Who looks better so far- KO or Sully?

[chambers]

So far, Kelly has received far more minutes (19.8 mpg) than Sully (13.0 mpg), and more of KO's time on the floor has been with the top-of-the-rotation players, while Sully has logged a large share of his minutes as the veteran chaperone with a lot of the youngsters.

We have only played through three pre-season games, of which two were not even against NBA teams.

It is silly to read too much into what has happened so far.

While Sully has not seen the floor as much yet, he has not, actually, played all that badly in the minutes he has been given.  Here are their per-36 comparisons (team rank in parenthesis):

Player    PTS        REB       AST       STL     BLK
Sully    22.1( 5th) 11.1(2nd) 2.8(10th) 2.8(2nd) 0.9( 7th)
Kelly    13.3(12th)  6.7(7th) 4.2( 9th) 1.8(9th) 0.0(12th)

Viewed on a per-minute basis, it's not as if KO has out-produced Sully.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

I think it's reasonable to observe that KO has been much more highly utilized and may so far look like a more obvious fit with the types of lineups that Stevens has put on the floor.

But I also know that this is just preseason and it is still very early.

TP couldn't have said it better myself. Sully's been playing 'handcuffed' minutes so far. He had a few minutes with Amir tonight- but Stevens refuses to let him play in the post. He basically wants him guarding the paint on D, but won't let him bang. It's understandable given our emphasis on shooting at the moment and Sully's taken a lot of rushed shots.

Kelly has had good minutes with a good unit of passers and playmakers with plenty of wide open shots.
Don't get me wrong, KO has played well, and his style of game fits in with what Stevens is experimenting with during preseason- he's definitely put on some size and he's trying to be more assertive (with mixed results).

But KO has had a lot more opportunity at this stage.

Saying that Sully is almost a 3rd stringer is way over the top for a few games into preseason. I think Sully is hustling and trying harder on both ends- which is probably Stevens strategy for trying to get the best out of him. If he continues to give more effort he'll get more minutes.

[SHAQATTACK]

Don't forget KO is suspended for opening game of season .


He picked on K Love last year

[Celtics4ever]

Stevens refuses to let him play in the post.

Do you see the Milan game?  He played most of the game in the post.   Last night a lot of his 1 for 8 shots were drives.   What are we revising history now?

He basically wants him guarding the paint on D, but won't let him bang.

 

He has 7 fouls in the last two games in 31 minutes to play.  Last night, he was banging and got a flagrant.  I think it is ludicrous to think he wants Sully to guard anywhere.   He can't protect the rim, he lacks lateral movement, his best defensive move, is a hard foul.

Sully's taken a lot of rushed shots.

He has always tried to be the man, if he is so skilled, even on a rushed shot why is he shooting 21% from the field.  Everybody shoots better if not rushed but this him taking rushed shots is not even remotely true.   He initiated drives last nights, early in the possession.  He has taken jump shots, early in possessions.   Want me to post some tape?

I think Sully is hustling and trying harder on both ends- which is probably Stevens strategy for trying to get the best out of him. If he continues to give more effort he'll get more minutes.

 

We finally agree on something, although I think it is less about strategy and more about Stevens not caring for him as a player, who does not fit his system and Sully sabotaging himself with his " training with Lucas" ( which was largely useless in terms of weight loss) and not pushing away the plate.  Also, could it be that other teams go on scoring runs, he came in the second quarter last night and the Knicks lead blossomed.

CBS has options now and guys who play defense and can play a little offense.  He is not forced to rely on Sully.   Sully almost has regressed into a rebounding specialist, he scored and shot well the first game, but so far against two NBA teams he is 2-16 from the field that is .125% FG.   Last year, he scored when out of shape at a decent clip but he has never been a marksmen but he had a field goal of  44%.

In past, he could score, he lacks lift even more than last year.   The jumpshot he got swatted on , he barely got mid net in height.   He also go swatted on layups.  Look at the 39 Sec  Mark the other block is right after it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8juquXo5KIA

Can't weight to hear the justification for that one.  Was there  a minute gravity well that popped up and limited his jumping ability?  Did CBS put something in his food that sabotaged his legs?   Did Ainge secretly cut some tendons so he can 't jump and sign him cheaper?

The fact of the matter is a lot of his shots are falling short which denotes tired legs.  I thought the Jon Lucas stuff was of little use, and on the court, we are seeing a little more hustle.   So one would assume, they did some cardio.   But the athletic gains are not there which means they might have done the wrong kind of cardio.

