Too many picks....

[ThePoeticWolf]

Ok.. next year youngsters... rozier hunter young smart mickey 3 firsts 5 seconds.....13
And thomas bradley crowder jj olynyc sully zeller amir turner another 9
And a couple of free agents?? 2
24 players
You need to cut 9..... 9!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok you draft and stash a couple of seconds...7 to cut
You lose turner in free agency(do not think danny overpays him) 6 to cut
You trade away a couple of players jj and sully and a couple of seconds for one guy? 3 to cut
You trade away young hunter and a late first for a better first next year..
Ok reached 15
Smart rozier thomas bradley crowder olynyc sully mickey amir 2 firsts 1 second 2 free agents and 1 from trade....
I am already tired
Good luck danny
Everybody knows you want to unload picks and they will try to buy low....
.... you will have to unload picks first to sign  free agents
 If you manage to sell at the right price this year i will sign with both my hands that you are the best gm in the league..

This is a lot easier then you're making it.  Simple break down. 

Under contract next year guaranteed
Bradley
Crowder
Smart
Thomas
Olynyk
Rozier
Young
Hunter
Mickey

Qualifying Offer
Sullinger
Zeller

Unrestricted Free Agent
Turner

Non-Guaranteed
Jerebko
Johnson

Celtics probably going to trade Young and my guess is Rozier and a couple picks for either a player or to move up.  If this being the case only players on roster for sure next year is.

Bradley
Crowder
Smart
Thomas
Olynyk
Hunter
Mickey

We have plenty of room to gain draft player and free agents.
 

[ThePoeticWolf]

This is a subject I've wondered about for some time. How many players could the Celtics draft and "stash", ie won't be on the 2016-17 team? I assume all five 2nd-round picks, but I'm not sure.

Every single pick could be a draft and stash.  Further, you can straight up sell draft picks for cash considerations.  That's how we got Rondo. 

There is NEVER such a thing as "too many draft picks."

The team could absolutely roll with 3 more rookies (first rounders) next year, given that Sullinger, Turner, and Zeller are all free agents and Amir Johnson and Jerebko's contracts will be non-guaranteed. The question is, as you've mentioned already, Do you really want to replace three or more veterans with three rookies?

If you add three rookies, you'll have 6 players with 0-1 year of experience on the team, plus James Young. That's 7 guys with little or no time on the court or proof of being able to stick in the league.

This is clearly not ideal. But I think it's important for Ainge not to be so afraid of this scenario that it paints him into a corner in the offseason. If there are no good opportunities to trade youth for established talent, or to consolidate draft picks, then you roll the dice three more times and see what sticks. You just have to plan on some of those younger guys actually getting minutes next year, because you can't have all of them riding the bench the whole year.

Amir and Jerebko were signed on essentially 1-year deals to give us maximum roster flexibility going into the summer.  If Turner and Sullinger get Godfathered by other teams, it's likely that we could lose 5 players from this year's squad. 

Ainge doesn't have to be afraid of anything.  He has the best offseason situation of any GM in the league.

Amir and jerebko might need to be retained if both sully and turner leave with better offers

I don't see how you let all 4 go - from your 9man rotation

UNLESS you bring in two bigs studs via trade or free agency

You need somebody to play - that can bring you to next level

And that's not going to be somebody from this year draft class

this is not a good idea
considering it will hurt our chances at free agency as free agents like durant and horford would like to play with an established supporting class and not rookies

also it seems kind of ridiculous to throw away a team that has almost reached #3 seed in the east. I think if ainge needed to make room for rookies, he'd probably remove 2-3 players.

I can see these players going
zeller = not enough playing time behind sully and olynyk, despite being a solid backup C.

young = hasn't distinguished himself from other players in terms of skills e.g. hunter = shooting, mickey = shot blocking. And he has shown minimal improvements.

amir = if ainge can see mickey replacing amir's role as a defensive minded PF. I dont really see that happening soon but if mickey were to show a lot of development, ainge might think about opening playing time for mickey to develop.

Ainge will probably draft and stash the rest of the picks or trade them to other teams

BornReady I don't normally call out something in a post but this needed to be.

"mickey = shot blocking. And he has shown minimal improvements."

He's played a total of 54 minutes with the Celtics.  Just in those burst of minutes he has 11 blocks, 13 rebounds and 21 points.

This is d-league stats but where he'll improve his game since we have no real roster spot for him but you tell me you don't like these stats for a rookie. 

