Celtics May be forced to Tank this year.

[nickagneta]

Eric Hinkie

Is that Sam Hinkie's evil twin?

LOL. Where did I get Eric from

[Quetzalcoatl]

Eric Hinkie

Is that Sam Hinkie's evil twin?

I think you mean good twin

[Jon]

Jeez. Talk about over reactions. Marcus Smart plays last night and they're 2-2 and no one is panicking.

[TheFlex]

Thabo Sefolosha (a little bit of offense, like Adams) and Roberson (no offense) have also earned starting consideration over better players (Harden, Reggie Jackson) for "defensive purposes" like Adams, on the Thunder as well. I don't value that accolade as highly as it generally would be.

Where's the evidence that the front offices that rely on advanced stats are in the minority?

I disagree with your implication that Steven Adams has been included in the starting lineup simply for "defensive purposes." 

The association by reference with Thabo and Roberson is misleading.  Adams is much less of an offensive liability than those guys.  Indeed, he provides a valuable complement to Serge Ibaka's skillset.  That he isn't a total sieve like Enes Kanter doesn't mean he's in the starting lineup solely for his defensive ability.


Suggesting that GMs around the league place some emphasis on the fact that a player has carved out a significant, starting role on a good team, or the fact that a player has failed to do so on a bad-to-mediocre team lacking in talent, does not require the premise that GMs do not also take analytics into account.  The point is simply that the existence of analytics, indicating that a player has value that may not be immediately apparent from the box score, is not by itself enough for talent evaluators around the league to value a player especially highly.

In short, I think Kelly Olynyk probably has more value around the league than most third string PF/Cs getting inconsistent minutes on a borderline playoff team, but that shouldn't be confused with him having significant trade value.  He needs to actually put together at least a couple of months of productive basketball while the team actually wins games before we can expect him to hold a lot of value in trade discussions. 

The only stretch I can think of where Kelly was regularly earning minutes and putting up points was in the last month or so of 2014, when the team was just playing out the string and getting beaten by double digits more often than not.

I don't think it's misleading at all. Adams doesn't shoot anything beyond 10 feet at all, and has a below average PER in his first 3 seasons. He's very efficient in that range, but he's not a creator by any means, certainly devoid of the offensive repertoire Kanter has. His career PER is a little bit better than what Thabo's was when he was starting over James Harden, but the point is that starting on the Thunder, ironically, doesn't necessarily mean that the starter is better than a bench player on a worse team or even his own replacement. Is Roberson better than Shabazz Muhammad in a general sense? Who has more value? It's an extreme example, sure, just like comparing the talent differentials between Thabo/Harden and Adams/Kanter. But the ultimate point is if your primary evidence for suggesting that Adams is superior to Olynyk is Adams starts for a good team and Olynyk comes off the bench for an OK one, then you haven't convinced me. Especially if in the same breath you say Adams does "all the things you need your basic role playing center to do" and later on concede that advanced stats, at the absolute least, suggest Adams and Olynyk are closer than you think.

The thing is Adams is playing the most minutes at center on OKC.  This isn't a situation where he starts but only plays here and there and cedes minutes to his backup (like say Thabo and Roberson who both consistently play less than the more gifted offensive player behind them).  Adams is a real part of the rotation and gets crunch time minutes (not always sometime Kanter is the better play based on matchups and situation).  Adams is a 22 year old true center.  Those type of players take time to develop, and Adams has shown growth.  He doesn't shoot outside of 10 feet because he shoots 64% from the field and they need him in the interior to supplement Ibaka and Durant on the wing (Adams actually has a pretty smooth stroke and has a solid mid-range jump shot). 

Adams has significantly more value than Olynyk around the league.  It isn't close.

Sure, it's a pretty obvious decision for a coach to insert a defensively superior player who can do "basic things" such as rebound and put the ball back up like Adams in the crunch time lineup when you have 2 MVP candidates and a borderline All-Star who will almost surely dictate any meaningful action offensively. I would guess, especially after what Kanter showed last year as OKC's starter, most teams without that luxury would likely go with Kanter down the stretch.

Saying he doesn't shoot beyond 10 feet because he doesn't need to isn't totally illogical, but not really grounded in fact. "Smooth stroke" convinces me of nothing without evidence. In the last two years Adams has taken 22 shots from beyond 10 feet. He's made 0 of them.

Adams fits terrifically next to two offensive superstars and MVP candidates. Most teams on the trade market prefer guys who can create offense to guys who offer above average defense and hold their own offensively. I'd wager Olynyk is closer to Adams in leaguewide value. OKC doesn't reflect the needs and preferences of the league's average.

[csfansince60s]

Once LeBron starts looking like Kobe ...then we ll ramp up.

That may not be for a VERY long time. James drinks from that same Fountain of Youth cup that David Ortiz drinks from.

[DarkAzcura]

We have experienced the equivalent of what is about 3 quarters of one NFL game. That's how early on we are in the season.

[PhoSita]

But the ultimate point is if your primary evidence for suggesting that Adams is superior to Olynyk is Adams starts for a good team and Olynyk comes off the bench for an OK one, then you haven't convinced me. Especially if in the same breath you say Adams does "all the things you need your basic role playing center to do" and later on concede that advanced stats, at the absolute least, suggest Adams and Olynyk are closer than you think.

The ultimate point is that I think Steven Adams has demonstrated you can plug him into a good lineup and he can give you quality minutes and decent production at the center position, not unlike Timofey Mozgov (though I think Mozgov is better).  There's a dearth of players who can do that, especially ones with the physical attributes to defend bigger guys inside and also move around on the perimeter and in the pick and roll. 

