2016 draft - 5 picks deep

[Evantime34]

Poeltl went for 29-10 on the 5-2 Washington Huskies two nights ago (at the time, they were 5-1).  He's not a slouch by any means

There's a good chance he will be a slouch in the NBA.

I think he is actually a pretty safe pick, but less likely to be a star.

He has good size, has shown the ability to play the pick and roll. He can rebound and score in the post. He's becoming a better shooter and adding strength as his college career goes along.

My issue is that he might be the type of guy that teams need to take out of the game in crunch team when opponents go small.

Maybe he doesn't have huge star potential but I think he's a pretty safe bet for a rotation player/stater in the NBA. So not a slouch but not a star either.

[KeepRondo]

Poeltl went for 29-10 on the 5-2 Washington Huskies two nights ago (at the time, they were 5-1).  He's not a slouch by any means

There's a good chance he will be a slouch in the NBA.

I think he is actually a pretty safe pick, but less likely to be a star.

He has good size, has shown the ability to play the pick and roll. He can rebound and score in the post. He's becoming a better shooter and adding strength as his college career goes along.

My issue is that he might be the type of guy that teams need to take out of the game in crunch team when opponents go small.

Maybe he doesn't have huge star potential but I think he's a pretty safe bet for a rotation player/stater in the NBA. So not a slouch but not a star either.

He feels like a guy you take late lottery or right after. This years draft is pretty weak so he might go higher. But there's not one thing about his game that I'm blown away by. And he lacks lateral quickness.

[PhoSita]

Yeah Poeltl seems like a guy who will definitely be able to play in the NBA, but it's not so easy to see how he could be a star there.

Seems like the best case for him is probably something along the lines of Jonas Valanciunas or Marcin Gortat.  But he might be more like Timofey Mozgov or Kosta Koufos.

[sofutomygaha]

How you gonna say there are only 6 guys to draft and not say who they are? I'd put Simmons and Ingram in that top 6 for sure, and then I have a gigantic bubble. I don't like Ellenson at all, who seems to be floating up the mock draft boards into the vacuum left by Skal, Brown, and others. by default. Is Ivan Rabb on your list? Poeltl? Are you all in on old man Kris Dunn? No doubts about the Israeli bench warmer who would probably be an afterthought right now were it not for Porzingis?

Anyways, the outlook seems super fuzzy to me. Dunn looks great but I don't want him. Bender's a wildcard. Ellenson is the long lost Zeller brother. I'd like all these guys in mid-first. Brown is an Oubre-like hype freshman with huge growing pains. Jamal Murray is the next in a long line of yawn-inducing good-but-not-special point guard prospects who would probably be anonymous if he weren't at Kentucky. Korkmaz is a speculation at best, and a deep one at that.

There will be more to come into focus, I'm sure, but if you had to call it now I really don't see how you are excited about anyone near the top of this draft aside from Simmons, Ingram, Poeltl, and Rabb.

Afterthought? I remember reading about Bender as a potential future lotto pick when Prozingis was being looked at in the 17-23 range of the '14 draft.

Bender's the real deal and has been for a long time. Porzingis' success, along with the success of guy like Jusuf Nurkic, Nicola Mirotic, Jonas Valanciunas, and even Enes Kanter and Alex Len have been the icing on the cake of his draft stock. They've helped to change the stigma of the Euro big man especially now that shooting and handling skills are so much more valued at the PF spot than they used to be.

Meh I guess you're right, I should dial that back. Bender was certainly being talked about as a potential future lotto pick as early as the Euro U18 championships in summer 2014. I was blinded by Porzingomania, perhaps. Bender has been whisper quiet since his days playing in the youth tourneys; hopefully he is on his way to more minutes and more Euroleague game tape for us to pick at before June comes around.

Good points, Smartacus, and thanks for inspiring me to do some research that is making me more optimistic about our draft slot.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Who are your top 6? Simmons, Ingram, Bender, Brown, Dunn, Poeltl? If so I pretty much agree with that.

Although just like every other year I expect some guys picked after the lottery to excel. I think the depth of this draft outside of those 6 will be almost completely determined by how the foreign class turns out.

I'm very iffy on Poeltl. I think someone probably still gambles on Labissiere.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1nuINTa9lQ

Skal seems to be the big X-factor this year if he comes out.  I agree someone will take a chance on him, the question is, how high up?