Kelly has had good minutes with a good unit of passers and playmakers with plenty of wide open shots.
Don't get me wrong, KO has played well, and his style of game fits in with what Stevens is experimenting with during preseason- he's definitely put on some size and he's trying to be more assertive (with mixed results).

Do you think that there is a real possibly that KO plays better with these guys than Sully in practice?   Perhaps that is why he plays with those guys,  also guys tend to pass the ball to guys who make it, not guys who shoot 21%.   His game also fit better last year, as this is the same style.   It is not like he changed it to screw Sully.   Sully is a poor defender, does not like to run the floor.   He was not a great fit last year.

The one thing Sully does, is he does not back down.   He was tough in the Cavs series when some other guys wilted and he was tough when the going got tough last night.  He shot like heck, but he might be a guy who is a hatchet man in the making/enforcer.  I though the Knicks bullied us.  This was a positive last year, I thought we were evaluating him at length and he played a lot more last night.

Pound for pound, no pun intended by the minute he is our best rebounder.   That has not changed.  But you have to be more than a one trick pony and his game has diminished in other areas.

Sully did this to himself, folks.  No one, forced all that food on him.   No one told him, to train on his own with dubious results.   He is shooting 21% from the field.  He is slighted improved in fitness level but is still too heavy and not to the level he should be.   There is no vast conspiracy against him to deny him playing time.   The truth is Ainge got tired of his bullcrap and got us some other guys so we do not have to rely on an injury prone, overweight guy that does not play D.  That being said, I do feel a little sorry for him and it is always sad to see a guy self-destruct an athletic career.

These analysis using PER 36 for a guy who is not conditioned enough to play that much time and which I have proven that he would foul out in less than that time by a margin are funny as crap.   But then again there were Germans thinking they would win, as the Russians stormed Berlin, so who I am to judge.

But KO has had a lot more opportunity at this stage.

Who would you play more?   The guy who works hard on his body and has grown in skill or the guy who has let himself go and regressed.  I think we all know your answer in this regard.

Here is a weird stat KO has a eff rating of  +10, Sully has a - 0.8.   We know CBS is a numbers man.   A lot of peoples eyes fool them.   But statistics do not lie, they are facts.   Sully is a scoring 7.3 PPG ( now you said he had less opportunity, but should not a such a gifted player score more and shoot better, because you even admit he is playing with and against inferior second team guys and scrubs, something you did not account for in the excuse ladden analysis).  KO is scoring  6 PPG.  Sully is getting 5.5 RPG to KO 's 3.5 ( again against inferior competition as you said KO is playing with the better players which also indicates that he is probably playing against better defenders).   Still this massive difference in EFF?  You can bet that CBS notices that.  Mickey has a better EFF than Sully.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612738/players/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

Now for our WORD OF THE DAY:  DENIAL  a psychological defense mechanism, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.


   

[chambers]

Stevens refuses to let him play in the post.

Do you see the Milan game?  He played most of the game in the post.   Last night a lot of his 1 for 8 shots were drives.   What are we revising history now?

He basically wants him guarding the paint on D, but won't let him bang.

 

He has 7 fouls in the last two games in 31 minutes to play.  Last night, he was banging and got a flagrant.  I think it is ludicrous to think he wants Sully to guard anywhere.   He can't protect the rim, he lacks lateral movement, his best defensive move, is a hard foul.

Sully's taken a lot of rushed shots.

He has always tried to be the man, if he is so skilled, even on a rushed shot why is he shooting 21% from the field.  Everybody shoots better if not rushed but this him taking rushed shots is not even remotely true.   He initiated drives last nights, early in the possession.  He has taken jump shots, early in possessions.   Want me to post some tape?

I think Sully is hustling and trying harder on both ends- which is probably Stevens strategy for trying to get the best out of him. If he continues to give more effort he'll get more minutes.

 

We finally agree on something, although I think it is less about strategy and more about Stevens not caring for him as a player, who does not fit his system and Sully sabotaging himself with his " training with Lucas" ( which was largely useless in terms of weight loss) and not pushing away the plate.  Also, could it be that other teams go on scoring runs, he came in the second quarter last night and the Knicks lead blossomed.

CBS has options now and guys who play defense and can play a little offense.  He is not forced to rely on Sully.   Sully almost has regressed into a rebounding specialist, he scored and shot well the first game, but so far against two NBA teams he is 2-16 from the field that is .125% FG.   Last year, he scored when out of shape at a decent clip but he has never been a marksmen but he had a field goal of  44%.

