Was 2016 a Pathetic Draft Class?

[LarBrd33]

This doesn't make any sense to do advanced stats after 9 games...could be great could be awful. Won't probably know till toward end of next year

They aren't advanced stats.  It's basic box score impact.  I'm not talking about +/- or defensive/offensive ratings.  I'm talking about basic points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.  The kind of conventional basketball card stats they use to select ROY and the All Rookie teams.  This rookie class is putting up crappy stats.  Perhaps Sabonis has been the best and his stats are pretty mediocre.  Not a single player other than Jake Layman averaging over 10 points.  We usually see rookies making bigger statistical impact than this.   Nobody is doing much of anything right now from this class.  It's still early though.  As someone pointed out, Kris Dunn could find himself starting if Rubio gets traded.  He might start putting up numbers.

[The Oracle]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

^^This.  EFF is a trash statistic that has a million holes in it.  For example it favors big men a lot in that they rebound which adds greatly to their totals and they also miss fewer FGA which doesn't give an accurate depiction of their efficiency but will favor them greatly over 3 point shooters.

[LarBrd33]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

^^This.  EFF is a trash statistic that has a million holes in it.

They use to call it "Birdies", because it was a basic formula that Larry Bird used to determine who were the best players.

It's a really simple formula to see who is impacting the box score.   The same stats that people lose their mind over when someone like Russell Westbrook, LeBron James or James Harden goes off.    Points + Rebounds + assists + steals + blocks.   Subtract missed shots and turnovers.   This is simple stuff.   You can ignore it, but you might as well ignore all the great performances filled with conventional stats. 

If you want to find a better measure go for it.  You'll likely find that this class is garbage comparatively using whatever measure you choose to use.  Nobody from it is doing anything of note right now.  It's living up to the projection that it's a dud outside of Simmons and Ingram.  If the season ended today and we ignored the great Joel Embiid (from the class of 2014)... then perhaps Sabonis would be Rookie of the year with his averages of 8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists.  Worst rookie of the year ever?   Absolutely.

[LarBrd33]

double post

[The Oracle]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

^^This.  EFF is a trash statistic that has a million holes in it.

They use to call it "Birdies", because it was a basic formula that Larry Bird used to determine who were the best players.

It's a really simple formula to see who is impacting the box score.   The same stats that people lose their mind over when someone like Russell Westbrook, LeBron James or James Harden goes off.    Points + Rebounds + assists + steals + blocks.   Subtract missed shots and turnovers.   This is simple stuff.   You can ignore it, but you might as well ignore all the great performances filled with conventional stats. 

No you simply cannot use a blanket formula like this to compare PG's to SG's to Big men.  A shooting guard has very little opportunity in most instances to accumulate points.  They do not rebound because they are always on the perimeter both offensively and defensively.  They shoot a lot of 3's which they will also be discounted greatly for in this formula even though they may provide better efficiency than a lot of bigs.  They do not accumulate assists because it is not their primary job.  A SG's job is in most instances to shoot, create space and defend the perimeter, not accumulate box score stats.

[Moranis]

This doesn't make any sense to do advanced stats after 9 games...could be great could be awful. Won't probably know till toward end of next year

They aren't advanced stats.  It's basic box score impact.  I'm not talking about +/- or defensive/offensive ratings.  I'm talking about basic points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.  The kind of conventional basketball card stats they use to select ROY and the All Rookie teams.  This rookie class is putting up crappy stats.  Perhaps Sabonis has been the best and his stats are pretty mediocre.  Not a single player other than Jake Layman averaging over 10 points.  We usually see rookies making bigger statistical impact than this.   Nobody is doing much of anything right now from this class.  It's still early though.  As someone pointed out, Kris Dunn could find himself starting if Rubio gets traded.  He might start putting up numbers.

None of them are getting minutes that would yield to 10 ppg.  I mean only 6 guys are even playing 20 mpg, with Dunn at 22.3 leading the way.  In 2015, 16 players ended the year with at least 20 mpg and Towns and Mudiay were both over 30.  Of those 16 players, 7 averaged over 10 ppg, the one with the least minutes was Myles Turner at 23.3 minutes a game, so a full minute more than Dunn.  Two players with more minutes than Turner last year didn't even average 10 ppg, Winslow and Harrison.  I have no idea what the mpg or ppg were for the rookies last year at this point in the season, but I know guys like Towns were getting big minutes almost from the start. 

