2016 draft - 5 picks deep

[max215]

These type of threads are interesting to me as I have no interest in watching college ball and therefore have no opinion on the talent.

I am interested in knowing how those providing opinons on these threads are developing their opinons.  I'm curious to what degree people are forming opinions by watching games and identifying competition level,  vs. watching highlights, reading blogs, reading columnists...  And how many of you have a long history of college/draft watching.

KeepRondo:  When you concluded last year that the draft was 10 or so deep, was it about this time of year or was it after the tournaments?

Lastly, typically how much do conference tournaments, NITs and NCAAs impact drafts?  Are there always a few who emerge as prospects in the tournaments?

Personally, I try to watch whenever two top 25 teams (or one team with an interesting prospect vs. a top 25 team, like Cal vs. Arizona this past Friday) with interesting prospects play. I find that this mitigates any questions of competition level. I then try to focus on the one player I want to see and I watch him on both sides of the ball, looking for what he does well. Jaylen Brown, for example, seems very good at getting to the hoop and his athleticism is unreal. I think he has a decent enough foundation of a jumpshot to be worth an early pick when you take his strengths into account. I'm certainly no expert, but I can get a pretty good idea of who I'd like the Celtics to draft.

[Murta]

Can't understand all the fuss and fascination with Bender. I mean, the kid can play alright, he's tall, he's very young so there's enough time for him to develop....BUT, we talking here about pure potential. There's a very good chance he becones Bruno Sundov 2.0. C'mon, he is projected to be No 3 in the draft based on what? A couple of games he played in sone junior tournaments, or a trash time he plays for Maccabi? Yeah right, look at Hezonja... I think he should thank Porzingis for being that high in the draft...maybe I'm wrong...actually I wish I am wrong because I'm from Croatia and would like to see kid make it, just not with us...I want someone who could help our team right away, not a project for the next 3-5 years...

Bender has been an NBA draft prospect since he was 15, scouts first noticed him in 2012 playing for Split. Here's the link in Croatian. It says Bender had quadruple double game against Bologna.
Porzingis started gaining interest in the summer of 2013, but hasn't really been that scouted until applying for 2014 draft in March. That popular mantra that Bender is a result of Porzingis' hype is completely and utterly wrong.
But yeah, Bender is all about potential when it comes to the NBA. He's not going to particularly help his team win until his 3rd year.

[BornReady]

Is bender really as good as everyone says he is?
Bender seems like a poor scorer as well as streaky outside shooter
He doesn't use his height advantage to score in the paint against smaller guys
Which seems like the obvious thing for a big guy to do
Defensively it is the opposite, he uses his length and height to dominate opponents


He's mentality scoring wise is a lot different from porzingis
However I would still pick him 3rd as he has more potential to be a star  than other players not named Simmons and Ingram

[wiley]

Is bender really as good as everyone says he is?
Bender seems like a poor scorer as well as streaky outside shooter
He doesn't use his height advantage to score in the paint against smaller guys
Which seems like the obvious thing for a big guy to do
Defensively it is the opposite, he uses his length and height to dominate opponents


He's mentality scoring wise is a lot different from porzingis
However I would still pick him 3rd as he has more potential to be a star  than other players not named Simmons and Ingram

If you're right about his defense then I agree.  If he's going to be a defensive stud then take him.  He's got enough offense to be good enough there down the pike....

I'm so curious about Jaylen Brown.  He's way down in people's general estimation, but should he be?  Do the Celtics like him?  Does he have enough IQ/defensive skills to stay on the floor in year one?  And if not is he a guy the Celtics would be happy to be patient with?  Would Stevens want a player like him?  I want those questions answered now not in June!!! 

[KG Living Legend]

 I'm not getting into the logistics of what guys belong where you named the top 6 players.

 Here is a list of guys I'd love to add to our beloved misfits.

 Jakob Poeltl
 Buddy Hield, your nuts if you don't like him.
 Ivan Rabb, still growing huge Upside.
 Denzel Valentine, 6'6" point forward.
 Diamond Stone. Mountain of a man. Inside scorer.
 Sabonis Solid big. Skilled. Rebounder.
 Brice Johnson. Poor mans Matrix. Celtics pick.
 Levert. Swiss army knife. Does it all 6'7"
 Damion Jones. Center. Would help us. Athletic.

 That's 9 guys not including Murray who's not my favorite. And Bacon who Id take a chance on later in the draft.

 So now we are up to 17 solid NBA prospects that this Scout likes.

[KG Living Legend]

How you gonna say there are only 6 guys to draft and not say who they are? I'd put Simmons and Ingram in that top 6 for sure, and then I have a gigantic bubble. I don't like Ellenson at all, who seems to be floating up the mock draft boards into the vacuum left by Skal, Brown, and others. by default. Is Ivan Rabb on your list? Poeltl? Are you all in on old man Kris Dunn? No doubts about the Israeli bench warmer who would probably be an afterthought right now were it not for Porzingis?

