Steve Bulpett: Next year's team could be worse than this years

[snively]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

[Tr1boy]

Imo Danny is not going to succeed in bringing in FAs or making a trade  this offseason. Plus there has been little to no rumors that players are available via trade market. The ones that are like deron williams, nobody really wants

Danny will make move via this upcoming trade deadline  to next offseason. That is a more likely possibility imo

I'd be okay with the slow growth if Danny can at least sign Koufos and swing a good swingman.

If your Koufus ,why would you want to sign with the Celts?

Unless you are locked to start (not automatic) and /or paid good money (cant see Danny overpaying)

[Evantime34]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

I could see the C's letting some vets go but I don't think Crowder will be one of them. The stories of Thomas being consulted on free agents makes it seem unlikely they deal him. I think they could deal Turner and have his production made up by increased production from Smart, Crowder and Young.

Payton and Walker were both starters. Getting rid of Bass and Gigi certainly won't be as big a blow as getting rid of those two.

The Knicks are a half season from half decency AND a jettisoning of pretty much their entire roster. They have like 3 NBA players on their team now. Their best players are going to be an unproven draft pick and a player coming off a major injury.

The Heat's best player is unsigned, and their second best player is coming off heart surgery, not sure they are a near lock to be better (do you think Dragic is a lock to stay if they don't bring back Wade?). Not scared of Detroit or Charlotte.

I could see us getting worse next year, but for that to happen I think it will take an injury.

[bopna]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

Its silly and even far fetched to think that Danny blows this team up should we miss out on Love, LMA, Deandre, Gasol etc.

If so Danny needs to be fired, the guy just traded for IT and knew we were goin to improve, he didn't anticipate a dance with the Cavs in the first round but surely he knew the risk was our lottery position would drop. Again the sky ain't fallin if we missed out on the top free agents.

I actually believe that without any changes in the line up, we fight the Raptors for the Titanic Division which IMO is very achievable. The Raptors have reached their peak while this team is just scratchin the surface of what they can achieve.

[JohnBoy65]

Danny has said the Celtics need to build through trades and free agency, not the draft. If he blows this team up how would we be any closer to acquiring anyone in free agency. Also, as people have said, if he blows this team up it was pretty to waste a pick on IT. We don't need him if we're blowing up the team.
I just don't see the positives to him breaking this core up. I don't really expect to see Bass back here next year and probably not GiGi, that's as much 'blowing up' as I can see.

[Kuberski33]

Really think people get way too wrapped up in which 'max' free agent is coming here.  The only way they're getting a max guy is if they overpay someone who isn't a max guy talent wise and just get him because they're willing to give the guy more than anyone else.  Given Danny's track record that's definitely not happening. 

They could definitely take a step back.  But that's because the hard part of the rebuild is about to begin.  They've accumulated some assets, but now they need to play their cards right -- and hope they get lucky and get someone here who (eventually) can make a difference in the playoffs.

Which is what I can't stand about the NBA's business model.

[Quetzalcoatl]

The problem is that our coach is a superstar but none of our players are.

[snively]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

Its silly and even far fetched to think that Danny blows this team up should we miss out on Love, LMA, Deandre, Gasol etc.

If so Danny needs to be fired, the guy just traded for IT and knew we were goin to improve, he didn't anticipate a dance with the Cavs in the first round but surely he knew the risk was our lottery position would drop. Again the sky ain't fallin if we missed out on the top free agents.

How far-fetched is it when he's done it before?  Again, the 2004/2005 Celtics were his own creation.  Nobody made him trade for Gary Payton and Antoine Walker and make a playoff run in the middle of a rebuild. And no sooner had they been booted from the first round than Danny booted them both.

Thomas was a great get in that he's very affordable, a good 6th man on a good team and guys that we're after (Love, Cousins) seem to like him.  Making the playoffs with a youngish core was nice in that it potentially makes us attractive to youngish stars that want to win now.  It also had the side benefit of getting the coach some buzz as a coach of the year (with some indirect buzz for Danny for hiring him).

