ESPN's Most Disappointing Rookies and Sophomores

[LarBrd33]

Why did you cut out the section about Marcus smart ?

[Ilikesports17]

Why did you cut out the section about Marcus smart ?

Cus it didn't exist

[Who]

I think Wiggins needs to move to SF.

Minnesota making it hard on him pairing Wiggins next to Rubio (can't shoot) and Tayshaun Prince (limited scorer / shooter) on the perimeter. I think Minnesota's lineups are more to blame for those RPM numbers than Wiggins' own performance levels.

[Rondo9]

I think Wiggins needs to move to SF.

Minnesota making it hard on him pairing Wiggins next to Rubio (can't shoot) and Tayshaun Prince (limited scorer / shooter) on the perimeter. I think Minnesota's lineups are more to blame for those RPM numbers than Wiggins' own performance levels.

I think Lavine should start.

[Who]

To be disappointing don't you have to fail to live up to expectations.  I mean unless these guys thought someone like Okafor was a good defender, I'm not sure how he can be disappointing because he is actually living up to his offensive promise.

I agree -- I think Okafor is playing to expectations. The problem has been people's inaccurate evaluations of Okafor's game coming out of college rather than himself.

But as an aside, on Okafor's offense

47.1% FG%
50.6% TS%
Twice as many turnovers as assists

The offense hasn't been great either. Volume scorer. Lacks efficiency.

Philly's offense regularly has better movement when J.Okafor is on the bench.

[Who]

One-trick Laker: Julius Randle

Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.

Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.

The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.

I don't think they should be using blocks to evaluate Randle's defense.

He has never projected as a shot-blocking PF at the NBA level.

His value defensively will come as a (in terms of potential) tough man-to-man defender due to his lateral quickness, agility and strength. His overall mobility and quickness should also help him become an active and capable team defender away from the basket. Much like a Paul Millsap. That is the type of defender Randle projects to be. Not a shot-blocker.

It's like they are going out of their way to look for a stick to smack Randle over the head with. I don't think they need to try that hard to find ways to criticize him. It's not like he is the finished product. He has lots of holes in his game.

[Rondo9]

One-trick Laker: Julius Randle

Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.

Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.

The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.

I don't think they should be using blocks to evaluate Randle's defense.

He has never projected as a shot-blocking PF at the NBA level.

His value defensively will come as a (in terms of potential) tough man-to-man defender due to his lateral quickness, agility and strength. His overall mobility and quickness should also help him become an active and capable team defender away from the basket. Much like a Paul Millsap. That is the type of defender Randle projects to be. Not a shot-blocker.

It's like they are going out of their way to look for a stick to smack Randle over the head with. I don't think they need to try that hard to find ways to criticize him. It's not like he is the finished product. He has lots of holes in his game.

His man to man and help defense is atrocious.

[Who]

Another big problem in Philly: Nerlens Noel

Rivaling Okafor in negative plus-minus impact is Noel, Jahlil's fellow Philadelphia big man. In his sophomore season (after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury), Noel has actually seen a falloff on multiple fronts.

While the Philly center demonstrated elite defensive proficiency last year -- and averaged over two blocks and two steals per 36 minutes of play -- he has been less effective this season, perhaps due to small injuries and the challenges of playing next to Okafor.

In a particularly telling development, Noel's block rate has fallen off about 40 percent, and his defensive RPM impact is down nearly two points per 100 possessions.

Of course, defense isn't Noel's biggest problem. His offensive RPM of -5.45 is the absolute worst among all NBA big men. In fact, the 76ers score only 88 points per 100 possessions when Noel is on the court, the lowest offensive rating on record for a player with at least 700 on-court minutes.

The numbers don't mean Noel has regressed.

They mean that Noel is not a power forward ... and that should have been clear to everyone from Day One. Noel is a center.

Why would anyone expect Noel to block as many shots when he goes from spending most of his time in the paint to spending most of his time 15+ feet from the basket? Why would anyone expect him to have the same defensive impact when he is not being put in a position to fully utilize his defensive talents? Why would anyone not expect his defensive stats to take a hit from playing alongside the worst defensive in the league in J.Okafor?

