Number of Kyler tweets on Cs, Bender, Sixers Trade

[saltlover]

wow.

Thats the second expert (Chad Ford  being the first) to suggest that it is Boston rather than Philly dealing from the position of power in the Okafor talks.
 since no one has refuted this claim this makes it fact in the LarBrd school of logic.

Sure, let's go with it.  Okafor AND Stauskas for #3?...  I'd weep tears of joy.

Would you rather have Sauce Castillo or Covington?

I still think Sauce can develop into a decent shooter.

I've never heard of this prolific twitterer named Steven Kyler.  I wonder if Okafor, Sauce and Covington is even enough for #3.   Someone please reach out to Kyler and ask if Philly would also throw in the #1 pick.

You'd never heard of Kyler before?

No.  I've heard of basketballinsiders though.   

I assume we'll see a lot of posturing until the draft.   Even if Boston is willing to give up #3 straight up for Okafor, they really can't do it until we see who goes #1 and #2.   Until then, Boston has every incentive to keep giving off the impression that the #3 pick is super duper valuable.

So you mock Steve #####, but post fan posts from other sites when it fits your narrative? Classically bizarre.

Eddie, that spelling mistake in Kyler's last name looks bad...

[mmmmm]

wow.

Thats the second expert (Chad Ford  being the first) to suggest that it is Boston rather than Philly dealing from the position of power in the Okafor talks.
 since no one has refuted this claim this makes it fact in the LarBrd school of logic.

Its hard to judge any philly players, but Covington seems to be the closest thing to a 2-way player on that team.

He has swing size and can shoot threes pretty well and from what Ive heard defend. That sounds like a terrific fit coming off the bench behind Crowder.

I'm with them, I don't think the Cs have to settle for giving up 3 for Okafor. My plan is for #16, Young/Hunter/Rozier, 2017 Brooklyn pick for Okafor

Not sure Okafor is that undervalued, however I like the way you are thinking with next year's Brooklyn pick. I'm not as convinced as others that the Brooklyn picks moving forward will gain value. They hired a decent replacement GM (worked for the Spurs I think), who seems to know what he's doing, and they have no reason to be bad despite their lack of being able to draw free agents. Maybe hold on to Brooklyn's pick for one more year

Having said that, I would be pitching the future Brooklyn picks now based off the hype of this year's pick, sort like how people are hot for Bender because of Poryzingis (in this copy-cat league).

I'm not sure that we will see another top 3 pick any time soon, and with uncertainty in the trade market and free agency I think we should use the pick (unless we know there is a trade coming).

So, if we use the pick- I'm really warming up to Jaylen Brown. He reminds me of a stronger, more athletic Kawhi (if that's believable). But, seriously watch some clips of Kawhi at Jaylen's age and you will see that Jaylen is already more built, with better hops and better shooting form.

I see some Draymond Green in him as well, and with his strength he could play some 4 in a small-ball line up, much like Green does.

TLDR- use pick on Brown unless trade is promised and shop future picks. Maybe keep their pick for one more year 

I get what you are saying in regards to Brooklyn, I just can't name many teams that should be worse than them next year. You have to assume both Philly and LA won't be blatantly tanking next year, most teams on the verge of a blowup seem to be holding their star. I could see brooklyn being atleast a bottom 8 team next year. And in a deeper draft, that's a valuable thing. Maybe Memphis blows it up.

Get rid of the brooklyn 18. They should atleast be overpaying a few guys by then. Should be middling at that point.

I think we won't have a clear idea on how good/bad the BKN 17 pick will be until we see what they do this off-season.  If they manage to convince two or three half-way decent FAs to come on board, combined with Lopez and Young they might be able to climb out of the deep lottery.  I think they'd still be in the lottery, but maybe just barely.

If they deal Lopez and/or Young for picks, they could be really, really really bad, though.  And arguably, that's what they should do. Yes, they'd be helping "our" pick.  But they would have some other picks to at least rebuild with.

Until we see which way they decide to go, that pick could be anywhere from #1 to #14.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

With respect to the comment on Bender, yes it is a risk because he does not have much tape at this level.  But don't compare his stats to Porzingis, who is more than two years older than Bender.  Need to go back at least two year for Porzingis to get the idea.