My guess is probably as high as 4. It's either Dunn or Labissiere there.

interesting.  I would have pegged Simmons, Ingram, Brown and Bender as top 4.  probably Dunn and Poeltl in 5 and 6 and then Skal at some point soon after that.  I suppose it would depend on the team drafting if they want to go with a moderate ceiling/high floor player vs a high ceiling/potential bust player like Skal.

Brown doesn't have much game. So he's someone that is going to have to develop. I think Dunn probably goes before him but if someone wants to take a chance on Brown, he probably has more long term potential.

Still either one of these guys is way ahead of anyone after the 6th pick as far as skill or potential.

Unfortunately for Skal they're plenty of prospects in next years draft that are same or better potential and less risk.

I read that teams are looking to trade future picks for vet players right now. Raptors are looking for a stretch 4 and are offering a good pick this year(I'll update it later) or future picks. We just really need to consolidate both players and picks, maybe we can make a great trade at the deadline and package some 2nd rounders this year and a pf or another needed player and get back players and 2017 firsts.

* raptors have lesser of Knicks- Nuggets pick this year, I think, but what teams would be good to trade with so we can basically consolidate and transfer picks for 2017 draft....TP FOR ANYONE WHO CAN HELP ANSWER.....I'm literally being nagged to death right now to help "deep clean" our house.

[PhoSita]

I'm with Sofutomygaha on this -- looks like a 2 player draft to me, followed by a handful of guys who I could talk myself into but with significant question marks.


Poeltl -- How will he score in the NBA?

Dunn -- How does he fit on the Celts?  Can he produce like this at the NBA level, since he's already 22?

Ellenson -- Can he actually shoot or play defense in the NBA?

Brown -- Can he shoot, pass, defend, or do anything else aside from drive and rebound?

Bender -- Is he closer to Kristaps or Vesely?

Skal -- Is he more Channing Frye or LaMarcus Aldridge?

Murray -- Anything more than another bench-caliber combo guard?

Rabb -- Does he have the strength, size, touch to play a featured role at the NBA level?

Stone -- What's his place in the modern NBA?

[Evantime34]

Poeltl went for 29-10 on the 5-2 Washington Huskies two nights ago (at the time, they were 5-1).  He's not a slouch by any means

There's a good chance he will be a slouch in the NBA.

I think he is actually a pretty safe pick, but less likely to be a star.

He has good size, has shown the ability to play the pick and roll. He can rebound and score in the post. He's becoming a better shooter and adding strength as his college career goes along.

My issue is that he might be the type of guy that teams need to take out of the game in crunch team when opponents go small.

Maybe he doesn't have huge star potential but I think he's a pretty safe bet for a rotation player/stater in the NBA. So not a slouch but not a star either.

He feels like a guy you take late lottery or right after. This years draft is pretty weak so he might go higher. But there's not one thing about his game that I'm blown away by. And he lacks lateral quickness.

Most mocks have him in the top 10.

The Draft express video refers to him as "a tremendous blend of size and mobility" as well as referring to him "as super agile" as well as indicating "can step out and guard on the perimeter. So that contradicts him having a lack of lateral quickness.

Poeltl is, however, becoming just that. Utah currently lists him as a 248-pounder on their website, yet he has exhibited impressive agility for someone his size. Larry Krystkowiak has become more and more comfortable having him consistently switch on ball screens and Poeltl has proven himself to be up to the task.

http://upsidemotor.com/2016/01/08/jakob-poeltl-utah-utes-2016-nba-draft-scouting-report/

[celticmania]

I actually like Jaylen Brown. 6'7 wing 7 foot wingspan super quick and strong.  Has a killer in and out dribble and fantastic hesitation. Needs to tighten it just a tad but has good scoring instincts and footwork.  Needs to work on jumper and limit turnovers. He reminds me of Jimmy Butler. I think he has the potential to be that good or better if he works on his jump shot. I don't love this draft. It seems like every prospect has a MAJOR weakness or two and they don't seem like future stars

1 Ben Simmons- broken jumper
2 Brandon Ingram- skinny and slow
3 Kris Dunn- has all the tools just a little old
4 Jaylen Brown- jumper
5 Dragan Bender- lacks length, below nba standards athletically
6 Poetl- lacks length,  not an elite shot blocker
7 Skal- just look at his rebounding numbers

[Ilikesports17]

I remember last year thinking it was pretty clear.

Towns Okafor Mudiay Winslow Johnson Russell Turner WCS Hezonja  Porzingis Oubre and Looney were my clear top 12.

That didnt turn out to be completely accurate but you cant win em all.

