Bleacher Report: Celtics to take Kris Dunn

[Beat LA]

Is Dunn better than Smart? That's what I'm hearing/reading so trade Smart for Noel? Go with a defensive grinding team that can't shoot!

I believe Dunn is on a whole other level compared to Smart - not even close. The only area where Smart has an advantage over Dunn is physical strength.  In every other aspect of the game Dunn is either on par with Smart (defense, rebounding, size) or significantly better (slashing, ball handling, passing, athleticism).

3 years ago Smart was better than Dunn was this year and they are the same age.

Also Id say Smarts a better defender and rebounder and Dunn turns it over at a higher rate.

No, he really wasn't.

I meant 13/14 Smart vs 15/16 Dunn.
16/6/5 with 2.5 steals on 12.5 shots a game with 3.5 turnovers = Dunn
18/5/6 with 3 steals on 12.5 shots a game with 2.6 turnovers = Smart
Smart had a better Drtg and Ortg also had a better BPM and more win shares and win shares per 48 he also had a better true shooting % and steal%.

I know what you meant, and I still disagree.  It's not just that his fg% was significantly lower than Dunn's, it's why that was the case.  Despite shooting 29% on 3s during his freshman year and 29.9% during his sophomore campaign, he still attempted 4 of them a games in 12-13 and upped that to 5.3 in 13-14.  In contrast, the most 3s per game that Dunn has ever taken was this past season, at 3.4, while taking 2.3 in 14-15.  Why is that important?  Because it shows that Kris knows who he is as a player, who is better suited attacking the basket, posting up, and taking midrange shots as opposed to just throwing up 3s for the hell of it.  Additionally, he also improved his 3pt% from .351 in 14-15 to .372 in 15-16, which is substantially better than what Smart showed while he was in college.  Yes, Kris can play out of control and turn the ball over more than you would like, but he did make an improvement in cutting down on them from 4.2 in 14-15 to 3.5 last year, so he's getting there, lol.  At least whenever he turns the ball over I can see that what he was trying to do was the right play, whereas with Smart I have absolutely no clue as to what goes on in his head on either end, lol .  Idk, man, I just like the guy #everybodyloveskris .

I'd also compare Smart unfavorably to GP II, who we should take, as well, imo.  Like Smart, Payton isn't a good 3pt shooter, even though there's nothing wrong with his form or whatever, imo, but like Dunn, he recognizes it, hence only attempting 3 per game in 14-15 on .293 and 2.2 per game this year on .314, and it reflects in his fg% over the past two seasons at .485 and .486, respectively.  Again, unlike Smart, but much like Dunn, his athleticism and quickness allows him to attack the hoop like Westbrook (really - he's that great of an athlete), but he can also post up, and he moves well without the ball (another facet of the game in which Marcus is hardly proficient).  All in all, both Dunn and Payton not only have infinitely better physical gifts than Smart, but also the skills, intelligence, and motors to be much better players than our Shaqtin' a Fool Nominee . Plus, even though they're great defenders, neither of them flop, so there's that.  I can't stand Smart's Artest/Rodman act.  Ugh.   

[D Dub]

Wait wait...Dunn also can't shoot from 3?

I don't get why Hield isn't the clear cut choice here.    Easily the best shooter in the draft, and he can defend 1-3.   What am I missing?

[Beat LA]

Wait wait...Dunn also can't shoot from 3?

I don't get why Hield isn't the clear cut choice here.    Easily the best shooter in the draft, and he can defend 1-3.   What am I missing?

He can defend 1-3?  Did I miss the memo?

[crimson_stallion]

Is Dunn better than Smart? That's what I'm hearing/reading so trade Smart for Noel? Go with a defensive grinding team that can't shoot!

I believe Dunn is on a whole other level compared to Smart - not even close. The only area where Smart has an advantage over Dunn is physical strength.  In every other aspect of the game Dunn is either on par with Smart (defense, rebounding, size) or significantly better (slashing, ball handling, passing, athleticism).

3 years ago Smart was better than Dunn was this year and they are the same age.

Also Id say Smarts a better defender and rebounder and Dunn turns it over at a higher rate.

Their overall stats are similar, but there are a few critical advantages Dunn has over Smart that makes him a far superior prospect for the NBA game:

1) Ball handling ability - it's a strength of Dunn's, and was considered a weakness for Smart

2) Passing ability - a strength for Dunn, and was considered a question mark for Smart

3) Athleticism - Dunn is an explosive athlete, while Smart's athleticism was questioned in 14/15

4) Shooting - Dunn has already put up solid 3PT shooting numbers two years straight, so he's proven he has potential to be at least an average (~ 35%) three point shooter at the NBA level, and he has a quality midrange game.  After two years in the NBA Smart still doesn't look like he'll ever be a capable jump shooter.

These are all key skills for an NBA guard.

Very fair. I think Dunn, looking back has a skillset that is much more likely to translate to stardom or something resembling it at the NBA level, while Smarts strengths (strength) and weaknesses(finishing over length, shooting, etc) would make what appeared to be an NBA ready guy a big project on one side of the ball in the NBA.

