Wow. It all makes sense now.

[Dino Pitino]

I don't see the point in spending much time entertaining this fantasy, but I just want to point out that RPM in general, but DRPM especially, is not a static, end-all be-all stat that tells the defensive value of a player independent of context.  The defensive stats are just too noisy to rely on them that much.

I'd have some concerns matching Horford and Okafor in the frontcourt, and Durant is, perhaps, not as impactful defensively as Crowder.  The IT and Bradley pairing will always present some issues due to size.

Still, I think the fact that Crowder, Sullinger, and Amir are rated so highly in DRPM this year suggests the role that they play on this particular Celtics team.  Crowder is a pretty good individual defender.  Sullinger and Amir are just decent on an individual basis, at best.

I trust Stevens to make the most defensively of whatever piece's he's given, so long as there aren't absolutely glaring weaknesses.

Not sure why you're emphasizing individual defense. How good Crowder, Amir, and Sully are on an individual basis is not as important as how good they are as team defenders. The most accurate defensive metric we have says they are very good team defenders. There is such a thing as talent for team defense, team defensive skills and instincts. A good individual defender can still be a negative overall on D if his BBIQ and team defense is lacking, hence Bradley's way below average DRPM this year. DRPM may not be perfect, may be noisy, etc. But there's no way that team system and coaching can account for and smooth out the gaps in frontcourt DRPM we'd see. From 12th & 37th to 77th & 371st. That is a huge, huge drop. We might have to grapple with the fact that Sully and Amir are much better on defense and much more responsible for our defensive excellence than we've been willing to admit. Especially important to think about when considering how indifferent most fans are to them not being part of the team next year. Be careful what we wish for. Might have fireworks in this summer but wind up wondering next January why our defense has turned soft.

[TheTruth]

This team badly needs Sully's rebounding and interior presense because most of our bigs are soft, but let's not get things twisted. Sully is not a good help defender. He is not a guy you want to get stuck on a switch up top or someone you need to slide over to help block off an angle to the hoop.

[86MaxwellSmart]

I would prefer Noel if we trade for a philly big man, I can't stand Centers who can't play defense..
In my opinion our team culture is based on defense and hustle, Noel would fit right in.
I think if the bpa is Dunn or Murray we should make an offer to the sixers, If the pick is top three than make an offer to the kings for Boogie 

Nerlens Noel--?
Every time I see him play---he looks like a guy who has never played the game before--he is awful.

[Dino Pitino]

So, Sully is not a good individual defender, and he's not a good team defender, but somehow he is by far the team leader in DRPM and 12th in the whole league. Okay. That stat is meaningless, then. So is Defensive Rating, totally useless. Or, you know, maybe, just maybe, he's better than we realize and we're just predisposed to overlook/underrate him in general.

[csfansince60s]

Could we maybe put a moratorium on the Okafor threads?

I'm with you...and while we're at it, can there be a complete ban on Giannis threads.

Boy, talk about Giannis envy!

[TheTruth]

Dino,

No one should ever use a stat that has Sully ranked 12th in the entire league for anything regarding defense. 

Flush that stat down the toilet.

[Dino Pitino]

Dino,

No one should ever use a stat that has Sully ranked 12th in the entire league for anything regarding defense. 

Flush that stat down the toilet.

So, let's see, flush every aggregate measure for defense that exists down the toilet because they all say Sullinger's impact on defense is very good and that can't be true because we already know Sullinger isn't good, or ignore you. Hmmm. I'm going with the latter.

[mctyson]

Okafor
 Horford
 Crowder
 Durant
 Bradley
 Thomas

Fixed.  That team is a title contender.

[loco_91]

I'm hoping for:

IT
Butler
KD
Crowder
Noel

Bench: Smart, KO, youth.