Anyways, the outlook seems super fuzzy to me. Dunn looks great but I don't want him. Bender's a wildcard. Ellenson is the long lost Zeller brother. I'd like all these guys in mid-first. Brown is an Oubre-like hype freshman with huge growing pains. Jamal Murray is the next in a long line of yawn-inducing good-but-not-special point guard prospects who would probably be anonymous if he weren't at Kentucky. Korkmaz is a speculation at best, and a deep one at that.

There will be more to come into focus, I'm sure, but if you had to call it now I really don't see how you are excited about anyone near the top of this draft aside from Simmons, Ingram, Poeltl, and Rabb.

Afterthought? I remember reading about Bender as a potential future lotto pick when Prozingis was being looked at in the 17-23 range of the '14 draft.

Bender's the real deal and has been for a long time. Porzingis' success, along with the success of guy like Jusuf Nurkic, Nicola Mirotic, Jonas Valanciunas, and even Enes Kanter and Alex Len have been the icing on the cake of his draft stock. They've helped to change the stigma of the Euro big man especially now that shooting and handling skills are so much more valued at the PF spot than they used to be.

Meh I guess you're right, I should dial that back. Bender was certainly being talked about as a potential future lotto pick as early as the Euro U18 championships in summer 2014. I was blinded by Porzingomania, perhaps. Bender has been whisper quiet since his days playing in the youth tourneys; hopefully he is on his way to more minutes and more Euroleague game tape for us to pick at before June comes around.

Good points, Smartacus, and thanks for inspiring me to do some research that is making me more optimistic about our draft slot.

Thanks bud, You are right that he's has been quiet this year but then Macabi Tel Aviv is also a legitimate squad on the world stage. They cant sacrifice wins to develop Bender, in the mean time though you can bet he's benefiting from the atmosphere and coaching staff more than he would if he was getting more minutes on a worse team.

Trust me I'm not saying Bender is the next KG like rangey, athletic monster by any means but i do like the feel of this kid. Seems like he's got a drive to succeed, can move his feet on defense and has good, repeatable mechanics on his shot.

Ya see it every day online "this draft is weak, this draft is awful" by people who really don't spend much time researching the prospects. A lot of people thought the 2011 Draft class was weak after Kyrie and it has 14 Players currently playing on max or near max contracts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft

 Thank you Smart Cus, people are overreacting so bad. Nobody really knows for three years, this looks like every other draft. Unpredictable.

[Denis998]

Simmons, Ingram, Dunn, Brown, Murray.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Unpopular opinion alert ...

Bender looks more like Jonas Jerebko than he does Kristaps Porzingis to me.

He is not a natural scorer, nor does he want to be.

[Celtics4ever]

Quote
Is bender really as good as everyone says he is?
Bender seems like a poor scorer as well as streaky outside shooter
He doesn't use his height advantage to score in the paint against smaller guys
Which seems like the obvious thing for a big guy to do
Defensively it is the opposite, he uses his length and height to dominate opponents


He's mentality scoring wise is a lot different from porzingis
However I would still pick him 3rd as he has more potential to be a star  than other players not named Simmons and Ingram

Right now, more hype than bite, I fear.

http://www.vavel.com/en-us/nba/582356-dragan-bender-expected-to-be-next-big-euro-mystery-man-of-nba.html

He is project that someone will draft for his potential.  Great size, middling athletic ability.

[BitterJim]

How you gonna say there are only 6 guys to draft and not say who they are? I'd put Simmons and Ingram in that top 6 for sure, and then I have a gigantic bubble. I don't like Ellenson at all, who seems to be floating up the mock draft boards into the vacuum left by Skal, Brown, and others. by default. Is Ivan Rabb on your list? Poeltl? Are you all in on old man Kris Dunn? No doubts about the Israeli bench warmer who would probably be an afterthought right now were it not for Porzingis?

Anyways, the outlook seems super fuzzy to me. Dunn looks great but I don't want him. Bender's a wildcard. Ellenson is the long lost Zeller brother. I'd like all these guys in mid-first. Brown is an Oubre-like hype freshman with huge growing pains. Jamal Murray is the next in a long line of yawn-inducing good-but-not-special point guard prospects who would probably be anonymous if he weren't at Kentucky. Korkmaz is a speculation at best, and a deep one at that.

There will be more to come into focus, I'm sure, but if you had to call it now I really don't see how you are excited about anyone near the top of this draft aside from Simmons, Ingram, Poeltl, and Rabb.

Afterthought? I remember reading about Bender as a potential future lotto pick when Prozingis was being looked at in the 17-23 range of the '14 draft.

Bender's the real deal and has been for a long time. Porzingis' success, along with the success of guy like Jusuf Nurkic, Nicola Mirotic, Jonas Valanciunas, and even Enes Kanter and Alex Len have been the icing on the cake of his draft stock. They've helped to change the stigma of the Euro big man especially now that shooting and handling skills are so much more valued at the PF spot than they used to be.

Meh I guess you're right, I should dial that back. Bender was certainly being talked about as a potential future lotto pick as early as the Euro U18 championships in summer 2014. I was blinded by Porzingomania, perhaps. Bender has been whisper quiet since his days playing in the youth tourneys; hopefully he is on his way to more minutes and more Euroleague game tape for us to pick at before June comes around.