In past, he could score, he lacks lift even more than last year.   The jumpshot he got swatted on , he barely got mid net in height.   He also go swatted on layups.  Look at the 39 Sec  Mark the other block is right after it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8juquXo5KIA

Can't weight to hear the justification for that one.  Was there  a minute gravity well that popped up and limited his jumping ability?  Did CBS put something in his food that sabotaged his legs?   Did Ainge secretly cut some tendons so he can 't jump and sign him cheaper?

The fact of the matter is a lot of his shots are falling short which denotes tired legs.  I thought the Jon Lucas stuff was of little use, and on the court, we are seeing a little more hustle.   So one would assume, they did some cardio.   But the athletic gains are not there which means they might have done the wrong kind of cardio.

Kelly has had good minutes with a good unit of passers and playmakers with plenty of wide open shots.
Don't get me wrong, KO has played well, and his style of game fits in with what Stevens is experimenting with during preseason- he's definitely put on some size and he's trying to be more assertive (with mixed results).

Do you think that there is a real possibly that KO plays better with these guys than Sully in practice?   Perhaps that is why he plays with those guys,  also guys tend to pass the ball to guys who make it, not guys who shoot 21%.   His game also fit better last year, as this is the same style.   It is not like he changed it to screw Sully.   Sully is a poor defender, does not like to run the floor.   He was not a great fit last year.

The one thing Sully does, is he does not back down.   He was tough in the Cavs series when some other guys wilted and he was tough when the going got tough last night.  He shot like heck, but he might be a guy who is a hatchet man in the making/enforcer.  I though the Knicks bullied us.  This was a positive last year, I thought we were evaluating him at length and he played a lot more last night.

Pound for pound, no pun intended by the minute he is our best rebounder.   That has not changed.  But you have to be more than a one trick pony and his game has diminished in other areas.

Sully did this to himself, folks.  No one, forced all that food on him.   No one told him, to train on his own with dubious results.   He is shooting 21% from the field.  He is slighted improved in fitness level but is still too heavy and not to the level he should be.   There is no vast conspiracy against him to deny him playing time.   The truth is Ainge got tired of his bullcrap and got us some other guys so we do not have to rely on an injury prone, overweight guy that does not play D.  That being said, I do feel a little sorry for him and it is always sad to see a guy self-destruct an athletic career.

These analysis using PER 36 for a guy who is not conditioned enough to play that much time and which I have proven that he would foul out in less than that time by a margin are funny as crap.   But then again there were Germans thinking they would win, as the Russians stormed Berlin, so who I am to judge.

But KO has had a lot more opportunity at this stage.

Who would you play more?   The guy who works hard on his body and has grown in skill or the guy who has let himself go and regressed.  I think we all know your answer in this regard.

Here is a weird stat KO has a eff rating of  +10, Sully has a - 0.8.   We know CBS is a numbers man.   A lot of peoples eyes fool them.   But statistics do not lie, they are facts.   Sully is a scoring 7.3 PPG ( now you said he had less opportunity, but should not a such a gifted player score more and shoot better, because you even admit he is playing with and against inferior second team guys and scrubs, something you did not account for in the excuse ladden analysis).  KO is scoring  6 PPG.  Sully is getting 5.5 RPG to KO 's 3.5 ( again against inferior competition as you said KO is playing with the better players which also indicates that he is probably playing against better defenders).   Still this massive difference in EFF?  You can bet that CBS notices that.  Mickey has a better EFF than Sully.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612738/players/?sort=PLUS_MINUS&dir=1

Now for our WORD OF THE DAY:  DENIAL  a psychological defense mechanism, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.


   

Lol you're getting way too excited about 3 pre season games. And vs the Nets and Knicks his effort and hustle was great. The guy simply can't do anything right to you.
You're hate for him is ridiculous and absolutely unwarranted.
You need some perspective, you sound like bballtim defending Rondo, except your mission is to taint Sullinger's image at all costs. You literally ignore any positive contribution he has ever made because you hate that he's a bigger player. You ignore the defensive stats and continue to call him a terrible defender, always relaying every argument back to how fat he is and how he needs to stop eating. Read your posts.
You're trying to build an argument around 3 pre season games in which he's come off the bench and shot poorly when you know where he stood for the entire last season as an excellent jumpshooter, rebounder and his standings in post and PnR defense that prove he is certainly not terrible as you rinse and repeat with every opportunity - none of which you've acknowledged. You're like a drunken Parrott. Okay you hate him. We get it. Just don't insult everyone that thinks he's more than a worthless lard.
3.... preseason.... games.

