Was 2016 a Pathetic Draft Class?

[LarBrd33]

Prior to the draft, this class was labelled pretty weak.  Outside of Ben Simmons (Tier 1) and Ingram (a Tier 2 project), the best prospects from 3-8 were all labelled Tier 3 future role players at best.   It's VERY early in the season, but so far with Simmons out, the class is living up to the hype as a dud.

EFF = Points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks... subtract missed shots and turnovers. 

Only #47 pick Jake Layman (through 3 games) has an EFF above 10. 

Last year, 11 players finished with an EFF above 10.   Jaylen Brown (who was listed behind only Kris Dunn in the Rookie Ladder... ignoring the transcendent Joel Embiid who was drafted in 2014 and sits firmly at the top of the ladder) has an EFF of 7.25 despite getting surprising starting minutes in Jae Crowder's absense.  For reference, an EFF of 7.25 would have put him behind 17 rookies last year.

In 2014, 7 players finished with an EFF above 10... and that's without Joel Embiid or Julius Randle.

In 2013, widely considered awful draft class, 5 players finished with an EFF above 10 (MCW, Oladipo, Burke, Olynyk, Plumlee).

In 2012, 8 players finished with an EFF above 10.

In 2011, 10 players.

In 2010, 5 players.

In 2009, 10 players.

In 2008, 16 players.

In 2007, 9 players.

In 2006, 6 players.


So again, let's look at the rookies so far this year.

Joel Embiid has an EFF of 16.7 (in just 22mpg), but he's not part of the 2016 draft class.   So far only Jake Layman (pick 47) and his flukey 3 game EFF of 11.0 is above 10.   Behind him:

Domantis Sabonis (pick 11):  9.8
Dario Saric:  9.6 (doesn't count, because he was drafted in 2014)
Malcom Brogdon (Pick 36):  9.5
Kris Dunn (Pick 5): 8.29
Skal Labissiere (Pick 28):  8.0
Guillermo Hernangomez (pick 35):  7.6
Jaylen Brown (Pick 3):  7.25
Brandon Ingram (pick 2):  6.67
Pascal Siakam (pick 27):  6.63

... etc

So far, this is complete garbage class.  Presumably, Ben Simmons (expected to come back in January) could quickly rise up the rookie ladder if these kind of performances continue.  Even someone like the veteran rookie Buddy Hield and his 4 years of College ball currently has an EFF of 5.78 as he's shooting dreadful percentages.

Important to note that it's been less than 10 games.  You gotta figure as the season progresses some of these rookies will start to hit a stride, see their minutes shoot up and their performances improve...  But this time last year (through the first 8-9 games), Towns had an EFF of 21, Okafor had an EFF of 17, Porzingis had an EFF of 14.  Willie Cauley Stein had an Eff of 12 and Mudiay had an Eff of 10.   

People compared this weak draft class (outside of Simmons and Ingram) to 2013's weak draft class.   This time in 2013, only Michael Carter Williams, Nate Wolters, Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo had EFF's above 10.   We now know that there were some hidden gems in that draft class such as Giannis Antetokounmpo (pick 15) and CJ McCollom (Pick 10), Dennis Schroder (pick 17) and Rudy Golbert (Pick 27).   

So I guess I have two questions.   

#1 - Aside from Ben Simmons, which rookies have shown you enough that you think they can hit a stride and see their stats improve above a 10 eff?  Thon Maker has only played 12 minutes of NBA basketball so far (through 3 games and has 9 points and 7 rebounds on 3-4 shooting).   Might he be a candidate?  Do you think Buddy Hield's shooting will improve enough to do it (currently shooting a Marcus Smart-esque 34% and 23% from three)?

#2 - Who would you guess are the hidden gems in this weak 2016 draft similar to Giannis/CJ in 2013?  Is there anyone you have your eye on taken outside the top 10?  Sabonis (pick 11) seems to be a leading candidate early on.

[Cman]

Question: are the EFF stats for other years also based off of the first ~10 games ? Or over the course of a season? If it's the latter, then it is Way too early to make a comparison (based off of EFF).

[LarBrd33]

Question: are the EFF stats for other years also based off of the first ~10 games ? Or over the course of a season? If it's the latter, then it is Way too early to make a comparison (based off of EFF).

Read on, I discuss that.  I'm listing out EFF's over the course of the full season, but I also mention how a couple classes looked through the first 8-9 games.

But this time last year (through the first 8-9 games), Towns had an EFF of 21, Okafor had an EFF of 17, Porzingis had an EFF of 14.  Willie Cauley Stein had an Eff of 12 and Mudiay had an Eff of 10.   

This time in 2013 (through the first 8-9 games), only Michael Carter Williams, Nate Wolters, Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo had EFF's above 10.

One of my final questions is... who do you think will improve enough over the course of the season to get above 10 EFF.  It's super early.  You gotta figure some will hit a stride.

I'll go back one more year and look at 2012...