Good points, Smartacus, and thanks for inspiring me to do some research that is making me more optimistic about our draft slot.

Thanks bud, You are right that he's has been quiet this year but then Macabi Tel Aviv is also a legitimate squad on the world stage. They cant sacrifice wins to develop Bender, in the mean time though you can bet he's benefiting from the atmosphere and coaching staff more than he would if he was getting more minutes on a worse team.

Trust me I'm not saying Bender is the next KG like rangey, athletic monster by any means but i do like the feel of this kid. Seems like he's got a drive to succeed, can move his feet on defense and has good, repeatable mechanics on his shot.

Ya see it every day online "this draft is weak, this draft is awful" by people who really don't spend much time researching the prospects. A lot of people thought the 2011 Draft class was weak after Kyrie and it has 14 Players currently playing on max or near max contracts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft

It made me really happy to scroll to the bottom of that draft list and see Isaih Thomas denoted as an All Star 

[KeepRondo]

 I'm not getting into the logistics of what guys belong where you named the top 6 players.

 Here is a list of guys I'd love to add to our beloved misfits.

 Jakob Poeltl
 Buddy Hield, your nuts if you don't like him.
 Ivan Rabb, still growing huge Upside.
 Denzel Valentine, 6'6" point forward.
 Diamond Stone. Mountain of a man. Inside scorer.
 Sabonis Solid big. Skilled. Rebounder.
 Brice Johnson. Poor mans Matrix. Celtics pick.
 Levert. Swiss army knife. Does it all 6'7"
 Damion Jones. Center. Would help us. Athletic.

 That's 9 guys not including Murray who's not my favorite. And Bacon who Id take a chance on later in the draft.

 So now we are up to 17 solid NBA prospects that this Scout likes.

Some of these guys may end up being decent but they don't have the same potential.

I question Hield's vertical. Seems like he doesn't get much lift and doesn't have quickness or height to make up for that.

Valentine can do a little of everything but is too slow to play small forward and too short to play power forward in the NBA. He's crafty enough to find a niche but no screaming potential here either.

Sabonis is only 6'10 with shoes and wingspan of 6'10. He does like Valentine, have game, but he doesn't have potential like the top 6 do. His size will hurt him.

Don't know much about Rabb

Diamond Stone I am intrigued by. He could be a steal.

Chris Lavert the guy at Michigan who's been there 4 years?

[chilidawg]

Every draft has a number of surprises, guys going on to have excellent nba careers despite being lower picks.  One great advantage of having a lot of picks is that we'll have a number of chances at landing one of those outliers.  I look forward to an interesting summer league and training camp as 7 draft choices get to duke it out.

[i believe in brad]

Every draft has a number of surprises, guys going on to have excellent nba careers despite being lower picks.  One great advantage of having a lot of picks is that we'll have a number of chances at landing one of those outliers.  I look forward to an interesting summer league and training camp as 7 draft choices get to duke it out.

We won't make all 7 of those picks, probably not even close to 7.

[KG Living Legend]

 I'm not getting into the logistics of what guys belong where you named the top 6 players.

 Here is a list of guys I'd love to add to our beloved misfits.

 Jakob Poeltl
 Buddy Hield, your nuts if you don't like him.
 Ivan Rabb, still growing huge Upside.
 Denzel Valentine, 6'6" point forward.
 Diamond Stone. Mountain of a man. Inside scorer.
 Sabonis Solid big. Skilled. Rebounder.
 Brice Johnson. Poor mans Matrix. Celtics pick.
 Levert. Swiss army knife. Does it all 6'7"
 Damion Jones. Center. Would help us. Athletic.

 That's 9 guys not including Murray who's not my favorite. And Bacon who Id take a chance on later in the draft.

 So now we are up to 17 solid NBA prospects that this Scout likes.

Some of these guys may end up being decent but they don't have the same potential.

I question Hield's vertical. Seems like he doesn't get much lift and doesn't have quickness or height to make up for that.

Valentine can do a little of everything but is too slow to play small forward and too short to play power forward in the NBA. He's crafty enough to find a niche but no screaming potential here either.

Sabonis is only 6'10 with shoes and wingspan of 6'10. He does like Valentine, have game, but he doesn't have potential like the top 6 do. His size will hurt him.

Don't know much about Rabb

Diamond Stone I am intrigued by. He could be a steal.

Chris Lavert the guy at Michigan who's been there 4 years?

 Yeah Rondo, I mean of course there not in the same league as the top 5.

 Every prospects have flaws, hell even Simmons doesn't have a jumpshot, but would you take him of course.

 Simply stating that the is a lot of interesting prospects.

 Often in the draft outside of the studs, you look for his that can really excel in one area. Maybe Two.

 Valentine can Shoot and Pass and Board.
 He's got a place in the NBA no doubt.

[chilidawg]

Every draft has a number of surprises, guys going on to have excellent nba careers despite being lower picks.  One great advantage of having a lot of picks is that we'll have a number of chances at landing one of those outliers.  I look forward to an interesting summer league and training camp as 7 draft choices get to duke it out.

We won't make all 7 of those picks, probably not even close to 7.

I guess you have a crystal ball.  We'll just have to wait and see.