How much better are the Celts with the addition of Horford, Green, Brown?

[PhoSita]

A lot of people overthinking it with Horford.

The Celts desperately needed a two-way big who could give the team a quality 30-34 minutes a night and work well with any of the other big men they could put out there.

Horford, at last, gives them that type of presence in the frontcourt. 


Now, I don't think the team is suddenly going to win 55-60 games this year.  The defense will be elite again, though, and the offense should be a bit better.  I'm not too worried about rebounding, at least in the regular season.

In the playoffs, I think the Celts will be much more dangerous than they were before, but competing on the boards, dealing with star wings with size, and finding ways to score when opponents play aggressive on IT will still be significant challenges.

[chiken Green]

The Celtics weren't exposed last year they were injured and missing 2 key pieces..

Sully down the stretch was out of gas. What good is being an awesome force on the boards when you are laboring to get up and down the court at the end of the year.

And it's not just adding Al, Green and Brown but Also the Growth of Smart and Rozier and KO.
Evan turner was not the glue that was holding this team together..  His Mid range game was nice and yes he came up with a few moments but at the end of the day he was just a guy who Stevens put in spots to shine despite his serious limitations.  He wont be hard to replace on the court though.   

[Evantime34]

The loss of Sullinger and Turner are being overrated on this board, imo.

At the same time, it's really hard to get into the mid 50's in wins. Lot's of things can happen that could bring the team short of the 52-55 win expectations. Injuries, shooting slumps and growing pains from the young guys could all contribute to less of an improvement from 48 wins than expected.

While I am high on this team, expecting 55 wins is a recipe to end up disappointed. I've been saying 52 wins but predicting any more than that makes me nervous.

[chiken Green]

The loss of Sullinger and Turner are being overrated on this board, imo.

At the same time, it's really hard to get into the mid 50's in wins. Lot's of things can happen that could bring the team short of the 52-55 win expectations. Injuries, shooting slumps and growing pains from the young guys could all contribute to less of an improvement from 48 wins than expected.

While I am high on this team, expecting 55 wins is a recipe to end up disappointed. I've been saying 52 wins but predicting any more than that makes me nervous.

This team reminds me of the Hawks 2014-2015 when they won 60 games.. Al and a bunch of Scrappy role players..  I think 55 can be done..

Last year Minus Al and a bunch of untimely injuries and slumps throughout the year  we did 48..

[BDeCosta26]

I'll bet someone a TP that Horford averages about the same or more RPG this year than Sullinger did last year.

I think he's gonna spend more time near the basket on offense than he has in the past couple years, and we're gonna need him to rebound more than the Hawks did. 17/9 seems like a good projection for him.

[timpiker]

The same.  Well miss Turner big time.

[CelticPride2016]

The Celtics weren't exposed last year they were injured and missing 2 key pieces..

Sully down the stretch was out of gas. What good is being an awesome force on the boards when you are laboring to get up and down the court at the end of the year.

I thought we improved from the first playoff year. I was impressed with the wins over Atlanta. You are correct. The Celtics were on fumes.

And it's not just adding Al, Green and Brown but Also the Growth of Smart and Rozier and KO.
Evan turner was not the glue that was holding this team together..  His Mid range game was nice and yes he came up with a few moments but at the end of the day he was just a guy who Stevens put in spots to shine despite his serious limitations.  He wont be hard to replace on the court though.

Yes, Bradley improved each year and now these other players are proceeding on schedule.

This should be a break out year for Olynyk. I think he's played only one less NBA year than Sully. Sullinger was ready to enter a prime of a career but he ate too much food. Now it is Olynyk's turn. He will have decent support for frontcourt defense with Amir and Al. There was never any way to fudge around the fact that a trio of Olynyk, Sully, and Zeller could not handle rim protection. Amir changed that last year. He is definitely underrated as a key rotation factor with signing Horford. I'm psyched.

