Author Topic: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time  (Read 57385 times)

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Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #165 on: August 12, 2016, 06:43:58 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Why not just flip Smart, Rozier, and a 1st for Staukus, then? Let him compete for a starting role with AB, then hand him the keys when IT is ready to bounce for more $$. We would be better now and in the future.
Including Smart + the 1st is overpay.   Stauskas for Rozier is worth exploring.


The Celtics would not trade rozier for stauskas under any situation and nobody would seriously think they would. Stauskas will most likely be out of the league after his rookie contract

His summary from ROTOWORLD

"The 76ers picked up Stauskas in a trade from the Kings to acquire a first-round pick, so they aren't really tied to him. On top of multiple injuries, Stauskas did not play well and couldn't beat out guys like Isaiah Canaan and Hollis Thompson for playing time"


Rozier may very well prove to only be a fringe NBA player, but Stauskas has already proven he isn't any more than that. He had a great situation in Philly and he pooped all over the bed. Let it go LRBRD.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #166 on: August 12, 2016, 06:46:04 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

The basic gist is that we can all just assume that Boston is unwilling to move any of the Brooklyn picks for Noel or Okafor.  And since those are off the table and Boston presumably doesn't want to give up their best players, the two teams aren't much of a fit.   Key parts:

Quote
The Sixers want to move a big. The Celtics clearly want a big. Perfect match, right? There's just one problem: What does Boston have that the Sixers want?

Not much, to put it simply.


Quote
Could a package of Smart, Rozier and a first-round pick get it done? If I'm Colangelo, no, it can't. Those players certainly have good pedigrees and may still be productive NBA players, but that's not enough to pull the trigger on trading either Noel or Okafor.

We all know the Sixers need to move a big man. That doesn't mean they should give one away.

Makes sense.   I think any deal involving Okafor or Noel coming to Boston would likely need to involve a 3rd team... unless something drastic changes and Philly decides to just give away one of those guys for whatever offer they get.

Also, great point from a Philly fan in the comments who points out that despite how good Rozier looked in Summer League, he's still a guy who shot 29% and 22% from three in the NBA last year and is arguably worse than Nik Stauskas, who they already have.

Yeah, Stauskas is better if you disregard defense, ball handling, ability to finish at the rim, passing, rebounding, athleticism, shot creation, and heart.
Actually, if you look at what those guys did last year in the NBA (the basketball league they both play in), it's easy to come away with a belief Stauskas is better. 

Rozier:  1.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0 blocks, 0.2 steals, 27% shooting and 22% from three. 

Sauce:  8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 39% and 33% from three.

They are the same age.  So basically it's just about speculating how Rozier could perform with more minutes and whether he has potential to perform on the NBA level.

Yeah, no it's not. You'd have to totally disregard any shred of context to come to such a conclusion, such as:

- Rozier was a rookie last year while Stauskas was a third year player;

- Rozier played for the team with the third best record in the East behind an All-Star point guard, a 1st team All-Defense selection, a candidate for sixth man of the year in Turner, and a promising young number six pick;

- Stauskas barely got minutes on the literal worst team in the league that didn't even have NBA-level guards for the majority of the year.

So, yeah, if you disregard those facts, I guess you could come to such a conclusion...  ::)

owned
End nonsense concept....

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #167 on: August 12, 2016, 06:48:02 PM »

Offline MBunge

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

That article is essentially useless because the author significantly overvalues both Noel and Okafor.  He says Smart, Rozier and a 1st is not enough but there is ZERO evidence that anyone in the league is offering anything even close to that.  What you think something is worth means nothing.  The only thing that matters is what someone else is willing to pay.

Mike
What the seller thinks someone/something is worth means everything.   What someone else is willing to pay is only relevant if the seller needs to sell.  Philly no doubt would prefer to make a sale, but they don't actually need to do anything.   If Smart + Rozier + a 1st isn't enough for Philly to trade Noel (or Okafor), they will probably not accept that offer.

