Celtics May be forced to Tank this year.

[TheFlex]

get rid of IT and Turner , let Rozier and Smart be the main ball handlers and the losses will pile up because they are so young . If we were going to tank mid season , this would be the way to go .

Yes, let's be the Philadelphia 76ers, because it worked out so great for them.

Noel and Okafor are looking pretty [dang] good to me .....

I would only do this if we are 5-10 games under 500 in January . Turner will be gone at the end of the season anyway, and Thomas , while a very good bench player , isn't going to be game changing player when we are ready to compete again . He would be a nice piece to have , but would trade him if it means picking up a top 10 pick to add to Brooklyn's top 5 pick .

If we are 5-10 games under 500 in January, I'd be on board with this.  But I wouldn't give Isaiah Thomas away.  I'd need more than a late first for him as he is a difference maker and on a nice contract.

Except we acquired Thomas for a late 1st.  Guys like him don't have much value.

I think a trade like this might work for both teams (in that scenario)

Thomas, Bradley, Olynyk for Adams, Waiters, Augustin, Novak

Boston gets a potential build around center in Adams and a look at Waiters and OKC goes all in for the playoffs, while adding reasonable contract depth to their bench should they re-up KD.

Truly awful trade for Boston.

depends on how much you like Adams and Waiters.

Different skill sets, but I'd guess Olynyk is worth Adams straight up around the league. Bradley is just miles and miles ahead of Waiters value-wise. He's a far better player and only one year older. He is locked up to a great contract while Waiters is entering a financial market that could earn him a greater annual salary. And then finally netting Isaiah Thomas for Augustin and Novak is highway robbery for OKC.

[PhoSita]

Different skill sets, but I'd guess Olynyk is worth Adams straight up around the league.

I highly doubt this.

Adams has shown he can hold down a starting center spot on a good team.  He does all the things you need your basic role playing center to do.  Set picks, rebound, finish inside, keep the ball moving.  He's also pretty quick and athletic, but not small enough to get pushed around easily by bigger guys.


Olynyk has yet to carve out a consistent role, even in a bench capacity, and he's been on a bad-to-mediocre team his whole career so far.

From an advanced stats standpoint, KO seems to do a lot of little things to help a team, but I think GMs around the league would much prefer the guy with the traditional center skillset who has earned the confidence of multiple head coaches as a fixture in the starting lineup of a competitive team.

[PhoSita]

Re: the tanking question, I agree that this team has depth, but I think the team is so lacking in scorers that if you took away Thomas, Bradley, and one of the more productive big men (Sully, Lee, Amir), the team would just have too little firepower to keep up with the majority of teams in the league.

[DesertDweller]

I have a hunch that before game 15,  Ainge is going to do something astounding!!!

[Moranis]

Different skill sets, but I'd guess Olynyk is worth Adams straight up around the league.

I highly doubt this.

Adams has shown he can hold down a starting center spot on a good team.  He does all the things you need your basic role playing center to do.  Set picks, rebound, finish inside, keep the ball moving.  He's also pretty quick and athletic, but not small enough to get pushed around easily by bigger guys.


Olynyk has yet to carve out a consistent role, even in a bench capacity, and he's been on a bad-to-mediocre team his whole career so far.

From an advanced stats standpoint, KO seems to do a lot of little things to help a team, but I think GMs around the league would much prefer the guy with the traditional center skillset who has earned the confidence of multiple head coaches as a fixture in the starting lineup of a competitive team.

thanks TP.  saved me the trouble of responding.

[Csfan1984]

Tanking isn't so bad if you like watching young guys grow. Pierce, Walker, EW, Battie they grew. Why not Smart, Hunter, Young and Mickey. It's when guys peak you deal them like DA did the first time. Hopefully though he keeps his hot streak of winning deals.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Not gonna happen...

We lost to 2 very good teams (Raptors won in OKC last night)...
Could have easily won last night---if Crowder makes his FT's---or if the refs don't Blow 2 Obvious calls.

Once the rotation is figured out, we'll start winning a lot of games.

[TheFlex]

Different skill sets, but I'd guess Olynyk is worth Adams straight up around the league.

I highly doubt this.

Adams has shown he can hold down a starting center spot on a good team.  He does all the things you need your basic role playing center to do.  Set picks, rebound, finish inside, keep the ball moving.  He's also pretty quick and athletic, but not small enough to get pushed around easily by bigger guys.


Olynyk has yet to carve out a consistent role, even in a bench capacity, and he's been on a bad-to-mediocre team his whole career so far.

From an advanced stats standpoint, KO seems to do a lot of little things to help a team, but I think GMs around the league would much prefer the guy with the traditional center skillset who has earned the confidence of multiple head coaches as a fixture in the starting lineup of a competitive team.

Thabo Sefolosha (a little bit of offense, like Adams) and Roberson (no offense) have also earned starting consideration over better players (Harden, Reggie Jackson) for "defensive purposes" like Adams, on the Thunder as well. I don't value that accolade as highly as it generally would be.