Completely agree that's not a fair comp,

Pau Gasol at 18 in 13min 4pts 2.3rb

Porzingis at 18 15min 7pts 2.8rb

Bender  at 18 10min 2pt 1.4rb

Saric at 18 14min 4pt 3rb

Mirotic at 18 3.4min 0.8pt 0rb

This. This all day and twice on Tuesdays. TP

[saltlover]

wow.

Thats the second expert (Chad Ford  being the first) to suggest that it is Boston rather than Philly dealing from the position of power in the Okafor talks.
 since no one has refuted this claim this makes it fact in the LarBrd school of logic.

Its hard to judge any philly players, but Covington seems to be the closest thing to a 2-way player on that team.

He has swing size and can shoot threes pretty well and from what Ive heard defend. That sounds like a terrific fit coming off the bench behind Crowder.

I'm with them, I don't think the Cs have to settle for giving up 3 for Okafor. My plan is for #16, Young/Hunter/Rozier, 2017 Brooklyn pick for Okafor

Not sure Okafor is that undervalued, however I like the way you are thinking with next year's Brooklyn pick. I'm not as convinced as others that the Brooklyn picks moving forward will gain value. They hired a decent replacement GM (worked for the Spurs I think), who seems to know what he's doing, and they have no reason to be bad despite their lack of being able to draw free agents. Maybe hold on to Brooklyn's pick for one more year

Having said that, I would be pitching the future Brooklyn picks now based off the hype of this year's pick, sort like how people are hot for Bender because of Poryzingis (in this copy-cat league).

I'm not sure that we will see another top 3 pick any time soon, and with uncertainty in the trade market and free agency I think we should use the pick (unless we know there is a trade coming).

So, if we use the pick- I'm really warming up to Jaylen Brown. He reminds me of a stronger, more athletic Kawhi (if that's believable). But, seriously watch some clips of Kawhi at Jaylen's age and you will see that Jaylen is already more built, with better hops and better shooting form.

I see some Draymond Green in him as well, and with his strength he could play some 4 in a small-ball line up, much like Green does.

TLDR- use pick on Brown unless trade is promised and shop future picks. Maybe keep their pick for one more year 

I get what you are saying in regards to Brooklyn, I just can't name many teams that should be worse than them next year. You have to assume both Philly and LA won't be blatantly tanking next year, most teams on the verge of a blowup seem to be holding their star. I could see brooklyn being atleast a bottom 8 team next year. And in a deeper draft, that's a valuable thing. Maybe Memphis blows it up.

Get rid of the brooklyn 18. They should atleast be overpaying a few guys by then. Should be middling at that point.

I think we won't have a clear idea on how good/bad the BKN 17 pick will be until we see what they do this off-season.  If they manage to convince two or three half-way decent FAs to come on board, combined with Lopez and Young they might be able to climb out of the deep lottery.  I think they'd still be in the lottery, but maybe just barely.

If they deal Lopez and/or Young for picks, they could be really, really really bad, though.  And arguably, that's what they should do. Yes, they'd be helping "our" pick.  But they would have some other picks to at least rebuild with.

Until we see which way they decide to go, that pick could be anywhere from #1 to #14.

That pick could be from #1-10.  They just have too much ground to make up to finish anywhere near the playoffs.  It's not just about the decisions they make -- it's about the choices they have.  They can't just snap their fingers and be a playoff contender.

[saltlover]

Two things seem to be emerging:

1. Bender stock is falling, at least for now.
2. 3 pick is an over-pay for Okafor, and Philly will have to add juice to make trade work.

3.  Philly is not in the driver's seat on the Noel/Okafor front. 

It's not about the value.  We all agree that the #3 for Okafor would be a pretty fair trade.  It's that Philly (because of Hinkie) are in this pinch with 4 high-draft pick PF/Cs on the roster and the #1 pick in a draft where the top-2 talents are basically PFs.

When the other team has to trade...you are in power.

