ESPN's Most Disappointing Rookies and Sophomores

[colincb]

This will have fans of the PROCESS seeing red.

I usually cut the heck out of these articles before posting the relevant C's sections here, but given the many arguments over these guys, I thought I'd make an exception and give you most of it. ESPN Insider actually has some pretty good stuff and you get 26 magazines a year to go with it too for $30 or roughly a week's worth of coffee from Starbucks.

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14533145/the-most-disappointing-rookies-sophomores-season-nba

Steve Ilardi and Jeremias Engelmann [ESPN Stat gurus and creators of Real +/-]

Today we'll look at seven highly-touted rookies and sophomores who've been particularly disappointing during the first half of the 2015-16 campaign.


Struggling rookies

Rocky start in Philly: Jahlil Okafor

The Philadelphia 76ers have been woeful throughout Sam Hinkie's tenure as general manager. And the play of Jahlil Okafor, the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft, is one reason we're now witnessing the third straight season of Hinkie Era woe.

While Okafor is averaging nearly 20 points and nine boards per 36 minutes of play, those numbers are the NBA equivalent of empty calories. Philly has been outscored by a staggering 19.2 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court. If any team played an entire season that poorly, it would shatter the all-time record for futility.

And yet with Okafor on the bench, the Sixers have actually put up a respectable net efficiency of -2.5, a bit better than this year's Washington Wizards. So it's perhaps no surprise that Okafor currently ranks dead last in Real Plus-Minus (with a -6.90 RPM) among all active players.


NBA-ready or not: Emmanuel Mudiay

Mudiay, who skipped college to play professional ball last year in China, was scouted as a more NBA-ready prospect than the typical one-and-done freshman. But it has been a rough adjustment for the Denver rookie so far.

The Nuggets' young point guard has put up by far the lowest true shooting percentage (38.0) of any player in the league, and he has coughed up a devastating number of turnovers -- 4.9 per 36 minutes on the court.

Not only has he compiled the worst offensive RPM (-4.65) of any NBA point guard, but Mudiay's total RPM (-6.15) value exceeds that of only one other player this year: Jahlil Okafor.


Not so super: Mario Hezonja

When the Orlando Magic tabbed Hezonja with the fifth pick of the 2015 draft, they presumably had a player who could immediately strengthen their wing rotation. After all, the 6-foot-8 Croatian had just logged two seasons of solid Euroleague play, and he was a year older than one-and-done prospects like D'Angelo Russell.

But Hezonja hasn't looked much like "Super Mario" in the early going.

While Magic coach Scott Skiles has dutifully played him in 34 of 37 games thus far, Hezonja's on-court impact has been a big net negative. In fact, his offensive RPM (-1.56) and defensive RPM (-2.01) both suggest a level of play below that of the mythical "replacement player."

Offensively, Hezonja has been a turnover machine, giving up the ball on 21.1 percent of all the possessions he has used (one of the highest turnover rates in the league). And although his 3-point shooting stroke is just as sweet as advertised -- he has converted on 41.1 percent from 3-point range -- he has struggled to find other ways to contribute.

Touted as an elite dunker out of FC Barcelona, Super Mario has thrown it down only four times all season. He has also shown a lackluster ability to get to the line, and he's not doing much to set up his teammates, either.

In fairness, though, Hezonja has been averaging only 13 minutes per game for Orlando -- and has even been asked to play out of position on occasion as a point guard off the bench -- so it's perhaps no surprise that he's still finding his way.


Slumping sophomores

No defense: Andrew Wiggins

After winning Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins is already regarded as a star by fans and some NBA personnel, despite some early concerns in the analytics community. Count us among the few holdouts not yet ready to elevate Wiggins to the NBA pantheon.

For starters, many of his key stats have actually dropped from his rookie campaign.

Wiggins is shooting only 43.7 percent from the floor this season and has clicked on just 24.7 percent of shots from 3-point range (down from 31.0 percent a year ago).

Rebounds? Also down. Assists? Down. Blocks? Down. True shooting percentage? You get the idea.

In fact, the Wolves have actually played better this season -- with a better net efficiency -- without Wiggins on the court. And his RPM impact, currently -4.32, ranks a mere 84th among 88 NBA 2-guards.

