Sully probably traded in a package to get a player equal-to-or-better-than Millsap. Olynyk and Zeller either backups, or also traded as part of an upgrade. Bass gone, not getting re-signed. Two birds there: Roster crunch vanishes, and more talent added.
Yeah, but I guess my point is that in 2013-14 Atlanta were pretty short handed in the front court (when Horford was out and not much other depth at PF) and the team was clearly struggling to make the playoffs, but despite all that Milsap still only played 31-32 minutes.
This leads me to think that maybe it's not a team limitation, but actually a physical limitation for Milsap, that's leading to him not playing those kinds of minutes. Maybe once he goes above those minutes on a consistent basis, his efficiency starts to suffer as a result.
If we had seen him play those minutes at least one or two time when we could probably assume that's not the case, but he's never done it...so I feel it's maybe a bit of a stretch to just assume that he can do so while still producing at the same rate.
I know that 3 or 4 minutes doesn't sound like much, but that's the difference between getting a 4 minute rest each quarter versus a 3 minute rest each quarter. When you're playing at an NBA level of intensity, that extra minute rest might make all the difference.
It's not about painting an accurate picture depicting what a player has been as much as drawing a sketch projecting what a player could do. Do I think Bradley could average that? Yeah. Would I want him to? No. His defense could be great, but the points would be scored inefficiently and as a guard his ball handling and distribution skills are subpar.
Thing is though, I'm not so sure Bradley could put up those numbers, at least not now.
Maybe in the future, because he's still very young and so he has a lot of room to develop. But if you just threw him on another team right now and played him 36 MPG, I don't think he'd put up that stat line.
I think 18 PPG is possible at a stretch, but if you're scoring that much on those kind of minutes then you're a bit part of your teams offense, and that that extra responsibility probably takes a toll on his defense and his shooting efficiency.
The assist numbers he could maybe achieve if he spent more time at PG, but then his turnovers would likely increase and his shooting numbers would likely go down.
i just don't see his numbers jump to that level just purely as a result of a trade to a new team and an increase in playing time. If they did, then his trade value would increase exponentially.
As for All Star games, you moved the goalposts from making one to being voted onto on. Coaches' selections and injury replacements are always having a good year, whereas the voters sometimes pick players who aren't. All Star appearances aren't the most legitimate metric to begin with, but any legitimacy problem is precisely because of the voting mechanism. You did a fantastic job finding comparables who didn't make the All Star game, but a few of them clearly should have.
When I said voting though, I didn't mean just fan votes, I meant all votes.
Generally everybody who makes an All-Star game is voted in by some means - either by the fans (starters) or by coaches/GM's (reserves) or by I think the commissioner (injury replacements).
But one way or the other, they are getting somebody's vote, and as a general rule those votes (unless the player is absolutely lights-out dominant) end up being heavily influenced by how well the team is playing, how popular the player is, etc.
Quick question: Until two years ago, was there any statistical evidence that Millsap could be a competent three point option? Millsap is a player who is still capable of improving, is my point. He'll be 30 next year, but still not quite a finished product.
True, but the difference is that two years ago Milsap was 28 years old. Most guys are still improving/developing in that 27-29 range, and that's usually when they are just reaching their peak. Once you get to 30-32 guys typically typically have already reached the peak of their career, and they either level out or softly decline. Once they reach 33 the more significant decline usually begins, and by 35 most players are about ready to retire.
While it's not unheard of for players to add new skills to their game past the age of 30, most of the time this is to help prolong their career, (rather than improve their game.
For example, Kobe added the post up game because he could feel he wasn't able to explode past guys off the dribble the way he used to, so he chose to take the opposite approach and beat guys with his size/strength instead. He didn't actually become a better player, it just helped him remain relevant / competitive for longer.
Same is true for Karl Malone, who relied a lot on his post game and physical dominance early in his career. Once he got older he could't do that any more, so he developed a dangerous jump shot. But again, he didn't necessarily get any better as a player, it just allowed him to play at a high level for longer.
The thing is, Milsap is a different kind of player to those guys. He's already got that 'swiss army knife' style of game, with a very versatile set of skills. There isn't really a big hole in his game right now that he could suddenly fill in order to make himself more relevant, and even if there was one it would most likely prolong his career longer rather than actually make him better.
This is why I find it very unlikely that Milsap, at age 31 next season, will go out and achieve career highs in almost every statistical category. Not impossible of course, but I don't see it happening.
What does "not very likely" mean to you...20%? 35%? 0.5%? I myself would not call it "very likely", but I think there's at least a 50/50 chance of him being able to play an extra three minutes and put up an extra 5-10% points, rebounds, and assists.
Given his age and the type of player he is, I'd say maybe 25% at best.
46% which includes 35% shooting on 3 threes a game, right? Well, that statline would be fantastic. Sign him up. Considering the ballooning cap, give him the max. He might as well be a 20/10/3.5/2/1 player in that case, and nobody would not give that kind of player a max offer, especially this summer.
I know that sounds great on paper, but I'm still not convinced it's a max money player.
I still see Milsap as a Chandler Parsons / Gordon Hayward / Eric Gordon / Josh Smith level of player - and while all of those guys have gotten max contract deals in recent times, I don't believe any of them deserved it.
I feel they were all cases of teams overpaying for those guys because the top tier FA's were gone, and they were the best of what was left.
Those people are fickle, whoever they are...if they actually exist, lol. But for me, anyway, it's not a matter of bringing aboard Millsap, calling it a day, and expecting 50-60 wins to roll in with the same team we had this year plus Millsap. It'd have to be part of a 2007-like overhaul. Millsap would be the second-best player, or a first among three equals (a la his situation now), or maybe the best player by a hair on a team stacked with above-average talent like the '04 Pistons.
To this I some what agree - if we could add a first-tier player (like a Demarcus Cousins, a Lemarcus Aldridge, etc) either through trade or free agency, then adding Milsap along with that guy could catapult this team to a top 3 seed in the East with instant contender potential.
Even if we could add Mailsap along with another second-tier player (Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, Jimmy butler, DeAndre Jordan) then I think that combination would elevate us to at least around a 4th or 5th seed with a legit chance of making a deep playoff run.
Unfortunately though, Adding Milsap on his own...I'm not sure if that will improve us much at all. I don't see adding Milsap as a move that puts us above Cleveland, Chicago, Washington or Toronto. Maybe it puts us above Atlanta (because they would lose Milsap) and Milwaukee...but then we also have to worry about Miami and Indiana (who get Bosh and George back).
I'd say realistically, adding Milsap in place of the Sully/Bass/Olynyk trio probably pushes us up from the 7th seed to the 6th, at best.
I don't think $15M - $20M to jump one seed is good value for money.
