The pre-season buzz is a bit hyperbolic for the Celts. I think they'll be a middle of the road team, but placing them ahead of the Wizards and putting them right there in contention with the Raps for the Atlantic Division seems premature.
Deep though they may be, the Celtics still lack top end talent, so I expect them to have their ups and down and finish close to .500.
The Raps may have underwhelmed in the playoffs yet again, but they've still won 48 and 49 games the last two seasons, and they might be better this year. The Wizards have John Wall. I think the Pacers will be right there with the Celts, too, thanks to the return of Paul George.
I sure hope they're right about the Nets. I still think not having any reason to tank makes a difference, especially in the East. Hard to get a bottom 5 record when you have no reason not to try to win as many games as possible. It's not like they have any younger players that need to see the floor. The vets in Brooklyn will get all the floor time they could ever want and then plenty more.
The sudden rise in our projected finish (from fighting for the 8th seed a couple months ago seemingly everywhere to middle of the playoff pack or better seemingly everywhere now) kind of worries me a bit as EvanTime said, but I think it's more in line with what's realistic.
After the carousel of trades ended and the core of our current team (Smart, Crowder, Thomas, Olynyk, Bradley, Zeller, Turner) was in place getting good PT, this team went 24-12 and managed to finish the season one game under .500. After starting the season like a sure fire top half of the lottery team. I really don't think it would be much of a stretch to say that great play continues to some degree this year to the tune of 45-47 or 8 wins. I think it's actually more of a stretch to say the C's don't continue building on last year and barely scrap .500. Were one of the youngest teams in the league.
But also, we improved on a lot of our weaknesses. IMO, our biggest weaknesses last year were interior defense, rebounding and scoring. I think we're learning that Amir is a really valuable player who does a lot of things really well including interior defense. We had a middle of the pack defense last year even though we had pretty bad interior defense. With the addition of Amir, the ability to play one of Johnson/Zeller almost all the time, an improved Kelly Olynyk and Jordan Mickey available in case of injury or ineffectiveness we could certainly field a top 10 defense.
As far as rebounding goes, Sully was really our only plus rebounder on the team and considering his physical limitations, we got eaten alive on the boards far too often last year. Now with Amir and David Lee, who are both plus rebounders (and Mickey on reserve) we can have one or two plus rebounders out on the floor nearly all the time. Lee also brings a scoring/playmaking ability to the starters this year that will really help the offense. Running some plays through him in the high post can help ease Smart into the lead ball handling role and he can provide a go-to scoring option when you need a bucket. Bradley will be able to be more efficient in his reduced role, Smart will continue to improve, so will Crowder and Zeller to a degree. Plus with improvement from Olynyk off the bench and the IT/Amir P&R combo our bench is going to be more devastating than ever. We've really improved in areas that were our biggest weaknesses last year.
When you combine all that with having Stevens, one of the brightest young minds in the league and a team culture that's all about effort, tenacity and bringing it every night, I think it's more likely we win 47-49 games for the 5th or 6th seed than go 40-42 and barely scrape into the playoffs. And the pre- season kinda reinforced that notion with more national outlets taking notice.
To me though, the biggest development of the pre-season is just how bad the Nets really look. There one Lopez injury from being a genuine, 100% dumpster fire that would be one of the worst teams in the league. As is, they'll be lucky to give us anything higher than a top-ten pick. If they start slow, which they certainly could considering their schedule, that pick will gain some serious value by the deadline. Start praying for the Kings to implode. There's a real legit chance we could make the 2nd round of the playoffs and get a top 5 pick from Brooklyn. I think you could make a case that there's at least a 1 in. 3 or 50/50 chance of that happening.