I more wanted to remind people that many thought Smart would come in and be great immediately. Many thought the FT rate would immediately transfer. He was scene as an NBA ready gaurd and held roughly in the same regard as Dunn. I dont want people to get ahead of themselves projecting Dunn here. He could follow a similar path as Smart where his offense doesnt immediately transfer.

If people expect Dunn to come in and be better than Smart from day one or at any point during year one I think they are gonna be dissapointed and we are gonna start seeing "Danny should have taken [insert player who had a random good game]" threads because people expect the guy ot come in and be Wade.

The issue is that I like both players and think both will be really good players in the NBA. Right now however, its pretty clear Dunn is the one in demand. I think he will be moved and we will forever look at him as the guy we almost had. Hopefully the guy we get is even better.

I get what you're saying, I just think that Smart had a lot of question marks from day one, and for the most part most of those concerns have proven to be legit.

Smart was seen as one of the more NBA-ready prospects in 14/15, but I think that had a lot to do with the fact that he had an NBA ready body, was pretty mature emotionally, and would be an NBA caliber defender from day one.  I think most people understood that his offensive game was limited (not non-existent, but limited) and I think there was always a lot of debate about how long that part of his game would take to break out, if at all.

With Dunn though, he really doesn't have any of those same question marks.  He's got an NBA ready body, he's an NBA ready athlete, and he's already an NBA caliber defender, passer and ball handler. 

With his explosive quickness and his ball handling, I don't really have concerns about whether Dunn will be able to get to the basket - it really shouldn't be a problem.  That ability to drive should also force opponents to sag off him on defense, and when they do give him that space I've got SOME confidence in his ability to take (and make) the jumper.  He's also got a nice pull up jumper from midrange which Smart has never really had, and he should be an absolute weapon in transition with his speed and finishing ability.

Once a guy has the ability to shoot the three, pull up from midrange, drive to the basket and finish in transition, I think that makes a person very difficult to guard.  You pretty much have to pick your poison - exactly the same reason why I still think Rozier has a lot of potential as a scorer once he gets some more experience under his belt.

Then to add to that, he's an outstanding passer - so once he gets to the basket if the defense collapses he can make difficult passes and find the open man.

I think don't think he'll be a 20 PPG scorer from day one, but I could see him being a 12 PPG - 15 PPG scorer as a rookie and developing into a >20 PPG scorer a couple of years from now.

Ultimately, I could see Dunn developing into a 20/8/5 guy.  If you look at Russell Westbrook for example - there isn't much Westbrook had in his game as a rookie that Dunn doesn't have right now.

[Coast2Coast]

If we draft Dunn I hope it is to trade him shortly afterwards.  He's the only guy in this draft that even resembles a top PG prospect and that makes me worry that his value is partially being pumped up because of that.  If I look ahead to next year's draft I think there can be at least 5 guys who are better PG prospects than Dunn is this year.

As others have said, I'll trust Danny if he decides to draft Dunn, but my inclination is to add some talent to our front court where it is sorely needed.  Between the 3, 4, and 5 we have exactly one average or above player on our roster (Crowder).  We can't just keep kicking that talent black hole down the road another year and expect our win totals to continue growing.

I agree 100%. I think Dunn will be a very good player, but hands down would prefer someone with the shooting capability such as Hield/Murray or Brown for positional needs and potential. I don't see Dunn helping us win more in the playoffs.

Not sure what everyone thinks we would be getting in return for Dunn besides the obvious Noel/Okafor.  I think we handcuff ourselves by drafting Dunn.

[MikeJelly]

Ugh I just want Jaylen Brown. Can we please not take guard

[crimson_stallion]

Wait wait...Dunn also can't shoot from 3?

I don't get why Hield isn't the clear cut choice here.    Easily the best shooter in the draft, and he can defend 1-3.   What am I missing?

He can defend 1-3?  Did I miss the memo?

He's got the exact same measurements as Marcus Smart other then that he's about 20 pounds lighter - which he potentially makes up for by being significantly more athletic.  We played Courtney Lee at the three quite a lot, and he wasn't really any bigger then Dunn.  Latrell Sprewell played a lot at the three later in his career too, and he was around Dunn's size.  Harden isn't really significantly bigger either (he stands at 6'5" so only 1" taller).   

It's a wee stretch, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that he could be able to defend threes in some matchups. 

Edit:
Sorry, just realised you were talking about Hield, not Dunn.  Hield is actually slightly bigger then Smart (6'5") - he should have no issues again threes except maybe the absolute biggest/strongest of them (e.g. Lebron, Joe Johnson).

[tarheelsxxiii]

If selected and kept, I hope he's given a chance to play. He should be ready to earn minutes right away.

[crimson_stallion]

If we draft Dunn I hope it is to trade him shortly afterwards.  He's the only guy in this draft that even resembles a top PG prospect and that makes me worry that his value is partially being pumped up because of that.  If I look ahead to next year's draft I think there can be at least 5 guys who are better PG prospects than Dunn is this year.

As others have said, I'll trust Danny if he decides to draft Dunn, but my inclination is to add some talent to our front court where it is sorely needed.  Between the 3, 4, and 5 we have exactly one average or above player on our roster (Crowder).  We can't just keep kicking that talent black hole down the road another year and expect our win totals to continue growing.