But if all that doesn't yield some free agent fruit, nothing's obligating Danny to keep on pursuing a short-term, free agent oriented strategy.  He hasn't invested all that much in it - there's the opportunity cost of the 2015 lotto pick and the Cleveland first we gave for Thomas.  And guys like Thomas and Crowder and Jerebko cease to be all that interesting to a team looking at the lottery as the surest means for adding elite talent (or elite trading assets).

[snively]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

I could see the C's letting some vets go but I don't think Crowder will be one of them. The stories of Thomas being consulted on free agents makes it seem unlikely they deal him. I think they could deal Turner and have his production made up by increased production from Smart, Crowder and Young.

Payton and Walker were both starters. Getting rid of Bass and Gigi certainly won't be as big a blow as getting rid of those two.

The Knicks are a half season from half decency AND a jettisoning of pretty much their entire roster. They have like 3 NBA players on their team now. Their best players are going to be an unproven draft pick and a player coming off a major injury.

The Heat's best player is unsigned, and their second best player is coming off heart surgery, not sure they are a near lock to be better (do you think Dragic is a lock to stay if they don't bring back Wade?). Not scared of Detroit or Charlotte.

I could see us getting worse next year, but for that to happen I think it will take an injury.

Thomas is being consulted about free agents because they hope he will help draw them in. 

And let's not forget who our GM is.  Rondo got traded less than a half-season after being the lead recruiter on Kevin Love.  Marcus Smart went from Love trade chip to core piece.  Pierce and KG got traded the year after we splurged on a supporting cast intended for them.  Doc Rivers got traded after we almost let him talk us into trading up to draft his kid.

[PaulAllen]

I love this article because Bulpett is always wrong...

[PhoSita]

Look, I'll be the first to admit it's entirely possible the team could win MORE games next year if they head into next year with substantially the same roster. 

It's not just entirely possible, it's more likely than not.

You ask things like why people are "certain" that we'll be better. Sure, I said definitively that we "won't" be worse, just like many of those that agree with your point of view say definitively that we "won't" get Love. Everyone agrees there is an existent albeit slim chance of landing Love, but it is "slim" that is the key word which makes such absoluteness excusable.

In other words, there is a chance that 5-6 of our best young guys look worse than they did last year, but the chances of such an outcome don't seem significant enough to me to even inject it as an alarming possibility into the conversation.

Knowing the NBA as you obviously do, I'm just not sure why you bristle so aggressively at the idea that the Celtics, without major changes to upgrade the roster, could win fewer games next year. 

Unless you really think that dumping Rondo and Green and adding Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder to the roster was really enough to make this a sure-thing 45-50 win roster moving forward, as opposed to the 25-30 win underachiever it was with those guys in featured roles.


You've argued that it's irrational to believe that more or less the same group of players, minus a few veterans, could be a worse team (record-wise) next year than this past season.

While I can see that point of view -- you have a young team, young players have a tendency to get better over time, and the team posted a much better record in the second half of this season compared to the first half -- I don't think it jives with the way things tend to go in the NBA.


If you believe, as I do, that much of the success of the Celtics over the second half of this season was due to:

(1) opponents' lack of familiarity with this group,

(2) opponents' lack of effort or interest in winning games compared to the Celtics, looking to make a playoff push, and

(3) the fact that many of the players on the Celtics were eager to prove their worth, because they were in a contract year or because they had just gotten dumped by the team that originally signed them

then it doesn't seem so unreasonable to suggest that if the team lets go of Bass, Jerebko, and Crowder and replaces them with inexperienced, unproven, underdeveloped young players, that the team might be worse.


This attitude that the young Celtics will almost certainly improve and build on their run to the seventh seed tends to disregard the reality that almost every other team in the conference intends, and even expects, to improve next season, as well.  All it takes is for a few veteran teams that fell off this past season -- e.g. Heat, Hornets, and Pacers -- to return to form and suddenly the Celts are on the outside looking in, again.


There are any number of factors that can go into a team succeeding or failing in the regular season.  We could simulate this past season with the roster the Celtics had in the playoffs and the win totals could vary wildly, from 25 to 50.  The young guys on this team could improve next year, Brad Stevens could continue to do a great job as a coach, and this team could play at or near the same level as they did in March and April of this season, and the Celts could still win up with 5-10 fewer wins than last year.

[celticsclay]

It's a very reasonable prospect. 

