All we need is for one player to hit

[oldtype]

When I look at teams in a similar position to us, the first one that comes to mind are the Utah Jazz. The Jazz are rebuilding: they have a core of decent yet unspectacular young players, and have had similar picks to us in the past three drafts (14+21/5+23/12). The Jazz aren't tanking anywhere near as hard as teams like the Sixers: like us, they are a team in fringe playoff contention. As a result, they're unlikely to add a franchise player through the draft anytime soon.

The one big difference between us and Utah is that one of their middling assets (the 27th pick in the 2013 draft, which they essentially bought off Denver for just cash) converted into a cornerstone asset in Rudy Gobert. That one stroke of luck is essentially, the only thing that separates them from us. One draft pick exceeding expectations is the difference between being an up and coming young team and being on the road to nowhere like us.

So while it may look like we have no way out of our current predicament, all we really need to make the first step towards progress is for one of our young players to hit. It could be Rozier or Hunter or Mickey, it could be one of the numerous mid-first picks we have this year. If even one of them comes good, we're back on the road to relevance.

I know that all of these middling picks aren't worth a whole lot in trading terms, but put them all together and it would take an extraordinary amount of bad luck for us to not end up with at least one building block. It takes a lot of time and a bit of luck, but so does every other way of rebuilding in the NBA.

[Greenbean]

It's tough to argue with aything you said. Can I assume you are in favor tanking to improve the odds of hitting on draft picks?

[dark_lord]

unfortunately, we need more than one player to hit

[oldtype]

It's tough to argue with aything you said. Can I assume you are in favor tanking to improve the odds of hitting on draft picks?

Within reason. I don't know if we can feasibly  tank right now without burning assets (Bradley, Thomas, Stevens) that I'd rather keep.

Part of the point is that in lieu of tanking, hoarding middling draft picks is an alternative way to "hit" on a big player. Rolling a six once on six die rolls is easier than flipping a coin once and having it come up heads.

[droopdog7]

It's tough to argue with aything you said. Can I assume you are in favor tanking to improve the odds of hitting on draft picks?

I'm not sure that is what he is saying at all.  Seems to me he is just saying that the good teams also got lucky somewhere along the line.  Seems to me we have yet to get lucky.

Rather than tanking, I think more in terms of the draft picks we have in line.  While it may be impractical to draft all those guys, doing so also increases the odds that we in fact, hit on one or two.

[MetroGlobe]

I agree with OP.  That is how we got out of this quagmire in the past.  First with Paul Pierce, who was the 10th overall pick but who became a foundational player across 3 generations* or "eras" of modern Celtics teams.

The second time was Al Jefferson, who was the 9th overall pick and had morphed into an 18 & 10 guy.  He was the cornerstone of the KG trade.  Without this player as an asset, there was no chance we land KG.

* I'm referring to The ECF-Antoine Walker Era, The Dreaded Risky Davis-Mark Blount Era, and the Ubuntu-KG Era.

[Greenbean]

It's tough to argue with aything you said. Can I assume you are in favor tanking to improve the odds of hitting on draft picks?

I'm not sure that is what he is saying at all.  Seems to me he is just saying that the good teams also got lucky somewhere along the line.  Seems to me we have yet to get lucky.

Rather than tanking, I think more in terms of the draft picks we have in line.  While it may be impractical to draft all those guys, doing so also increases the odds that we in fact, hit on one or two.

No I know thats not what he is saying. I actually 100% agree with the OP. I just wrestle with thinking this way and realizing that the odds would go up if we just Phillied it and tanked every year.

After weighing all the pros and cons I always land on thinking trying to win and develop players as quickly as possible is the way to go.

[PhoSita]

At this point, the only path I see to contention is one or more of the mid-to-late 1st round picks (or perhaps Smart) turning into an All-Star, Ainge acquiring a star via trade, and a star free agent subsequently joining the team once the first two are in place.


I have to say, part of me is thrilled that the team seems intent on putting together a reasonably competitive group sooner rather than later.  That's the part of me that wants to watch the Celtics play every single day, and always wants to see them win, even if it's summer league.


Another part of me wants the team to build something that's actually really good and not just decent and entertaining.  I want to see them secure a core group that can stick around for a long time and win 50+ games numerous times over 8-10 years and give us some really deep playoff runs, not just some respectable seasons.

That part of me is pretty dubious of the way things seem to be headed.

[TheFlex]

Well, the Jazz also have Hayward and Derrick Favors, two players also superior to anyone on our team, but overall you make a good point.

I'm very high on Smart, but in terms of top level prospects materializing out of non-lotto picks, I think Sullinger is our best bet of the guys we have that could come out of nowhere (again, because we expect Smart to be at least a very good player). If Sullinger drops weight his injury risk will be less of a concern and he should be able to compete at the highest level for a longer duration of individual games. When Sullinger is healthy and has his breath, he's a player with All-Star potential. Ensuring he has both his health and conditioning is key to his future.

[Celtics4ever]

Drafting well always helps a team.   I love Ainge as a GM, but this is easily his worse area as a GM.   That doesn't mean that he is a bad GM by any means.

I think Sullinger is our best bet of the guys we have that could come out of nowhere

So many if, he has talent, need to get in shape and see what he can do.   I still think he will struggle due to his finite athletic talent.   I wonder if Ainge is not going to get rid of him.   He was shopped around some already.  We can't play Lee and him together and Lee is argubly the better of the two.   Their D together would be horrible.

If Sullinger drops weight his injury risk will be less of a concern and he should be able to compete at the highest level for a longer duration of individual games. When Sullinger is healthy and has his breath, he's a player with All-Star potential. Ensuring he has both his health and conditioning is key to his future.

Again, I would point you to his defense, which is sub D league in quality.  He is an all star level rebounder but his shooting is pretty wretched when compared to other All Star forwards.  Please look at Opponent Counterpart 48-Minute Production here:

http://www.82games.com/1415/14BOS19.HTM

But I agree, he has the biggest chance to be a hit and the biggest chance to be a bust both at the same time.

[Robb]

I agree with OP.  That is how we got out of this quagmire in the past.  First with Paul Pierce, who was the 10th overall pick but who became a foundational player across 3 generations* or "eras" of modern Celtics teams.

The second time was Al Jefferson, who was the 9th overall pick and had morphed into an 18 & 10 guy.  He was the cornerstone of the KG trade.  Without this player as an asset, there was no chance we land KG.

* I'm referring to The ECF-Antoine Walker Era, The Dreaded Risky Davis-Mark Blount Era, and the Ubuntu-KG Era.

True and all except Big Al was the 15th. I'm picking nits I know.

[GreenWarrior]

yup, just one player.

unfortunately the one player we need is a superstar and that's most difficult player to get. 'like a good qb in the NFL...

[Boris Badenov]

The Jazz started their rebuild with Deron Williams, an All-NBA talent they were able to move for a #3 pick (Favors), another #3 (Kanter) and a pick they used to draft Trey Burke in the top 10.

We are pretty far away from having such an option right now.

[PhoSita]

Indiana is probably our best case scenario --- draft some above average starters in the middle of the first round and find a superstar at the back of the lottery, then sign an impact veteran free agent or two.

[Big333223]

The Jazz started their rebuild with Deron Williams, an All-NBA talent they were able to move for a #3 pick (Favors), another #3 (Kanter) and a pick they used to draft Trey Burke in the top 10.

We are pretty far away from having such an option right now.

While that's true, the Celtics' rebuild started with sending our Pierce/KG and we've still got two brooklyn picks (and a sawp) yet to convey. If one of those picks winds up high, we're in business.