Lol predicable.
As soon as I saw the news, I assumed someone would be calling me out on Celticsblog. So just to get this out of the way...
Before the draft this year it was pretty clear there was a big drop-off before our range (#16). This was confirmed pretty handily when we reportedly offered #16 + three additional 1st round picks (including the Brooklyn 2016 1st according to Bill Simmons) in an effort to move up from #16 to #9. We couldn't do it. Shame, because there's a handful of quality players who were taken before #16 like Winslow, Miles Turner and Devin Booker. But the consensus seemed to be that by the time we picked, it was a crap shoot.
So I floated the idea (which I admitted was ridiculous at the time) asking if it would be worth it to trade the #16 pick for a buy low bust with potential.
My case for Anthony Bennett:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78383.0My case for Nik Stauskas:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=78864.0The whole premise was that both of those guys were awful and obviously available... so would we be better off gambling on one of those busts finally reaching their potential or gambling on ending up with something substantial at #16? I was trying to start a discussion during a boring part of the year. I also acknowledged that there was a decent chance none of those guys would be in the league in the few years (Stauskas, Bennett or whatever we ended up with at #16). Based on James Young weak start (#17 pick who couldn't get out of d-league), I wasn't all that optimistic about the draft pick. I wasn't all that optimistic about Bennett or Stauskas either, but I saw the case for gambling on one of them.
So anyways, Bennett's season averages 1.5 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0 assists, 0.0 blocks and 0.3 steals with 30% shooting and 21% from the line were awful. Maybe he never plays a meaningful NBA minute.
But we also ended up reaching at #16 for a guy who was projected 2nd round in a lot of mocks (Terry Rozier) and so far his season averages are a Bennett-esque: 1.4 points, 0.9 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0 blocks, 0 steals with 24% shooting and 15% from three... who knows if he'll have a career either. The "crap shoot" label of that draft range seems to have been fitting. Lots of people here think the guys we took 28th and 33rd will be better than the guy who took #16.
As for Nik Stauskas, he's shooting 48%/49%/80% this month. He might actually end up having a career.
Mario Hezonja has has a pretty disappointing start to his rookie season. At some point this offseason I might start a thread that says something to the extent of, "If the Brooklyn pick ends up outside of the top 5, would you trade it for Hezonja?" ... and I'm sure that'll get taken out of context if Hezonja fails to ever make it in the league. In general, I like like the idea of buying low on young prospects who have failed to live up to their potential yet and can be had for cheap. Ainge has a rich history of targeting those types.