Has this series hurt the Celtics chances of landing Horford this off season?

[saltlover]

This series should certainly make us question why we would offer Horford the max this summer. Whilst he has outplayed Sullinger I certainly don't think he's been as effective as Amir. Tying him up for 4 years at the max would be a risky decision.

Also signing Horford is not going to sway the boat for Durant. If he comes here it's because of Brad, Isaiash etc. not because we sign Horford.

Hawks fans are pretty mixed about bringing Horford back on a max deal.  THAT should tell us something.

Fans are mixed about everything.  Have you seen the Smart threads today after he saved the series for us yesterday?

Anyway, I can see why Atlanta fans would be mixed.  The team has been flirting with tearing the roster up and starting from scratch. Horford doesn't make sense in such a situation.

I hope they get rid of the max salary in the next CBA, because I'm tired of Internet debates about whether Player X is worthy of the max.  In a world without max contracts, Durant might get $40 million while Horford gets $20 million.  But because there are max contracts, money flows from the best players downward, so Durant's salary is artificially depressed while Horford might have his slightly increased, because teams have to spend the extra dollars somewhere.  People need to get away from the "max salary" hang ups.  Players almost always go where they're offered the most money.  The market sets the price, and Al Horford will be worth the most the market is allowed to pay him, due to teams' budget and roster constraints.

[SparzWizard]

I still think give max money to Horford if it means landing Durant in the offseason.

[Snakehead]

I agree with others saying I just don't see great value in him.  I like him, but with injuries and the cost I don't find it appealing enough.  I would also much, much rather get Cousins, like Roy brings up.  That's a guy that is really worth paying.

[kozlodoev]

DeAndre is definitely not as good, and Drummond isn't in the same stratosphere as the other two. You can't name a better Center because there isn't one.

You're funny.

[Big333223]

Regardless of whether or not you like Horford, can we please dispel with the idea that he's too old? He's 29. A 4 year max contract would run from age 30 to 33. 33 is not as old as it used to be, especially for a guy like Horford whose game is predicated on skill and intelligence, not athleticism.

If the Celtics have a chance to sign him and the only issue is age, then there's no issue at all.

[crimson_stallion]

Paying a 30 year old non-superstar $25 million per year is a lot less appealing than paying the best center in the league (age 25) a total of $32 million over the next two seasons.

That'd be the "best center" who teamed up with the "best point guard" to lead their franchise to eye-popping 33 wins last season?

If you are under the impression that Rondo is the "best point guard," then you are mistaken, sir. I'd also like to see you make a legitimate, stat-based argument for anyone beside Boogie Cousins as the best Center.

What, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond not good enough for you?

Cousins must have posted the least impactful 25 points and 12 rebounds in recent NBA history. The guy is a loser, stat padder, and a coach killer. Just stay away.

Like it or loathe it, Demarcus Cousins is the best center in the NBA - and none of the others come even remotely close.

Regardless of whether or not you like Horford, can we please dispel with the idea that he's too old? He's 29. A 4 year max contract would run from age 30 to 33. 33 is not as old as it used to be, especially for a guy like Horford whose game is predicated on skill and intelligence, not athleticism.

If the Celtics have a chance to sign him and the only issue is age, then there's no issue at all.

The problem with your theory here is that unlike many guys at the age of 29, Horford is ALREADY showing significant signs of decline.

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career


Subjectively:
* He has lost a lot of the excellent mobility he once had, and he now looks pretty slow out there

* His stamina looks worse - you can see him fighting for breath every time he comes out of the
game

* Unlike his younger days, he is now almost completely incapable of creating offence, or scoring 1-on-1 against a quality defender.  Almost all of his offence comes from barely contested layups inside, barely contested jumpers and the occasional postup if he has a major mismatch.  If you put a body on him, he's basically invisible

* His defence looks highly inconsistent these days.  Sometimes he looks solid, other timers he looks slow and lazy.

Al Horford, at the age of 29, has already begun his decline...and that is NOT a good sign.  If he is already slowing down, what is he going to look like two or three years from now?

[saltlover]

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career

He's a different offensive player now than he has been.  His average shot was 12.3 feet away from the basket, because 24% of them were from 3-point range.  Including this season, his career average has been 9.7 feet away from the basket.  That is a HUGE difference.

Accordingly, his FG% dropped.  However, his eFG%, which accounts for 3-point shooting, went up this year from last year, and was above his career average.

Because he is taking more shots further away from the basket, he gets fouled less, and so his free-throw rate drops.  That's a function of his changing skillset, but not necessarily showing a decline.  Being able to add an extremely valuable skill like 3-point shooting outweighs not drawing an extra foul at the rim, because it creates more spacing and thus better shots for his teammates.

