Is needing a superstar a fallacy?

[obnoxiousmime]

Chauncey Billups - 3rd overall pick
Rip Hamilton - 7th overall pick
Tayshaun Prince - 23rd overall pick
Rasheed Wallace - 4th overall pick
Ben Wallace - Undrafted

3 of their 5 "quality starters" were still drafted early in the lottery. R. Wallace was always talented enough to be a star but due to his combustible nature, didn't reach his potential in Portland.

Also, these guys did it with tough, strong, big bodied players on defense. They had one Wallace who was an athletic freak and another who was 6'10'', long as hell, and could shoot 3s. We don't have anybody close to that in our frontcourt. We have guys who have some skills and rebound, but all have glaring weaknesses in their game whether it's defense, lack of athleticism, being undersized, or limited offensive game.

On the plus side, it's possible Smart could develop into a Billups if his shot improves. I'm pretty sure Bradley will never shoot consistently enough to be like Rip though, and he's also 4 inches shorter.

[walker834]

Cousins is similar to Rasheed Wallace imo.  We get Smart to go with Cousins......  And fill in hte other 3 spots.

Smart-6th pick
Rozier-16th pick
Turner-2nd pick
Olynyk-13th pick
Cousins-5th pick

draft position Turner kind of proves is meaningless though. We have David Lee who was the 30th p ick.  Sully was 19 I think.  Bradley,  Isiaiah, etc.. We have picks coming up and should have a high pick to put us in position regardless of Cousins.

[ahonui06]

Cousins is similar to Rasheed Wallace imo.  We get Smart to go with Cousins......  And fill in hte other 3 spots.

Smart-6th pick
Rozier-16th pick
Turner-2nd pick
Olynyk-13th pick
Cousins-5th pick

Cousins doesn't have the offensive range of Rasheed Wallace. Cousins is strictly a low post beast.

[celticsfan8591]

So we should pursue a strategy that has worked, by my count, twice in the history of the league (the Pistons and '79 Sonics) instead of the one that has worked every single other season?

I'm not saying we should be the pistons ei ther.  I think we should do our own thing and develop our own players.  If there is a superstar out there who is going to win us a championship more than likely that player isn't going to be traded anyways.  People talk about superstars but name me one that would come here.  Name me one that is going to win us a championship.

I agree that we should develop our players (that's really all we can do right now considering how our attempts to trade them have gone), but I think we should be doing so with the end goal of flipping them for a superstar who becomes available (unless of course one of our players becomes that superstar).  At this point I don't think tearing everything down and tanking to try to land a superstar is the way to go, but there is no way that we have a championship nucleus right now.  I don't think just sitting back and relying on internal development is going to get us where we want to go.

[CelticSooner]

Almost seems like you're looking for any sort of hope. Nope. You need All-star talents to win in the NBA.

http://sportsshow.denverpost.com/2015/05/11/more-with-les-nba-teams-can-t-win-titles-without-superstars/

[viulo]

The concept of superstar is really difficult to define.
If the Hawks, playing the way they did throughout most of the season and not last month + play-offs, had eliminated the Cavs, people would now be talking of Carroll has the new (older) Kawhi Leonard.
Superstars are the ones that get things done, and with most players you can't tell before they've done it.

[HomerSapien]

I don't think this team is at a point where the fans should realistically be talking about championships right now.  That is not a realistic possibility in the near future.  We currently have exactly zero players who would be playing big minutes on our next championship team. 

I think it is fair for us to be HOPEFUL that we have a couple of them on the roster like Smart and maybe RJ Hunter (I feel ridiculous typing that after only Summer League, but let me indulge in some wildly knee jerk optimism) but their games aren't at a point where they can play to that expectation yet.

Last year, the most encouraging thing for me was it appeared that the team was figuring out how to close out games.  To me, that is an important first step for a group of players to learn in order for them to be a good team.  If they continue to build on that we might have something.

I do think it is also important to remember how young our roster is.  With the exception of Lee, Amir Johnson, Jerebko, and maybe Evan Turner, it is fair to expect all of our players to come into training camp better than they were when the season ended April 15.

[Jon]

I think people summed it up already pretty well, but I'd also add that not only were the '04 Pistons an exception, they were probably also one of the worst teams to win a title in a long time. I don't think it's a stretch to say that most other title teams as of late would have wiped the floor with them. I really think it was more of a Laker implosion than a Piston win.

So long story short, I think it's an especially bad goal to shoot for.

However, I do think trying to get as many Piston-like players on your roster as possible and THEN try to strike when a superstar becomes available is a good plan.