So it looks like Rozier is ready to be a rotation player or fill the Phil Pressey spare tire role. Jerebko and Zeller seem to be one of those. Although one never knows and we are all counting down the days to real games.

No way was Evan Turner the glue. He was the Jordan Crawford. He was the guy who did what he did because there was no one else. Turner is not good enough to have the ball in his hand so much and anyway, there's no way the Celtics could pay him the money Portland did.

If Rozier is bad and Smart can't do it, there's no way Olynyk is good enough to compensate. If Demetrius Jackson isn't ready to go with those other scenarios, we are in serious trouble if Isaiah gets hurt.

Rozier looks good to go, as does Smart. We lost a point guard in Evan Turner, but it's not like he was Magic Johnson. He improved. He was a nice guy. We'll see how good he is having to play in a new system on a mega contract.

I'd add Colton Iverson and trade Zeller, a little thing like that and then roll with what we've got.

[mctyson]

The xfactor imo is Brown.  We already know what to expect from Horford and Green coming off the bench.   If Brown can play like a ROY candidate , than I like our chances to at least get past the 1st round and have a good chance to get past the 2nd round of the playoffs

Thoughts?

Totally underrating Horford here.  He was the reason ATL was a good team for a while.  He is replacing Sullinger.  Think about that and think about where the Cs can go from there.

[jpotter33]

I've said it before and it bears repeating again here.  Horford is a significantly better player than Sullinger, but his skill set won't improve the win total all that much because Boston was already a strong defensive team and has some solid outside shooting big men (JJ, KO).  Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger is and that is one area Boston was really weak last year (and is now weaker at).  So, yes, Horford is significantly better than Sullinger, but he isn't significantly better in the areas he really needs to be better to move the win total much.  To expect more than a win or two because of Horford is setting yourself up for a let down.

But they didn't really play all that much with all things considered. Here's the minutes breakdown for our four main bigs last year:

Sully - 23.6
Amir - 22.8
KO - 20.2
JJ - 15.1

So none of them played even half of the game where Horford will easily average 30+ minutes a night. That's a major factor with spacing and his improved defense. Further, with Horford playing more minutes, that probably means we need Amir's defense less, meaning even more spacing with Horford in KO, JJ, or Crowder when we go small. That's much more time with two floor-spacing bigs on the floor to provide even more space for IT to penetrate, which is huge for us.

And going Horford/Amir and/or JJ helps us create more turnovers defensively, which gets us out running more for easy offense.

So I think Horford's presence and skillset is better for us than you think. I also think we use JJ more this season due to his versatility and his excellent playoffs, and I think he'll end up fighting with KO for time as the third big who can spread the floor but also be versatile defensively.

[Celtics4ever]

Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger

Put Sully along Milsap and he would not get as many rebounds as Horford did.   Horford for his career is a better rebounder than Sully.   It was only when Milsap came that his numbers dipped.  Relax, all the teams passed on spending big bucks on Sully, it is going to be ok.   Our rebounding will be ok, Horford only averaged one less RPG and he can block shots and shoot better than Jared.

[chambers]

Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger

Put Sully along Milsap and he would not get as many rebounds as Horford did.   Horford for his career is a better rebounder than Sully.   It was only when Milsap came that his numbers dipped.  Relax, all the teams passed on spending big bucks on Sully, it is going to be ok.   Our rebounding will be ok, Horford only averaged one less RPG and he can block shots and shoot better than Jared.

For arguments sake, Horford is not a better rebounder than Sully for his career.
Sully's career average per 36 is 11.1 rebounds per game with a 17.1 rebound %.

Horford for his career averages 9.1 rebounds per game with a 15.4% rebound rate.

Last season Sully averaged 12.7 rebounds per 36 with a 17.1% rebound rate.
Horford averaged 8.2 rebounds with a 12.4% rebound rate.

You can argue that playing with Millsap hurts Horford's numbers, but Sullinger played away from the basket for significant minutes on offense, which hurts his.


