I think it's very possible we could finish 10th-12th in the East next year.
We overachieved this season with a brilliant coach, a poor Eastern conference and the acquisition of IT, Zeller and Crowder. Even Ainge said they didn't expect to have such a good run.
If we lose Bass, Crowder and trade Evan Turner for a 2nd round pick, replacing him with a rookie, then we're hurting for a veteran presence.
Avery Bradley's contract is very tradeable, and he'll be getting calls about first round picks for sure.
I could easily see us drafting 2-3 guys, letting James Young get some serious minutes on the floor too.
What's most important here, besides losing Bass and potentially Crowder, is that the East will be stronger than last season. Yeah the conference is weak, but the East was crushed with injuries this season.
You've got to think that the following teams are at least 5-10 wins better this season than last season:
Pacers (Paul George back)
Miami (Bosh, Dragic, Whiteside, Wade)
Pistons (Reggie Jackson)
Bobcats (couldn't have had a worse season with Lance and then Vonleh, Walker getting injured)
New York (Carmelo returns from injury, #4 pick can be traded for proven player, cap space for 2 max players)
Even the Nets had a resurgence at the end of the season with Thadeus Young and Lopez coming back.
We finished above all those teams last season and the only team above us that I can see significantly regressing is potentially Toronto if they blow it up. They could just stand pat and hope to add a free agent too.
That's three to six teams that could easily be better than us in the East.
With no Bass, Crowder leaving for $$$, we are losing some serious veteran presence on the court. You've also got to assume that Ainge will shop Turner before his deal expires, ala Jordan Crawford- I can't really see any other reason why Ainge signed Turner other than you renovate and flip him on his good deal.
Would not be surprised if we finish bottom 4 or 5 in the East.
Good signs for us are that Marcus Smart will be healthy, Sully will have lost a tonne of weight in a contract year, and James Young will have had a season under his belt, with an offseason to work on his game.
Or we could get Kevin Love and DeAndre Jordan. Fingers crossed.
I think it has to be put into perspective how much this team would have to fall off for them to slip to the 10-12th ranks. Losing Crowder is highly unlikely, imo, so I'm not even going to consider that in this hypothetical. He's restricted and with the cap rising next season, I wouldn't be shocked if the Celtics match any offer sheet up to 8-9 million per year. The Celtics for the last 36 games of the season went 24-12. The schedule wasn't particularly tough, but no schedule in the East is particularly tough honestly. 36 games is roughly ~41% of a full season. It's actually a fairly large sample size and not a bad representation of potential future success. That W-L is a 66.6% win percentage, which equates to a ~55 win season over the length of 82 games.
Now, I don't think the Celtics are nearly good enough to actually win 55 games over the course of a season unless Smart and one of Sullinger or Olynyk break out offensively next season, and their win percentage was likely that high because of the weakish schedule. It cannot be ignored, though. A large reason the win percentage jumped up several levels was because of Crowder's increased role, and Smart's development as a perimeter defender. Post all star break, Smart was one of the best perimeter defenders in the league by the numbers. Not just for a rookie. The inclusion of IT as a 4th quarter finisher helped the Celtics maintain all of the leads they typically let slip away earlier in the season. The combination of these two factors allowed the Celtics to basically explode and go on huge streaks of wins. It also cannot be ignored that the Celtics faced their own injury issues in that 24-12 stretch with IT out for 8 games, Sullinger out for most of it, and Olynyk hurt at the beginning of it.
For the Celtics to slip to the 10-12th ranks in the East, they would have to win around 33-35 games. That is a 40% winning percentage. The Celtics dropping from a 66% winning percentage to a 40% winning percentage is incredibly unlikely as long as the defensive core of Smart, Bradley, and Crowder are on this roster next season to go along with IT. I also don't think it is likely for them to maintain a 66% winning percentage over the course of a season (breakouts withholding). It's more likely the truth is somewhere in between which would sit this current iteration of Celtics at around ~43-47 wins.
Yes, all of those teams will be better with their injured players back and what not, but the actual results of this Celtics team cannot be ignored. The only team on your list that is unarguably better than the Celtics while healthy is the Pacers. Every other team have too many question marks about fit and chemistry to be really worried about.
Also, by taking into account the injuries of other teams and their recoveries from said injuries, it is incredibly important to make note of the roster turnover of the Celtics. 9 or 10 trades in season? 40% of the starting lineup traded away? If the Celtics had fallen off a cliff, there were plenty of excuses already built in to support why they fell off. But they didn't. They launched off like a rocket instead. It says a lot about the character of this team, and it will be important when they go through their first training camp together, which is just as important as all of those teams getting injured players back.
This team needs a talent upgrade, but I don't see them falling off a cliff next season either because I believe Ainge loves all of the players that actually allowed the Celtics to lift off and streak (Smart, Crowder, IT, Bradley). I can't see any of these 4 players going anywhere without something good in return, and again, as long as these 4 are on this team, they will continue to grind and win.
Topic: Steve Bulpett: Next year's team could be worse than this years (Read 30593 times)