Noel is not the missing piece to put this Celtics team over the top.
It'd be absolutely nuts to move BKN '17 alone for him, nevermind BKN '17 + change.
We could have the best defense in the league this season even without the addition of NOel. But adding him (a player who I genuinely feel has a chance to be the best rim protector in the league) could theoretically make us unstoppable defensively, right?
Golden State looks like they will have unprecedented offense this year. I can see the logic in trying to build a team that will possibly have unprecedented defense.
So in that sense, I get what walker834 is arguing for. But I'd still probably avoid doing it. That Brooklyn pick has a chance to be a key part in us acquiring a superstar.
You're not just building for this upcoming season. You're building long-term. Keeping BKN '17 & Rozier is going to be a helluva cheaper than bringing in Noel nevermind the better than average chance that BKN '17 will produce a superior player to Noel.
Noel is 22 years old and presumably hasn't reached his ceiling (he's heading into his 3rd year - just like Marcus Smart. Both are just as likely to make leaps). It's not like adding him would be adding a vet.
It's entirely very possible that the Brooklyn pick results in a player that will be far worse long-term than Noel. This is without a doubt true. There's a very good percentage that the pick will be a player who is lesser than Nerlens Noel. There's also the distinct possibility the pick lands someone who ends up better than Noel. Both possibilities need to be accounted for.
Still, there's other valid reasons to avoid that trade right now.
Noel is not the missing piece. If you're moving BKN '17 in a package, you better get a helluva less flawed player in return than Nerlens Noel. And much more established. You're trading that pick to bank on another guy's potential.
You account for both possibilities but you already own BKN '17. That won't cost you anything. Plus you have that asset under cost control for the foreseeable future. There also is a very good chance that it will be top 5 if not better. This is, without a doubt, true.
Acquiring Noel comes at a cost. Because you have to trade for him. Additionally, you then have to factor in his next contract. There goes your cost control out the window.