So bottom line, when you use a stat that looks at totals and doesn't account for minutes, you are going to get some skewed results when the minutes just aren't there.

[LarBrd33]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

^^This.  EFF is a trash statistic that has a million holes in it.

They use to call it "Birdies", because it was a basic formula that Larry Bird used to determine who were the best players.

It's a really simple formula to see who is impacting the box score.   The same stats that people lose their mind over when someone like Russell Westbrook, LeBron James or James Harden goes off.    Points + Rebounds + assists + steals + blocks.   Subtract missed shots and turnovers.   This is simple stuff.   You can ignore it, but you might as well ignore all the great performances filled with conventional stats. 

No you simply cannot use a blanket formula like this to compare PG's to SG's to Big men.

You're missing the point.   If there's a better measure than EFF, go for it.   Fact is, these rookies are putting up pathetic numbers compared to previous years.

Kris Dunn is #2 on the NBA.com rookie ladder behind the great Joel Embiid.  Dunn is averaging 4.9 points, 4 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals with 36% shooting in 22mpg.   If the season ended today and we ignored the great Joel Embiid, I suppose Dunn would get the Rookie of the Year Award.   The question is, would that be the worst stats ever from a Rookie of the year?   Definitely.  That's pathetic numbers from a Rookie of the year.

We have to assume that as the season progresses, one of these rookies will start to show some signs of life.  Anyone have any guesses other than Kris Dunn on who that might be?

[LarBrd33]

This doesn't make any sense to do advanced stats after 9 games...could be great could be awful. Won't probably know till toward end of next year

They aren't advanced stats.  It's basic box score impact.  I'm not talking about +/- or defensive/offensive ratings.  I'm talking about basic points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.  The kind of conventional basketball card stats they use to select ROY and the All Rookie teams.  This rookie class is putting up crappy stats.  Perhaps Sabonis has been the best and his stats are pretty mediocre.  Not a single player other than Jake Layman averaging over 10 points.  We usually see rookies making bigger statistical impact than this.   Nobody is doing much of anything right now from this class.  It's still early though.  As someone pointed out, Kris Dunn could find himself starting if Rubio gets traded.  He might start putting up numbers.

None of them are getting minutes that would yield to 10 ppg.  I mean only 6 guys are even playing 20 mpg, with Dunn at 22.3 leading the way.  In 2015, 16 players ended the year with at least 20 mpg and Towns and Mudiay were both over 30.  Of those 16 players, 7 averaged over 10 ppg, the one with the least minutes was Myles Turner at 23.3 minutes a game, so a full minute more than Dunn.  Two players with more minutes than Turner last year didn't even average 10 ppg, Winslow and Harrison.  I have no idea what the mpg or ppg were for the rookies last year at this point in the season, but I know guys like Towns were getting big minutes almost from the start. 

So bottom line, when you use a stat that looks at totals and doesn't account for minutes, you are going to get some skewed results when the minutes just aren't there.

The minutes thing is a valid point and it certainly correlates to why this draft class is putting up historically pathetic numbers if it continues.   Only 6 players are getting 20+ minutes.  The most is the 22.2mpg that Dunn is getting.     This time last year (through 8-9 games), 17 rookies were getting 20+ minutes and three rookies (Okafor, Mudiay and Towns) were getting 30+ minutes... 

Again, I'm not talking about by the end of the season... I'm literally talking about by November 12th of 2015 they were already getting those minutes out of the gate. 7 rookies were already getting 27+ minutes (Booker, Russell, Porzingis, Winslow, Okafor, Mudiay and Towns)

You could either take that to mean that this class is oddly having a very slow start across the board... or it's just a pathetic draft class that isn't worthy of minutes at this point.   Maybe somewhere in between.  Everyone outside of Simmons (and Ingram, long-term) was pegged as a long-term role player.  Is it much of a surprise that everyone in this class is getting role player minutes?  No, not really.  Alas, we might see a couple of these guys (like Hield or something) defy expectations and get starter minutes as a rookie despite being labelled a long-term role player.