Noel was a limited center offensively. Why would they think he would be any better playing at a more skilled position at power forward? Where every player should have at least 15-18 foot jump shot and many more nowadays have 3 point range? And then to make things even worse, they pair a limited offensive center with a low post-only center in J.Okafor ... two players who only serve to exacerbate each other weaknesses on offense.

The problem isn't the numbers. The problem is the dumb-ass analysis by these ESPN guys of what those numbers actually mean.

[Who]

One-trick Laker: Julius Randle

Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.

Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.

The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.

I don't think they should be using blocks to evaluate Randle's defense.

He has never projected as a shot-blocking PF at the NBA level.

His value defensively will come as a (in terms of potential) tough man-to-man defender due to his lateral quickness, agility and strength. His overall mobility and quickness should also help him become an active and capable team defender away from the basket. Much like a Paul Millsap. That is the type of defender Randle projects to be. Not a shot-blocker.

It's like they are going out of their way to look for a stick to smack Randle over the head with. I don't think they need to try that hard to find ways to criticize him. It's not like he is the finished product. He has lots of holes in his game.

His man to man and help defense is atrocious.

Oh, I agree. I agree completely.

I said that is where his defensive potential lies. In those areas.

Not shot-blocking. Focusing on shot-blocking for a guy like Randle is pointless.

Criticizing where his man-to-man defense and help defense is currently (the season so far) is on point. Fair game. Shot-blocking is off point ... because he is not that type of player.

And there was plenty of room to criticize Randle for his lackluster defense (his man-to-man and help defense) without having to go off and pick on an area (shot-blocking) that he should never have been expected to excel well in in the first place. That annoyed me. They were going out of their way to find numbers to smack him over the head with.

[wayupnorth]

Why did you cut out the section about Marcus smart ?

Seriously, what enjoyment do you get out of rooting for the C's?

All you do is dog on the Celtics, while cheering on our division rivals.

You give the benefit of the doubt to any and every player in the league, yet assume the worst case scenario for every Celtic.

It gets extremely old, and it sucks because you clearly have solid insight about the game of basketball, and could add a lot to this board. Instead you choose to throw away any ethos you may have, in an attempt to appear impartial...


It is often very grating to read what you post.

[PhoSita]

Here's a test for you or anyone else: what does Okafor do well?

20.2 points per 36 minutes on >50% true shooting.  That's actually quite impressive for a non-shooting big man on a team with a non-existent supporting cast, horrible floor spacing, and the worst point guard play in the league.

He's also second in the league in total post-up attempts and he's got an effective field goal percentage of 46.4% on those attempts, which is about the same as Brook Lopez.  He's scoring about the same number of points per attempt as Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol.

For a rookie, that's impressive.

[colincb]

Another big problem in Philly: Nerlens Noel

Rivaling Okafor in negative plus-minus impact is Noel, Jahlil's fellow Philadelphia big man. In his sophomore season (after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury), Noel has actually seen a falloff on multiple fronts.

While the Philly center demonstrated elite defensive proficiency last year -- and averaged over two blocks and two steals per 36 minutes of play -- he has been less effective this season, perhaps due to small injuries and the challenges of playing next to Okafor.

In a particularly telling development, Noel's block rate has fallen off about 40 percent, and his defensive RPM impact is down nearly two points per 100 possessions.

Of course, defense isn't Noel's biggest problem. His offensive RPM of -5.45 is the absolute worst among all NBA big men. In fact, the 76ers score only 88 points per 100 possessions when Noel is on the court, the lowest offensive rating on record for a player with at least 700 on-court minutes.

The numbers don't mean Noel has regressed.

They mean that Noel is not a power forward ... and that should have been clear to everyone from Day One. Noel is a center.

Why would anyone expect Noel to block as many shots when he goes from spending most of his time in the paint to spending most of his time 15+ feet from the basket? Why would anyone expect him to have the same defensive impact when he is not being put in a position to fully utilize his defensive talents? Why would anyone not expect his defensive stats to take a hit from playing alongside the worst defensive in the league in J.Okafor?