What's worse, his defense was supposed to be a strong suit, but for the second straight year, it has been a weakness. In defensive RPM, he's actually next-to-last in the league among shooting guards, at -3.76.

Because he's just 20 years old, Wiggins still has plenty of time to figure it out. But if a player's greatness hinges on his ability to make his team more effective on the court, Wiggins has yet to arrive.


One-trick Laker: Julius Randle

Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.

Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.

The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.


Another big problem in Philly: Nerlens Noel

Rivaling Okafor in negative plus-minus impact is Noel, Jahlil's fellow Philadelphia big man. In his sophomore season (after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury), Noel has actually seen a falloff on multiple fronts.

While the Philly center demonstrated elite defensive proficiency last year -- and averaged over two blocks and two steals per 36 minutes of play -- he has been less effective this season, perhaps due to small injuries and the challenges of playing next to Okafor.

In a particularly telling development, Noel's block rate has fallen off about 40 percent, and his defensive RPM impact is down nearly two points per 100 possessions.

Of course, defense isn't Noel's biggest problem. His offensive RPM of -5.45 is the absolute worst among all NBA big men. In fact, the 76ers score only 88 points per 100 possessions when Noel is on the court, the lowest offensive rating on record for a player with at least 700 on-court minutes.


Yet another subpar Sixer: Nik Stauskas

It may be unseemly at this point to add another young Philadelphia player to our "All-Disappointment Team." But given the Sixers' abysmal 4-34 showing this season, it's perhaps no surprise that they dominate the category.

Stauskas, the 8th pick in the 2014 draft, was acquired from the Sacramento Kings last summer in a trade that most observers felt the 76ers won, in part because Philly also acquired future draft rights in multiple years.

But if the Sixers were counting on Stauskas, the former lottery pick hasn't exactly delivered in Philly. He has actually played worse in many ways than he did in his erratic rookie outing with the Kings last year -- and that's saying something.

Known for his potential as a shooter and passer, he's converting only 35.3 percent of FG attempts and racking up only 1.7 assists in 23 minutes per game.

The advanced stats are even more unflattering: 46.5 true shooting percentage (ranked 59th of 66 NBA shooting guards), 16.7 usage rate (far below league average), -3.15 offensive RPM and -2.52 defensive RPM.

Stauskas' -5.67 total RPM is easily the worst of any non-rookie this season. In fact, Philly would probably be on track for a few more wins this season if they had never added Stauskas to their roster.

Of course, for a team that has been more interested in trying out young talent than winning games, at least Stauskas' struggles have a silver lining -- increasing Philadelphia's odds in the upcoming Ben Simmons lottery (aka, the 2016 NBA draft).

I actually had Mudiay as the ROY this year based on the premise that he's be in the best situation to put up empty numbers on a very weak squad like Wiggins did last year and that Russell had too much bust potential, Okafor had screaming defensive deficiencies and the others would take more time to develop as bigs. I do agree with this list though.

I suspect Okafor will be fine and will end up as a Al Jefferson clone, Noel will be better somewhere else, but not elite given his offensive woes, and Wiggins will eventually work things out, but not be a transcendent player. Stauskas looks like a bust, Randle will be OK, but not special (and I'd take Smart over him based on what I've seen of Randle). Haven't seen Mario or Mudiay to have an opinion long-term, but the stats speak for themselves so far short-term,

[obnoxiousmime]

Wiggins seems like a rich man's version of Jeff Green. A very very wealthy version but Green nonetheless. OK, maybe that's a little harsh.

I don't think Randle was ever going to be a great interior defender since he's a tad short for the role. On the plus side, his rebounding has translated but I don't think he can score inside as consistently against bigger NBA defenders. He needs to continue working on his shot. A more athletic, less fat Sullinger?

I've been disappointed with Mario, I thought he was going to be good. Perhaps he's a buy-low candidate though, since the Magic don't have enough minutes to go around. They are so stocked with young talent in Gordon, Fournier, Vucevic, Payton, Harris, and Oladipo.
 
It's kind of funny that when Payton is healthy and Oladipo comes off the bench, their bench squad is like the "unfulfilled promise team": Napier, Oladipo, Hezonga, Gordon, Nicholson.

[Rondo9]

I don't think Randle was ever going to be a great interior defender since he's a tad short for the role. On the plus side, his rebounding has translated but I don't think he can score inside as consistently against bigger NBA defenders. He needs to continue working on his shot. A more athletic, less fat Sullinger?

