Zach Lowe: C's low-balled cavs for Love at the deadline

[kozlodoev]

I've heard Lowe on podcasts with Bill Simmons expressing skepticism when Bill suggests Marcus Smart could some day be as good as Tony Allen.   

20-year-old rookie Marcus Smart was already better than 23-year-old rookie Tony Allen.  The difference is the level of expectation for a #6 pick on a team fighting to make the playoffs vs. a #25 pick playing a small role on a title contender.

Yeah, try that again. Tony Allen started 34 games on 45-win team in his rookie season. He was better defensively than Smart at that point, and wasn't a (complete) embarrassment when trying to score the ball. There's no comparison.

Ah, rose-colored glasses.

Tony Allen rookie stats.
16.4 minutes a game.  6.4 pts.  2.9 rebs.  1 steal.  .8 assists.  1 turnover.  4.6 two point shots a game at 48%.  .4 three point shots a game at 38%.

Marcus Smart rookie stats.
27 minutes a game.  7.9 pts.  3.3 rebs.  1.5 steals.  3.1 assists.  1.3 turnovers.  3.1 two point shots a game at 41%.  4.1 three points shots a game at 33%.

You're remembering TA as better than Marcus primarily because TA wasn't asked to do much besides defend and make layups.  TA barely ever handled the ball, was a turnover machine when he did and was basically NEVER asked to space the floor with his jumpshot.  At three years younger, Marcus was being asked to do far more offensively than TA was at three years older.  In his rookie season, Marcus was being asked to average more three point shots a game than TA ever averaged in any four years of his career COMBINED.

And yes, Marcus is shooting so many three pointers because that's the role Stevens has put him in for the offense, much the same reason Sully kept chucking them the two previous seasons.

I remember Allen as better than Smart because, well, he was. Do you notice that his per-minute offensive production was vastly superior? That's because Tony Allen could make a layup. Heck, on occasion he could get to the basket and make a layup.

Also, your assertion that Allen was asked to do less is false. He has a higher usage rate than Marcus Smart did in his rookie year. Not to mention that "turnover machine" Tony Allen had just .4 TO per 36 more than Smart did as a rookie.

[celticsclay]

it really seems like Love's value has to be plummeting. He is making 21 million this season, 22 million next, 23 after that before culminating with 25.5 in the 19-20 season when he turns 30. He already arrived out of shape last season (according to Lebron James last year) and it has been implied by Lue that he is not in that great shape this season (along with everyone on the Cavs).

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

Edit: Also do people realize he is shooting 41-42% on the year and 34-35% from 3? He was shooting 41, 37 and 38% his last 3 healthy seasons in Minnesota from 3 with a much worse supporting cast and on more attempts. His overall shooting the last 3 years has also declined from .457 to .434 to .416. That is troubling.

[Donoghus]

it really seems like Love's value has to be plummeting. He is making 21 million this season, 22 million next, 23 after that before culminating with 25.5 in the 19-20 season when he turns 30. He already arrived out of shape last season (according to Lebron James last year) and it has been implied by Lue that he is not in that great shape this season (along with everyone on the Cavs).

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

No but that's not going to stop a lot of people from chasing him as their white whale.

[MBunge]

That's because Tony Allen could make a layup. Heck, on occasion he could get to the basket and make a layup.

And what would Tony Allen have looked like if his coach had him shooting over 4 three point shots a game?  And how many of those layups was TA initiating with the ball in his hand 18 feet from the basket?  The suggestion that TA and Marcus were being asked to do even remotely the same things on the court is ludicrous.

And of course, there's the whole three years younger thing.  Given what TA looked like at 23, what do you supposed he would have done on an NBA court at 20?

Mike

[JBcat]

it really seems like Love's value has to be plummeting. He is making 21 million this season, 22 million next, 23 after that before culminating with 25.5 in the 19-20 season when he turns 30. He already arrived out of shape last season (according to Lebron James last year) and it has been implied by Lue that he is not in that great shape this season (along with everyone on the Cavs).