Kelly Olynyk has not demonstrated that kind of fungible value.  Not yet.  But like you say, the advanced stats suggest the two are "closer than you think," i.e. KO has more value than your average third stringer on a mediocre team, like I already said.

Steven Adams is limited offensively, but he does what he does quite well.  That's different than somebody like Thabo or Roberson, or a guy like Omer Asik or Festus Ezeli -- guys who at best fill their offensive role just well enough to not to kill their teams on that end of the floor.

[Hemingway]

yeah KO is barely an NBA player at this point. but because he has guard skills and in 7 feet tall and has shown some flashes of being a great scorer he is worth investing some time into. He basically has to prov he is worth another contract before his current one is up.

[Celtics18]

yeah KO is barely an NBA player at this point. but because he has guard skills and in 7 feet tall and has shown some flashes of being a great scorer he is worth investing some time into. He basically has to prov he is worth another contract before his current one is up.

He's had two consecutive awful shooting nights in a row.  Right now, his confidence is down, but to say that he's "barely an NBA player at this point" is complete hyperbole. 

Over his first two seasons, he's actually proven to be a very serviceable NBA player.  And, as you say, unlike someone like Steven Adams, who pretty much is what he is, Kelly still has room to grow. 

[SHAQATTACK]

yeah KO is barely an NBA player at this point. but because he has guard skills and in 7 feet tall and has shown some flashes of being a great scorer he is worth investing some time into. He basically has to prov he is worth another contract before his current one is up.

He's had two consecutive awful shooting nights in a row.  Right now, his confidence is down, but to say that he's "barely an NBA player at this point" is complete hyperbole. 

Over his first two seasons, he's actually proven to be a very serviceable NBA player.  And, as you say, unlike someone like Steven Adams, who pretty much is what he is, Kelly still has room to grow.

p
Kelly looks good In Summer league or Euro or Canadian ball....

But he really looks poor more times than good when faced with veteran top NBA athletes .,....

He is lacking , fire in his belly to achieve ,   Too meek and mild,  non aggressive in an aggressive league just won't translate .   Still wants to play outside the paint and be a 6 ft point guard.

Kelly would be a STAR in Europe or China ......25 15 a night...easy ...top level player

But in the NBA .....he can't play well enough to keep himself out on the court ..SMH .....he runs out of talent at the NBA level

[Moranis]

yeah KO is barely an NBA player at this point. but because he has guard skills and in 7 feet tall and has shown some flashes of being a great scorer he is worth investing some time into. He basically has to prov he is worth another contract before his current one is up.

He's had two consecutive awful shooting nights in a row.  Right now, his confidence is down, but to say that he's "barely an NBA player at this point" is complete hyperbole. 

Over his first two seasons, he's actually proven to be a very serviceable NBA player.  And, as you say, unlike someone like Steven Adams, who pretty much is what he is, Kelly still has room to grow.

Um, Olynyk is 2 years older than Adams and hasn't really improved since he entered the league (rebounding, shooting, etc. have actually gotten worse).  Adams on the other hand has steadily improved his shooting and showed a pretty marked improvement in his rates from year 1 to 2 (he has admittedly taken a bit of a step back with the health of OKC this year in his rates, but has still greatly improved his shooting).  And yet Olynyk is the one with room to improve and Adams is the one that has no room.  Whatever you are smoking please pass it this way.

[hpantazo]

yeah KO is barely an NBA player at this point. but because he has guard skills and in 7 feet tall and has shown some flashes of being a great scorer he is worth investing some time into. He basically has to prov he is worth another contract before his current one is up.

He's had two consecutive awful shooting nights in a row.  Right now, his confidence is down, but to say that he's "barely an NBA player at this point" is complete hyperbole. 

Over his first two seasons, he's actually proven to be a very serviceable NBA player.  And, as you say, unlike someone like Steven Adams, who pretty much is what he is, Kelly still has room to grow.

p
Kelly looks good In Summer league or Euro or Canadian ball....

But he really looks poor more times than good when faced with veteran top NBA athletes .,....

He is lacking , fire in his belly to achieve ,   Too meek and mild, non aggressive in an aggressive league just won't translate .   Still wants to play outside the paint and be a 6 ft point guard.

Kelly would be a STAR in Europe or China ......25 15 a night...easy ...top level player

But in the NBA .....he can't play well enough to keep himself out on the court ..SMH .....he runs out of talent at the NBA level

I agree with this. KO has the skills, he is just too timid, and doesn't seem to have the internal drive to compete. I wonder if he would be able to fit in better with some stars around him like Durant and Westbrook though, where the attention totally shifts on them and he can take advantage of open opportunities that pop up in those situations, as he can shoot well, spread the floor, and pass well, a perfect supporting cast player in many ways. He sort of reminds me of Keith Van Horn in the old Nets teams, also timid, he was very good when the attention was on other guys, but he was never going to be a primary or secondary scorer on a good team.

[Jon]

In terms of KO, I think one of the biggest problem we're seeing is these extended rotations (particularly in the front court) that Stevens keeps playing.  I think it's hard to play well if you know you might only get 10-15 mpg--and worse yet--if you miss a couple of shot, you may play even less. 

I really think (regardless of Olynyk) that Stevens needs to pick 4 bigs and give them all 20-28 minutes per game and just stick with it for 10-15 games.  If he wants to reassess then, that's fine.  But let's give some guys some consistency. 

[ahonui06]

This is the East. Anything can happen.

[SHAQATTACK]

LeBron has any issues or any Star like Wall or Rose has a fall...that's the risk of having to depend on one or two guys to carry the team to playoffs or beyond.



The apple cart is upset .  ....so easy in the East