Although Horford is still an upgrade at almost every other facet of the game, Jared Sullinger is a better rebounder than Horford.

[PAOBoston]

Replacing Sully with Horford is huge defensively and floor spacing wise. Sully might be a better rebounder but is a lesser player everywhere else minus the buffet table.

I'm worried about the loss of Turner. I think people understate how much he did and meant. I'm terrified if Rozier/Smart don't take that next step.

[Celtics17]

Major long term injuries aside, this team is much better! I am predicting a couple of 10 game or better winning streaks as well as a run of 16 of 20 or around there. I think the team now has enough depth that it can withstand injuries better then last years squad.

[jpotter33]

Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger

Put Sully along Milsap and he would not get as many rebounds as Horford did.   Horford for his career is a better rebounder than Sully.   It was only when Milsap came that his numbers dipped.  Relax, all the teams passed on spending big bucks on Sully, it is going to be ok.   Our rebounding will be ok, Horford only averaged one less RPG and he can block shots and shoot better than Jared.

For arguments sake, Horford is not a better rebounder than Sully for his career.
Sully's career average per 36 is 11.1 rebounds per game with a 17.1 rebound %.

Horford for his career averages 9.1 rebounds per game with a 15.4% rebound rate.

Last season Sully averaged 12.7 rebounds per 36 with a 17.1% rebound rate.
Horford averaged 8.2 rebounds with a 12.4% rebound rate.

You can argue that playing with Millsap hurts Horford's numbers, but Sullinger played away from the basket for significant minutes on offense, which hurts his.


Although Horford is still an upgrade at almost every other facet of the game, Jared Sullinger is a better rebounder than Horford.

It's a little unfair to use per-36 for Sully, because he's neither averaged anywhere near those minutes nor can he with his weight. His stamina just isn't there with his weight, so it doesn't really matter if he has a higher per-36 rebounding percentage and/or numbers if he can only effectively play 25 minutes a night compared to Horford's 36 that he can actually play.

That said, we'll see Horford's rebounding numbers significantly increase this year without having to compete with Milsap and splitter for boards. I bet Horford averages somewhere around 17.5 and 9.5 this year.

[chambers]

Horford also isn't the rebounder Sullinger

Put Sully along Milsap and he would not get as many rebounds as Horford did.   Horford for his career is a better rebounder than Sully.   It was only when Milsap came that his numbers dipped.  Relax, all the teams passed on spending big bucks on Sully, it is going to be ok.   Our rebounding will be ok, Horford only averaged one less RPG and he can block shots and shoot better than Jared.

For arguments sake, Horford is not a better rebounder than Sully for his career.
Sully's career average per 36 is 11.1 rebounds per game with a 17.1 rebound %.

Horford for his career averages 9.1 rebounds per game with a 15.4% rebound rate.

Last season Sully averaged 12.7 rebounds per 36 with a 17.1% rebound rate.
Horford averaged 8.2 rebounds with a 12.4% rebound rate.

You can argue that playing with Millsap hurts Horford's numbers, but Sullinger played away from the basket for significant minutes on offense, which hurts his.


Although Horford is still an upgrade at almost every other facet of the game, Jared Sullinger is a better rebounder than Horford.

It's a little unfair to use per-36 for Sully, because he's neither averaged anywhere near those minutes nor can he with his weight. His stamina just isn't there with his weight, so it doesn't really matter if he has a higher per-36 rebounding percentage and/or numbers if he can only effectively play 25 minutes a night compared to Horford's 36 that he can actually play.

That said, we'll see Horford's rebounding numbers significantly increase this year without having to compete with Milsap and splitter for boards. I bet Horford averages somewhere around 17.5 and 9.5 this year.

Completely understand, my point is that when he was on the court, he was a better rebounder than Horford. Horford is not going to have the impact on the boards that Sully had. He will have a far greater positive net effect overall though.