not in a dominant fashion.   In the playoffs you play 4-7 games against the same team   You can turn your entire focus on game planning for that one team, and very good scorers tend to be easier to shut down once a team spends a week or two focusing on how to do it.

Carmelo Anthony is a poor defender,  but he is an elite offensive player.   His offensive game quite literally is flawless.  There is no means of scoring that Carmelo is not a master of.  You can't game plan against him,  period.  You can't try to stop him from getting the low he likes,  because there is no look he DOESN'T like.  You can force him to take a fadeaway three from 5 feet outside the 3pt line,  with a hand in his face,  and to Carmelo that is a regular jump shot.   Guys like that - you can't defend then.   You just have to force them to take the hardest shot possible and pray they aren't feeling it.   It was the same with Paul Pierce and the same with Kobe - when those guys were hot they were undefendable.

Melo can finish a game with 20 free throws just as easily as he can finish a game with 8 three pointers,  he's an offensive monster.

And when you get to the playoffs,  and teams are game planning on against you for 2 weeks or 3 weeks, the Ra or if the really good offensive players struggle.   Guys like Demar DeRozan, Derek Rose (in his prime) - these guys struggle because they tend to score in one or two ways,  and once you learn how to take that away they fold.    Even Ray had some serious scoring drouts during his time here because at that point in his career he was mainly may atl three point shooter,  and if his outside shot wasn't falling you know he's going to struggle.

But when Melos jumper isn't falling you just set him up in the paint and post him up,  or you let him get to the basket.   He'll find a way.

Now you out Melo on a team that already has a 29PPG scorer,  and who's stopping him?   Teams are getting everything to stop Thomas.   They're throwing small forward at him to make it harder,  throwing traps at him,  throwing double teams at him.   They can't stop him.

With Melo out there you have TWO  guys on the court who ultimately cannot be defended...and the amount of attention those guys get worth make things so much easier for each other.

But the key fact that so many people are ignoring is that Isaiah is the best 4th quarter scorer in the league,  and Carmelo is one of the most clutch scorers in of this generation.   Two guys with ice in they're veins,  who have never seen a shot that they're scared to take    I dont care of you're the Cavs,  the Warriors, the Spurs,  or who you are.   No team in the world wants to face Isaiah and Carmelo in a 7 game series,  I assure you I'd that.

And when you're in the playoffs,  and you're 3-3, down by 12 with 8 minutes left in the fourth...and Carnelo goes off for 20 points in 8 minutes,  and you win the game...

At that point nobody cares how bad Carmelos defence is - you'll all be worshipping him.

I know because thats how I often felt with Pierce.  He was so turnover prone and need often try to hard and make bad plays,  and i would get infuriated.   Then need score 13 points in 3 minutes and we'd win the game - and none of that stuff mattered anymore.

Plus I don't care what anybody says, ive watched Carmelo play and he plays HARD.   He's not like LeBron, who half the time looks like he's C I asting.  Melo plays his butt off and plays with 100% effort every night on the offensive end,  and you can see he genuinely hates losing with a passion.   He plays with emotion and he has that "killer instinct" that so many of today's players lack.   

Does he have flaws in his game?  If course he does.   But he is elite at what he does,  and he'll never back down,  and he has the heart of a winner.

Butler is tough,  he's physical,  and he's such a great all round pause.   But he's defendable.  He's stoppable.  Melo isn't.

Anotger factor that is an advantage for Carmelo is age.  What,  age?!?!?   Yes. 

Butler is young.  He's 27.  He's on a long term contract. He's mind is going to be on building his legacy,  making all star teams,  winning scoring titles,  being recognised for his individual greatness.   He doesn't need to win a ring now.  I mean he's a great competitor and you know he wants success badly,  but he's always got next year.

For Melo,  he's 32.  He's got no ring,  and he's got 3 years left of star level production before he starts fading.   If he is going to win a championship,  its got to be now.   So you can be very sure that he is Hungry.  Real hungry.   He's said hes hesitant to wave his no trade clause because of having to move his family - which means if he agrees to waive that clause,  you KNOW he's got one thing,  and one thing only,  on his mind - a championship.

Would Pierce,  Ray and KG habe won the title in 08 if they joined together when they were younger?  Probably not, and they've even admitted to that themselves.   They admitted they were now about individuals accolades when younger.   But in 08 they were around their 30a and they were hungry, and they wanted to win no matter what personal sacrifices it took.

People see agree as a negative,  but if you want to win a title it could be the biggest positive of them all.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2017, 03:48:21 AM by crimson_stallion »