This is actually incorrect.  What matters not is how many PF/C types Philly has and thus needs to trade, what matters is how many teams want young PF/C's, and how many are available.

If, for example, 10 teams want such a player, and there are only 5 surplus PF/C on the trade market or in free agency, then Philly is in the drivers seat, because they control the market, and demand is greater than supply.  If, on the other hand, there are 10 such surplus PF/C available, and only 5 teams looking for them, then Philly will be in trouble.

(I'm using the term "surplus", because while Philly might trade any of their 5 such players, they'd only trade 3 at the very most.  So while 5 could be on the market, only 3, or maybe just 1 or 2, would be moved.  Again, this is a hypothetical, but I'm just trying to explain market power.)

[Eddie20]

wow.

Thats the second expert (Chad Ford  being the first) to suggest that it is Boston rather than Philly dealing from the position of power in the Okafor talks.
 since no one has refuted this claim this makes it fact in the LarBrd school of logic.

Sure, let's go with it.  Okafor AND Stauskas for #3?...  I'd weep tears of joy.

Would you rather have Sauce Castillo or Covington?

I still think Sauce can develop into a decent shooter.

I've never heard of this prolific twitterer named Steven Kyler.  I wonder if Okafor, Sauce and Covington is even enough for #3.   Someone please reach out to Kyler and ask if Philly would also throw in the #1 pick.

You'd never heard of Kyler before?

No.  I've heard of basketballinsiders though.   

I assume we'll see a lot of posturing until the draft.   Even if Boston is willing to give up #3 straight up for Okafor, they really can't do it until we see who goes #1 and #2.   Until then, Boston has every incentive to keep giving off the impression that the #3 pick is super duper valuable.

So you mock Steve #####, but post fan posts from other sites when it fits your narrative? Classically bizarre.

Eddie, that spelling mistake in Kyler's last name looks bad...

Autocorrect strikes again

[mmmmm]

With respect to the comment on Bender, yes it is a risk because he does not have much tape at this level.  But don't compare his stats to Porzingis, who is more than two years older than Bender.  Need to go back at least two year for Porzingis to get the idea.

Completely agree that's not a fair comp,

Pau Gasol at 18 in 13min 4pts 2.3rb

Porzingis at 18 15min 7pts 2.8rb

Bender  at 18 10min 2pt 1.4rb

Saric at 18 14min 4pt 3rb

Mirotic at 18 3.4min 0.8pt 0rb

That's not quite correct.  Even if you include the 10 EuroLeague and Eurocup games (in which Bender barely appeared), he averaged 12.9 mpg, 4.45 points and 2.53 rebounds.

If you just look at his 28 regular Israeli BSL games, he has averaged 14.5 mpg, 5.5 points & 3.0 rebounds.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/Dragan-Bender/Summary/41582

[dreamgreen]

I didn't like this:

Kyler: Bender not the top guy on Boston's board... they are very high on Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss

Not a fan of either one.

Yea me neither but I'll trust in Danny.

[LarBrd33]

I didn't like this:

Kyler: Bender not the top guy on Boston's board... they are very high on Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss

Not a fan of either one.

So is Kyler suggesting that both Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss are individually "a lot more" valuable than Jahlil Okafor? 

Fascinating.

A bird in the hand.... Okafor is certainly safer, but I don't think it's hard to imagine how Chriss could be the more dominant NBA player.

I agree with your previous post about posturing. I don't think Philly can command more than #3 for Okafor in their current position, and they indeed might have to throw in Covington to make the move. But it's not like anything should be taken as real between now and the draft.... it's all calculated bull**** being managed and "leaked" by the teams with a desired result until the last minute.

Back in February we reported offered a package built around the Brooklyn pick for Okafor and Philly turned us down.   This was when the pick still had the potential to land top 2.

Just a few months later with the pick locked out of the top 2, if this guy's opinion is accurate, we not only wouldn't trade #3 for Okafor, but we'd want more? 

Yeah, ok.