Noel was a limited center offensively. Why would they think he would be any better playing at a more skilled position at power forward? Where every player should have at least 15-18 foot jump shot and many more nowadays have 3 point range? And then to make things even worse, they pair a limited offensive center with a low post-only center in J.Okafor ... two players who only serve to exacerbate each other weaknesses on offense.

The problem isn't the numbers. The problem is the dumb-ass analysis by these ESPN guys of what those numbers actually mean.

The numbers have regressed though. You're right that it's a result of the faulty PROCESS, but that's not the pundits problem. it's the team's half-assed idea to draft another center when they had one who conceivably could have been competent given a chance. How does anyone look at Noel coming off his first season and think he's going to be a better player at PF. It was the 76ers who devalued Noe's trade value.

[Moranis]

I would expect most teams who give that many touches to a rookie, would probably have better stats when he's not in the game. Okafor is being given the opportunity to fast track his growth as an NBA player. Way too early to look at team stats, regarding his impact.

The logic you're using doesn't work for defense that well.

On offense I could agree.

Not that he can't get better but right now he's real, real bad.

I don't think you can say a guy who has shown great promise on the offensive end is a disappointment because he hasn't figured out how to play good NBA defense as a rookie.

especially when no one thought he was going to be a good defender.  I mean that is like saying Smart was a disappointment as a rookie because he was terrible on offense.  Of course he was terrible on offense, but everyone knew he would be.

A guy like Stauskas, however, is a disappointment given he has shot terribly and shooting was supposed to be his strength (and his college stats support that belief).  He belongs on the lsit for that reason, Okafor does not (he is pretty much the player everyone thought he would be).

I don't think Okafor's the player i thought he would be.

Here's a test for you or anyone else: what does Okafor do well?

He is averaging 17 points and 7.5 boards.  That doesn't happen that often for a rookie.  In fact the last rookie to do that was Blake Griffin (though he was a 2nd year rookie).  Blake wasn't much better from the field either and was a poor defender (and played on a better team with better talent).

[chilidawg]

I knew, and had seen, the knocks on Okafor but those numbers are BRUTAL.

I wouldn't put much stock in what the ESPN geek squad thinks.

Hey everyone it's Charles Barkley.

Glad none of our guys on are on the list, but using analytics for everything doesn't always tell the whole story.

The point of the piece is to talk why some young players are disappointing through analytics.  That's all they are trying to do.  Not sure why some are so defensive or not seeing that. 

That stuff is useful.  You can argue with it in different ways and that's fine (I certainly am not an analytics as gospel guy) but the numbers are the numbers.  It'll be interesting to look at them as the years go on.

When I was young and in college, my first major of choice was Math. This was before switching to computer science. Also close to 20 years ago. I feel pretty comfortable that I understand numbers, probability, and analytics better than most posters on here. The one thing I strongly disagree on is the accuracy of NBA analytics. There are just way too many variables in play. I could probably punch holes in most stats being used on these boards.

Also, these ESPN guys are actually expecting Okafor to have mastered how to maximize his game already? And at the same time, do it on a broken down team where he's not always put in the best situation to succeed.

Crazy expectations to say he has had a disappointing season.

Can say the same for Wiggins. Dude is still perfecting his craft. In another year or two, I would expect to see him figuring out how to get the most out of his game to help his team.

Not every Rookie or sophomore is going to have the mental game like Smart. These guys are young. On the other end of the spectrum, look at Young and Rozier. Okafor, Noel, Wiggins etc are just fine with where they are so far.

If you're going to dismiss the stats you might want to actually punch holes in them, rather than just claim that you could. 

I'm always curious about these stats, and RPM so far seems to be the most effective at capturing total impact on the game while adjusting for the quality of teammates and opponents. How about telling us exactly why this stat isn't effective.

[celticsclay]

Do people think that the writers at ESPN (all of them) have an ax to grind with okafor or something? This now makes like 5 different writers there that have ranked him as disappointing this season right? Why do people keep grading him later than the vocal minority on this board? I can't recall another time we felt like people were using an agenda to slam a rookie with statistics before.