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

Could be worth the risk though playing under Stevens.  Could help lure Horford, and in return help lure Durant.  Potential to be a devastating front line with lots of spacing.   The Cavs offense doesn't seem as free flowing as ours, and could help Love.  Too many isos on the Cavs. 

Even if all we get is Love we would still have assets to spare for other moves.

No but that's not going to stop a lot of people from chasing him as their white whale.

[SHAQATTACK]

I don't believe it ....gasp......Danny ......low ball .......

Hardly 

[PhoSita]

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

It'd be better than paying Sullinger $60 million over four years, or something similarly insane.

[celticsclay]

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

It'd be better than paying Sullinger $60 million over four years, or something similarly insane.

I would agree with that. However, I don't think those are the only two options. It would also be better than bring back Mark Blount

[SHAQATTACK]

I've fell out of love with Love....

Pass


Bring on the Boogie Man !

[byennie]

I've heard Lowe on podcasts with Bill Simmons expressing skepticism when Bill suggests Marcus Smart could some day be as good as Tony Allen.   

20-year-old rookie Marcus Smart was already better than 23-year-old rookie Tony Allen.  The difference is the level of expectation for a #6 pick on a team fighting to make the playoffs vs. a #25 pick playing a small role on a title contender.

Yeah, try that again. Tony Allen started 34 games on 45-win team in his rookie season. He was better defensively than Smart at that point, and wasn't a (complete) embarrassment when trying to score the ball. There's no comparison.

Talk about rose-colored glasses. Tony Allen was a useful role player who I enjoyed watching. Also, in 6 years with the Celtics, discounting his slightly better 06-07 run (33 games played), he:

1) Never averaged > 20 minutes OR 8 points OR 2 assists OR 3 rebounds. He's a career 28% from 3PT.

2) Was a good defender but never made a 1st or 2nd All-Defense team until 2011 in Memphis

3) Did have a high turnover rate for a non-shooting wing

Tony wasn't VASTLY better offensively than anyone on the Celtics then or now. At worst, they are equals defensively.

He also had 2 more years of college experience, and wasn't a point guard, a notoriously harder position on rookies.

[Chris22]

Love is overrated and overpaid.

[hwangjini_1]

Do we want to really commit to paying him 75 million over the next 3 seasons right now for what he is producing?

It'd be better than paying Sullinger $60 million over four years, or something similarly insane.

if the only two choices in the entire universe were these, you might have a point. but more choices are available.

[tankcity!]

I've heard Lowe on podcasts with Bill Simmons expressing skepticism when Bill suggests Marcus Smart could some day be as good as Tony Allen.   

20-year-old rookie Marcus Smart was already better than 23-year-old rookie Tony Allen.  The difference is the level of expectation for a #6 pick on a team fighting to make the playoffs vs. a #25 pick playing a small role on a title contender.

Yeah, try that again. Tony Allen started 34 games on 45-win team in his rookie season. He was better defensively than Smart at that point, and wasn't a (complete) embarrassment when trying to score the ball. There's no comparison.

Ah, rose-colored glasses.

Tony Allen rookie stats.
16.4 minutes a game.  6.4 pts.  2.9 rebs.  1 steal.  .8 assists.  1 turnover.  4.6 two point shots a game at 48%.  .4 three point shots a game at 38%.

Marcus Smart rookie stats.
27 minutes a game.  7.9 pts.  3.3 rebs.  1.5 steals.  3.1 assists.  1.3 turnovers.  3.1 two point shots a game at 41%.  4.1 three points shots a game at 33%.

You're remembering TA as better than Marcus primarily because TA wasn't asked to do much besides defend and make layups.  TA barely ever handled the ball, was a turnover machine when he did and was basically NEVER asked to space the floor with his jumpshot.  At three years younger, Marcus was being asked to do far more offensively than TA was at three years older.  In his rookie season, Marcus was being asked to average more three point shots a game than TA ever averaged in any four years of his career COMBINED.

