All we need is for one player to hit

[Ilikesports17]

The difference between us and Jazz is that they given their players minutes to develop and learn the game. As a organization we just suck at developing players and Danny Ainge sucks at drafting players. He kept going at the same type of player and keep on missing.

Young got sent to the D-League, which is night and day from the NBA experience.

Olynk played sparingly which is largely due he's part of getting into foul trouble and Stevens trying to micro manage everyone

Agreed -- I'm frustrated at how the Celtics organization has developed their young players over last couple of seasons and it looks like it is going to continue to be a problem over next few years as well.

Utah have done a great job of developing their young talent recently. Having an ex-Spurs man like Dennis Lindsey has helped them no doubt. Patience and believe in the process.

But but ... agreeing with this would require us to acknowledge that maybe the Celts aren't as exceptionally well-run and coached as we like to believe.  If we don't have that to feel superior about, what do we have?

I don't see why it's necessary to believe that the Celtics are not as well run because another team found what's working for them. Utah has their own method, Boston has theirs and I think they're doing a good job so far.

I think it's too early to give up on te brad Stevens celtics in terms of player development

[Rondo9]

Especially when he's doing a good job.

[merkins]

What players have the Celtics not developed to expectations?

They turned Kendrick Perkins from a tall kid without a single recognizeable NBA skill into the starting center on a championship team (and two other Finals teams).

Avery Bradley was a 19th overall pick who has turned into all defensive 2nd teamer.

Rondo was a 21st overall pick who had 2 top ten finishes in MVP voting while in Boston.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick and made the rookie 2nd team.

So beause Jared Sullinger (21st pick) and Kelly Olynyk (13th pick in a terrible draft) aren't all stars yet, the Celtics are bad at developing talent?

You dont make a very convincing case by showing 4 picks going back 12 YEARS (Perkins) that you could make the case have met expectations.  Perk and Rondo played along side the big 3 and you could argue they had as much impact on their success than any coaching.  See how poorly they've done since those days.  The other 2 guys have made second NBA teams, big deal.  Big Al and Tony Allen have had their moments but our drafts are littered with bad players.  We have been average in player development.

[Big333223]

What players have the Celtics not developed to expectations?

They turned Kendrick Perkins from a tall kid without a single recognizeable NBA skill into the starting center on a championship team (and two other Finals teams).

Avery Bradley was a 19th overall pick who has turned into all defensive 2nd teamer.

Rondo was a 21st overall pick who had 2 top ten finishes in MVP voting while in Boston.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick and made the rookie 2nd team.

So beause Jared Sullinger (21st pick) and Kelly Olynyk (13th pick in a terrible draft) aren't all stars yet, the Celtics are bad at developing talent?

You dont make a very convincing case by showing 4 picks going back 12 YEARS (Perkins) that you could make the case have met expectations.  Perk and Rondo played along side the big 3 and you could argue they had as much impact on their success than any coaching.  See how poorly they've done since those days.  The other 2 guys have made second NBA teams, big deal.  Big Al and Tony Allen have had their moments but our drafts are littered with bad players.  We have been average in player development.

So give me a counter example. Name one player the Celtics drafted under Ainge who they didn't develop at least to expectations.

[Ilikesports17]

What players have the Celtics not developed to expectations?

They turned Kendrick Perkins from a tall kid without a single recognizeable NBA skill into the starting center on a championship team (and two other Finals teams).

Avery Bradley was a 19th overall pick who has turned into all defensive 2nd teamer.

Rondo was a 21st overall pick who had 2 top ten finishes in MVP voting while in Boston.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick and made the rookie 2nd team.

So beause Jared Sullinger (21st pick) and Kelly Olynyk (13th pick in a terrible draft) aren't all stars yet, the Celtics are bad at developing talent?

You dont make a very convincing case by showing 4 picks going back 12 YEARS (Perkins) that you could make the case have met expectations.  Perk and Rondo played along side the big 3 and you could argue they had as much impact on their success than any coaching.  See how poorly they've done since those days.  The other 2 guys have made second NBA teams, big deal.  Big Al and Tony Allen have had their moments but our drafts are littered with bad players.  We have been average in player development.

So give me a counter example. Name one player the Celtics drafted under Ainge who they didn't develop at least to expectations.

Fab melo
Jajuan johnson
JR Giddens

[Big333223]

What players have the Celtics not developed to expectations?

They turned Kendrick Perkins from a tall kid without a single recognizeable NBA skill into the starting center on a championship team (and two other Finals teams).