I just wouldn't count on winning a title until we get one.

[Monkhouse]

Cousins is similar to Rasheed Wallace imo.  We get Smart to go with Cousins......  And fill in hte other 3 spots.

Smart-6th pick
Rozier-16th pick
Turner-2nd pick
Olynyk-13th pick
Cousins-5th pick

Cousins doesn't have the offensive range of Rasheed Wallace. Cousins is strictly a low post beast.

This is where I'm going to disagree.

Around the period of Allstar break DMC was averaging 47.1 percent from mid range per basketball reference, from 10-16 feet, which is very impressive.

DMC has admitted himself that he would prefer to play PF, which I believe is the wrong assesment for his game. He is a 5, but only because trying to guard the quicker and more agile power forwards would lead him to more foul troubles. He averaged 4.1 fouls which is pretty bad, and 4.7 turnovers which is even worse.

But DMC is not just a low post beast, but a great mid range shooter, and is an underrated passer who had teammates who couldn't properly space the floor enough for him to operate.

The fifth-year man out of Kentucky is averaging 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in just 33.9 minutes per game. Those three main numbers—23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists—place Cousins among some rare company.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, only 16 centers have ever had a season in which they averaged at least 23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists. All of those players—with the exception of Spencer Haywood, whose Hall of Fame case is quite the debate—are either currently in the Hall or destined to be there.

This is an intriguing part of Cousins’ game. On the year, Cousins is shooting 46.7 percent, much lower than expected for a bruising back-to-the-basket big man. The reason for that is Cousins has attempted 296 mid-range jumpers so far this season—32.5 percent of his total shot attempts—and has only hit 37.2 percent of them, per NBA.com.

Compare that to the 58.8 percent he shoots in the restricted area and one would think that he should stop shooting jump shots entirely.

While it is true that he bails the defense out by shooting from the mid-range so much and his shot selection could improve, he shouldn’t cut it out altogether. Check out his free-throw percentage year-to-year.
Season    Age    Tm    G    GS    FT    FTA    FT%
2010-11    20    SAC    81    62    3.4    5.0    .687
2011-12    21    SAC    64    62    4.1    5.8    .702
2012-13    22    SAC    75    74    4.2    5.6    .738
2013-14    23    SAC    71    71    6.1    8.4    .726
2014-15 ?    24    SAC    52    52    7.3    9.1    .795
Career          342    320    4.8    6.6    .732

He has improved more than 10 percentage points from his rookie season to now. A big man who can score down low and shoot almost 80 percent from the line is a rare breed. That improved free-throw stroke also shows that he has good touch and should be able to become a consistent threat from mid-range.

If Cousins were able to hit that 15-17 foot jumper with regularity, it would force the defense to guard him tight farther from the basket. That would open up easier opportunities to pump fake and use his excellent-for-a-big-man handle to drive by slower centers.

Also, getting a few easy buckets off jumpers from mid-range could help boost his scoring and extend his career so that he doesn’t have to bang down low or get fouled for every point.

 

DMC has the potential to be a game changing big man. And even SAC would be stupid not to realize this.

Don't limit someone as talented as DMC as a 'low post threat,' its always been easy to quantify and compare free throw percentages to midrange/ 3pt capabilities.

If DMC worked on mid range, and progressively moved on to 3pt, which I think he could, DMC would probably be the first complete big man that could shoot in the low post, block, rebound, steal, pass, and shoot midrange/3pt with decent efficiency.

Scary.

[obnoxiousmime]

The concept of superstar is really difficult to define.
If the Hawks, playing the way they did throughout most of the season and not last month + play-offs, had eliminated the Cavs, people would now be talking of Carroll has the new (older) Kawhi Leonard.
Superstars are the ones that get things done, and with most players you can't tell before they've done it.

I would agree that sometimes you don't know if someone is a "super-duper" championship level star until they actually win a title. However, I will say that at the very least that player will have distinguished themselves in the regular season. For example, the Warriors won their first title this year and Curry was already considered one of the best PGs in the league. He was also one of, if not the best shooter in the league. Iguodala was a second-tier star in Philly, and Klay Thompson was a highly regarded shooter as well. Andrew Bogut was a former no 1 overall pick, Barnes was a no 7, and Green was just a great find.

We don't have anybody on our team remotely close to being a "among the best of this" in the league. The only thing that could qualify is Smart's defense, and then even that is not as impactful on a game as interior D. Let's get somebody who can even make an all-star team or be among the league leaders in some significant category before we start dreaming of championships.

[D.o.s.]

There are some on this site who would disagree that Curry was the best PG or the best shooter in the league this season.