I agree 100%. I think Dunn will be a very good player, but hands down would prefer someone with the shooting capability such as Hield/Murray or Brown for positional needs and potential. I don't see Dunn helping us win more in the playoffs.

Not sure what everyone thinks we would be getting in return for Dunn besides the obvious Noel/Okafor.  I think we handcuff ourselves by drafting Dunn.

I don't think you worry too much about this if you are Danny.

If you have a chance to take a guy with All-Star potential (which I think Dunn certainly has) then you've got to take that guy.

If he's as good as advertised then he will get his minutes one way or the other, you'll build the team around him, and you'll trade anybody who has to be traded in order to get him the role he deserves.

Unless you are in a position like the Clippers were in with Bledsoe, but that was different because Bledsoe was 6'1" and CP3 was 6'0" so you could never realistically start those guys together.

Dunn at 6'4" can easily play off the ball.   

[kozlodoev]

Dunn at 6'4" can easily play off the ball.

Well, there's the part where he's never played off the ball and he can't shoot.

[alldaboston]

Dunn at 6'4" can easily play off the ball.

Well, there's the part where he's never played off the ball and he can't shoot.

He shot 37% from 3 this season, so it's not like he cant shoot.

[colincb]

Dunn at 6'4" can easily play off the ball.

Well, there's the part where he's never played off the ball and he can't shoot.

He shot 37% from 3 this season, so it's not like he cant shoot.

Can create his own shot too, which is a major concern at the NBA level with Hield and Murray.

[colincb]

Just watched the NBA TV mock draft with Stu Jackson, Seth Davis, and David Aldridge. It was clear that all three thought the best player available after the top 2 was Dunn (they slotted Bender to us, however, probably because of fit). Aldridge said Dunn was the best player in the draft(!), Davis said we might look back in 5 years and say that, and Stu Jackson was high on him too. I left the show thinking this is the guy they would pick at 3 for sure. I would too, but I can see the case for other guys outside of Chriss.

OTOH, I was surprised on how hard they were on Jaylen Brown. Apparently, he has turned many people off in interviews. On the court, they noted his tendency to disappear, his poor play at the end of the season, and his shooting (they did not seem to realize that he aced his one-on-none exam). Out of the top 10 prospects, he got the worst reviews. I do not see him quite that bad because he plays defense by moving his feet and anticipating/reacting well. They did not touch on what I perceive to be his low offensive BBIQ. However, I might be wrong because he's so raw offensively that his only move appears to a bully ball rush to the hoop in half court sets and if you shut him off from the rim, he has no second move. He is obviously smart, but maybe in a Rondoesque way. Anyway, they slotted Brown 8th to SAC. SAC could not get one top prospect to tryout, so they're desperate to take anyone left, but I left the show wondering whether they thought Brown might slide otherwise. I do not know how he could slide with Chriss going in the 3-8 group too, but that's how I interpreted their analysis.

They also gave us Richardson at 16, but were clearly higher on Valentine who they slotted at 18 to the Pistons. They did like Thon Maker a lot at 23 for the Cs even if he is extremely raw. It was clear that these three liked players who played hard, but they did think Maker  had the talent to be that high. Otherwise they really dumped on Labissierre whom they had going to ORL at 11 and they were also tough on Damian Jones who they had going to at 22 to CHA.

Two thoughts before I head to bed. I came away from watching this program thinking that Dunn was the only PG in this draft I would be interested in and that PG is a real weakness of this draft in what is a PG-driven league. The NBA TV  mock for instance slotted Baldwin to the Bulls at 14 and then they noted that he has no idea on how to run a team's offense (and he can't shoot either). So my second thought is that maybe there is a deal possible with the Bulls to move Rozier for the 14th pick. I thought this might fly IF there was someone we liked at 14 AND we had picked Dunn already. I thought Rozier showed well late in the year and supposedly the Bulls were high on him last draft. They got Grant and Calderon in the Rose deal, but I would rank Rozier higher than Grant and I think Calderon isn't long for the Bulls.

~~~

Just for the record my ranking:

Dunn
Hield
Bender (maybe higher depending on what Danny thinks)
Murray
Brown
Chriss (no thanks)

Would consider trade with Sixers, but not giving up #3 without more trade consideration than just Okafor.

[byennie]

Jaylen Brown seems like the classic prospect that got rated way too high (no fault of his own), and then everyone realizes it was nuts.

Brown at #16 is a nice gamble. #3 heck no.

[LarBrd33]

I'm sure if we end up with Dunn, it's because Ainge thinks he's the best option so I'm not all that worried... but I can't say I'm all that excited about adding a 23 year old injury-prone rookie who plays the most bountiful position in the nba, supposedly is unlikely to be an all-star, and supposedly can't shoot.   Kind of had higher hopes with the pick than adding another guard that we may or may not have 5-15 minutes per game for.

But if that's the pick... I'll just be waiting for that other shoe to drop, because I can't imagine we'd ride into next season with Thomas, Bradley, Smart, Dunn, Rozier, Hunter, Turner and Young.