His per-36 scoring was the highest third-highest of his career.  His highest, in 2013-2014, was not in a full season, and therefore may be artificially inflated due to a smaller sample size.  He also averaged his second-highest assists per 36, meaning some shots became passes for his teammates made baskets.  Offensively, he's been about as valuable as ever.

While he may be getting older, he's already developing skills that will serve him well in aging, by being able to play further away from the basket, thus preserving some energy and health that can be expended by playing on the block all the time.  Still, he shot 74.5% at the rim, and took 30% of his shots there, so he's perfectly capable of going down low.

Yes, his rebounding has decreased, and there may be a little worry there, but offensively, he's not lost any significant amount of effectiveness.

[footey]

I'd be happy to sign him for 2-3 years at 10 mm per. But anything more or longer, pass. He obviously will find a better deal than that, starting with ATL.

[crimson_stallion]

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career

He's a different offensive player now than he has been.  His average shot was 12.3 feet away from the basket, because 24% of them were from 3-point range.  Including this season, his career average has been 9.7 feet away from the basket.  That is a HUGE difference.

Accordingly, his FG% dropped.  However, his eFG%, which accounts for 3-point shooting, went up this year from last year, and was above his career average.

Because he is taking more shots further away from the basket, he gets fouled less, and so his free-throw rate drops.  That's a function of his changing skillset, but not necessarily showing a decline.  Being able to add an extremely valuable skill like 3-point shooting outweighs not drawing an extra foul at the rim, because it creates more spacing and thus better shots for his teammates.

His per-36 scoring was the highest third-highest of his career.  His highest, in 2013-2014, was not in a full season, and therefore may be artificially inflated due to a smaller sample size.  He also averaged his second-highest assists per 36, meaning some shots became passes for his teammates made baskets.  Offensively, he's been about as valuable as ever.

While he may be getting older, he's already developing skills that will serve him well in aging, by being able to play further away from the basket, thus preserving some energy and health that can be expended by playing on the block all the time.  Still, he shot 74.5% at the rim, and took 30% of his shots there, so he's perfectly capable of going down low.

Yes, his rebounding has decreased, and there may be a little worry there, but offensively, he's not lost any significant amount of effectiveness.

His free throw rate was almost as bad last year, and he took nowhere near as many threes...it's not down bevause of him taking more threes, its down because he's playing with less aggression on offense.  He plays like an overglorified role player.

Let me put into perspective for you.  Kelly Olynyk's FTR has never dropped below 23% for a season.  Horford's FTR hasnt reached 23% since 5 seasons ago.  Olynyk is considered by many Celtics bloggers to be soft as a biscuit in a tea cup.  What does that say about Horford?

His FTR and REB% being so weak lately is a clear sign that he's gotten soft and is playing the game with far less aggression.  You can clearly see that when you watch him play in this series too.   Not once in this entire series has he looked like a $25m player - not once.

Hell, Horford so far is averaging 13.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 3 blocks in 35.5 minutes on 45.5% shooting.

Amir is averaging 10.5 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 blocks in only 25.5 minutes while shooting 67.9% from the field.

Work those out on a per 36 basis and you'll see that Horford is barely outplaying Amir Johmson, who is an all-out role player.

Horford has also really struggled to show any time he's had Johnson or Jerebko on him.  He's only been able to score 1on1 when he's come up against Sully, who has played with 0 effort the entire playoffs.

[crimson_stallion]

I'd be happy to sign him for 2-3 years at 10 mm per. But anything more or longer, pass. He obviously will find a better deal than that, starting with ATL.

I would give him $15m, he is worth that under this rising cap.  Bit no way id dream of giving him $25m or even $20m.

[Granath]

Like it or loathe it, Demarcus Cousins is the best center in the NBA - and none of the others come even remotely close.

Cutting through the hyperbole, I agree Cousins is the best center in the NBA. The guy is a PITA but he has worked hard to improve his game and it shows when he's motivated. He's improved almost every aspect of his game - getting to the line, his shooting, rebounding, etc.

With that said, Drummond is a pretty passable 2nd and DeJordan is also in the mix. They don't have Cousins' offensive game but both are better on the defensive end of the court and on the boards.

The problem with your theory here is that unlike many guys at the age of 29, Horford is ALREADY showing significant signs of decline.

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career


Subjectively:
* He has lost a lot of the excellent mobility he once had, and he now looks pretty slow out there

* His stamina looks worse - you can see him fighting for breath every time he comes out of the
game

* Unlike his younger days, he is now almost completely incapable of creating offence, or scoring 1-on-1 against a quality defender.  Almost all of his offence comes from barely contested layups inside, barely contested jumpers and the occasional postup if he has a major mismatch.  If you put a body on him, he's basically invisible

* His defence looks highly inconsistent these days.  Sometimes he looks solid, other timers he looks slow and lazy.