If we miss out on signing premiere free agents, chances are Danny's going to want to get worse.

And it won't be that hard to do.  Remember Danny took a 45 win team of his own construction in 2005 and reduced it to a 33 win squad simply by letting free agents go and replacing them with unproven young guys - we ditched Payton and Walker (and then traded Blount and Ricky) and replaced them with Delonte, Gomes, Perk and Orien Greene.

Letting Jerebko and Crowder go and giving James Young and an incoming rook their minutes would be a pretty big blow.  Follow it up with a Turner salary dump and an Isaiah Thomas for draft pick trade and you've got a contender for sub 30 wins.

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

I could see the C's letting some vets go but I don't think Crowder will be one of them. The stories of Thomas being consulted on free agents makes it seem unlikely they deal him. I think they could deal Turner and have his production made up by increased production from Smart, Crowder and Young.

Payton and Walker were both starters. Getting rid of Bass and Gigi certainly won't be as big a blow as getting rid of those two.

The Knicks are a half season from half decency AND a jettisoning of pretty much their entire roster. They have like 3 NBA players on their team now. Their best players are going to be an unproven draft pick and a player coming off a major injury.

The Heat's best player is unsigned, and their second best player is coming off heart surgery, not sure they are a near lock to be better (do you think Dragic is a lock to stay if they don't bring back Wade?). Not scared of Detroit or Charlotte.

I could see us getting worse next year, but for that to happen I think it will take an injury.

Thomas is being consulted about free agents because they hope he will help draw them in. 

And let's not forget who our GM is.  Rondo got traded less than a half-season after being the lead recruiter on Kevin Love. Marcus Smart went from Love trade chip to core piece.  Pierce and KG got traded the year after we splurged on a supporting cast intended for them.  Doc Rivers got traded after we almost let him talk us into trading up to draft his kid.

I don't think this is true at all unless I missed a story. Rondo shook hands with Love at a baseball game and the photo went viral, but everything I read about it indicates they only met for about a minute. I also don't recall any stories where Ainge said he would consult with Rondo on who to sign. If anything it was just frequent trade rumors about them that Danny only occasionally diffused. Very different than the recent story with Thomas that came out unprompted.

[PhoSita]

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

I think this is a point worth reiterating.

What I think is going on here, a little bit, is that fans always see their team as the "protagonist," focusing intently on the ways in which their team is going to improve and scrap and fight to get ahead, while treating other teams in the conference as faceless bad guys whose destiny it is to ultimately fall before the good guys, their hometown squad.

Guess, what?  Calling the East a "joke" is both accurate and also an indictment of where our franchise is at right now as much as it is a jab at teams like the Hornets, Nets, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, and so on.

Who's to say the Celts don't get a dose of the injury bug and watch the shine come off their young coach and scrappy team of role players, while the Magic become the darlings of every underdog article next year, with Skiles at the helm writing his third or fourth coaching redemption tale?

[chambers]

I think it's very possible we could finish 10th-12th in the East next year.
We overachieved this season with a brilliant coach, a poor Eastern conference and the acquisition of IT, Zeller and Crowder. Even Ainge said they didn't expect to have such a good run.

If we lose Bass, Crowder and trade Evan Turner for a 2nd round pick, replacing him with a rookie, then we're hurting for a veteran presence.
Avery Bradley's contract is very tradeable, and he'll be getting calls about first round picks for sure.

I could easily see us drafting 2-3 guys, letting James Young get some serious minutes on the floor too.

What's most important here, besides losing Bass and potentially Crowder, is that the East will be stronger than last season. Yeah the conference is weak, but the East was crushed with injuries this season.
You've got to think that the following teams are at least 5-10 wins better this season than last season:

Pacers (Paul George back)
Miami (Bosh, Dragic, Whiteside, Wade)
Pistons (Reggie Jackson)
Bobcats (couldn't have had a worse season with Lance and then Vonleh, Walker getting injured)
New York (Carmelo returns from injury, #4 pick can be traded for proven player, cap space for 2 max players)

Even the Nets had a resurgence at the end of the season with Thadeus Young and Lopez coming back.
We finished above all those teams last season and the only team above us that I can see significantly regressing is potentially Toronto if they blow it up. They could just stand pat and hope to add a free agent too.