Avery Bradley was a 19th overall pick who has turned into all defensive 2nd teamer.

Rondo was a 21st overall pick who had 2 top ten finishes in MVP voting while in Boston.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick and made the rookie 2nd team.

So beause Jared Sullinger (21st pick) and Kelly Olynyk (13th pick in a terrible draft) aren't all stars yet, the Celtics are bad at developing talent?

You dont make a very convincing case by showing 4 picks going back 12 YEARS (Perkins) that you could make the case have met expectations.  Perk and Rondo played along side the big 3 and you could argue they had as much impact on their success than any coaching.  See how poorly they've done since those days.  The other 2 guys have made second NBA teams, big deal.  Big Al and Tony Allen have had their moments but our drafts are littered with bad players.  We have been average in player development.

So give me a counter example. Name one player the Celtics drafted under Ainge who they didn't develop at least to expectations.

Fab melo
Jajuan johnson
JR Giddens

All 3 of those guys were late first rounders and not one of them played even 40 pro games. The Celtics' ability to draft isn't what we're talking about. We're talking about developing players. You can't develop a guy with no talent.

Or are you saying that if only we'd played Fab Melo more, he'd be a terrific player today?

[Smokeeye123]

So let me get this straight. If the Celtics draft a player and he turns out to be really good we are great at developing players.

If we draft someone and who stinks it up like Jajuan Johnson or Fab it's because they have zero skill and not a negative reflection on us developing them.

Flawless logic.

[BDeCosta26]

What players have the Celtics not developed to expectations?

They turned Kendrick Perkins from a tall kid without a single recognizeable NBA skill into the starting center on a championship team (and two other Finals teams).

Avery Bradley was a 19th overall pick who has turned into all defensive 2nd teamer.

Rondo was a 21st overall pick who had 2 top ten finishes in MVP voting while in Boston.

Marcus Smart was the #6 pick and made the rookie 2nd team.

So beause Jared Sullinger (21st pick) and Kelly Olynyk (13th pick in a terrible draft) aren't all stars yet, the Celtics are bad at developing talent?

You dont make a very convincing case by showing 4 picks going back 12 YEARS (Perkins) that you could make the case have met expectations.  Perk and Rondo played along side the big 3 and you could argue they had as much impact on their success than any coaching.  See how poorly they've done since those days.  The other 2 guys have made second NBA teams, big deal.  Big Al and Tony Allen have had their moments but our drafts are littered with bad players.  We have been average in player development.

So give me a counter example. Name one player the Celtics drafted under Ainge who they didn't develop at least to expectations.

This is when they start pulling names like Fab Melo and JaJuan Johnson out of the hat.

Melo was drafted #22. When you draft someone in the high teens-low twenties they're should be a reasonable expectation that they're gonna carve out some kind of role on your team within a few years. By that measure, he failed. When you start getting into the 28-39 range, you should have almost no expectations and the late 2nd round picks forget about it.

One of the big reasons we are in this spot of being "too good to tank" is because Ainge has, on the whole, drafted well throughout his tenure. Jefferson, Tony Allen, Rondo, Bradley, Sullinger, Gerald Green, Baby Davis, KO, Perkins, Smart, Leon Powe, Ryan Gomes. Smart is the only top-10 pick in that group. He's had his share of misses, but relative to draft position Ainge had drafted fairly well.

Has a habit of drafting picking undersized PF's. And relative to positioning, I'd like to see him go for more up-side guys who, if put in the right situation, can really excel. James Young was that kind of pick at 17. Let's see how that turns out.

[obnoxiousmime]

The Jazz have a better collection of talent than the Celtics because their players have higher ceilings. A lot of them besides Gobert were taken with picks in the lottery, and while they don't have a bonafide superstar you can bet guys like Exum, Hayward, and Favors have much more value across the league than Sullinger, Smart, Olynyk, these types.

They could do it because 1) they got a good deal for Deron Williams who was traded in his prime and 2) they were willing to be really bad and 3) the Western Conference helps them be bad when their talent level is higher.

Last year's draft the Celts and Utah ended up with the same record and the Celts lost the coin flip and ended up picking sixth. If they had played balanced schedules Utah would have certainly had more wins. The difference of one pick can sometimes be significant, in this case it ended up being the difference of Smart vs. Exum. Smart might be a pretty good player, but most GMs would value Exum more because of his higher ceiling and better measurables.