More like Tristan Thompson without the defense.

[KeepRondo]

I wouldn't put much stock in what the ESPN geek squad thinks.

It's way too early to expect these guys to have the mental game down. They are going against veterans who have perfected their craft. So as long as they show they have some game, which most of these guys have, then I wouldn't be so concerned like they seem to be.

[jpotter33]

I don't think Randle was ever going to be a great interior defender since he's a tad short for the role. On the plus side, his rebounding has translated but I don't think he can score inside as consistently against bigger NBA defenders. He needs to continue working on his shot. A more athletic, less fat Sullinger?

More like Tristan Thompson without the defense.

I've watched Randle a lot lately, and he is extremely dependent upon strength and just bulling through people. On most of his drives and offensive plays he looks like a bull in a China shop. Not a very smart or composed player, either.

[jambr380]

I guess it's always great to hear about other teams' "failures," but it does look like Ilardi and Engelmann picked and chose who they wanted to be their disappointments.

Obviously Stauskas deserves to be on there, but where are Embiid, Parker, Exum, and Vonleh from last year? We at CB often talk up Smart and downplay Randle, but he has clearly been more effective than those four...and gimme a break on Wiggins - he is basically the only good player from the 2015 draft.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

[Snakehead]

I knew, and had seen, the knocks on Okafor but those numbers are BRUTAL.

I wouldn't put much stock in what the ESPN geek squad thinks.

Hey everyone it's Charles Barkley.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

The point of the piece is to talk why some young players are disappointing through analytics.  That's all they are trying to do.  Not sure why some are so defensive or not seeing that. 

That stuff is useful.  You can argue with it in different ways and that's fine (I certainly am not an analytics as gospel guy) but the numbers are the numbers.  It'll be interesting to look at them as the years go on.

[MBunge]

Of all those guys, the only one I'd be really worried about is Okafor.  He's so good offensively that teams could let him get away with sucking on defense for years before he's held accountable.

Mike

[celticsclay]

I mean this is why i don't get the super positive Okafor people. 15 years ago you see a guy that can score and rebound and you think why is he team always so bad? We could sometimes see the opposing player he was guarding scoring a lot, but it was really hard to dissect team defense. Well now we have the tools to understand why but people still do not wish to acknowledge/use them.

[Rondo9]

Of all those guys, the only one I'd be really worried about is Okafor.  He's so good offensively that teams could let him get away with sucking on defense for years before he's held accountable.

Mike

Need to surround him with defensive minded players.

[jambr380]

I knew, and had seen, the knocks on Okafor but those numbers are BRUTAL.

I wouldn't put much stock in what the ESPN geek squad thinks.

Hey everyone it's Charles Barkley.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

The point of the piece is to talk why some young players are disappointing through analytics.  That's all they are trying to do.  Not sure why some are so defensive or not seeing that. 

That stuff is useful.  You can argue with it in different ways and that's fine (I certainly am not an analytics as gospel guy) but the numbers are the numbers.  It'll be interesting to look at them as the years go on.

I knew somebody was going to respond to my comment thinking I hated analytics; actually, I think they are quite useful. I just don't particularly love the article. Most of the guys on the list are on very poor teams and are probably being asked to do too much too soon. I wouldn't necessarily call these individuals disappointing as they are actually putting up stats. They are just going to need to find a way to put up stats more efficiently, while also learning to play better team defense - and that often comes with time.

[colincb]

I guess it's always great to hear about other teams' "failures," but it does look like Ilardi and Engelmann picked and chose who they wanted to be their disappointments.

Obviously Stauskas deserves to be on there, but where are Embiid, Parker, Exum, and Vonleh from last year? We at CB often talk up Smart and downplay Randle, but he has clearly been more effective than those four...and gimme a break on Wiggins - he is basically the only good player from the 2015 draft.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

Not sure Vonleh was that highly thought of. Embiid, Exum, and Parker have had major problems with injuries more so than demonstrated lack of performance. Embiid hasn't played. Exum did play a full rookie season though before going down with an ACL this year, and his numbers were better than Mudiay's. Parker lost much of his rookie year. His numbers are mediocre, but not disastrous like the players cited in the article.

[KeepRondo]

I knew, and had seen, the knocks on Okafor but those numbers are BRUTAL.

