Horford is the 3rd best big man in the league

[PhoSita]

I think the best comparison is comparing Horford to a guy like Parish.  His stats are nearly identical to Robert Parish in his career.  Parish was consistently up there as the next guy behind some of the major stat stuffers when he played. He didn't score as much but was capable of that.  Same with his rebounding.

I call BS


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/horfoal01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parisro01.html


As one can see Parrish had better stats in a lot of areas, especially rebounds.  They are not that close and they do not play a similar game.

their careers stats are nearly identical. What are you talking about?  Already listed this above

But

14.4 ppg, 8.8 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 2.8 assists, .533 fg percentage, .746 ft percentage

14.5 pph, 9.1 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 1.4 assists, .537 fg percentage, .721 ft percentage

They aren't nearly identical?  The top one is Horford.  Parish  is listed below. They are nearly identical.

Horford is shooting the 3 ball now where the game has changed that way the last few years. Parishes rebounds also dropped off as he got older. Different reasons.  But the nba is different now.

You can't use career stats for Parish because he played until he was 42 or something.  That's 12 years worth of data that is skewing things.

They weren't really similar at all statistically at similar ages.

[walker834]

They actually were.  Horford was getting 9.9 boards and parish was getting 10.  Both were scoring more if you look at it. Horford is past 30 now. He's still fine.  He's also shooting the 3 more which is  something parish never really did b ecause the nba is just different now.

Parish averaged 9.1 boards in his career.  Horford is at 8.8.  If you look at their stats early on they are still similar.  Parish had multiple double digit rebound years but it was basically 10 boards a game.  Horford was getting 9.8.

If you averaged their first 10 seasons i bet they would still be very similar.

Parish played until he was old and dropped off his last 4 or 5 years.  Horford will probably do teh same. 

The game has changed the last few years where some big men are shooting the 3 more.  Horford is one of them.    his assists have also jumped.

[walker834]

If you look at his rebounding compared to early in his career it's what I'm saying as well. On offense he is outside more.  He is averaging 2 less offensive rebounds a game compared to his rookie year. His blocks and defensive boards have remained about teh same.  It's like subtract 2 offensive boards and .5 of a defensive one a game and he's right back at his average.  He hasn't dropped off talent wise.  He's just shooting the 3 more and around the perimeter.  It's on offense where his boards have dropped.

If he was under the hoop he'd be averaging more boards.

I'm just looking at him talent wise anyways. He's perfectly capable as a rebounder.

[walker834]

He's basically taking 3 threes and making 1 vs getting 1 or 2 offensive rebounds. And getting a lot more assists.

This year he's taking 4 3's and making 1.5 and his assists have gone up even more. At the sacrifice of 2 offensive rebounds.

Is that good? I dont know. Mathematically it isn't in and of itself but if he is spacing the floor and allowing other guys to score and his assists are up then it really is.

1.5 3's taking 4 at the sacrifice of 2 offensive rebounds and more scoring isn't really better. It's like shooting 50 percent and not being inside getting those extra put backs.

But when his assists are  up and he is spacing the floor and allowing other guys to score it really is. 

His rank as a player hasn't really changed.

[Ilikesports17]

If you look at his rebounding compared to early in his career it's what I'm saying as well. On offense he is outside more.  He is averaging 2 less offensive rebounds a game compared to his rookie year. His blocks and defensive boards have remained about teh same.  It's like subtract 2 offensive boards and .5 of a defensive one a game and he's right back at his average.  He hasn't dropped off talent wise.  He's just shooting the 3 more and around the perimeter.  It's on offense where his boards have dropped.

If he was under the hoop he'd be averaging more boards.

I'm just looking at him talent wise anyways. He's perfectly capable as a rebounder.

He's basically taking 3 threes and making 1 vs getting 2 offensive rebounds. And getting a lot more assists.

nah his rebounding on the defensive side is not as good as it was.

In the first 6 years of his career his dreb% was always above 23% and he averaged 23.7.

Over the next 3 years its plummeted to 21.4, 19.8, 18.2 to a career low 17.4 this season.

These 3 career worst years had previously been attributed to the arrival of Paul Milsapp but the best rebounder on this team is currently Avery Bradley. The decline is that Al is not the same rebounder he used to be and he is only getting worse.

[walker834]

That's not true. Read my last post.  The last couple years he was taking 3 3's and making 1 at the sacrifice of basically 2 offensive boards.  This year he is taking 4 3's and making 1.5 and his assists have jumped at the sacrifice of 2 offensive boards and like .5 of a defensive one.

HIs talent level hasn't dropped off at all.  He is just around the perimeter more.

Making 1.5 3's and shooting 4 is basically like shooting 50 percent from 2 where he'd be getting those putbacks on offensive rebounds.

He's also spacing the floor and assisting to his teammates more.

His talent level hasn't dropped off at all.   If he was inside he'd be getting 2 or 3 offensive boards and shooting 50 percent on putbacks.

Instead he's shooting 3's and getting assists. 

He's mathematically just as good as he's always been.  Just doing it in different ways which from a team perspective probably works better.

He's lost 3 boards but making 3's and getting plus assists where it evens out. He's still a capable rebounder.  It's not like his talent has gone away there where if he is inside he can get a rebound just like he always has.

Parish yeah once he got to 35 or 36 yeah he was old.  Horford is 30.