[Celtics4ever]

BTW 5:34 mark in the fourth is where Sully could not help Mickey off the floor and dropped his team mate.

The guy simply can't do anything right to you.

  This is the big difference between you and I.   I admit he brought toughness in my above post and he was the best rebounder in the game.  I admit all the time when he is right.

Keep telling yourself that , I just hate him, it is just me, it may make it easier for you to ignore the facts that I have posted and what your eyes are seeing.   I get it you like the guy and your having a hard time coping with the fact, that he has squandered his talent.  I am the reason that previews do not feature him.   I am friends with CBS and convinced him not to play him.   I bought him tons of McDonald's gift cards and kept him fat.  I went down to Houston and sabotaged his training.  I see now why you relate so well to him.  He blames his body, you blame me.   Must be nice, to always blame others for everything that goes wrong.   I bet your a real stand up guy.

You ignore the defensive stats and continue to call him a terrible defender,

I have yet to see one of Sully fans be able to post defensive stats in his favor.  I am able to post stats for my viewpoint.  Where are these stats?   Post them.   I welcome it.  What we get from you guys are stats that are per 36 minutes that he will never play given his conditioning or rate of fouls.

Just don't insult everyone that thinks he's more than a worthless lard.

I didn't insult anyone.   I challenged your view point and you seem unable to refute it with facts that up your opinion.  If you can't deal with it, then grow up maybe.  The fact is he is overweight, this hurts him as a player, if you find this insulting, then I will buy you some tissues.

You're trying to build an argument around 3 pre season games in which he's come off the bench and shot poorly when you know where he stood for the entire last season as an excellent jumpshooter, rebounder and his standings in post and PnR defense that prove he is certainly not terrible

Then why is his shot short?  Also, I have been harping on these things long before it was fashionable to do so.  Tell us, why is the anoited one coming of the bench?

y shadowing Hawes, but that opens up Thaddeus Young for a simple alley-oop slam.[/quote]

http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/31/5363526/assessing-the-boston-celtics-pick-and-roll-defense-analysis-advanced-stat

Here are some of the stats I think you allege show his prowess as a defender.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/oppshooting/?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*bos&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

You will note that KO and Zeller are superior to him in post shot percentage against.   But guys within five feet shot  58% against your boy.  Both of those two are superior to him in every range but 20-24 feet.

POST Some, I showed you were to find them, let us see these facts.  I welcome your facts.

All kinds of great ones here like the ones who show who moves least and the slowest.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/speed/?CF=TEAM_ABBREVIATION*E*BOS&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=DIST_48&dir=1

As for his PNR, he was 76th percentile which was best for our bigs, but he is a lot to move around again.    However, you misrepresent that as Elite, which it is not.  It would be a C in school.   NOTE, I admitted it something good , something you never do acknowledge in terms of his faults.   I think this serves as a clear illustration as who is blind to facts.  But fact of the matter is you never posted them, you claimed them, the rest of them do not bear him out as a very good defender.

But I looked at these stats, and I challenge you to post them and his ranking on the team in all of them.   In fact, I welcome it.    LET's SEE THEM FOR ALL TO SEE!

3.... preseason.... games.

Every pattern out there starts with a few games.   As usual does not reinforce your narrative so you ignore it.   But statistically, other than rebound well, his other stats have been abysmal.   Preseason or no.   Do you think Ainge is going to lock him down for years to come with that shooting percentage and show off discipline in the off season?  20 games in will you feel the same, if this is still going on.

I'll leave you with a quote from the great Bob Ryan

"I’m holding Sullinger accountable. I in no way hold the coaching staff accountable for him," Ryan said "He ought to be better. I really want to move on from him. Don’t blame the coaches for Sullinger. I want to move on."

http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/10/4/9449145/bob-ryan-time-to-move-on-from-jared-sullinger

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/3/f/4/3f467ff6eb612b92/Celtics_Beat_w__Bob_Ryan_10_4_15.mp3?c_id=9951130&expiration=1445133267&hwt=02eb3039296e7dc150344f5d2f927b97

18;30 mark starts talking about him
23:00 mark has more Bob Ryan thoughts.

Ainge got tired of his antics.   He went out and got other people to play.

 3 preseason games?  How about 3 season of the guy coming in each year and hoping to play himself in shape.   That is not the Celtic way nor is it Celtics pride.  How does this help the team?  Do please tell.

