Jae Crowder is overrated

[WolfofCausewayStreet]

1) His skin is thin. Gets offended by the slightest things and is not very professional on occasion. He could go off the boil any moment.

2) His defense is weaker. Is slower off of picks, has regressed as a man to man defender.

3) Literally can't do anything besides shoot spot up threes this year. He's basically Jason Kapono.

4) If he's not found open, he's essentially a black hole on offense (especially in our off the dribble, extra pass offensive philosophy)

5) One would think that his 3pt percentage is an anomaly this season. He's said that he's not changed any mechanics or made any changes. Every time he shoots a three, his balance is different. Sometimes he sticks his leg out. Sometimes he steps both feet into it, sometimes he jumps straight up. I think hes more of a 35-37% 3pt shooter and I don't think he can maintain 42% going forward, imo. If that happens, or he regresses even more he's essentially useless. A poor man's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.


I say trade him when people think his value is "high." No one knows what Hayward will do in FA. I say package him for Hayward, Jabari, etc. Hayward's game would age extremely well and his quality could be top notch even into 32-33. Jabari is so young and by the time he is 25-27 we could be real contenders.

[saltlover]

Hot takes are overrated.

[Jon]

Does he overrate himself? Maybe. The goal for this team should be to get him to the bench. But as a super sub in the mold James Posey, I think he could be underrated, particularly since he isn't making much more than Posey made nearly a decade ago.

[celticsclay]

Hot takes are overrated.

Lol. I don't think he is a star, but he certainly won't kill a team as a starter. You think he is way worse than Jr Smith for example?

[droopdog7]

Before we talk about overrated or underrated, you need to know what he is rated in the first place.  If you think he is a borderline star or are not willing to include Crowder in trades for all-stars (e.g., Butler) along with other valuable assets, then you are likely overrating him.

Crowder is a nice, solid player.  Will never be an all-star but can definitely help a contender.  He's also on a nice contract.  But he's upgrade-able. 

[Denis998]

I would argue stats, but who care about those kind of things right?

[Big333223]

This season, he's the team's most efficient 3 point shooter at .423. He's also the teams most efficient finisher, as he shoots an ungodly .810 within 3 feet of the basket. It's also true that most of his shots are assisted, which means he's not much of a creator but it also means he's not taking up possessions just for himself. He's playing within the team's system and is the most efficient player on the team in doing that.

The result? He's second on the team in Offensive Win Shares and third in Defensive Win Shares. He's also third on the team in VORP. When he's on the court, the team is +7.9 and when he's not the team is -2.7.

No one is claiming he's an all star this year, but he's a [dang] good SF. So no, I don't think he's overrated at all.

[BitterJim]

1) His skin is thin. Gets offended by the slightest things and is not very professional on occasion. He could go off the boil any moment.

This has nothing to do with basketball, so I don't see how it's relevant

2) His defense is weaker. Is slower off of picks, has regressed as a man to man defender.

Our whole defense has regressed. Even AB is looking like a worse man-on-man defender this year.  It's hard to really say this year whether a player's defense has actually regressed, or if the team defense is just making them look worse, but Crowder is still a very good defender, probably just outside of the top 5 at the position (which is pretty stacked, with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguadola, and Lebron James)

3) Literally can't do anything besides shoot spot up threes this year. He's basically Jason Kapono.

He's shooting 54.2% on 2 pointers this year, including a ridiculous 81% from within 3 feet.  I don't know what else you expect from him

4) If he's not found open, he's essentially a black hole on offense (especially in our off the dribble, extra pass offensive philosophy)

He's averaging a career high 2.3 assists per game this year, 16th among small forwards.  Considering how little he has the ball in his hands, that's actually pretty good

5) One would think that his 3pt percentage is an anomaly this season. He's said that he's not changed any mechanics or made any changes. Every time he shoots a three, his balance is different. Sometimes he sticks his leg out. Sometimes he steps both feet into it, sometimes he jumps straight up. I think hes more of a 35-37% 3pt shooter and I don't think he can maintain 42% going forward, imo. If that happens, or he regresses even more he's essentially useless. A poor man's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

...so one of the reasons you think he's overrated is because you think he's worse than he actually is?

I say trade him when people think his value is "high." No one knows what Hayward will do in FA. I say package him for Hayward, Jabari, etc. Hayward's game would age extremely well and his quality could be top notch even into 32-33. Jabari is so young and by the time he is 25-27 we could be real contenders.

Trading him for Hayward (who is going to be a FA this summer) would be a mistake. Don't trade good/great assets for a guy that doesn't make you a contender and that you could just sign in FA.  Jabari would be an interesting option, but there's no way Milwaukee makes him available.

It seems like the problem is you underrating him, not others overrating him

[lantinm]

I've been fighting the urge to start a thread like this about Crowder for weeks.  Before I start on my rant though, know that I watched Crowder since college and am fully aware of his strengths and weaknesses.  Here goes:

1. Granted, his shooting #'s are excellent this year.  I don't think anyone expected 48/42/88 from Jae.  However, he's basically become a spot-up shooter and more than half of his fg attempts are from deep.  I'm not sure if he's still hurt or something, but he never attacks the basket anymore or tries to post up a smaller defender.

