Has this series hurt the Celtics chances of landing Horford this off season?

[kozlodoev]

So, yeah.  Best center in the NBA, and it's not particularly close.  Lots of great players have had 33 win seasons. Notable guys who won 33 games or less?  2007 Paul Pierce (24 wins), 2007 Kevin Garnett (32 wins), 2007 Ray Allen (31 wins).  Clearly those are all guys that teams should have stayed away from if they wanted a title.

Except 33 wins is a career-high for Cousins. He's averaged something of the order of 28 wins over his career so far. He's not the first star player to toil on some horrible teams, but he's definitely the most futile one in such an endeavor that I can think of. So, no.

edit: I lied, Kevin Love was worse. Which is a telling example, given how Love has suddenly looked mortal after he moved to Cleveland.

[biggs]

You don't sign that guy on a Max deal. No way.

You want to hand out a Max deal on a Big? Go get Whiteside.

Right? Whiteside is the real deal!

I have to say though, getting a good look at what Horford brings to the table, I want him on the c's, maybe not for the max, but I want him here.

He is incredibly active for an undersized big, and gets a lot of blocks.  Plus that game with all the threes...

I get why people don't want him, especially for the max, because he kind of feels like a Sheed signing, given his age and what we expect from him given his past play. Sheed didn't exactly mesh well, and he certainly didn't pan out the way all of us hoped he would.

Having said that, if the money and his age are the main issue, I still say we go for him, simply because even at his age, he would be the most high profile free agent we have ever signed, and that would be good for drawing national interest in our team from other players.

[mmmmm]

The problem with your theory here is that unlike many guys at the age of 29, Horford is ALREADY showing significant signs of decline.

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career

On his per 36 scoring:  Horford's USG% was the lowest this year in the past 4 seasons as ATL has moved the scoring load over to Milsap and Teague.   Whether that is due to a decline in Horford or an ascension of Millsap or simply reflecting team long-term goals is debatable.   Millsap is actually older, but under long term contract.

On his rebounding:  Most of Horford's rebounding drop is from the offensive end, where he's grabbing fewer ORBs because he's taking more 3PT shots (his 3PAr was WAY higher this year than any prior season) and setting more high screens for Teague, and thus playing farther away from the basket.   He also has a slight drop on the DRB side because Millsap usually takes post defense and Horford tends to be the high-paint defender and the guy assigned to the opposing 'stretch' big.

On his FG%:  Again, this is a symptom of the increase in 3PAr.  Increasing 3PT attempts will tend to reduce FG%.  However, Horford's eFG% (.547) was above his career average (.543) and his TS% (.565) was still very good and only slightly below his career average (.570).  I.E. - he is still a very efficient scorer.  Amir was our only player with a higher TS% than Horford (and largely because Amir took comparatively far more of his shots in close to the hoop).

On his FTAr:   Again, taking more outside shots will tend to reduce the number of FTA that a player gets.   

These trends are part of the price of Horford transforming his game into more of a 'stretch big' who can hit the 3PT shot.

I'm not going to necessarily assert that signing Horford to a max deal is necessarily, "the answer".  I think the answer is more subtle and depends on multiple factors.

But I don't take those particular numbers as any clear indication of decline in Horford's game.  I think the numbers you cited are really just symptoms of a strategic _change_ in his game. 

Horford's various 'advanced stat' metrics all stayed pretty solid, posting PER, WS, WS/48, BPM & VORP numbers well above his career averages.

[LooseCannon]

Paying a 30 year old non-superstar $25 million per year is a lot less appealing than paying the best center in the league (age 25) a total of $32 million over the next two seasons.

That'd be the "best center" who teamed up with the "best point guard" to lead their franchise to eye-popping 33 wins last season?

If you are under the impression that Rondo is the "best point guard," then you are mistaken, sir. I'd also like to see you make a legitimate, stat-based argument for anyone beside Boogie Cousins as the best Center.

What, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond not good enough for you?

Cousins must have posted the least impactful 25 points and 12 rebounds in recent NBA history. The guy is a loser, stat padder, and a coach killer. Just stay away.

DeAndre is definitely not as good, and Drummond isn't in the same stratosphere as the other two. You can't name a better Center because there isn't one.

PPG is an overrated stat and why Jamal Crawford has a shelf full of undeserved SMOY awards.