I could see Dunn get starter minutes if Rubio is traded.  Anyone else?

[KG Living Legend]

EFF is a garbage fantasy basketball stat and has nothing to do with efficiency, defense, or how good a player is. It simply shows raw stats. Any scrub can hang raw stats on a bad team but not be a good player. MCW and Trey Burke are just a couple of examples of less than good players who had good EFFs in their rookie seasons. And a lot of the players you mention are not stars but borderline starters or bench role players.

^^This.  EFF is a trash statistic that has a million holes in it.

They use to call it "Birdies", because it was a basic formula that Larry Bird used to determine who were the best players.

It's a really simple formula to see who is impacting the box score.   The same stats that people lose their mind over when someone like Russell Westbrook, LeBron James or James Harden goes off.    Points + Rebounds + assists + steals + blocks.   Subtract missed shots and turnovers.   This is simple stuff.   You can ignore it, but you might as well ignore all the great performances filled with conventional stats. 

No you simply cannot use a blanket formula like this to compare PG's to SG's to Big men.

You're missing the point.   If there's a better measure than EFF, go for it.   Fact is, these rookies are putting up pathetic numbers compared to previous years.

Kris Dunn is #2 on the NBA.com rookie ladder behind the great Joel Embiid.  Dunn is averaging 4.9 points, 4 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals with 36% shooting in 22mpg.   If the season ended today and we ignored the great Joel Embiid, I suppose Dunn would get the Rookie of the Year Award.   The question is, would that be the worst stats ever from a Rookie of the year?   Definitely.  That's pathetic numbers from a Rookie of the year.

We have to assume that as the season progresses, one of these rookies will start to show some signs of life.  Anyone have any guesses other than Kris Dunn on who that might be?

 Per 36 Stats so far

 Buddy Hield 16 ppg 5 RPG

 Jaylen Brown  15 ppg 5Rpg

 Chriss 12.5 ppg 8.3 RPG

 I'd guess one of these scrubs.

[celticsclay]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

[LarBrd33]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

Yeah I agree.  Looks like a historically bad draft class so far.  If it continued, a guy averaging 4 points would be the best player in the draft class.  Lol.  Thank god for Embiid (class of 2014) carrying this crop of rookies.  Nobody even remotely close so far.  Maybe Saric.

[celticsclay]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

Yeah I agree.  Looks like a historically bad draft class so far.  If it continued, a guy averaging 4 points would be the best player in the draft class.  Lol.  Thank god for Embiid (class of 2014) carrying this crop of rookies.  Nobody even remotely close so far.  Maybe Saric.

Historically bad lol... pretty sure the best player will be better than oladipo or Kenyon Martin. Good hyperbole though

[LarBrd33]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

Yeah I agree.  Looks like a historically bad draft class so far.  If it continued, a guy averaging 4 points would be the best player in the draft class.  Lol.  Thank god for Embiid (class of 2014) carrying this crop of rookies.  Nobody even remotely close so far.  Maybe Saric.

Historically bad lol... pretty sure the best player will be better than oladipo or Kenyon Martin. Good hyperbole though

So far, nobody in this draft class (excluding the great Joel Embiid) can carry rookie Oladipo or rookie Kenyon Martin's jock. 

Compare what Dunn is doing (4 points and 4 assists) to rookie Oladipo:  (14 points, 4.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals)....  or Rookie Kenyon Martin:  (12 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal) ... not even remotely close.

[tazzmaniac]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

So now you're playing the silly thread card after getting on to me for saying your "inconsequential trade" thread was silly because it was premature. 

[celticsclay]

Meh seems like a silly thread 9 games in. Nobody expended bender or criss or brown to be getting major minutes. Simmons has been injured. Heild and Dunn have been ok so far. Not sure what else anyone would expect or why advanced stats are ground breaking here

So now you're playing the silly thread card after getting on to me for saying your "inconsequential trade" thread was silly because it was premature.

I've said it is kind of funny we discussed a trade for 3 years that at the end of the day is not alternating the landscape of the NBA. How that relates to trying to rank an entire rookie class after 9 games is beyond me. Nice try though