I think we all hope Jaylen shows up significantly better than everyone expects. It would be pretty incredible if he could play solid defense off the bench and shoot over 40% this season. It's definitely going to be one of the most exciting things about this season - the small possibility for Jaylen to exceed reasonable expectations.
What is the point of this post? "The small possibility for Jaylen to exceed reasonable expectations". What kind of celtics fan says that? You're a joke. And personally I think Brown could easily shoot 40% this season and I know he will play solid defense. It definitely wouldn't be "incredible".
Interestingly enough, he seems to be putting up similar shooting to Marcus Smart, a guy who (perhaps unfairly in retrospect) was seen as a higher level prospect at the time he came out and has thus far been pretty disappointing.
Marcus Smart in College: 42% shooting/29% from three
Marcus Smart Summer League: 32% shooting/27% from three
Marcus Smart Year 1: 37% shooting/34% from three.
Marcus Smart Year 2: 35% shooting/25% from three
Jaylen in College: 42% shooting/29% from three
Jaylen in Summer League: 32% shooting/22% from three
... I'd be rather surprised to see him shoot over 40% on the NBA level next season. Long-term he has a chance to be really good, but unless he makes a dramatic and inexplicable leap this Summer, signs point to him struggling offensively this year. It's important to remember he's only 19 years old. Most likely he's going to need at least couple years of development.
Good point with the shooting %'s. That was reason number one I didn't think Jaylen Brown was worth a top three pick.
I really only think Bender, Brown, Dunn, Murray were in contention for that pick. Dunn was the easy pick. Time will tell.
1. If Jaylen Brown shoots 40% from 3 this season that would indeed be "incredible." There were only 30 players in the entire NBA that shot over 40% from 3 last year (of players who take 2+ attempts per game) and certainly none of them were rookies other than Josh Richardson. The thought of Jaylen shooting 40%+ over the season would be him exceeding reasonable expectations which really isn't a joke at all. Its what it is and that's a small possibility that he exceeds realistic expectations.
2. I agree with the fact that Bender, Dunn, and Brown were the only ones in contention for that pick. It's really not beating a dead horse. He went fourth and was and still is a highly touted prospect. Sure he was horrible in summer league but he's what, 18 years old and has hardly played against NBA competition. Not making an Olympic team as an 18 year old? Oh no, he's never going to produce anything ever!!!
The 40% mentioned was overall FG% not 3PT%.
Based on what I've read about Jaylen and what the short-term expectations seem to be, I agree it would be incredible if he shot over 40% from the field this season. It will be equally incredible if he shoots over 30% from three.
I guess then it would be equally as incredible if Ben Simmons shot over 40% from the field, 30% from 3's, and 70% from the line, right?
It would be very surprising if Simmons shot over 30% from three his first year. But he shot 56% from the field in College so depending on how he's utilized, it wouldn't be too surprising to see him have a FG% over 40%. In College, he was able to finish at the hoop so its not unthinkable that it will translate to the pros. 56% is much higher than Jaylen's 42% in College. It's well known Simmons can't shoot either (and that was on display in Summer League), so it really depends on whether or not they ask him to take jumpers. I don't think you should expect Simmons to shoot high 40% though. Even Durant, Kobe and Lebron shot in the low 40% their rookie season.
It would be incredibly shocking to see Jaylen shoot over 40% as a rookie. He struggled to shoot and finish on the College level and he struggled to shoot and finish on the Summer League level. It would take a dramatic improvement.
But he shot 32% in summer league and it's going to be a lot of rougher for him playing on the Bad News Bears of basketball. Brown won't be asked to do as much, so thinking he'll shoot so poorly is shortsighted.
Yeah, again, that just comes down to how Philly utilizes Simmons. He's being compared to Magic Johnson. A 6'10 point guard. He was able to shoot 56% in college, but it came almost entirely on plays on the inside. The team might play him initially at point-forward, but they envision him being their point guard long-term. If they ask him to take shots, he's probably going to miss them. If he controls the ball, sets up other players and attacks the hoop, 40% shooting isn't a reach. I guess that's Philly's problem to figure out, though I don't blame you for being a bit jealous - it's a nice problem to have.
Since we're talking about Jaylen Brown, though, and not our envy of Philly's youth - it should be pointed out that Jaylen has shown an inability to consistently shoot or finish at the basket.
Among the 338 college players who averaged at least as many points as Brown's 14.6 in 2015-16, the former Cal Bear's true shooting percentage of .518 ranked 299th.
In Summer league, that poor shooting and weak finishing was on display. Unless they exclusively use him on fast breaks, I would be pretty shocked to see the kid shoot over 40% as a rookie. That would be incredible. If he does, it will be due to a tiny sample size of minimal shot attempts. If Jaylen is only utilized as a defensive role player, any offense he gets will be generated from the team's defense. I don't expect to see him given much opportunity to create offense on his own. So if he's shooting over 40%, it might be because he's averaging less than 5 points per game.
Topic: Pathetic SF Draft, but we grabbed the best one. (Read 8824 times)