I agree that Ainge does need to hit big on one of these mid-late draft picks eventually, but obviously it's very difficult to find impact players past the lottery. Now that HS players are no longer allowed to jump directly to the pros it's harder to find high-ceiling but hard-to-evaluate prep guys falling until later in the draft. Ainge has also not tapped the Euro market of big men either due to prejudice or circumstance. While the American big man is becoming more and more endangered, there are still European big men who fit the traditional definition of center available each or every other year.

In closing, it's hard to blame Ainge for any of the moves he's made or judge his overall record too harshly. Generally, he's had a solid draft record and his trades have mostly been logical and defensible. However, if you're not willing to totally tank then you're really putting pressure on yourself to hit it big with some of these mid-to-late round picks. Otherwise, it won't matter if a superstar becomes available because nobody wants a pu pu platter of B- role players in return.

[oldtype]

The Jazz have a better collection of talent than the Celtics because their players have higher ceilings. A lot of them besides Gobert were taken with picks in the lottery, and while they don't have a bonafide superstar you can bet guys like Exum, Hayward, and Favors have much more value across the league than Sullinger, Smart, Olynyk, these types.

They could do it because 1) they got a good deal for Deron Williams who was traded in his prime and 2) they were willing to be really bad and 3) the Western Conference helps them be bad when their talent level is higher.

Last year's draft the Celts and Utah ended up with the same record and the Celts lost the coin flip and ended up picking sixth. If they had played balanced schedules Utah would have certainly had more wins. The difference of one pick can sometimes be significant, in this case it ended up being the difference of Smart vs. Exum. Smart might be a pretty good player, but most GMs would value Exum more because of his higher ceiling and better measurables.

I agree that Ainge does need to hit big on one of these mid-late draft picks eventually, but obviously it's very difficult to find impact players past the lottery. Now that HS players are no longer allowed to jump directly to the pros it's harder to find high-ceiling but hard-to-evaluate prep guys falling until later in the draft. Ainge has also not tapped the Euro market of big men either due to prejudice or circumstance. While the American big man is becoming more and more endangered, there are still European big men who fit the traditional definition of center available each or every other year.

In closing, it's hard to blame Ainge for any of the moves he's made or judge his overall record too harshly. Generally, he's had a solid draft record and his trades have mostly been logical and defensible. However, if you're not willing to totally tank then you're really putting pressure on yourself to hit it big with some of these mid-to-late round picks. Otherwise, it won't matter if a superstar becomes available because nobody wants a pu pu platter of B- role players in return.

Why on Earth is Exum valued higher than Smart? They were exactly two picks away from each other, so it's not like Exum was a much higher-rated prospect to begin with. Smart had a decent Rookie season starting for a playoff team, Exum got significant playing time and posted James Young-esque per-36 numbers. (To be fair to Exum, he's about 1.5 years younger.) Smart has already proven that he is not a compete liability at the NBA-level, so his floor is at least a passable rotation player. Exum has proven exactly nothing.

Aside from the massive assumption that Smart will never improve beyond what he was last season, why would anyone value Exum higher in a trade?

[obnoxiousmime]

The Jazz have a better collection of talent than the Celtics because their players have higher ceilings. A lot of them besides Gobert were taken with picks in the lottery, and while they don't have a bonafide superstar you can bet guys like Exum, Hayward, and Favors have much more value across the league than Sullinger, Smart, Olynyk, these types.

They could do it because 1) they got a good deal for Deron Williams who was traded in his prime and 2) they were willing to be really bad and 3) the Western Conference helps them be bad when their talent level is higher.

Last year's draft the Celts and Utah ended up with the same record and the Celts lost the coin flip and ended up picking sixth. If they had played balanced schedules Utah would have certainly had more wins. The difference of one pick can sometimes be significant, in this case it ended up being the difference of Smart vs. Exum. Smart might be a pretty good player, but most GMs would value Exum more because of his higher ceiling and better measurables.

I agree that Ainge does need to hit big on one of these mid-late draft picks eventually, but obviously it's very difficult to find impact players past the lottery. Now that HS players are no longer allowed to jump directly to the pros it's harder to find high-ceiling but hard-to-evaluate prep guys falling until later in the draft. Ainge has also not tapped the Euro market of big men either due to prejudice or circumstance. While the American big man is becoming more and more endangered, there are still European big men who fit the traditional definition of center available each or every other year.

