The index for real improvement is 60 wins. That's the contention level.
I don't see 60 wins for this team unless they make a major FA signing. I think a Noel might move them into the mid-50s if they don't have to give up any starters for him.
Right now, they are still a 50 win team--because they've lost the depth they had in previous years. They lose a lot when one of their starters goes down.