MIA was under-performing for a while despite an extreme early imbalance in home vs road games. They've been projected behind the Cs for a while because of it. ESPN's has them seeded 8th ahead of NYK, CHA, and WAS who are all projected to be in the high 30 win territory. If ESPN's model is like most of the other predictive models, it should vary +/- 3 games and thus have 39-45 wins. Currently 57% chance of being in the playoffs and if so, would end up with the 17th pick. If they do fall into the lottery, it's going to be at the very end and the pick is top 10 protected anyhow, Severe injuries or major moves can blow things out of the water either way, but IIRC, MIA doesn't have much leeway to get better at the trade deadline given their tight cap situation.
JMO, but that pick (or our BOS and DAL picks) are strictly a crapshoot in what looks to be a weaker draft than the last 2, but better than 2013. IOW, top 10 or bust is where you want to be,