In closing, it's hard to blame Ainge for any of the moves he's made or judge his overall record too harshly. Generally, he's had a solid draft record and his trades have mostly been logical and defensible. However, if you're not willing to totally tank then you're really putting pressure on yourself to hit it big with some of these mid-to-late round picks. Otherwise, it won't matter if a superstar becomes available because nobody wants a pu pu platter of B- role players in return.

Why on Earth is Exum valued higher than Smart? They were exactly two picks away from each other, so it's not like Exum was a much higher-rated prospect to begin with. Smart had a decent Rookie season starting for a playoff team, Exum got significant playing time and posted James Young-esque per-36 numbers. (To be fair to Exum, he's about 1.5 years younger.) Smart has already proven that he is not a compete liability at the NBA-level, so his floor is at least a passable rotation player. Exum has proven exactly nothing.

Aside from the massive assumption that Smart will never improve beyond what he was last season, why would anyone value Exum higher in a trade?

Exum was definitely higher rated and continues to be more desired around the league as an asset. The fact that they were only one pick apart is meaningless, because it's not like if you put the top 30 players in a graph of pick number and actual skill level it would be a straight diagonal line. There are tiers of players with higher ceilings and sometimes your pick may fall right outside of that tier.

If there are 4 players with star talent and you have pick number 5, the difference between 4 and 5 is great. The difference between 3 and 4 is much less in that situation.

[Celtics4ever]

Exum got the LeBron treatment the other night and it was why he played so well.   In replay those were often phantom fouls.  Same could be said of Smart.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Melo was drafted #22. When you draft someone in the high teens-low twenties they're should be a reasonable expectation that they're gonna carve out some kind of role on your team within a few years. By that measure, he failed. When you start getting into the 28-39 range, you should have almost no expectations and the late 2nd round picks forget about it.

I like this quote. People expect 100% when hyped first overall picks bust.

I'd consider Houston good at identifying talent and developing talent. They got a Royce White and a Jeremy Lamb.

So let me get this straight. If the Celtics draft a player and he turns out to be really good we are great at developing players.

If we draft someone and who stinks it up like Jajuan Johnson or Fab it's because they have zero skill and not a negative reflection on us developing them.

Flawless logic.

I'd say I'm a bit of an anti-Doc guy when it comes to talent evaluation. I'm pretty happy to get some vindication with Doc's current festering mess of a bench. Not only does Doc play a role in player development, he is also said to have played a role in DA's talent selection process.

---

So, with the hiring of Brad, we start afresh.

I'll throw some significant names in the hat. But here, we consider overall talent evaluation and development:
- Courtney Lee - point for team Brad+Dan
- Evan Turner - point for
- Jordan Crawford - point for
- Phil Pressey - point for
- James Young - point against - so far? (Inconclusive)

Then you got a bunch of names like Jerryd Bayless, Brandon Bass, Jae Crow, Tyler Zeller, Jerebko. At the very least I'd consider it value preservation. But this is somewhat of a testament to DA's talent valuation. In addition, those guys have improved certain aspects of their game, though you could point to various other circumstances and, in certain cases, the improvement can be considered negligible (Jerryd Bayless would be my pick for negligible.)

Consider the draft. In the Stevens/Dan era, there has not been a bust yet. But, of course, this could very well be because of our status as a talent deprived team. Though I think the case could be made for a Pop-like effect coming from Brad Stevens (that I don't think Budenholzer or any of the other Pop clones have been able to replicate quite as well).

So far, I'd say we have looked good as far as talent development goes with Brad and Dan at the helm.

Those are my highly disorganized two cents.

[Hemingway]

How good a team is at player development is really hard to quantify. To start with the sample size is so small, even over a decade you are likely developing less than 50 guys. The other thing to consider is to what extent the fault is with the player. Some guys are just never going to put it all together; I don't see why the bar should be so high.

To the OP, yeah we do need someone to hit or step up. Smart and Crowder are our two best chances.

[Who]

I think the team does a good job developing players. It just is not as high a priority as I thought (or hoped) it would be for the team.

There is a more immediate desire to have win-now veterans / low cost high value acquisitions in place (like David Lee) with developing youth falling in behind that. Developing guys is still of importance to the team. It's just not the first priority. That is okay. It just a different type of rebuild. Ainge can still build a new title-contender going down this road. He isn't giving up long term assets to make most of these moves so he is still retaining the cap flexibility and trade assets he needs to make that larger move at some point down the line.

So long as that is true, I am happy enough with his plan (rebuilding wise) going forward.