By November 12th, the 2012 draft class had Anthony Davis with an EFF of 22, Michael Kid Gilchrist with an EFF of 17.2.  Damian Lillard with an EFF of 15.7.  Dion Waiters with an EFF of 12.  Bradley Beal with an Eff of 11.6.  Andre Drummond with an EFF of 11.  Alexey Shved with an EFF of 10.3.

[Denis998]

I think efficiency stat is inappropriate for judging rookies.

[BlackCeltic]

I don't know if this is a garbage class. Im just glad we were able to draft Jaylen Brown and the 2 stashes overseas.

[LarBrd33]

I think efficiency stat is inappropriate for judging rookies.

For reference.  EFF is the simplest quick-glance look at conventional NBA stats.  It's merely points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks ... subtract missed shots and turnovers.  These aren't advanced stats.   It's just a simple number that sums up the stats you'd see on the back of a basketball card.

So far, this class has been complete garbage.  The best players (from this class) have been:

Jake Layman:  Averaging 10.3 points, 1.7 assists, 1.3 rebounds with 63% shooting in 12mpg through 3 games. 

And I guess Sabonis?:  8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists with 48% shooting in 21.6mpg.

Jaylen Brown is 6th amongst players from his draft class with his averages of:  7.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1 assist with 44% shooting in 19mpg.... those stats would have put him as the 17th best rookie last year.  He would have been basically tied at #17 with Josh Richardson and his 6.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists with 45% shooting and 46% from three.

We're talking about really basic stats here.   So far, there isn't a single rookie from this class other than Jake Layman even averaging double-digit points.  7 rookies did it last year.

There's a chance this is just a really slow start and we'll start to see big performances from guys like Buddy Hield and Jamal Murray.  I'm curious who you guys think those late bloomers will be this season and who the "hidden gems" might be from this potentially historically weak class (sans Ben Simmons).

[nickagneta]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

[LarBrd33]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

Yes it merely shows raw stats.  And in terms of raw stats, this draft class has been a complete dud just as predicted (outside of Ben Simmons).   That doesn't mean some of these guys might not still be quality role players.  It means by the measure we look at guys like Russell Westbrook and James Harden (points, assists, rebounds, steals, blocks), this class has been startlingly bad thus far.  It is what it is.  Not a single player other than Jake Layman even averaging double digit points.   That's bad.  If this continues, you'll see many articles published about how bad this class is.   I gotta imagine it's just a slow start, though. 

It's a cop-out to ignore conventional stats and just say "well ... perhaps Jamal Murray is playing strong defense" when acknowledging his lack of impact on the box score thus far vs someone like Mudiay last year.

[Moranis]

Dunn is shooting 43% from three, but is below 35% from 2 (which is absolutely horrible).  Once he gets a bit more comfortable he will improve his 2 point shooting a great deal and that will increase his EFF a great deal even if he drops a few percent from three. 

I still think Bender is going to be a very good player.  Everyone knew he was very raw and not really ready though, so no surprise there. 

[LarBrd33]

Dunn is shooting 43% from three, but is below 35% from 2 (which is absolutely horrible).  Once he gets a bit more comfortable he will improve his 2 point shooting a great deal and that will increase his EFF a great deal even if he drops a few percent from three. 

I still think Bender is going to be a very good player.  Everyone knew he was very raw and not really ready though, so no surprise there.

Dunn seems to be a good candidate to start putting up decent box scores.  He's already #2 behind Embiid in the Rookie Ladder. 

[mr. dee]

2016 is a raw class. None of the top picks, except Jaylen and Ingram can contribute now consistently.

[LarBrd33]

2016 is a raw class. None of the top picks, except Jaylen and Ingram can contribute now consistently.

Are people still saying 2017 is going to be really strong?

[celticsclay]

This doesn't make any sense to do advanced stats after 9 games...could be great could be awful. Won't probably know till toward end of next year

[Denis998]

There is no way that KD is better than JB at this point in the season. I have been following him closely, and he has been falling more and more out of rotation each game he played as a starter. Just look at his minutes trend as a starter.

[Kaz]

There is no way that KD is better than JB at this point in the season. I have been following him closely, and he has been falling more and more out of rotation each game he played as a starter. Just look at his minutes trend as a starter.

Honestly was dumbfounded for a good minute or so until I realized you were talking about Dunn, not Durant 

Anyways, I think one thing about this draft class that makes it look bad out the gate (outside of its best player being injured) is that most of the real talents are very raw (Ingram, Brown, Chriss, Dragon Bender).  I don't think they've necessarily been disappointing so far since there weren't any expectations for any of them to contribute immediately anyways.  Guys that were supposed to, like Murray and Hield, on the other hand, have disappointed hard. 

I think Simmons/Ingram/Brown have potential to all be all-star caliber players, but this draft has been what many thought it was gonna be all along: a few high-ceiling prospects and not much else.