Now I generated this top 12 by looking at a bunch of mocks and interestingly enough I did this feb 15 last year so about on the same timeline.

Okafor was #1 everywhere. No one had Porzingis higher than 8 and no one saw high ceiling guys like Turner and Oubre falling quite as far as they did. Booker Lyles Portis Harrel were seen as the notch below and Frank was not on anyones radar.

I havent looked enough at the draft outside of Brown Dunn Ingram Simmons to break it down into tiers with any knowledge of the players so Ill just try and mention who I think will be interesting to watch.

Korkmaz--> who is he what is he, could he creep into the top 10? could he pull a Saric causing him to drop (maybe to one of our later picks)

Poeltl--> Seems like a solid defensive center. Is big can run floor, but worth a top 10 pick? I have no idea

Rabb--> last few years Ive been against drafting a PF but now think it is a need. Rabb seems to have all the physical tools and a high ceiling. can he distinguish himself as a potential star PF?

Heild--> can he continue his torrid pace, have a Frank the Tank type March?

Brice Johnson--> Similar to heild. Having terrific season, March could play big role.

Skal--> could be Turner/Oubre of draft. Came into college ranked really really high then proved immediately that he was too raw. I think both Indiana and Washington are really happy they were able to get these high ceiling guys at 11 and 15.

Those are the guys I will be keeping my eye on over the next few months. Also Bender is obviously a big one to follow. Depending how these guys wrap up the season will go a long way in determining the tiers and depth of the draft. So Im not ready just yet to call it an "x player draft" like I was last year.

That being said I dont see anyone catching Simmons-Ingram unless something goes wrong.

[Smartacus]

How you gonna say there are only 6 guys to draft and not say who they are? I'd put Simmons and Ingram in that top 6 for sure, and then I have a gigantic bubble. I don't like Ellenson at all, who seems to be floating up the mock draft boards into the vacuum left by Skal, Brown, and others. by default. Is Ivan Rabb on your list? Poeltl? Are you all in on old man Kris Dunn? No doubts about the Israeli bench warmer who would probably be an afterthought right now were it not for Porzingis?

Anyways, the outlook seems super fuzzy to me. Dunn looks great but I don't want him. Bender's a wildcard. Ellenson is the long lost Zeller brother. I'd like all these guys in mid-first. Brown is an Oubre-like hype freshman with huge growing pains. Jamal Murray is the next in a long line of yawn-inducing good-but-not-special point guard prospects who would probably be anonymous if he weren't at Kentucky. Korkmaz is a speculation at best, and a deep one at that.

There will be more to come into focus, I'm sure, but if you had to call it now I really don't see how you are excited about anyone near the top of this draft aside from Simmons, Ingram, Poeltl, and Rabb.

Afterthought? I remember reading about Bender as a potential future lotto pick when Prozingis was being looked at in the 17-23 range of the '14 draft.

Bender's the real deal and has been for a long time. Porzingis' success, along with the success of guy like Jusuf Nurkic, Nicola Mirotic, Jonas Valanciunas, and even Enes Kanter and Alex Len have been the icing on the cake of his draft stock. They've helped to change the stigma of the Euro big man especially now that shooting and handling skills are so much more valued at the PF spot than they used to be.

Meh I guess you're right, I should dial that back. Bender was certainly being talked about as a potential future lotto pick as early as the Euro U18 championships in summer 2014. I was blinded by Porzingomania, perhaps. Bender has been whisper quiet since his days playing in the youth tourneys; hopefully he is on his way to more minutes and more Euroleague game tape for us to pick at before June comes around.

Good points, Smartacus, and thanks for inspiring me to do some research that is making me more optimistic about our draft slot.

Thanks bud, You are right that he's has been quiet this year but then Macabi Tel Aviv is also a legitimate squad on the world stage. They cant sacrifice wins to develop Bender, in the mean time though you can bet he's benefiting from the atmosphere and coaching staff more than he would if he was getting more minutes on a worse team.

Trust me I'm not saying Bender is the next KG like rangey, athletic monster by any means but i do like the feel of this kid. Seems like he's got a drive to succeed, can move his feet on defense and has good, repeatable mechanics on his shot.