And yes, Marcus is shooting so many three pointers because that's the role Stevens has put him in for the offense, much the same reason Sully kept chucking them the two previous seasons.

I remember Allen as better than Smart because, well, he was. Do you notice that his per-minute offensive production was vastly superior? That's because Tony Allen could make a layup. Heck, on occasion he could get to the basket and make a layup.

Also, your assertion that Allen was asked to do less is false. He has a higher usage rate than Marcus Smart did in his rookie year. Not to mention that "turnover machine" Tony Allen had just .4 TO per 36 more than Smart did as a rookie.

You just destroyed that guy.

[LarBrd33]

I've heard Lowe on podcasts with Bill Simmons expressing skepticism when Bill suggests Marcus Smart could some day be as good as Tony Allen.   

20-year-old rookie Marcus Smart was already better than 23-year-old rookie Tony Allen.  The difference is the level of expectation for a #6 pick on a team fighting to make the playoffs vs. a #25 pick playing a small role on a title contender.

Yeah, try that again. Tony Allen started 34 games on 45-win team in his rookie season. He was better defensively than Smart at that point, and wasn't a (complete) embarrassment when trying to score the ball. There's no comparison.

Ah, rose-colored glasses.

Tony Allen rookie stats.
16.4 minutes a game.  6.4 pts.  2.9 rebs.  1 steal.  .8 assists.  1 turnover.  4.6 two point shots a game at 48%.  .4 three point shots a game at 38%.

Marcus Smart rookie stats.
27 minutes a game.  7.9 pts.  3.3 rebs.  1.5 steals.  3.1 assists.  1.3 turnovers.  3.1 two point shots a game at 41%.  4.1 three points shots a game at 33%.

You're remembering TA as better than Marcus primarily because TA wasn't asked to do much besides defend and make layups.  TA barely ever handled the ball, was a turnover machine when he did and was basically NEVER asked to space the floor with his jumpshot.  At three years younger, Marcus was being asked to do far more offensively than TA was at three years older.  In his rookie season, Marcus was being asked to average more three point shots a game than TA ever averaged in any four years of his career COMBINED.

And yes, Marcus is shooting so many three pointers because that's the role Stevens has put him in for the offense, much the same reason Sully kept chucking them the two previous seasons.

I remember Allen as better than Smart because, well, he was. Do you notice that his per-minute offensive production was vastly superior? That's because Tony Allen could make a layup. Heck, on occasion he could get to the basket and make a layup.

Also, your assertion that Allen was asked to do less is false. He has a higher usage rate than Marcus Smart did in his rookie year. Not to mention that "turnover machine" Tony Allen had just .4 TO per 36 more than Smart did as a rookie.

You just destroyed that guy.

Allen finished up his second season with a pretty solid run averaging 14 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.3 steals with 56% shooting in April.  Here's hoping Smart does the same.

In Allen's 3rd season he had a 14 game stretch where it seemed like he finally broke out... averaging 19 points with 55% shooting until going down with an injury.  It was pretty exciting at the time... he had 20+ in his 7 games before the injury.  Can you even fathom Marcus Smart having 7 straight games with 20+ points? 

Anyways, the point I was bringing up was that we don't know who defined the offer as "lowball".  I've heard Lowe express skepticism that Smart will ever be as good as Tony Allen.  For all we know, the offer was Smart + the Brooklyn pick and the Cavs (or Lowe?) considered it a lowball offer for a star like Kevin Love.   Say what you will about Love's fit on the Cavs, but he's shown the talent to have an offense built around him.  They gave up a lot to get him.

[Eddie20]

Mannix said on Toucher and Rich that the Celtics are the king of the low ball offers. That they'll try to get a star by offering Lee and Jerebko.