There's only two years left on Noel's rookie deal and, as we've seen, it's almost impossible to trade a guy if he's playing out his final year on a qualifying offer.  They have two other top 3 lottery picks who play the same position and a #1 pick and a Euro prospect who play the only other position to which Noel could possibly move.  They NEED to trade Noel (or Okafor).  That isn't up for debate.

The only thing that would change that is if some combination of Embiid/Saric/Simmons are so good that it reduces the possible pain of losing Noel for nothing, making Philly more willing to take risks with what they do with him.

But...if Embiid/Saric/Simmons turn out to NOT be as good as people hope, that would only increase the need to trade Noel or Okafor because Philly would have to get as much as possible and couldn't risk the trade value of either degrading any further.

Mike

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #168 on: August 12, 2016, 06:53:56 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #169 on: August 12, 2016, 07:05:54 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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CSN Philly ran an article on it.  http://www.csnphilly.com/philadelphia-76ers/sixers-need-move-big-celtics-not-good-match

The basic gist is that we can all just assume that Boston is unwilling to move any of the Brooklyn picks for Noel or Okafor.  And since those are off the table and Boston presumably doesn't want to give up their best players, the two teams aren't much of a fit.   Key parts:

Quote
The Sixers want to move a big. The Celtics clearly want a big. Perfect match, right? There's just one problem: What does Boston have that the Sixers want?

Not much, to put it simply.


Quote
Could a package of Smart, Rozier and a first-round pick get it done? If I'm Colangelo, no, it can't. Those players certainly have good pedigrees and may still be productive NBA players, but that's not enough to pull the trigger on trading either Noel or Okafor.

We all know the Sixers need to move a big man. That doesn't mean they should give one away.

Makes sense.   I think any deal involving Okafor or Noel coming to Boston would likely need to involve a 3rd team... unless something drastic changes and Philly decides to just give away one of those guys for whatever offer they get.

Also, great point from a Philly fan in the comments who points out that despite how good Rozier looked in Summer League, he's still a guy who shot 29% and 22% from three in the NBA last year and is arguably worse than Nik Stauskas, who they already have.

Yeah, Stauskas is better if you disregard defense, ball handling, ability to finish at the rim, passing, rebounding, athleticism, shot creation, and heart.
Actually, if you look at what those guys did last year in the NBA (the basketball league they both play in), it's easy to come away with a belief Stauskas is better. 

Rozier:  1.8 points, 1.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0 blocks, 0.2 steals, 27% shooting and 22% from three. 

Sauce:  8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 steals, 39% and 33% from three.

They are the same age.  So basically it's just about speculating how Rozier could perform with more minutes and whether he has potential to perform on the NBA level.

Yeah, no it's not. You'd have to totally disregard any shred of context to come to such a conclusion, such as:

- Rozier was a rookie last year while Stauskas was a third year player;

- Rozier played for the team with the third best record in the East behind an All-Star point guard, a 1st team All-Defense selection, a candidate for sixth man of the year in Turner, and a promising young number six pick;

- Stauskas barely got minutes on the literal worst team in the league that didn't even have NBA-level guards for the majority of the year.

So, yeah, if you disregard those facts, I guess you could come to such a conclusion...  ::)

owned
End nonsense concept....
If we are judging them on their SUmmer League performances, you have to give the nod to Rozier.   If we're judging them on their NBA performances, you have to give the nod to Stauskas.  If we're diving back further and judging them based on their NCAA performances, the nod probably also goes to Stauskas.

We can only speculate what a prospect like Rozier would do in Stauskas position.   We've seen encouraging signs from Rozier, but it's the same kind of "encouraging" signs we saw out of guys like Glen Rice Jr, Seth Curry, Vander Blue, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and other guys who tore up the d-league/summer league levels.  It doesn't necessarily translate to the pros. 