23 Games
22 Games Starts
33.3 Minutes Played Per Game
FG% .531
PPG 17.4 - 401 Total
TRB 10.3 - 236 Total
BLK 4.4 - 101 Total
Throws FT .745%

[walker834]

I think Ainge would much rather make a draft day trade then sell off picks.   I think he values our players as well and isn't going to sell off guys just for the sake of it. He'll probably look to pair some of these picks and a few of our young guys to move up or for a player.  There's something we are all missing here though. Ainge has a plan somewhere in there.  He's going to find the best option but there have to be players he is targetting pretty hard.

I agree we have too many picks though.  I also think the way this team is playing players don't seem to be playing like they aren't going to be here.  Most guys are playing like they are a part of something.

[guava_wrench]

I think Ainge would much rather make a draft day trade then sell off picks.   I think he values our players as well and isn't going to sell off guys just for the sake of it. He'll probably look to pair some of these picks and a few of our young guys to move up or for a player.  There's something we are all missing here though. Ainge has a plan somewhere in there.  He's going to find the best option but there have to be players he is targetting pretty hard.

I agree we have too many picks though.  I also think the way this team is playing players don't seem to be playing like they aren't going to be here.  Most guys are playing like they are a part of something.

Ainge will try to get value. It isn't about 'selling off' picks. But you don't get value from your picks if you have to cut them to get to 15 roster spots. You don't get value from picks if they never get to play on your team.

If other teams know that Ainge needs to move picks, they have an advantage in negotiations. The only leverage Ainge has is (1) competition from other teams who could make better offers and (2) the desire of teams to pick up particular players they like in the draft. Otherwise, teams know that the roster crunch means that Ainge has no choice but to move picks.

Draft day deals are great, but if on draft day no one is biting, what do you do? Look at the failed Winslow trade.

[Evantime34]

I think Ainge would much rather make a draft day trade then sell off picks.   I think he values our players as well and isn't going to sell off guys just for the sake of it. He'll probably look to pair some of these picks and a few of our young guys to move up or for a player.  There's something we are all missing here though. Ainge has a plan somewhere in there.  He's going to find the best option but there have to be players he is targetting pretty hard.

I agree we have too many picks though.  I also think the way this team is playing players don't seem to be playing like they aren't going to be here.  Most guys are playing like they are a part of something.

Ainge will try to get value. It isn't about 'selling off' picks. But you don't get value from your picks if you have to cut them to get to 15 roster spots. You don't get value from picks if they never get to play on your team.

If other teams know that Ainge needs to move picks, they have an advantage in negotiations. The only leverage Ainge has is (1) competition from other teams who could make better offers and (2) the desire of teams to pick up particular players they like in the draft. Otherwise, teams know that the roster crunch means that Ainge has no choice but to move picks.

Draft day deals are great, but if on draft day no one is biting, what do you do? Look at the failed Winslow trade.

If Ainge doesn't make trades on draft day he would lose some leverage in deal later in the offseason, but I expect teams that might not have been suitors for a trade on draft night to become potential trade partners after free agency is over.

With a lot of teams having cap space and not a ton of quality free agents, a team that didn't have interest in acquiring a young player might reconsider their stance once they know they aren't getting a free agent.

[drogbagarnett]

And here my team if we get unlucky at the draft and get pick #5 or worst :

Trade it along Smart, young and Amir plus some 2nd rounders for Butler

Thomas Rozier Levert
Butler Bradley Hunter
Crowder Turner Chriss
Olynyk Jerebko Mickey
Horford Sully Hammons

What do you guys think...?

I'd do the Butler deal all day, but I don't see the Bulls doing it (and I love Smart). Butler is a veritable superstar. Smart has "very good player" potential, but he needs to improve his shot and tone down his temper. #5 will likely be a good player, but probably not a superstar. Everything else is a throw-in. So you're essentially trading a star for two players with the potential to become good. Most teams would rather have one "A" than two "B+"

Mike

Unless they are rebuilding and need young players and draft assets.... We could add a couple of future 1sts if needed... Who else can offer them that...?

[Moranis]

And here my team if we get unlucky at the draft and get pick #5 or worst :

Trade it along Smart, young and Amir plus some 2nd rounders for Butler

Thomas Rozier Levert
Butler Bradley Hunter
Crowder Turner Chriss
Olynyk Jerebko Mickey
Horford Sully Hammons

What do you guys think...?