[colincb]

Kyler: ...You are massively overvaluing Bender and undervaluing Okafor.…  had a lengthy conversation with some folks around [Bender] recently - not good things being said about Bender. …There is so much we do not know about Bender because he does not play much... hard to invest in that scenario. ...Bender could end up being a lot more Darko than people are willing to admit.,,, If you think you have Bender figured out after 208 possessions this year... good for you. Just asking - if Bender is such a game changing star in the waiting, why doesn't he play? Porzinigis over 20 per game... Mario Hezonja around 16 per. Much larger sample size on both. … No. There is a lot of talent there, but talent is one part of the equation.

https://twitter.com/stevekylerNBA

Wow.  I'm sorry, but there is just so much evidence that Kyler has done no research here that this is pretty much worthless.

Bender has been on the floor for WAY more than 208 possessions this season for Maccabi.   He's been on the floor for just under 500 minutes (including both IBSL & Euroleague games).  The typical ratio is a little more than two possessions per minute, which means he's been on the floor close to 1000 possessions.

His comparisons to Porzingis and Hezonja are also reflective of a complete absence of research and understanding of the different contexts for each of these players.

I get that sports writers and 'analysts' and of course most fans here look at Bender and see a giant void of information.

But the Celtics have had their international scout, Benas Matkevicius, following him closely and Austin Ainge has made several trips out to see him.  They already know a ton more about him than folks like Kyler.  And they'll have him in for a workout at Waltham.

That doesn't mean they will pick him at #3.   But they aren't going to rank him based on the same level of ignorance exhibited here.

Frankly, this stuff from Kyler all sounds like more smoke from Danny.  Combining this with the stuff from Ford and Givony's recent draft board rearrangements and it all looks like Danny is putting out a mess of different signals.

It may well be smoke from Danny. I think Kyler and Ford both think Danny's a major bluffer and always a wild card.

As for Bender's minutes, you're counting the Israeli winner league games. Not sure other people give that league much consideration as far as being real competition to Macabbi who has won 51 out of 61 titles there.

[PhoSita]

I worry about Danny when he falls in love with American athletes who seem to be "undervalued" because of little things like not having a jumpshot, not having a true position, or having attitude / BBIQ issues.

[LarBrd33]

Kyler: ...You are massively overvaluing Bender and undervaluing Okafor.…  had a lengthy conversation with some folks around [Bender] recently - not good things being said about Bender. …There is so much we do not know about Bender because he does not play much... hard to invest in that scenario. ...Bender could end up being a lot more Darko than people are willing to admit.,,, If you think you have Bender figured out after 208 possessions this year... good for you. Just asking - if Bender is such a game changing star in the waiting, why doesn't he play? Porzinigis over 20 per game... Mario Hezonja around 16 per. Much larger sample size on both. … No. There is a lot of talent there, but talent is one part of the equation.

https://twitter.com/stevekylerNBA

Wow.  I'm sorry, but there is just so much evidence that Kyler has done no research here that this is pretty much worthless.

Bender has been on the floor for WAY more than 208 possessions this season for Maccabi.   He's been on the floor for just under 500 minutes (including both IBSL & Euroleague games).  The typical ratio is a little more than two possessions per minute, which means he's been on the floor close to 1000 possessions.

His comparisons to Porzingis and Hezonja are also reflective of a complete absence of research and understanding of the different contexts for each of these players.

I get that sports writers and 'analysts' and of course most fans here look at Bender and see a giant void of information.

But the Celtics have had their international scout, Benas Matkevicius, following him closely and Austin Ainge has made several trips out to see him.  They already know a ton more about him than folks like Kyler.  And they'll have him in for a workout at Waltham.

That doesn't mean they will pick him at #3.   But they aren't going to rank him based on the same level of ignorance exhibited here.

Frankly, this stuff from Kyler all sounds like more smoke from Danny.  Combining this with the stuff from Ford and Givony's recent draft board rearrangements and it all looks like Danny is putting out a mess of different signals.

It may well be smoke from Danny. I think Kyler and Ford both think Danny's a major bluffer and always a wild card.

As for Bender's minutes, you're counting the Israeli winner league games. Not sure other people give that league much consideration as far as being real competition to Macabbi who has won 51 out of 61 titles there.