That's three to six teams that could easily be better than us in the East.
With no Bass, Crowder leaving for $$$, we are losing some serious veteran presence on the court. You've also got to assume that Ainge will shop Turner before his deal expires, ala Jordan Crawford- I can't really see any other reason why Ainge signed Turner other than you renovate and flip him on his good deal.

Would not be surprised if we finish bottom 4 or 5 in the East.
Good signs for us are that Marcus Smart will be healthy, Sully will have lost a tonne of weight in a contract year, and James Young will have had a season under his belt, with an offseason to work on his game.

Or we could get Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan. Fingers crossed.

The (unsubstantiated) argument is that we'll be worse next year if the roster stays the same, not if Danny deliberately tanks and trades our established players for picks.

Quick sidenote: if Danny traded ET for a 2nd rounder, it'd be a terrible move.

Well Bass will be gone, and there's a better chance that someone overpays Crowder than us keeping him.
So combining those factors (even if Crowder stays), means we lose a key big man in Bass, while the rest of the East gets significantly better.

Re: Evan Turner,  I don't see us getting much more than a 2nd rounder for him. Considering that early 2nd rounders have the value of non guaranteed contracts, a lot of GM'S would view them more valuable than a late first.
Can't see us getting anything higher than say the 22nd or 23rd pick for him and he's not a long term solution for our team.
Would rather get something for him before he walks at the end of the year.

[celticsclay]

And even if we don't sabotage ourselves, it's not like the East is sitting on its laurels.  The Magic just hired Scott Skiles - a guy who does a great job of propelling young teams into the playoffs.  The Knicks are only a season removed from half-decency and they'll have a lot more to play with this year.  The Pacers and Heat are near-locks to be better.  And even Detroit and Charlotte are capable of overtaking us.

I think this is a point worth reiterating.

What I think is going on here, a little bit, is that fans always see their team as the "protagonist," focusing intently on the ways in which their team is going to improve and scrap and fight to get ahead, while treating other teams in the conference as faceless bad guys whose destiny it is to ultimately fall before the good guys, their hometown squad.

Guess, what?  Calling the East a "joke" is both accurate and also an indictment of where our franchise is at right now as much as it is a jab at teams like the Hornets, Nets, Sixers, Magic, Knicks, and so on.

Whose to say the Celts don't get a dose of the injury bug and watch the shine come off their young coach and scrappy team of role players, while the Magic become the darlings of every underdog article next year, with Skiles at the helm writing his third or fourth coaching redemption tale?

I don't think what you are saying is unfair. I think that it is really easy to dismiss a team like Orlando that is probably poised to improve their number of wins more than team in the conference. However, I also think by the same token, people do this with the good teams too. They assume that the good teams will just stay good and don't notice when these teams are showing serious signs of regression or a chance of complete implosion. The Nets (very fortunately for us) could be a major implosion candidate. Two of their starters are ancient by NBA standards, and they have a legitmate chance of losing at least one starter (either Lopzez or Young) through free agency. They also just came off a year in which they were really healthy. Furthermore, their roster really does not have a lot of guys that seem poised to make the leap to NBA starter level player. Plumlee is a good defensive player, but a complete liability on offense, particularly the free throw line, to the point they couldn't even play him in the playoffs. Players like Markel Brown could be ok, but he is far from a blue chip lottery player. This is all on a team that finished ahead of us and still picks at the end of the first round.

Another team to think about it Toronto. Coming off another really disappointing first round series where they performed even worse than last year it seems like they may blow it up. They could be another candidate for regression.

Even a seemingly young team like Charlotte has a of question marks. Despite being lottery picks players like Zeller, Henderson and Vonleh have had disappointing starts to their young careers. Their best player, Jefferson, seems to be increasingly battling injuries and unable to finish a season. He also has a ton of miles on him at this point despite only being 30. Yes, Bismack, Zeller, Kemba, Vonley and MKG could all make a leap, but I don't think there is any more reason to believe in them making a leap more than KO, Smart or Sullinger (maybe even young).

Overall my point is I agree other teams can be overlooked. However, this goes both ways. We don't think about the teams that are going to improve, but we also don't think about the teams that will do worse. We are just focused on our team, which is probably exhausting enough!