Right now the poll is 30 to 5 in KO's favor.  So `14% of people agree with you, I hope you feel comfortable in that minority.  I don't think either of these guys is a long term answer and I have always felt both are deeply flawed.

[chambers]

Basically you've given up on Sullinger. I haven't.

Okay so you and I have wasted far too much time  on this subject. This will be my final reply (for now lol) which hopefully gives you an insight as to why I think he still has plenty of potential.

He's got his issues that are serious. He needs a reality check and quickly.
You're basically throwing him in the Fab Melo basket and want no part of him any more. I have acknowledged his severe flaws and pointed out that his defense is not as bad as you make it out to be. I've posted this 3 times now, but it hasn't been acknowledged.
 He ranks 51 of 93 PFs in DRPM:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/6

Slightly below average in rim protection among PFs but rebounds in the top 10% of all NBA power forwards.
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

And for his career a slight positive in on/off defensively, but for last year a negative. Per NBA.com's play type stats, he's in the 42nd percentile in PnR roll man defense, and 71st percentile in post up defense. That means he's better than 71% of NBA power forwards at post defense and 8% below the average at pick and roll defense of all NBA power forwards.
Again, not stellar, but by no means 'terrible' as you continually repeat. He's got fast hands and is very good at disrupting opponents who bring the ball down too low.

So basically, he's not great, but there are worse defenders. MUCH worse considering he's played against NBA starters, with Kelly Olynyk and Brandon Bass as his help defenders against starting NBA big men on a nightly basis.

He's an elite jumpshooter from 10-16 feet in the NBA. His three point shot was over 35% for half the games he played in last year.
If he wasn't asked to shoot so many threes as part of his development last season he'd probably have a top 5 or 6 offensive rebounding rate in the NBA better than Tristan Thompson considering how close their rates are now.

His conditioning is infuriating, his attitude is infuriating. But he is getting better as a player and now has some competition in the locker room to light a fire under his fat a$$.
He's also a year younger than Kelly Olynyk.

Yeah he's a slob, but you can't trade him away for pennies on the dollar or completely give up on him just because he hasn't become Zac Randolph yet.
Funny how people accused Zac Randolph of similar character traits in his first few years in the NBA.

Most people have a 'moment' when they realize the consequences of their actions and reality sets in that they are either as good as they thought, or they have been kidding themselves. For most people it's when a parent dies or when they become a parent. Near death experiences can also bring this out. At age 23 Sully likely hasn't experienced this reality check yet. He's come into the league, played with the great KG and Pierce, and after they left, he became our best player next to an injured Rondo. He's been on cruise control and really hasn't had to put in any work because he's had no reason to. This is obviously the wrong attitude to take, but at age 23 some guys just aren't mature enough to understand their place.
Of course he might not ever 'get it'. But Jarred Sullinger at age 23 still has time to develop be it emotionally, physically and mentally.

If he stinks this year and plays 20 mpg behind David Lee then we'll let him walk or sign him to a cheap deal.
If someone else wants to overpay him then who cares? Let them.
If the guy still has the mindset of an 18 year old big man on campus then maybe a season of riding the pine behind a real NBA veteran like David Lee can do him wonders. Maybe it hasn't sunk in yet but he's got a serious competitor for the majority of minutes at PF in Lee, and Olynyk is coming along after working hard this off season. At some point it will sink in that to get paid like an NBA starter you've got to work like a starter and respect your profession. If he doesn't get that then fair enough- but has really ever been tested like he'll be tested this season with the competition for minutes he's facing?

Point is that the pros outweigh the cons at the moment on the court for this guy and just because he p---es you off with his laziness and attitude doesn't mean he should be traded for whatever we can get. This season is his biggest and realest test.

I just ask that you try to separate the emotional fat hating from things. Look at Sully for what he is. A net positive RPM player on a cheap contract.
He really started to hit his stride and then the injury came along last year. He came back and was our best player vs the Cavs.
I'm not saying we should throw 5 years 60 million at the guy, but some players need a challenge or something to motivate them and he really hasn't had that since KG and Pierce left.

Don't treat him like Fab Melo just yet.

[rollie mass]

i think the one play that bothered me the most was sully rebounding and going length of court,
after working all summer and coming back like he did makes it next to impossible to give him a long term contract
it is not going to get easier to take off weight or keep from weight gain as he gets older
With the upcoming multitude of draft picks next year, give him the rest of season there will
 be injuries
his trade value will increase towards trading deadline,so will lee's and jerebkos
kelly is getting bigger and better and this is only his 3rd season and he fits brads system

[billysan]

In a dead sprint 3/4? who do you take?