I'd do the Butler deal all day, but I don't see the Bulls doing it (and I love Smart). Butler is a veritable superstar. Smart has "very good player" potential, but he needs to improve his shot and tone down his temper. #5 will likely be a good player, but probably not a superstar. Everything else is a throw-in. So you're essentially trading a star for two players with the potential to become good. Most teams would rather have one "A" than two "B+"

Mike

Unless they are rebuilding and need young players and draft assets.... We could add a couple of future 1sts if needed... Who else can offer them that...?

Lots of teams could offer them a better package. 

[Hemingway]

Ok.. next year youngsters... rozier hunter young smart mickey 3 firsts 5 seconds.....13
And thomas bradley crowder jj olynyc sully zeller amir turner another 9
And a couple of free agents?? 2
24 players
You need to cut 9..... 9!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ok you draft and stash a couple of seconds...7 to cut
You lose turner in free agency(do not think danny overpays him) 6 to cut
You trade away a couple of players jj and sully and a couple of seconds for one guy? 3 to cut
You trade away young hunter and a late first for a better first next year..
Ok reached 15
Smart rozier thomas bradley crowder olynyc sully mickey amir 2 firsts 1 second 2 free agents and 1 from trade....
I am already tired
Good luck danny
Everybody knows you want to unload picks and they will try to buy low....
.... you will have to unload picks first to sign  free agents
 If you manage to sell at the right price this year i will sign with both my hands that you are the best gm in the league..

You are correct, but the silver lining is that so many guys are going to get overpayed in the next 2 summers that GMs are going to value rookie contract more. Danny will look to draft guys who seem NBA ready over potential becasue they have the best upside in future trades in the next 2 years.

[PhoSita]

Even with all of the picks, it's possible to envision a scenario without a major trade on draft day that still gives the Celts a pretty decent roster.


#5 - Murray
#16 - Sabonis
#23 - Zizic (stash)
#31 - Hernangomez (stash)
#35 - Diallo

Then in the free agency period:

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.
Sign Jared Dudley
Sign D.J. Augustin
Re-sign Sullinger

Starters: IT, Smart, Crowder, Sullinger, Monroe

Bench: Rozier, Murray, Dudley, Sabonis, Olynyk

Reserve: Augustin, Hunter, Jerebko, Mickey, Diallo

[Evantime34]

Even with all of the picks, it's possible to envision a scenario without a major trade on draft day that still gives the Celts a pretty decent roster.


#5 - Murray
#16 - Sabonis
#23 - Zizic (stash)
#31 - Hernangomez (stash)
#35 - Diallo

Then in the free agency period:

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.
Sign Jared Dudley
Sign D.J. Augustin
Re-sign Sullinger

Starters: IT, Smart, Crowder, Sullinger, Monroe

Bench: Rozier, Murray, Dudley, Sabonis, Olynyk

Reserve: Augustin, Hunter, Jerebko, Mickey, Diallo

I'm on board with the picks. Not really a fan of adding Monroe to play next to Sullinger. I probably would rather just keep Turner than sign Dudley (which hurts since I love Dudley).

The general idea of drafting 2 or 3 rookies, using the rest of the picks to stash, trading some depth for a better player and filling the rest of the roster out via free agency sounds great to me though.

Replace Monroe with Love (we would probably have to add some picks, but Bradley makes sense for Cleveland because he guards Curry well and GSW is the team standing in Cleveland's way), and Dudley with Turner and I'd be very happy.

[PhoSita]

Even with all of the picks, it's possible to envision a scenario without a major trade on draft day that still gives the Celts a pretty decent roster.


#5 - Murray
#16 - Sabonis
#23 - Zizic (stash)
#31 - Hernangomez (stash)
#35 - Diallo

Then in the free agency period:

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.
Sign Jared Dudley
Sign D.J. Augustin
Re-sign Sullinger

Starters: IT, Smart, Crowder, Sullinger, Monroe

Bench: Rozier, Murray, Dudley, Sabonis, Olynyk

Reserve: Augustin, Hunter, Jerebko, Mickey, Diallo

I'm on board with the picks. Not really a fan of adding Monroe to play next to Sullinger. I probably would rather just keep Turner than sign Dudley (which hurts since I love Dudley).

The general idea of drafting 2 or 3 rookies, using the rest of the picks to stash, trading some depth for a better player and filling the rest of the roster out via free agency sounds great to me though.

Replace Monroe with Love (we would probably have to add some picks, but Bradley makes sense for Cleveland because he guards Curry well and GSW is the team standing in Cleveland's way), and Dudley with Turner and I'd be very happy.