I am not one of those people, but those sentiments were certainly expressed.

I think that hoping that we have some of the guys who could be some of the guys on a good team is probably the best bet for right now.

[HomerSapien]

Cousins is similar to Rasheed Wallace imo.  We get Smart to go with Cousins......  And fill in hte other 3 spots.

Smart-6th pick
Rozier-16th pick
Turner-2nd pick
Olynyk-13th pick
Cousins-5th pick

Cousins doesn't have the offensive range of Rasheed Wallace. Cousins is strictly a low post beast.

This is where I'm going to disagree.

Around the period of Allstar break DMC was averaging 47.1 percent from mid range per basketball reference, from 10-16 feet, which is very impressive.

DMC has admitted himself that he would prefer to play PF, which I believe is the wrong assesment for his game. He is a 5, but only because trying to guard the quicker and more agile power forwards would lead him to more foul troubles. He averaged 4.1 fouls which is pretty bad, and 4.7 turnovers which is even worse.

But DMC is not just a low post beast, but a great mid range shooter, and is an underrated passer who had teammates who couldn't properly space the floor enough for him to operate.

The fifth-year man out of Kentucky is averaging 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in just 33.9 minutes per game. Those three main numbers—23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists—place Cousins among some rare company.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, only 16 centers have ever had a season in which they averaged at least 23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists. All of those players—with the exception of Spencer Haywood, whose Hall of Fame case is quite the debate—are either currently in the Hall or destined to be there.

This is an intriguing part of Cousins’ game. On the year, Cousins is shooting 46.7 percent, much lower than expected for a bruising back-to-the-basket big man. The reason for that is Cousins has attempted 296 mid-range jumpers so far this season—32.5 percent of his total shot attempts—and has only hit 37.2 percent of them, per NBA.com.

Compare that to the 58.8 percent he shoots in the restricted area and one would think that he should stop shooting jump shots entirely.

While it is true that he bails the defense out by shooting from the mid-range so much and his shot selection could improve, he shouldn’t cut it out altogether. Check out his free-throw percentage year-to-year.
Season    Age    Tm    G    GS    FT    FTA    FT%
2010-11    20    SAC    81    62    3.4    5.0    .687
2011-12    21    SAC    64    62    4.1    5.8    .702
2012-13    22    SAC    75    74    4.2    5.6    .738
2013-14    23    SAC    71    71    6.1    8.4    .726
2014-15 ?    24    SAC    52    52    7.3    9.1    .795
Career          342    320    4.8    6.6    .732

He has improved more than 10 percentage points from his rookie season to now. A big man who can score down low and shoot almost 80 percent from the line is a rare breed. That improved free-throw stroke also shows that he has good touch and should be able to become a consistent threat from mid-range.

If Cousins were able to hit that 15-17 foot jumper with regularity, it would force the defense to guard him tight farther from the basket. That would open up easier opportunities to pump fake and use his excellent-for-a-big-man handle to drive by slower centers.

Also, getting a few easy buckets off jumpers from mid-range could help boost his scoring and extend his career so that he doesn’t have to bang down low or get fouled for every point.

 

DMC has the potential to be a game changing big man. And even SAC would be stupid not to realize this.

Don't limit someone as talented as DMC as a 'low post threat,' its always been easy to quantify and compare free throw percentages to midrange/ 3pt capabilities.

If DMC worked on mid range, and progressively moved on to 3pt, which I think he could, DMC would probably be the first complete big man that could shoot in the low post, block, rebound, steal, pass, and shoot midrange/3pt with decent efficiency.

Scary.

Agreed on this.  DMC is also the one star player I'm pretty sure will be available at some point this season.  After some questionable moves in June/July, to me, all it's gonna take is Sacramento getting a difficult early season schedule and starting out like 7 - 13, and I think the Karl/Cousins combo starts to fall apart, and by the trade deadline will be a downright disaster and DMC will be available for the right package.  Then hopefully Danny can work some magic.

[max215]

Because for every 03-04 Pistons there are five to ten 14-15 Hawks.

The same can be said about teams like the Rockets though. For every Golden state there are teams like Cleveland, Houston, etc that don't win.  Just look at the knicks.

Except when a team like the Rockets doesn't win, a team like the Warriors does win.

[crimson_stallion]

Because for every 03-04 Pistons there are five to ten 14-15 Hawks.

The same can be said about teams like the Rockets though. For every Golden state there are teams like Cleveland, Houston, etc that don't win.  Just look at the knicks.

Except when a team like the Rockets doesn't win, a team like the Warriors does win.