I like both guys but as stated 'not on the court together' when it matters. I think Brad is letting Sully know that he will really have to earn his PT this year because the big man depth makes him expendable or a ride the pine candidate if he doesnt.

As to trade value? I doubt either is more than a throw in or filler at this point. Do either show Al Jefferson potential to net a superstar? so its going to be more role players, aging veterans and Picks. Did I mention picks?

Would not surprise me to find out they are attempting to 'showcase' KO a little with all the PT either. Still he isnt the center piece of anything major but a 2nd unit big piece that someone may like as a facillitator at the post.

Both are still decent 2nd unit players at this stage with very little upside remaining IMO. It does not matter how much weight Sully loses or strength KO adds. Better work on the FT% and jumper along with conditioning.

[mctyson]

We trade whichever player Danny can trade to get a superstar with a package of players and picks. If a team wants Sully in that package, let them have him.

I don't think many teams want Sully.  He was passed up on draft day for a reason (fitness/injury).  I don't think anything he has done recently have made those decisions look wrong. 

I think KO will become interesting to some teams, especially if he improves defensively.  His offensive skill set is real and would be valuable on any roster.  I think he could start on a playoff team potentially.

Having said that....

I don't want Danny to trade either of these guys.  I think they will not get maximum value as they are both still young and could continue to improve.  Yes - if a KG-like trade was available I would relent but I don't think that type of deal will happen.  I don't want to throw these guys to other teams and watch them improve while we have an underperforming, overpaid "star" that doesn't make the team much better.

[Surferdad]

Basically you've given up on Sullinger. I haven't.

Okay so you and I have wasted far too much time  on this subject. This will be my final reply (for now lol) which hopefully gives you an insight as to why I think he still has plenty of potential.

He's got his issues that are serious. He needs a reality check and quickly.
You're basically throwing him in the Fab Melo basket and want no part of him any more. I have acknowledged his severe flaws and pointed out that his defense is not as bad as you make it out to be. I've posted this 3 times now, but it hasn't been acknowledged.
 He ranks 51 of 93 PFs in DRPM:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/6

Slightly below average in rim protection among PFs but rebounds in the top 10% of all NBA power forwards.
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

And for his career a slight positive in on/off defensively, but for last year a negative. Per NBA.com's play type stats, he's in the 42nd percentile in PnR roll man defense, and 71st percentile in post up defense. That means he's better than 71% of NBA power forwards at post defense and 8% below the average at pick and roll defense of all NBA power forwards.
Again, not stellar, but by no means 'terrible' as you continually repeat. He's got fast hands and is very good at disrupting opponents who bring the ball down too low.

So basically, he's not great, but there are worse defenders. MUCH worse considering he's played against NBA starters, with Kelly Olynyk and Brandon Bass as his help defenders against starting NBA big men on a nightly basis.

He's an elite jumpshooter from 10-16 feet in the NBA. His three point shot was over 35% for half the games he played in last year.
If he wasn't asked to shoot so many threes as part of his development last season he'd probably have a top 5 or 6 offensive rebounding rate in the NBA better than Tristan Thompson considering how close their rates are now.

His conditioning is infuriating, his attitude is infuriating. But he is getting better as a player and now has some competition in the locker room to light a fire under his fat a$$.
He's also a year younger than Kelly Olynyk.

Yeah he's a slob, but you can't trade him away for pennies on the dollar or completely give up on him just because he hasn't become Zac Randolph yet.
Funny how people accused Zac Randolph of similar character traits in his first few years in the NBA.

Most people have a 'moment' when they realize the consequences of their actions and reality sets in that they are either as good as they thought, or they have been kidding themselves. For most people it's when a parent dies or when they become a parent. Near death experiences can also bring this out. At age 23 Sully likely hasn't experienced this reality check yet. He's come into the league, played with the great KG and Pierce, and after they left, he became our best player next to an injured Rondo. He's been on cruise control and really hasn't had to put in any work because he's had no reason to. This is obviously the wrong attitude to take, but at age 23 some guys just aren't mature enough to understand their place.
Of course he might not ever 'get it'. But Jarred Sullinger at age 23 still has time to develop be it emotionally, physically and mentally.