Where's the evidence that the front offices that rely on advanced stats are in the minority?

[PhoSita]

Thabo Sefolosha (a little bit of offense, like Adams) and Roberson (no offense) have also earned starting consideration over better players (Harden, Reggie Jackson) for "defensive purposes" like Adams, on the Thunder as well. I don't value that accolade as highly as it generally would be.

Where's the evidence that the front offices that rely on advanced stats are in the minority?

I disagree with your implication that Steven Adams has been included in the starting lineup simply for "defensive purposes." 

The association by reference with Thabo and Roberson is misleading.  Adams is much less of an offensive liability than those guys.  Indeed, he provides a valuable complement to Serge Ibaka's skillset.  That he isn't a total sieve like Enes Kanter doesn't mean he's in the starting lineup solely for his defensive ability.


Suggesting that GMs around the league place some emphasis on the fact that a player has carved out a significant, starting role on a good team, or the fact that a player has failed to do so on a bad-to-mediocre team lacking in talent, does not require the premise that GMs do not also take analytics into account.  The point is simply that the existence of analytics, indicating that a player has value that may not be immediately apparent from the box score, is not by itself enough for talent evaluators around the league to value a player especially highly.

In short, I think Kelly Olynyk probably has more value around the league than most third string PF/Cs getting inconsistent minutes on a borderline playoff team, but that shouldn't be confused with him having significant trade value.  He needs to actually put together at least a couple of months of productive basketball while the team actually wins games before we can expect him to hold a lot of value in trade discussions. 

The only stretch I can think of where Kelly was regularly earning minutes and putting up points was in the last month or so of 2014, when the team was just playing out the string and getting beaten by double digits more often than not.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

From an outsider's view point...

The advantage of having depth isn't going to manifest itself until late in the season. Nobody is tired right now, very few teams are "banged up" right now, everybody still thinks they have a shot so everybody is trying, and the league is still kind of scouting itself in an effort to figure out who has what.

Later in the year I think running out fresh bodies will be a much, much bigger advantage. Plus, the different types of players Boston has (very little redundancy between guys like Lee/Olynyk/Zeller/Sullinger) will make match ups a bigger advantage once Stevens who I think the entire league agrees is a pretty good coach has easy reads on what makes sense against which teams.

In short, wayyyy too early and if this thing isn't going to right itself you'll know in plenty of time for the trade deadline. The only type of trade you could pull off now is a panic deal, because nobody is desperate, the possibly bad locker rooms haven't erupted yet (Sac, LAL, Indy to name a few) and GMs aren't going to offer fair deals with the amount of uncertainty that exists.

This is a decision you make once the teams record in late-January forces your hand. Then you take advantage of stupid and/or desperate teams. Not now.

[snively]

Re: the tanking question, I agree that this team has depth, but I think the team is so lacking in scorers that if you took away Thomas, Bradley, and one of the more productive big men (Sully, Lee, Amir), the team would just have too little firepower to keep up with the majority of teams in the league.

I think only IT would make a difference on that list. AB is the definition of pedestrian offensively and we have such depth of offensive options at the big spots that you can't really make a dent there (Jerebko's a fine stretch 4, KO a stretch 5 and Zeller a capable offensive player to boot).

I think Danny thoroughly sabotaged any latent tanking prospects for this team. Even with an IT trade to rob the offense of its only true scorer, it's hard to see them falling below the 33-36 win range without a complete roster overhaul.

[nickagneta]

Forced to tank? Are a bunch of Celticsblog, Sam Hinkie drones going to take control of the Celtics front office building, pull out their guns and proceed to tell Ainge and Stevens: " You lost 3 of 4 so, now, either tank the season or the Leprechaun gets it!!"and because Danny and Brad love Lucky so much, they will be forced to tank the season to save Lucky?

Is that what you mean by the Celtics being forced to tank?

Or maybe something different?

[PhoSita]

Eric Hinkie

Is that Sam Hinkie's evil twin?

[TheFlex]

Thabo Sefolosha (a little bit of offense, like Adams) and Roberson (no offense) have also earned starting consideration over better players (Harden, Reggie Jackson) for "defensive purposes" like Adams, on the Thunder as well. I don't value that accolade as highly as it generally would be.

Where's the evidence that the front offices that rely on advanced stats are in the minority?

I disagree with your implication that Steven Adams has been included in the starting lineup simply for "defensive purposes." 

The association by reference with Thabo and Roberson is misleading.  Adams is much less of an offensive liability than those guys.  Indeed, he provides a valuable complement to Serge Ibaka's skillset.  That he isn't a total sieve like Enes Kanter doesn't mean he's in the starting lineup solely for his defensive ability.