I hope Rozier's performances translate to the pros.  But who knows.  Right now, he's a guy coming off a season averaging 1.8 points on 22% shooting.  Stauskas as least showed some signs of being able to hit threes on the NBA level.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2016, 07:13:29 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #170 on: August 12, 2016, 07:14:58 PM »

Offline bogg

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #171 on: August 12, 2016, 07:17:59 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.
That would be interesting if Philly fell for Rozier based on his Summer League performances.  NO-doubt, he was one of the three best players in Summer League this year.   But traditionally, that doesn't mean much.   They might want to wait a couple months and see Boston showcase Rozier on the NBA level before accepting him as a key piece in a trade package for one of their big man star prospects.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #172 on: August 12, 2016, 07:37:44 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.
That would be interesting if Philly fell for Rozier based on his Summer League performances.  NO-doubt, he was one of the three best players in Summer League this year.   But traditionally, that doesn't mean much.   They might want to wait a couple months and see Boston showcase Rozier on the NBA level before accepting him as a key piece in a trade package for one of their big man star prospects.

This is a totally fair and good point.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #173 on: August 12, 2016, 07:56:04 PM »

Offline bogg

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.
That would be interesting if Philly fell for Rozier based on his Summer League performances.  NO-doubt, he was one of the three best players in Summer League this year.   But traditionally, that doesn't mean much.   They might want to wait a couple months and see Boston showcase Rozier on the NBA level before accepting him as a key piece in a trade package for one of their big man star prospects.

Well there's the disconnect - Nerlens isn't a star prospect. If he was, Philly wouldn't be trading him, and if he was there'd be a strong market for his services. Boston doesn't really need him - he plays the same position as their big summer signing, they're already set to be a top defensive team that may or may not be able to score enough, and keeping him long term probably isn't compatible with their Plans A and B for next summer. Spare parts and spare picks is what he's worth to Boston - if Colangelo can dig up even a semi-premium asset from someone else they're welcome to him, but if not Boston can beat everyone else on sheer volume of potentially useful filler.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #174 on: August 12, 2016, 08:05:34 PM »

Offline mahonedog88

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.
That would be interesting if Philly fell for Rozier based on his Summer League performances.  NO-doubt, he was one of the three best players in Summer League this year.   But traditionally, that doesn't mean much.   They might want to wait a couple months and see Boston showcase Rozier on the NBA level before accepting him as a key piece in a trade package for one of their big man star prospects.

Well there's the disconnect - Nerlens isn't a star prospect. If he was, Philly wouldn't be trading him, and if he was there'd be a strong market for his services. Boston doesn't really need him - he plays the same position as their big summer signing, they're already set to be a top defensive team that may or may not be able to score enough, and keeping him long term probably isn't compatible with their Plans A and B for next summer. Spare parts and spare picks is what he's worth to Boston - if Colangelo can dig up even a semi-premium asset from someone else they're welcome to him, but if not Boston can beat everyone else on sheer volume of potentially useful filler.

Uh...excuse me?  Have you ever seen Nerlens Noel play?  Or Al Horford?  Horford is more of an outside threat, 3pt shooter type of big now at this point in his career, while Noel is strictly a rim protector and plays closer to the basket.  If Noel comes here, they play side by side and actually fit quite well together I would like to think.

And while yes, they were a top defensive team last year, that was without a true rim protector.  And no doubt there were numerous times last year that they had bad defensive breakdowns.  The goal in the East is always to beat Lebron.  Lebron's calling card is getting to the rim.  You aren't gonna beat the Cavs without rim protection, as we've seen the last couple of years.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #175 on: August 12, 2016, 08:10:39 PM »

Offline MBunge

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

This is like Galileo arguing with the Catholic Church, except you're putting the Sixers at the center of the universe.  Every wrong-headed argument you make ignores everything outside the Hinkie-verse.

For example, Noel could simply pull a Monroe and play for his qualifying offer, then sign with anyone he chooses and Philly gets NOTHING.