-If you're getting KD, I don't think you want to also get Okafor. Okafor is only good if you're going to give him a huge usage rate on offense to make up for his D, and you can't do that with IT and KD both in your starting lineup. I'd rather draft Poeltl.
-Butler might be a pipe dream, but I think we have the assets to get it done. A package of AB, Bkn '16 and Bkn '18 would at least be tempting. We'd still have Bkn '17 and Mavs '16 to package for Noel.
-By trading for Noel instead of signing Horford, we conserve cap room, and a rough calculation suggests that this will enable us to sign another significant FA* in 2017, in addition to re-signing Noel and Olynyk. This could make for a truly terrifying lineup in '17-'18, for example:

Smart/IT
Butler/Hayward
KD/Hayward/Crowder
Crowder/Olynyk/Mickey
Noel/Olynyk/Mickey

A man can dream!


*It looks like we could maybe even sign a max FA, at the expense of Olynyk, but it's really really tight and you would have to give away guys on rookie-scale contracts to make it work.

[TheTruth]

Loco,

Looks like a nice lineup but no way no shot Smart starts over IT.

[byennie]

I would prefer Noel if we trade for a philly big man, I can't stand Centers who can't play defense..
In my opinion our team culture is based on defense and hustle, Noel would fit right in.
I think if the bpa is Dunn or Murray we should make an offer to the sixers, If the pick is top three than make an offer to the kings for Boogie 

Nerlens Noel--?
Every time I see him play---he looks like a guy who has never played the game before--he is awful.

He averages roughly 14pt/8rb/2ast/2stl/2blk as a starting center on 56% shooting in 29 minutes, with excellent +/- and defensive metrics. I don't care what it looks like, that's a good player, not an "awful" one.

[greece66]

I would prefer Noel if we trade for a philly big man, I can't stand Centers who can't play defense..
In my opinion our team culture is based on defense and hustle, Noel would fit right in.
I think if the bpa is Dunn or Murray we should make an offer to the sixers, If the pick is top three than make an offer to the kings for Boogie 

Nerlens Noel--?
Every time I see him play---he looks like a guy who has never played the game before--he is awful.

He averages roughly 14pt/8rb/2ast/2stl/2blk as a starting center on 56% shooting in 29 minutes, with excellent +/- and defensive metrics. I don't care what it looks like, that's a good player, not an "awful" one.

*11pts and 1.5 block

He is p good: last season he was in the top 10 in steals, blocks, defensive +/- and defensive rating.

But it doesn't look like Philly wants to trade him. On the contrary, they seem to look at him as a foundational stone. Also consider that they traded Jrue Holiday to get him (most NBA analysts were shocked at the time).

[gamehead36]

Wait. Is nobody gonna factor in that Okafor is on his rookie scale deal for 3 more years, and how that would enable us to add two more max contract players on top of adding him? Opposed to Noel having one more year on his rookie deal.

I think that is a huge factor.

[Dino Pitino]

Wait. Is nobody gonna factor in that Okafor is on his rookie scale deal for 3 more years, and how that would enable us to add two more max contract players on top of adding him? Opposed to Noel having one more year on his rookie deal.

I think that is a huge factor.

The significance of that depends on whether or how Noel situation and cap hold as a RFA would limit us to less than two max contracts. Would we be able to schedule things so that we can sign an unrestricted free agent first? What would the cap hold be? Which other guaranteed contracts would we still have next summer? If we'd still have the ability to sign two max free agents, either one this summer and one next, or both next summer, then the difference between Okafor and Noel's contracts mean nothing to me. Would rather have Noel over Okafor at any price, as long as we could still take on two more max contracts.

EDIT: Or, if he and the Celtics were interested in an extension this fall, what might the first year of that look like in '17?

[Dino Pitino]

I would prefer Noel if we trade for a philly big man, I can't stand Centers who can't play defense..
In my opinion our team culture is based on defense and hustle, Noel would fit right in.
I think if the bpa is Dunn or Murray we should make an offer to the sixers, If the pick is top three than make an offer to the kings for Boogie 

Nerlens Noel--?
Every time I see him play---he looks like a guy who has never played the game before--he is awful.

We loved Perk. Perk frequently looked awful. Perk started for us at center and we won a title with him, nearly two. Noel is a good-passing, good-dribbling, better-defending, taller, thinner, quicker, faster, younger, smarter version of Perk.