Here is who should be in the conversation for top centers, based on advanced metrics.  (WS/48, BPM, VORP, taken from basketball-reference.com)

Nikola Jokic .185/4.8/3.0
Andrew Bogut .179/4.4/2.4
Tim Duncan .163/4.1/2.4
Al Horford .172/4.1/4.1
Pau Gasol .149/4.0/3.5
Rudy Gobert .165/3.7/3.8
DeAndre Jordan .213/3.4/3.5
Mason Plumlee .140/2.8/2.5
Karl-Anthony Towns .151/2.7/3.1
DeMarcus Cousins .122/2.6/2.6
Hassan Whiteside .233/2.5/2.4

also, for comparison

Andre Drummond .133/-.05/1.0
Jahlil Okafor .037/-.41/-.08
Enes Kanter .226/-1.7/0.1
Al Jefferson .123/-1.1/0.2

[Roy H.]

Paying a 30 year old non-superstar $25 million per year is a lot less appealing than paying the best center in the league (age 25) a total of $32 million over the next two seasons.

That'd be the "best center" who teamed up with the "best point guard" to lead their franchise to eye-popping 33 wins last season?

If you are under the impression that Rondo is the "best point guard," then you are mistaken, sir. I'd also like to see you make a legitimate, stat-based argument for anyone beside Boogie Cousins as the best Center.

What, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond not good enough for you?

Cousins must have posted the least impactful 25 points and 12 rebounds in recent NBA history. The guy is a loser, stat padder, and a coach killer. Just stay away.

DeAndre is definitely not as good, and Drummond isn't in the same stratosphere as the other two. You can't name a better Center because there isn't one.

PPG is an overrated stat and why Jamal Crawford has a shelf full of undeserved SMOY awards.

Here is who should be in the conversation for top centers, based on advanced metrics.  (WS/48, BPM, VORP, taken from basketball-reference.com)

Nikola Jokic .185/4.8/3.0
Andrew Bogut .179/4.4/2.4
Tim Duncan .163/4.1/2.4
Al Horford .172/4.1/4.1
Pau Gasol .149/4.0/3.5
Rudy Gobert .165/3.7/3.8
DeAndre Jordan .213/3.4/3.5
Mason Plumlee .140/2.8/2.5
Karl-Anthony Towns .151/2.7/3.1
DeMarcus Cousins .122/2.6/2.6
Hassan Whiteside .233/2.5/2.4

also, for comparison

Andre Drummond .133/-.05/1.0
Jahlil Okafor .037/-.41/-.08
Enes Kanter .226/-1.7/0.1
Al Jefferson .123/-1.1/0.2

Yeah, I'm definitely taking Mason Plumlee over Cousins and Drummond.  Similarly, Jokic and Bogut certainly pass the eye / stats test for the league's top two centers.

Think this through: Kanter adds more wins per minute to his team than anybody other than Whiteside. Yet he at replacement level.  So, either the "advanced stats" are hot garbage, or adding a bunch of wins gives you close to no value.

[LooseCannon]

I'm not a big fan of the eye test.

[Roy H.]

I'm not a big fan of the eye test.

I'm not a big fan of contradictory formulas that reach wildly divergent conclusions.

[MBunge]

So, yeah.  Best center in the NBA, and it's not particularly close.  Lots of great players have had 33 win seasons. Notable guys who won 33 games or less?  2007 Paul Pierce (24 wins), 2007 Kevin Garnett (32 wins), 2007 Ray Allen (31 wins).  Clearly those are all guys that teams should have stayed away from if they wanted a title.

Except 33 wins is a career-high for Cousins. He's averaged something of the order of 28 wins over his career so far. He's not the first star player to toil on some horrible teams, but he's definitely the most futile one in such an endeavor that I can think of. So, no.

edit: I lied, Kevin Love was worse. Which is a telling example, given how Love has suddenly looked mortal after he moved to Cleveland.

Cousins is just 25, hasn't even entered his prime yet and Sacramento has been a disaster area beyond anything he's done.  This past season is probably the first one for which you can really hold him responsible.  The West after the top four is weak and someone with Cousins' apparent ability should have been able to drag a moderately talented roster to the playoffs.

Mike

[kozlodoev]

So, yeah.  Best center in the NBA, and it's not particularly close.  Lots of great players have had 33 win seasons. Notable guys who won 33 games or less?  2007 Paul Pierce (24 wins), 2007 Kevin Garnett (32 wins), 2007 Ray Allen (31 wins).  Clearly those are all guys that teams should have stayed away from if they wanted a title.

Except 33 wins is a career-high for Cousins. He's averaged something of the order of 28 wins over his career so far. He's not the first star player to toil on some horrible teams, but he's definitely the most futile one in such an endeavor that I can think of. So, no.

edit: I lied, Kevin Love was worse. Which is a telling example, given how Love has suddenly looked mortal after he moved to Cleveland.