Mike

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #176 on: August 12, 2016, 08:14:34 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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While I completely agree that Philly doesn't have to  do anything, the problem is, the longer they hold Noel, his value decreases.
And that's what I'm trying to explain.   Say Philly would only trade Noel for a top 3 prospect like Dunn.   Maybe there's truth that his market value is a mid 1st right now.  Hence, noel hasn't been traded, because his market value is lower than what it would take for them to trade him.

What I disagree with, is the idea that his sinking market value is going to force a deal.   A mid 1st is a pretty insignificant investment to make in a prospect of Noels' caliber.  It's not terribly hard to acquire a mid 1st.   We just used a mid 1st on a reach of a prospect (Yabusele) that we are keeping overseas.   Mid 1sts aren't that big of a deal.    What people here are trying to say is that if Noel got a bunch of DNP's between now and the February 2017 trade deadline, he'd no longer be worth even a mid 1st.   So is he worth a late 1st then?   Those grow on trees.   Who cares.

The potential loss of a mid 1st isn't enough to panic-trade Noel for significantly less than they want.   Especially when you consider that there's a decent chance Noel's perceived market value will actually go UP between now and the trade deadline.   

Worst-case, the deadline comes and his perceived market value goes down to "Zero".   If that's the case, it probably means nobody is offering him a significant contract Summer 2017.   So Philly can keep him for cheap and he ends up being a disappointing bench player for the rest of his career on cheap money... which is basically what you're most likely to get with a mid 1st.

It's not his sinking market value that's going to force a deal, it's his agent. "Wait out the market" is fine for another month or two, but if he really does wind up in a three-way platoon at the center position he's going to wind up forcing a trade sooner rather than later. Nobody's actually talking about a one-for-one swap of Rozier and Noel, but rather including Rozier with some other non-premium players/picks. Maybe Philly can go back to Houston and get something built around Ariza and Dekker instead, but a couple pare firsts and a guy who played credibly in the playoffs is about what they're being offered for the foreseeable future.
That would be interesting if Philly fell for Rozier based on his Summer League performances.  NO-doubt, he was one of the three best players in Summer League this year.   But traditionally, that doesn't mean much.   They might want to wait a couple months and see Boston showcase Rozier on the NBA level before accepting him as a key piece in a trade package for one of their big man star prospects.

Comparing Rozier with Stauskas, really? I'm convinced you don't actually watch the games, you just look at boxscores for your really cool fantasy bball league. Stauskas sucks and you were dead wrong about him. Just own up to being wrong about yet another prediction. I'd figured you'd be used to being incorrect by now. See Bennett, Brooklyn record, Celtics record, Embiid's injury, and so goes the endless list of fallible forecasting.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #177 on: August 12, 2016, 08:29:16 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
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Guys, forget everything I've said thus far.  I think there's more to this than we think. 

I did a little detective work and inspected Nerlens Noel's "black" twitter profile picture to see if anything appeared in Photoshop when the exposure was increased.  Made a video:  https://youtu.be/4jSNLqAoQaE

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #178 on: August 12, 2016, 08:38:57 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Guys, forget everything I've said thus far.  I think there's more to this than we think. 

I did a little detective work and inspected Nerlens Noel's "black" twitter profile picture to see if anything appeared in Photoshop when the exposure was increased.  Made a video:  https://youtu.be/4jSNLqAoQaE

Good "Ken Burns" effect at the end.

Re: Nerlens Noel Tweet- Overreaction Time
« Reply #179 on: August 12, 2016, 08:41:02 PM »

Offline mef730

  • Antoine Walker
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Guys, forget everything I've said thus far.  I think there's more to this than we think. 

I did a little detective work and inspected Nerlens Noel's "black" twitter profile picture to see if anything appeared in Photoshop when the exposure was increased.  Made a video:  https://youtu.be/4jSNLqAoQaE

TP for amusing me.

Mike