[PhoSita]

I don't think statements about who you would trade him for 'straight up' really answer this question, btw.   I would trade Al in a heartbeat for KAT ... but that's because KAT has so much more future value.   KAT isn't really a better basketball player right this minute.

That's why the question is, "Who would you trade for straight-up if you only had the player for a single season?"

In other words, if you're trying to build the best possible team for this year, who would you rather have?

[Ilikesports17]

That's not true. Read my last post.  The last couple years he was taking 3 3's and making 1 at the sacrifice of basically 2 offensive boards.  This year he is taking 4 3's and making 1.5 and his assists have jumped at the sacrifice of 2 offensive boards and like .5 of a defensive one.

HIs talent level hasn't dropped off at all.  He is just around the perimeter more.

Making 1.5 3's and shooting 4 is basically like shooting 50 percent from 2 where he'd be getting those putbacks on offensive rebounds.

He's also spacing the floor and assisting to his teammates more.

His talent level hasn't dropped off at all.   If he was inside he'd be getting 2 or 3 offensive boards and shooting 50 percent on putbacks.

Instead he's shooting 3's and getting assists. 

He's mathematically just as good as he's always been.  Just doing it in different ways which from a team perspective probably works better.

He's lost 3 boards but making 3's and getting plus assists where it evens out. He's still a capable rebounder.  It's not like his talent has gone away there where if he is inside he can get a rebound just like he always has.

Parish yeah once he got to 35 or 36 yeah he was old.  Horford is 30.

Dreb% has literally nothing to do with offensive rebounds or just about anything on offense.

[Moranis]

I don't think statements about who you would trade him for 'straight up' really answer this question, btw.   I would trade Al in a heartbeat for KAT ... but that's because KAT has so much more future value.   KAT isn't really a better basketball player right this minute.

That's why the question is, "Who would you trade for straight-up if you only had the player for a single season?"

In other words, if you're trying to build the best possible team for this year, who would you rather have?

Even if it was just 1 year, I'd still trade Horford for Towns straight up and don't even think it is that close.  Towns is not the defender Horford is, but he is a more complete and better scorer, far better rebounder, and still a respectable passer.  Towns also has way more potential and ability to take over and dominant a game.  Sometimes you just need a guy to say we aren't losing this game, give me the ball, and get out of my way.  Towns can do that, Horford cannot. 

[walker834]

I don't think I would do that.  IT and Horford are just starting to get going and are basically vets on this team along with Crowder and AB at this point.  Marcus is too at this point but still developing.

Towns is a really good young player but the timberwolves are not a very good team with all the young guys they have.

For one year of Towns he is good in that his value is good around the league and he is hyped.  We could retain him and he'd have value but why trade for a guy just because he has good trade value.  It would have to be with the intent to keep him more long term than that.

Amir is a good vet too but might not last forever. Horford and IT are two main guys.  If we could trade one where we could  fill 2 pieces like that that's different and more longterm. But getting Towns for a year doesn't make much sense.  The same goes for Noel and guys like that.  It would have to be with the intent to resign and where they retain their value.

[wayupnorth]

I don't think statements about who you would trade him for 'straight up' really answer this question, btw.   I would trade Al in a heartbeat for KAT ... but that's because KAT has so much more future value.   KAT isn't really a better basketball player right this minute.

That's why the question is, "Who would you trade for straight-up if you only had the player for a single season?"

In other words, if you're trying to build the best possible team for this year, who would you rather have?

Even if it was just 1 year, I'd still trade Horford for Towns straight up and don't even think it is that close.  Towns is not the defender Horford is, but he is a more complete and better scorer, far better rebounder, and still a respectable passer.  Towns also has way more potential and ability to take over and dominant a game.  Sometimes you just need a guy to say we aren't losing this game, give me the ball, and get out of my way.  Towns can do that, Horford cannot.

Towns is extraordinary, but no he really can't do that yet.

[walker834]

Towns is very good.  He's a guy who could reach that potential.  Giannis has reached that potential at this point.  Are people that sold on Towns? I think Boogie is far and away the better player right now.  Towns is still young and is growing into his body.

I think if anything Towns has a chance to be a player like Horford but maybe slightly better. He isn't that right now.

Horford is not ordinary himself.

[TheTruthFot18]

Last few Walker threads 

[mmmmm]

I don't think statements about who you would trade him for 'straight up' really answer this question, btw.   I would trade Al in a heartbeat for KAT ... but that's because KAT has so much more future value.   KAT isn't really a better basketball player right this minute.

That's why the question is, "Who would you trade for straight-up if you only had the player for a single season?"

In other words, if you're trying to build the best possible team for this year, who would you rather have?

Even if it was just 1 year, I'd still trade Horford for Towns straight up and don't even think it is that close.  Towns is not the defender Horford is, but he is a more complete and better scorer, far better rebounder, and still a respectable passer.  Towns also has way more potential and ability to take over and dominant a game.  Sometimes you just need a guy to say we aren't losing this game, give me the ball, and get out of my way.  Towns can do that, Horford cannot.

Well, um, so far this year, he (KAT) isn't doing that.  At all.   Or, at least not successfully.

Whereas Horford actually has done that in a few of our games.

[walker834]

Last few Walker threads 

Because trading Horford for Towns makes no sense whether it's 1 year or for 1 year.  Horford is a better player and fits what we are trying to do with IT.

People have said they would take Towns because of his potential.   The Celtics are trying to win a title and have a situation where it's conducive to doing that. 

Towns is too young to do that on his own.