Sounds like this Kyler fellow is super down on Bender.  Here's a quote from him from a couple days ago:

As for the Okafor for Bender? Sure if you want to massive downgrade in talent. I know people see Porzingis and try and make that leap with bender, but he’s not remotely that guy. He may take a year or more to find his way in the NBA and his ceiling is not nearly as high as Okafor. I like Bender in the long-term but Jahlil is far and away the better player.

He also says Okafor could go as high as 2nd in this draft:



So, it's a bit weird for him to say that Boston would want "a lot more" than just Okafor for the #3 pick if by his own admission Okafor is better than anyone available at #3 - and possibly even anyone available at #2.

[wry791]

Steve Kyler heads Basketball Insiders, is plugged into ORL Magic in particular, and is the most prolific BB pundit on Twitter. I’m editing the tweets a bit to keep unrelated info to a minimum.

====

Your guess who's the first team to go off the chart with a surprise pick? Who it might be?

Kyler: Lakers could, Boston likely... the next 6 picks could be any combination of 15 guys.

====

Jeff Teague or trade Okafor for the 3rd pick and draft Sunn? Dunn vs Teague? I like dunn

Kyler: You are assuming thats possible to do... Boston not moving the 3 just for Okafor, would take a lot more.
 

====

Bender does nothing for Celtics for 3 years though.

Kyler: Bender not the top guy on Boston's board... they are very high on Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss

===

if the trade is OK4, Covington and Stauskas for 3 and Young, I think Boston does it.

Kyler: I think they might too...
 
[Note - Covington and Stauskas are being mentioned in the Teague-Noel rumored trade too]
 
====

Bender  tweet combined I think the point he makes about how little time Bender's played compared to Zinger and Hezonja is a solid one.

Kyler: ...You are massively overvaluing Bender and undervaluing Okafor.…  had a lengthy conversation with some folks around [Bender] recently - not good things being said about Bender. …There is so much we do not know about Bender because he does not play much... hard to invest in that scenario. ...Bender could end up being a lot more Darko than people are willing to admit.,,, If you think you have Bender figured out after 208 possessions this year... good for you. Just asking - if Bender is such a game changing star in the waiting, why doesn't he play? Porzinigis over 20 per game... Mario Hezonja around 16 per. Much larger sample size on both. … No. There is a lot of talent there, but talent is one part of the equation.



https://twitter.com/stevekylerNBA

I think Ainge is flooding the rumor mill with everything and anything. He doesn't want anyone to have any idea who he likes, along with increasing the value of #3

[mahcus smaht]

I didn't like this:

Kyler: Bender not the top guy on Boston's board... they are very high on Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss

Not a fan of either one.

So is Kyler suggesting that both Jaylen Brown and Marquese Chriss are individually "a lot more" valuable than Jahlil Okafor? 

Fascinating.

A bird in the hand.... Okafor is certainly safer, but I don't think it's hard to imagine how Chriss could be the more dominant NBA player.

I agree with your previous post about posturing. I don't think Philly can command more than #3 for Okafor in their current position, and they indeed might have to throw in Covington to make the move. But it's not like anything should be taken as real between now and the draft.... it's all calculated bull**** being managed and "leaked" by the teams with a desired result until the last minute.

Back in February we reported offered a package built around the Brooklyn pick for Okafor and Philly turned us down.   This was when the pick still had the potential to land top 2.

Just a few months later with the pick locked out of the top 2, if this guy's opinion is accurate, we not only wouldn't trade #3 for Okafor, but we'd want more? 

Yeah, ok.

Well it doesnt make sense if you believe 1 report as gospel and base the other's truth value off of it.

Just because a rumor is reported, makes sense, and is not refuted does not make it fact.

Instead, it makes it likely.

Still, Id be shocked if we got more than Okafor for #3. Id be peeved if we gave up substantially more than 3 at for Okafor.

[dreamgreen]

I worry about Danny when he falls in love with American athletes who seem to be "undervalued" because of little things like not having a jumpshot, not having a true position, or having attitude / BBIQ issues.

I hate when he drafts defense first guards!