Yeah, Monroe is just one idea.  I think he's much more likely to be available via trade than Love, Demarcus, or Butler, and trading for him will be easier (and perhaps smarter long-term) than trying to sign Horford to a long term max.


Sullinger and Monroe is not a perfect match, but I think they could actually work OK together with the right pieces next to them.  The question as always is how consistent Jared's jumper can be and can he stay fit and on the floor.  It's possible you could move Olynyk, Mickey, or Sabonis into the starting lineup instead, if one of them proves to be a better  or more reliable fit.


As for Turner versus Dudley, I think if the team drafts Hield or Murray, it won't make sense to keep Turner.  Give the second unit reigns to Murray and Rozier and fill Turner's minutes with a player who can shoot off the ball.  Dudley fits the bill.

[Evantime34]

Even with all of the picks, it's possible to envision a scenario without a major trade on draft day that still gives the Celts a pretty decent roster.


#5 - Murray
#16 - Sabonis
#23 - Zizic (stash)
#31 - Hernangomez (stash)
#35 - Diallo

Then in the free agency period:

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.
Sign Jared Dudley
Sign D.J. Augustin
Re-sign Sullinger

Starters: IT, Smart, Crowder, Sullinger, Monroe

Bench: Rozier, Murray, Dudley, Sabonis, Olynyk

Reserve: Augustin, Hunter, Jerebko, Mickey, Diallo

I'm on board with the picks. Not really a fan of adding Monroe to play next to Sullinger. I probably would rather just keep Turner than sign Dudley (which hurts since I love Dudley).

The general idea of drafting 2 or 3 rookies, using the rest of the picks to stash, trading some depth for a better player and filling the rest of the roster out via free agency sounds great to me though.

Replace Monroe with Love (we would probably have to add some picks, but Bradley makes sense for Cleveland because he guards Curry well and GSW is the team standing in Cleveland's way), and Dudley with Turner and I'd be very happy.

Yeah, Monroe is just one idea.  I think he's much more likely to be available via trade than Love, Demarcus, or Butler, and trading for him will be easier (and perhaps smarter long-term) than trying to sign Horford to a long term max.


Sullinger and Monroe is not a perfect match, but I think they could actually work OK together with the right pieces next to them.  The question as always is how consistent Jared's jumper can be and can he stay fit and on the floor.  It's possible you could move Olynyk, Mickey, or Sabonis into the starting lineup instead, if one of them proves to be a better  or more reliable fit.


As for Turner versus Dudley, I think if the team drafts Hield or Murray, it won't make sense to keep Turner.  Give the second unit reigns to Murray and Rozier and fill Turner's minutes with a player who can shoot off the ball.  Dudley fits the bill.

It doesn't take much to talk me into Dudley, since he was on the last good BC team while I was there. Right now though, I'm not sure about his ability to guard 3's and I see him as more of a stretch 4.

I could see Monroe fitting with Olynyk, I also think he'd be a good option to replace Sully via trade if Jared gets a big offer somewhere else that we don't want to match.

[LooseCannon]

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.

I'm not throwing Bradley away like that when there is a reasonable case that Johnson is more valuable than Monroe.

[PhoSita]

Trade Avery Bradley, Amir Johnson, and James Young for Greg Monroe.

I'm not throwing Bradley away like that when there is a reasonable case that Johnson is more valuable than Monroe.

An argument that would be very context dependent, I suspect.


Trading for Monroe would be a bit of a gamble, but I think he provides exactly what the Celts need -- an interior rebounding and scoring presence.

Amir is nice, and ideally you'd upgrade his spot with a player who provides the same basic skillset and physical profile, only more.  But I'm not sure a player like that is going to be available.

Bradley, meanwhile, is expendable because the team can only have so many guards.


Taking a step forward from where the team is now is going to require moving on from some guys we like, and it's also probably going to require taking some risks, because the most obvious choices are not necessarily going to become available. 

That might mean that the best way to make a substantial talent and scoring upgrade will mean trading for a guy like Monroe or Okafor and figuring out how to make it work.

[PhoSita]

It doesn't take much to talk me into Dudley, since he was on the last good BC team while I was there. Right now though, I'm not sure about his ability to guard 3's and I see him as more of a stretch 4.

I'm with you there.  Unfortunately there just aren't that many quality 3-and-D guys in the league right now, let alone on the free agent market this summer.