Ya see it every day online "this draft is weak, this draft is awful" by people who really don't spend much time researching the prospects. A lot of people thought the 2011 Draft class was weak after Kyrie and it has 14 Players currently playing on max or near max contracts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NBA_draft

[CroCorvus]

Can't understand all the fuss and fascination with Bender. I mean, the kid can play alright, he's tall, he's very young so there's enough time for him to develop....BUT, we talking here about pure potential. There's a very good chance he becones Bruno Sundov 2.0. C'mon, he is projected to be No 3 in the draft based on what? A couple of games he played in sone junior tournaments, or a trash time he plays for Maccabi? Yeah right, look at Hezonja... I think he should thank Porzingis for being that high in the draft...maybe I'm wrong...actually I wish I am wrong because I'm from Croatia and would like to see kid make it, just not with us...I want someone who could help our team right away, not a project for the next 3-5 years...

[Smartacus]

Can't understand all the fuss and fascination with Bender. I mean, the kid can play alright, he's tall, he's very young so there's enough time for him to develop....BUT, we talking here about pure potential. There's a very good chance he becones Bruno Sundov 2.0. C'mon, he is projected to be No 3 in the draft based on what? A couple of games he played in sone junior tournaments, or a trash time he plays for Maccabi? Yeah right, look at Hezonja... I think he should thank Porzingis for being that high in the draft...maybe I'm wrong...actually I wish I am wrong because I'm from Croatia and would like to see kid make it, just not with us...I want someone who could help our team right away, not a project for the next 3-5 years...

Mike Schmidt from Draft Express who's the voice I trust the most on draft related conversations describes it really well in this podcast IMO.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/240287/RealGM-Radio-NBA-Draft-With-Sam-Vecenie-Mike-Schmitz
(Great listen, it was about a month ago but the information is still relevant.)

His main points are that despite his mediocre wingspan his standing reach will be fine for a SF/PF/C and that's the real key with him, positional versatility. Schmidt envisions Bender developing into a high level starting SF/PF that while not big enough to play center primarily will be able to play the 5 against bench units, when the other starters go out maybe for about 10 minutes or so a game.

That's really valuable for putting out 48 minutes of quality production, it reminds me of how Lebron, Bosh, and Wade would start, Bron and Wade would get some rest and they would leave Bosh out there to get some of the shots that he missed out on with the first unit.

He also has Ingram over Simmons #1 which I personally disagree with, thinks Jaylen Brown might have too many interest outside of basketball and could struggle to impress teams in the interview process, and is really  high on Jonathon Jeanne out of France for his absurd length and shooting ability.

Edit: Fixed grammatical errors and phrasing.

[Neurotic Guy]

These type of threads are interesting to me as I have no interest in watching college ball and therefore have no opinion on the talent.

I am interested in knowing how those providing opinons on these threads are developing their opinons.  I'm curious to what degree people are forming opinions by watching games and identifying competition level,  vs. watching highlights, reading blogs, reading columnists...  And how many of you have a long history of college/draft watching.

KeepRondo:  When you concluded last year that the draft was 10 or so deep, was it about this time of year or was it after the tournaments?

Lastly, typically how much do conference tournaments, NITs and NCAAs impact drafts?  Are there always a few who emerge as prospects in the tournaments?

[Irish Stew]

I'm willing to keep an open mind about Hield, but right now I'm only interested in Simmons and Ingram. If we're not in a position to draft either, then we should shop this pick hard for a young NBA player with a possible big upside. I would consider guys like Noel and Hezonja among others. The depth of this year's draft is really disappointing to me.

[KeepRondo]

These type of threads are interesting to me as I have no interest in watching college ball and therefore have no opinion on the talent.

I am interested in knowing how those providing opinons on these threads are developing their opinons.  I'm curious to what degree people are forming opinions by watching games and identifying competition level,  vs. watching highlights, reading blogs, reading columnists...  And how many of you have a long history of college/draft watching.

KeepRondo:  When you concluded last year that the draft was 10 or so deep, was it about this time of year or was it after the tournaments?

Lastly, typically how much do conference tournaments, NITs and NCAAs impact drafts?  Are there always a few who emerge as prospects in the tournaments?

I can't remember if it was before or after the tourney but I was certainly starting to get an idea around now.

I also think if you got an eye for good basketball, that it's pretty hard these days, with all the access to highlights and game replays, to not know who the best players are.

Ingram reminds me of a taller and slightly smoother version of Josh Childress.

Dunn is probably the player the Celtics would had wanted over Rozier. Has much better body control and is much smoother.

Brown is the best athlete in the draft. And plays with grit. So that makes up for his lack of game. Still needs to develop.

Don't think I need to talk about Simmons.

Bender reminds me of a young Pau Gasol but would need to add muscle. Tough to get a feel from playing against bad competition tho.