2. He's lost a step defensively.  The previous poster noted that he's slower off of picks and has regressed as a man-to-man defender and I completely agree.  Again, is it the ankle or is he just not as focused on the defensive end as he once was?

3. With Jaylen waiting in the wings, I'm more than comfortable selling high and dealing Crowder.  Jaylen's ability to beat people off the bounce and create for others or get to the line is something that this offense could use more of.  Brown has also shown that he can make the spot-up three, is excellent in transition, and that he has the defensive chops to guard 3's and some 2's.

4. Jae's contract is a bargain and he should be packaged with other assets for a young big (think Noel, Nurkic, etc).

5. I understand that some think Jae is our vocal leader, but I personally think that Marcus Smart has assumed that role at this point.  I feel like Crowder has become entitled and has stopped playing with that reckless abandon (that he once showed) since he got paid.

[oldtype]

He's only "overrated" if you assume that his 3-point hot streak is temporary and his defensive lapse is permanent. 

More realistically, both will probably regress to the mean.  He's one of the best 3-D role players in the league on one of the NBA's top-five most ridiculous contracts.

[rollie mass]

 i think all these guys have realized that regular season is a long hall and the style they played  was causing to many violent injuries-
bradley achillies probably from the extra elevation in rebounding
the injuries to marcus and jay then avery in playoffs and then a repeat again this season
you fans are a tough lot to please-and isn't that the problem

[PhoSita]

He is taking a lot of outside jumpers but so long as he's hitting shots the way he is, I'm fine with it.  Once his jumper regresses to the mean, he will need to attack more.

His defense is fine, though he's not forcing turnovers at a crazy rate the way he did last year.  I'm OK with that.


Crowder is still a huge bargain, and the idea that we should sell high on him when our replacements are Gerald Green and Jaylen Brown is laughable. 


The way the league is now, every team needs a guy like Crowder.  Can guard 1-4 in a pinch, can hit outside shots, can finish in transition, can attack space in a straight line drive, and keeps the ball moving.  The Celts need more guys fitting that description, not fewer. 

Moreover, having a guy like that one such a cheap, long term contract is an enormous advantage in building a competitive team.  I really can't stress how valuable that is.  The Celts can have 3 guys on max deals and still afford an above average starter at a crucial position (3 and D wing) without having to spend more than $10 million a year.  That's "yuge" as our President Elect would say.

[oldtype]

He is taking a lot of outside jumpers but so long as he's hitting shots the way he is, I'm fine with it.  Once his jumper regresses to the mean, he will need to attack more.

It's also possible that he's taking more outside shots AND shooting a higher percentage because he's getting better looks.  Even last season I always got the impression that he preferred the jumper over driving if he had the choice.

[Kuberski33]

i think all these guys have realized that regular season is a long hall and the style they played causing to many violent injuries-
bradley achillies probably from the extra elevation in rebounding
the injuries to marcus and jay then avery in playoffs and then a repeat again this season
you fans are a tough lot to please-and isn't that the problem

No one ever talks about this.  Great point Rollie.  Guys that play hard more frequently than the average NBA player also get hurt more often than the average NBA player.  And you're right about the expectations surrounding Crowder.

He's a good player - good enough to start for a contending team.  Would you like a little more offensive talent in that position? Sure.  But you also have to look at the full picture.  I'd invest in getting the right big next to Horford before I worry about Jae - not to say I wouldn't trade him tomorrow if the right opportunity comes along.  But he's a guy you can win with.

[lantinm]

He is taking a lot of outside jumpers but so long as he's hitting shots the way he is, I'm fine with it.  Once his jumper regresses to the mean, he will need to attack more.

His defense is fine, though he's not forcing turnovers at a crazy rate the way he did last year.  I'm OK with that.


Crowder is still a huge bargain, and the idea that we should sell high on him when our replacements are Gerald Green and Jaylen Brown is laughable. 


The way the league is now, every team needs a guy like Crowder.  Can guard 1-4 in a pinch, can hit outside shots, can finish in transition, can attack space in a straight line drive, and keeps the ball moving.  The Celts need more guys fitting that description, not fewer. 

Moreover, having a guy like that one such a cheap, long term contract is an enormous advantage in building a competitive team.  I really can't stress how valuable that is.  The Celts can have 3 guys on max deals and still afford an above average starter at a crucial position (3 and D wing) without having to spend more than $10 million a year.  That's "yuge" as our President Elect would say.

I agree with most of your post, PhoSita, but the part where Green and Brown could not make up for Jae's production or presence is absurd.  We are not talking about replacing someone putting up 25/8/8 and playing stellar defense.  Heck, Gerald Green sometimes scores 13 pts (Jae's average) in 10 minutes of action.  Green's career shooting #'s are also on par with Crowder's as well.  Now granted, we might lose a little something defensively, but I've seen both Green and Brown engaged on the defensive end this year and Jaylen's athleticism gives him a higher ceiling defensively (than Crowder's).  Point is, we could survive without Crowder's aforementioned presence and production.......especially if it helps us land a two-way big.