Not necessarily. 

When the 2013/14 (star filled) Heat didn't win, the Spurs did.
When the 2003/04 (star filled) Lakers didn't win, the Pistons did.

So doesn't always happen that way.  These are both examples of a team filled with big name stars getting beaten VERY convincingly by a team that didn't really have any big name stars. 

[obnoxiousmime]

Cousins is similar to Rasheed Wallace imo.  We get Smart to go with Cousins......  And fill in hte other 3 spots.

Smart-6th pick
Rozier-16th pick
Turner-2nd pick
Olynyk-13th pick
Cousins-5th pick

Cousins doesn't have the offensive range of Rasheed Wallace. Cousins is strictly a low post beast.

This is where I'm going to disagree.

Around the period of Allstar break DMC was averaging 47.1 percent from mid range per basketball reference, from 10-16 feet, which is very impressive.

DMC has admitted himself that he would prefer to play PF, which I believe is the wrong assesment for his game. He is a 5, but only because trying to guard the quicker and more agile power forwards would lead him to more foul troubles. He averaged 4.1 fouls which is pretty bad, and 4.7 turnovers which is even worse.

But DMC is not just a low post beast, but a great mid range shooter, and is an underrated passer who had teammates who couldn't properly space the floor enough for him to operate.

The fifth-year man out of Kentucky is averaging 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists in just 33.9 minutes per game. Those three main numbers—23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists—place Cousins among some rare company.

According to Basketball-Reference.com, only 16 centers have ever had a season in which they averaged at least 23 points, 12 rebounds and three assists. All of those players—with the exception of Spencer Haywood, whose Hall of Fame case is quite the debate—are either currently in the Hall or destined to be there.

This is an intriguing part of Cousins’ game. On the year, Cousins is shooting 46.7 percent, much lower than expected for a bruising back-to-the-basket big man. The reason for that is Cousins has attempted 296 mid-range jumpers so far this season—32.5 percent of his total shot attempts—and has only hit 37.2 percent of them, per NBA.com.

Compare that to the 58.8 percent he shoots in the restricted area and one would think that he should stop shooting jump shots entirely.

While it is true that he bails the defense out by shooting from the mid-range so much and his shot selection could improve, he shouldn’t cut it out altogether. Check out his free-throw percentage year-to-year.
Season    Age    Tm    G    GS    FT    FTA    FT%
2010-11    20    SAC    81    62    3.4    5.0    .687
2011-12    21    SAC    64    62    4.1    5.8    .702
2012-13    22    SAC    75    74    4.2    5.6    .738
2013-14    23    SAC    71    71    6.1    8.4    .726
2014-15 ?    24    SAC    52    52    7.3    9.1    .795
Career          342    320    4.8    6.6    .732

He has improved more than 10 percentage points from his rookie season to now. A big man who can score down low and shoot almost 80 percent from the line is a rare breed. That improved free-throw stroke also shows that he has good touch and should be able to become a consistent threat from mid-range.

If Cousins were able to hit that 15-17 foot jumper with regularity, it would force the defense to guard him tight farther from the basket. That would open up easier opportunities to pump fake and use his excellent-for-a-big-man handle to drive by slower centers.

Also, getting a few easy buckets off jumpers from mid-range could help boost his scoring and extend his career so that he doesn’t have to bang down low or get fouled for every point.

 

DMC has the potential to be a game changing big man. And even SAC would be stupid not to realize this.

Don't limit someone as talented as DMC as a 'low post threat,' its always been easy to quantify and compare free throw percentages to midrange/ 3pt capabilities.

If DMC worked on mid range, and progressively moved on to 3pt, which I think he could, DMC would probably be the first complete big man that could shoot in the low post, block, rebound, steal, pass, and shoot midrange/3pt with decent efficiency.

Scary.

Agreed on this.  DMC is also the one star player I'm pretty sure will be available at some point this season.  After some questionable moves in June/July, to me, all it's gonna take is Sacramento getting a difficult early season schedule and starting out like 7 - 13, and I think the Karl/Cousins combo starts to fall apart, and by the trade deadline will be a downright disaster and DMC will be available for the right package.  Then hopefully Danny can work some magic.

I think SAC fires Karl before they trade Cousins. You just don't trade somebody that young and talented who is still under contract unless they start sitting out games and start declaring they want out no matter who the coach is. I don't think the situation in SAC is at that point yet, but Cousins is hard to predict of course.

If that happens we might be able to offer a lot of picks but I think SAC doesn't want to totally rebuild. I can see a lot of teams offering more in terms of ready-to-play young talent.