If he stinks this year and plays 20 mpg behind David Lee then we'll let him walk or sign him to a cheap deal.
If someone else wants to overpay him then who cares? Let them.
If the guy still has the mindset of an 18 year old big man on campus then maybe a season of riding the pine behind a real NBA veteran like David Lee can do him wonders. Maybe it hasn't sunk in yet but he's got a serious competitor for the majority of minutes at PF in Lee, and Olynyk is coming along after working hard this off season. At some point it will sink in that to get paid like an NBA starter you've got to work like a starter and respect your profession. If he doesn't get that then fair enough- but has really ever been tested like he'll be tested this season with the competition for minutes he's facing?

Point is that the pros outweigh the cons at the moment on the court for this guy and just because he p---es you off with his laziness and attitude doesn't mean he should be traded for whatever we can get. This season is his biggest and realest test.

I just ask that you try to separate the emotional fat hating from things. Look at Sully for what he is. A net positive RPM player on a cheap contract.
He really started to hit his stride and then the injury came along last year. He came back and was our best player vs the Cavs.
I'm not saying we should throw 5 years 60 million at the guy, but some players need a challenge or something to motivate them and he really hasn't had that since KG and Pierce left.

Don't treat him like Fab Melo just yet.

TP, I agree. I would add however, that if the right deal comes along before the deadline, he is gone. Other teams may also see that a change in scenery and new motivation may yet turn this guy into a decent NBA player, at least that could be the selling point thrown out by DA.

What I find remarkable is how many posters simply forget or ignore the fact that Jared Sullinger was the best player on this team for extended stretches. That includes both scoring and rebounding.

[Celtics4ever]

He's got his issues that are serious. He needs a reality check and quickly.
You're basically throwing him in the Fab Melo basket and want no part of him any more. I have acknowledged his severe flaws and pointed out that his defense is not as bad as you make it out to be. I've posted this 3 times now, but it hasn't been acknowledged.
 He ranks 51 of 93 PFs in DRPM:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/6

Slightly below average in rim protection among PFs but rebounds in the top 10% of all NBA power forwards.
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

To respond to your stats, and thank you for posting them.    I will add one thing 53, out of 93 is not very good.  There are 29 teams, that places him squarely in the lower tier of the bench guys that come off the bench first.  You have 29 starters and 24 bench guys that are ahead of him.   That would be 56%  not even remotely near the top.  This is well below average. and not in the top half given he is 53 out of 93.   So I don't find that valid, but thanks for posting something that does not back your argument, it takes integrity to do that.

I could respond by posting quite a few categories where he is not very good like transition D and quite a few others.   But as you say let's move on.

Point is that the pros outweigh the cons at the moment on the court for this guy and just because he p---es you off with his laziness and attitude doesn't mean he should be traded for whatever we can get. This season is his biggest and realest test.

This is really where we disagree.   I think he is expendable, last year showed that. 
You say I am giving up on him, I would use the term cutting our losses.  He already failed the first part of that test in showing up out of shape and overweight at camp again.

The real question, despite our debates is whether CBS and Ainge has given up on him.   I guess we will find out this year.

[chambers]

He's got his issues that are serious. He needs a reality check and quickly.
You're basically throwing him in the Fab Melo basket and want no part of him any more. I have acknowledged his severe flaws and pointed out that his defense is not as bad as you make it out to be. I've posted this 3 times now, but it hasn't been acknowledged.
 He ranks 51 of 93 PFs in DRPM:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/page/2/sort/DRPM/position/6

Slightly below average in rim protection among PFs but rebounds in the top 10% of all NBA power forwards.
http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

To respond to your stats, and thank you for posting them.    I will add one thing 53, out of 93 is not very good.  There are 29 teams, that places him squarely in the lower tier of the bench guys that come off the bench first.  You have 29 starters and 24 bench guys that are ahead of him.   That would be 56%  not even remotely near the top.  This is well below average. and not in the top half given he is 53 out of 93.   So I don't find that valid, but thanks for posting something that does not back your argument, it takes integrity to do that.

I could respond by posting quite a few categories where he is not very good like transition D and quite a few others.   But as you say let's move on.

Point is that the pros outweigh the cons at the moment on the court for this guy and just because he p---es you off with his laziness and attitude doesn't mean he should be traded for whatever we can get. This season is his biggest and realest test.

This is really where we disagree.   I think he is expendable, last year showed that. 
You say I am giving up on him, I would use the term cutting our losses.  He already failed the first part of that test in showing up out of shape and overweight at camp again.

[/b]

The real question, despite our debates is whether CBS and Ainge has given up on him.   I guess we will find out this year.

