He won't win, but if he finishes in the top 5 that is a real accomplishment. That part of the list is generally populated by hall of fame level players.
I think the most likely outcome is somewhere in the 7-10 range. I expect that top 3 to hold in some order, followed in some order by Kawhi, Butler, Steph, Giannis and KD.
Then there's another tier (to me) with A. Davis, Boogie, DeRozan, IT and probably a few others I'm forgetting. But among those guys IT has the best combo of being on a good team and having a breakout year.