Cousins is just 25, hasn't even entered his prime yet and Sacramento has been a disaster area beyond anything he's done.  This past season is probably the first one for which you can really hold him responsible.  The West after the top four is weak and someone with Cousins' apparent ability should have been able to drag a moderately talented roster to the playoffs.

Cousins has been around for a while now, and has played with some half-decent players. The fact that he never managed to pass 30 wins until this season is a major red flag to me, but to each their own.

[GreenFaith1819]

I'd be ok with Al Horford.

"IF" we get the opportunity to land him, I'm sure he's overall more impressed with our squad, coach and tenacity more than anything else. His maturity will override any "US vs BOS" rivalry nonsense.

He hasn't looked too good this series but I still believe he can play. If we end up with him I'd be happy.

Besides, I remember our own Paul Pierce and KG supposedly talking to him about BOS during an All-Star game a few years back. Maybe they were planting a seed.

Remember how Danny supposedly planned on grabbing KG "YEARS" in advance? Astute and forward-thinking GMs do that.

I would not be surprised if Horford chooses us.

[JohnBoy65]

How many more wins does this team have if you add Horford and replace Sully? I am not too sure... Maybe 5?

[celticsclay]

So, yeah.  Best center in the NBA, and it's not particularly close.  Lots of great players have had 33 win seasons. Notable guys who won 33 games or less?  2007 Paul Pierce (24 wins), 2007 Kevin Garnett (32 wins), 2007 Ray Allen (31 wins).  Clearly those are all guys that teams should have stayed away from if they wanted a title.

Except 33 wins is a career-high for Cousins. He's averaged something of the order of 28 wins over his career so far. He's not the first star player to toil on some horrible teams, but he's definitely the most futile one in such an endeavor that I can think of. So, no.

edit: I lied, Kevin Love was worse. Which is a telling example, given how Love has suddenly looked mortal after he moved to Cleveland.

Cousins is just 25, hasn't even entered his prime yet and Sacramento has been a disaster area beyond anything he's done.  This past season is probably the first one for which you can really hold him responsible.  The West after the top four is weak and someone with Cousins' apparent ability should have been able to drag a moderately talented roster to the playoffs.

Cousins has been around for a while now, and has played with some half-decent players. The fact that he never managed to pass 30 wins until last season is a major red flag to me, but to each their own.

I was trying to think about about this and who would you say were the best players that Cousins has played with?

IT obviously jumps out. However, looking at their 2014-2015 roster
no player from that team went on to even be a rotation player somewhere this year.
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/sacramento-kings/team/roster/15/26/1

If you look at 2013-2014, obviously IT jumps out and Marcus Thornton and Patrick Patterson have been an ok 7th or 8th man,  but it is filled with a ton of guys that immediately were out of the league

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/sacramento-kings/team/roster/14/26/1

The 2012-2013 team was more of the same. Again they had Thomas, but their other best player Tyreke Evans has done absolutely nothing.

Looking back at those teams it becomes kind of shocking just how bad the talent around him has been. You then factor in that their draft picks have been absolutely awful (Stauskas, Mclemore)

[nickagneta]

Cousins is a talent and has great individual stats in his favor. I dont think there is any denying that.

But Cousins is also a head case, a problem to coach, and goes through periods were his effort isnt there and he just stops playing, mostly due to not being able to control his anger and emotion. I am really not sure that can be disputed though the cause of why he acts the way he does possibly could be. The cause doesnt matter. He is a possible team cancer.

Also, I think it cant be disputed that he hasnt done much to raise his team to be that of a winner. 6 years averaging 27 or so wins a year is telling.

Personally, I dont want him. Dont trust him to change his ways and make this team better

[GreenWarrior]

"Has this series hurt the Celtics chances of landing Horford this off season?"

god, I hope so.

[Roy H.]

Cousins is a talent and has great individual stats in his favor. I dont think there is any denying that.

But Cousins is also a head case, a problem to coach, and goes through periods were his effort isnt there and he just stops playing, mostly due to not being able to control his anger and emotion. I am really not sure that can be disputed though the cause of why he acts the way he does possibly could be. The cause doesnt matter. He is a possible team cancer.

Also, I think it cant be disputed that he hasnt done much to raise his team to be that of a winner. 6 years averaging 27 or so wins a year is telling.

Personally, I dont want him. Dont trust him to change his ways and make this team better

He makes his own team much better. They play at a playoff level with him on the court.  Why wouldn't he make the Celtics better?