That's fair enough, but for $2.2 million that basically doesn't count against the cap I don't think you're going to get a better player coming in.
I just don't think that by dumping him that we are cutting any kind of losses.
 This way we see a cheap solid player with potential and time running out and what he's made of. If he doesn't pan out them meh, let him walk or match any bargain offers higher than the qualifying offer and he can be a cheap back up big man for Ben Simmons or Skal Labissiere for the next 4 years.

Thanks for the civilized discussion.

[Rondo9]

My first look at Sully is in tonight's Knicks game .. . immediately thought he looked just as heavy and unfit as ever.

The local broadcast talked about it for a while and thought he looked bigger than last year.

He is what he is at this point. Never going to really transform the physique. Too bad.

Giving up already? Sad.

[mmmmm]

While Sully has not seen the floor as much yet, he has not, actually, played all that badly in the minutes he has been given.  Here are their per-36 comparisons (team rank in parenthesis):


Player    PTS        REB       AST       STL     BLK
Sully    22.1( 5th) 11.1(2nd) 2.8(10th) 2.8(2nd) 0.9( 7th)
Kelly    13.3(12th)  6.7(7th) 4.2( 9th) 1.8(9th) 0.0(12th)


Viewed on a per-minute basis, it's not as if KO has out-produced Sully.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

You can bet the other team producted more with Sully in there too, probably markedly so, this is why he is almost always in the negative +/-. 

2-16 the last to games from the field and you feel compelled to defend him?  I think it is almost a sickness with you, I fear.

You can always spot a Sullinger defender by their omission of stats. 

He is 7-32 for FG attempts for this preseason.  That is 21% not from the three from the field.  That is horrific, thanks for omitting this in your analysis.   Didn't fit your narrative  so it was not important.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6624/jared-sullinger

KO is not shooting great but he is shooting better.  10 for 24 which is .42%.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/2489663/kelly-olynyk

Sully also per minute analysis is pretty bad analysis too.   He still lacks conditioning to play extended minutes so why extrapolate minutes that he simply can't play because of lack of conditioning and tendency for foul trouble?  It is disingenuous at best.   7 foulsin 31 minutes of play the last two games.  That is a foul every 4.4 minutes, that means he would foul out in 26.4 minutes.  So per 36 definitely would not work for him, given he is fouling at that rate.  If one looks all his preseason games he would last but 33 minutes.  Still not 36.\

He rebounded well tonight again, big surprise, he shot poorly, 1-8.   If I were you I would not get attached to him.

one thing I notice is when Sully gets the ball, the ball movement usually stops

I would guess one can say that about food in his presence as well.   It stops existing.

You accuse me of omitting information while noticeably committing the caveats I stated in my post?

We have only played through three pre-season games, of which two were not even against NBA teams.

It is silly to read too much into what has happened so far.

I'll start quoting FG% when we get to at least a few hundred FGA, not 32 or 24.  Heck, even the per-36 production is near meaningless other than as a record of what happened.  And to that point, on per-minute basis, Sully at least produced more rebounds, points steals and blocks while he was on the floor.   It doesn't mean much beyond that.

The point isn't to say that Sully has played wonderful.  It's to illustrate that you can't say definitively that KO has really played any better.  The sample sizes right now are so small and so skewed by context that trying to say which has performed better isn't really as clear as some would assert.

I am not a 'Sully defender'. The only thing I'm trying to defend here is common sense, which is to not read too much into such small preseason samples, half of which to this point were not even against NBA competition.

I am not 'attached' to any of our players at this point.  I've repeatedly stated in multiple posts both here in the forums as well as on the front page that every single one of our players is a candidate to be gone before the start of next Fall.  Every single contract is tradable and no one is, imo, untouchable.

I will have no problem if Sully or any of our players get traded, so long as it ends up making the Celtics better in the long run.

Don't assume, though, that the player you think has played better is less likely to be traded or that the one you think has played worse is the one more likely to be traded.   That's not really how it works.

EDIT:  Oh, and btw.  The point of per-36 isn't necessarily to project what a player _would_ have produced if he played 36 minutes so your criticism based on your assertion that he could never play that long is ridiculous.  The point of per-36 is to normalize rates of measured production that already happened.    And saying Sully would foul out long before he reached 36 based on preseason off-the-bench rates seems a bit of a reach considering that he has averaged just 4.4 and 3.5 PF/36 in each of the last two seasons.   KO, by comparison has barely squeaked in under six with averages of 5.8 & 5.3 PF/36.   Of the two, it is KO that has had far more trouble staying on the floor due to foul trouble.

[Moranis]

better so far is not the same thing as better.  KO has looked better so far, but Sully is better (in my mind).