Suggesting that GMs around the league place some emphasis on the fact that a player has carved out a significant, starting role on a good team, or the fact that a player has failed to do so on a bad-to-mediocre team lacking in talent, does not require the premise that GMs do not also take analytics into account.  The point is simply that the existence of analytics, indicating that a player has value that may not be immediately apparent from the box score, is not by itself enough for talent evaluators around the league to value a player especially highly.

In short, I think Kelly Olynyk probably has more value around the league than most third string PF/Cs getting inconsistent minutes on a borderline playoff team, but that shouldn't be confused with him having significant trade value.  He needs to actually put together at least a couple of months of productive basketball while the team actually wins games before we can expect him to hold a lot of value in trade discussions. 

The only stretch I can think of where Kelly was regularly earning minutes and putting up points was in the last month or so of 2014, when the team was just playing out the string and getting beaten by double digits more often than not.

I don't think it's misleading at all. Adams doesn't shoot anything beyond 10 feet at all, and has a below average PER in his first 3 seasons. He's very efficient in that range, but he's not a creator by any means, certainly devoid of the offensive repertoire Kanter has. His career PER is a little bit better than what Thabo's was when he was starting over James Harden, but the point is that starting on the Thunder, ironically, doesn't necessarily mean that the starter is better than a bench player on a worse team or even his own replacement. Is Roberson better than Shabazz Muhammad in a general sense? Who has more value? It's an extreme example, sure, just like comparing the talent differentials between Thabo/Harden and Adams/Kanter. But the ultimate point is if your primary evidence for suggesting that Adams is superior to Olynyk is Adams starts for a good team and Olynyk comes off the bench for an OK one, then you haven't convinced me. Especially if in the same breath you say Adams does "all the things you need your basic role playing center to do" and later on concede that advanced stats, at the absolute least, suggest Adams and Olynyk are closer than you think.

[Moranis]

Thabo Sefolosha (a little bit of offense, like Adams) and Roberson (no offense) have also earned starting consideration over better players (Harden, Reggie Jackson) for "defensive purposes" like Adams, on the Thunder as well. I don't value that accolade as highly as it generally would be.

Where's the evidence that the front offices that rely on advanced stats are in the minority?

I disagree with your implication that Steven Adams has been included in the starting lineup simply for "defensive purposes." 

The association by reference with Thabo and Roberson is misleading.  Adams is much less of an offensive liability than those guys.  Indeed, he provides a valuable complement to Serge Ibaka's skillset.  That he isn't a total sieve like Enes Kanter doesn't mean he's in the starting lineup solely for his defensive ability.


Suggesting that GMs around the league place some emphasis on the fact that a player has carved out a significant, starting role on a good team, or the fact that a player has failed to do so on a bad-to-mediocre team lacking in talent, does not require the premise that GMs do not also take analytics into account.  The point is simply that the existence of analytics, indicating that a player has value that may not be immediately apparent from the box score, is not by itself enough for talent evaluators around the league to value a player especially highly.

In short, I think Kelly Olynyk probably has more value around the league than most third string PF/Cs getting inconsistent minutes on a borderline playoff team, but that shouldn't be confused with him having significant trade value.  He needs to actually put together at least a couple of months of productive basketball while the team actually wins games before we can expect him to hold a lot of value in trade discussions. 

The only stretch I can think of where Kelly was regularly earning minutes and putting up points was in the last month or so of 2014, when the team was just playing out the string and getting beaten by double digits more often than not.

I don't think it's misleading at all. Adams doesn't shoot anything beyond 10 feet at all, and has a below average PER in his first 3 seasons. He's very efficient in that range, but he's not a creator by any means, certainly devoid of the offensive repertoire Kanter has. His career PER is a little bit better than what Thabo's was when he was starting over James Harden, but the point is that starting on the Thunder, ironically, doesn't necessarily mean that the starter is better than a bench player on a worse team or even his own replacement. Is Roberson better than Shabazz Muhammad in a general sense? Who has more value? It's an extreme example, sure, just like comparing the talent differentials between Thabo/Harden and Adams/Kanter. But the ultimate point is if your primary evidence for suggesting that Adams is superior to Olynyk is Adams starts for a good team and Olynyk comes off the bench for an OK one, then you haven't convinced me. Especially if in the same breath you say Adams does "all the things you need your basic role playing center to do" and later on concede that advanced stats, at the absolute least, suggest Adams and Olynyk are closer than you think.

The thing is Adams is playing the most minutes at center on OKC.  This isn't a situation where he starts but only plays here and there and cedes minutes to his backup (like say Thabo and Roberson who both consistently play less than the more gifted offensive player behind them).  Adams is a real part of the rotation and gets crunch time minutes (not always sometime Kanter is the better play based on matchups and situation).  Adams is a 22 year old true center.  Those type of players take time to develop, and Adams has shown growth.  He doesn't shoot outside of 10 feet because he shoots 64% from the field and they need him in the interior to supplement Ibaka and Durant on the wing (Adams actually has a pretty smooth stroke and has a solid mid-range jump shot). 

Adams has significantly more value than Olynyk around the league.  It isn't close.