Al Horford, at the age of 29, has already begun his decline...and that is NOT a good sign.  If he is already slowing down, what is he going to look like two or three years from now?

I agree with you here as well. Horford is going to command a huge salary but his game is already in decline to some small degree. Paying a big man like him huge dollars after age 30 isn't usually the smart move. He certainly doesn't rebound as well as he did. His scoring is down a bit. He seems content to play away from the basket and not bang like he used to. At the same time, if Danny went and got him I wouldn't cry too much about it so long as the Cs weren't expecting him to be the top guy (or even #2) on the team. But he'd be a great 3rd option even as he ages.

Here's the rub - the only way you can afford to pay him as that #3 option is if the Cs use their top draft pick instead of trading it away for an established superstar. If they do that, does acquiring Horford make good sense? Probably so - the Cs are going to need to pay SOMEONE since I don't expect Amir or Sully to be back. And if they don't trade away that #1 they'll have the cap space to burn anyway. But it doesn't thrill me.

[Roy H.]

Paying a 30 year old non-superstar $25 million per year is a lot less appealing than paying the best center in the league (age 25) a total of $32 million over the next two seasons.

That'd be the "best center" who teamed up with the "best point guard" to lead their franchise to eye-popping 33 wins last season?

He's the "best center" who ranked 4th in the NBA in scoring and 5th in rebounding, who can score both in the post and from outside (3rd among centers in 3PTM), who is a good passer (2nd among centers), who blocks shots and gets steals (1st among centers), and who led the league in charges drawn in 2014 and 2015, and slipped all the way to second this season.

You're worried about "impact"?  Cousins ranks tops among starting centers in RPM, which purportedly measures impact.  He's top 10 among centers in both offensive and defensive RPM.  And, despite that 33 win team, he had a positive +/-, meaning the dumpster fire Kings outscored opponents when Cousins was in the game.  Cousins ranked in the top 28% of +/-, despite such a terrible team.  Rondo?  He ranked well in the negative, and 419th in the NBA.  Gay?  369th.  Belinelli?  430th.  Cousins' substitute, Kosta Koufus?  444th!

So, yeah.  Best center in the NBA, and it's not particularly close.  Lots of great players have had 33 win seasons.  Notable guys who won 33 games or less?  2007 Paul Pierce (24 wins), 2007 Kevin Garnett (32 wins), 2007 Ray Allen (31 wins).  Clearly those are all guys that teams should have stayed away from if they wanted a title.

[Roy H.]

I'd be happy to sign him for 2-3 years at 10 mm per. But anything more or longer, pass. He obviously will find a better deal than that, starting with ATL.

So, Amir Johnson money?  You are definitely right, Horford will do way better.

I understand not wanting to go to the max, but I do think you're undervaluing him a lot here.

[Big333223]

The problem with your theory here is that unlike many guys at the age of 29, Horford is ALREADY showing significant signs of decline.

Objectively:
* His Per 36 scoring numbers are the lowest since 2012/13

* His per 36 rebounding numbers and REB% are the lowest of his career

* His FG% is the lowest since his rookie year

* His Free Throw Rate is the lowest of his career


Subjectively:
* He has lost a lot of the excellent mobility he once had, and he now looks pretty slow out there

* His stamina looks worse - you can see him fighting for breath every time he comes out of the
game

* Unlike his younger days, he is now almost completely incapable of creating offence, or scoring 1-on-1 against a quality defender.  Almost all of his offence comes from barely contested layups inside, barely contested jumpers and the occasional postup if he has a major mismatch.  If you put a body on him, he's basically invisible

* His defence looks highly inconsistent these days.  Sometimes he looks solid, other timers he looks slow and lazy.

Al Horford, at the age of 29, has already begun his decline...and that is NOT a good sign.  If he is already slowing down, what is he going to look like two or three years from now?

I have to say I completely disagree with you on his defense, which I think has been awesome. He's a big reason the Hawks had a top 6 defense last year and a top 2 defense this year.

His FG% is down slightly but his eFG% is right around where it always is and is slightly higher than his career average. This is because of the increase in 3's. And other than that uptick in 3's his stats are basically identical to what they were last season (albeit in 2 more minutes per game). Both those years he was an all star, largely because of how much he does that doesn't show up in the box score.

To me, it doesn't look like he's in decline, it looks like he's settled into a role.

[SHAQATTACK]

I think Atlanta has decided to keep the group,....they can ' improve by trading .......so looks like instead of blowing it up .....they will pay out the Wazoo to keep who they got ..

Horford could retire a Hawk.