I wouldn't put much stock in what the ESPN geek squad thinks.

Hey everyone it's Charles Barkley.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

The point of the piece is to talk why some young players are disappointing through analytics.  That's all they are trying to do.  Not sure why some are so defensive or not seeing that. 

That stuff is useful.  You can argue with it in different ways and that's fine (I certainly am not an analytics as gospel guy) but the numbers are the numbers.  It'll be interesting to look at them as the years go on.

When I was young and in college, my first major of choice was Math. This was before switching to computer science. Also close to 20 years ago. I feel pretty comfortable that I understand numbers, probability, and analytics better than most posters on here. The one thing I strongly disagree on is the accuracy of NBA analytics. There are just way too many variables in play. I could probably punch holes in most stats being used on these boards.

Also, these ESPN guys are actually expecting Okafor to have mastered how to maximize his game already? And at the same time, do it on a broken down team where he's not always put in the best situation to succeed.

Crazy expectations to say he has had a disappointing season.

Can say the same for Wiggins. Dude is still perfecting his craft. In another year or two, I would expect to see him figuring out how to get the most out of his game to help his team.

Not every Rookie or sophomore is going to have the mental game like Smart. These guys are young. On the other end of the spectrum, look at Young and Rozier. Okafor, Noel, Wiggins etc are just fine with where they are so far.

[jambr380]

I guess it's always great to hear about other teams' "failures," but it does look like Ilardi and Engelmann picked and chose who they wanted to be their disappointments.

Obviously Stauskas deserves to be on there, but where are Embiid, Parker, Exum, and Vonleh from last year? We at CB often talk up Smart and downplay Randle, but he has clearly been more effective than those four...and gimme a break on Wiggins - he is basically the only good player from the 2015 draft.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

Not sure Vonleh was that highly thought of. Embiid, Exum, and Parker have had major problems with injuries more so than demonstrated lack of performance. Embiid hasn't played. Exum did play a full rookie season though before going down with an ACL this year, and his numbers were better than Mudiay's. Parker lost much of his rookie year. His numbers are mediocre, but not disastrous like the players cited in the article.

If the point of the piece is to pick out players with enough of a sample size to dissect, then I guess I understand, but the other guys have been borderline useless so far. It's likely Exum goes on to have a decent career and Parker seemed to be effective last year, but these guys just simply haven't performed and have been more 'disappointing' than these guys (sans Stauskas).

As for Vonleh, there were many who thought we might he would go as high as 5th and some were surprised we didn't take him. I think the expectations for him were pretty high as he was included in a 'can't miss' top 8 (even though he eventually went 9th).

[Snakehead]

When I was young and in college, my first major of choice was Math. This was before switching to computer science. Also close to 20 years ago. I feel pretty comfortable that I understand numbers, probability, and analytics better than most posters on here. The one thing I strongly disagree on is the accuracy of NBA analytics. There are just way too many variables in play. I could probably punch holes in most stats being used on these boards.

Also, these ESPN guys are actually expecting Okafor to have mastered how to maximize his game already? And at the same time, do it on a broken down team where he's not always put in the best situation to succeed.

Crazy expectations to say he has had a disappointing season.

Can say the same for Wiggins. Dude is still perfecting his craft. In another year or two, I would expect to see him figuring out how to get the most out of his game to help his team.

Not every Rookie or sophomore is going to have the mental game like Smart. These guys are young. On the other end of the spectrum, look at Young and Rozier. Okafor, Noel, Wiggins etc are just fine with where they are so far.

I feel there are a lot of variables in play as well but the numbers are still useful.  I mean for example you could have a guard playing with back up bigs who are awful defenders for most of his minutes and his defensive numbers look worse than they would with better help defenders that the starters might play with.

When the team is so much better without Okafor on the floor and he has the worst RPM in the league hey that might mean something though. 

These are numbers that should be revisited come end of the year time but they are worth looking at.  If Wiggins defensive numbers aren't there after two seasons you have to wonder if they ever will be.  Something to look at for sure.  If you just took word on the street or common conception you'd probably hear about how big of a defensive player he can be.

And again, the piece isn't saying "Cut these guys!".  It's saying they've been disappointing.  And they have via these stats.

I still really like Wiggins.  I also still really like Noel for example (in a role where he is not being asked to do too much).