League executive predicts Khris Middleton will receive $15mill/season

[chambers]

it's going to make other free agents more likely to want to join Boston because he's a great player.

I think this is wrong on both points.  Middleton isn't "great", and he's not going to attract free agents.

He had a great 2nd half of the season, and he's better than anyone on our roster when you consider his defensive abilities.

I think having him on our roster would greatly increase the attractiveness of our team to free agents. The spacing he provides and his versatility on the defensive (and offensive end) is something NBA players recognize.

My main points...
- There's a very good chance that Khris Middleton taking up 13.8% of the cap for two years could be incredible value, especially if he gives us an efficient 18-20 ppg, stretches the floor and can guard multiple positions on D.
- Khris Middleton taking up 13.8% of the cap for 2 years is never going to hurt us financially unless he can't play due to injury.

[Roy H.]

I think having him on our roster would greatly increase the attractiveness of our team to free agents. The spacing he provides and his versatility on the defensive (and offensive end) is something NBA players recognize.

Can you think of a situation where something like this has ever happened?  A free agent attributing his decision to the presence of a role playing third option on the roster?

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Free agents follow guys like Lebron, not Middleton.

[chambers]

A free agent attributing his decision to the presence of a role playing third option on the roster?

I said that he greatly increases the attractiveness of the Celtics to potential free agents. They aren't going to base their entire decision on it, but it would have significant impact (in my opinion).
 He's an up and coming player, getting national media attention, particularly among basketball aficionados, and that having him on the Celtics would have a very positive impact on potential free agent signings if he chose to come to Boston.

And yes, I do think that free agents look at the players who are already on a team and how those players would help the total wins at the end of a season. He would be the best player on our team, and would be a serious talent upgrade to a roster that needs more talent.

If you were a 1st or 2nd option, wouldn't you look at the 3rd and 4th options on the team already when making your decision?

That's not the point of this thread though. The discussion of the thread is whether or not paying Khris Middleton $15 million is an overpay, which I don't think it is, because he would be a substantial talent upgrade at a position of need and could become a bargain, particularly in the 2nd half of his contract as he enters his prime, taking up only 13.8% of the cap.

[Roy H.]

That's not the point of this thread though. The discussion of the thread is whether or not paying Khris Middleton $15 million is an overpay, which I don't think it is

If that's the only discussion allowed in the thread, we might as well lock it right now, because it's beating a dead horse at this point.  I think everyone has had their say on that across multiple threads.

... and could become a bargain...

Yes, he could be.  The inverse is also true, of course.  It's stupefying to me to see a vocal minority of fans arguing that there is no risk to paying a one-year-wonder role player $15 million per year.

[PhoSita]

I think having him on our roster would greatly increase the attractiveness of our team to free agents. The spacing he provides and his versatility on the defensive (and offensive end) is something NBA players recognize.

Can you think of a situation where something like this has ever happened?  A free agent attributing his decision to the presence of a role playing third option on the roster?

It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Free agents follow guys like Lebron, not Middleton.

I agree, though I do think that being perceived as a young and upcoming team can help snag free agents who might be otherwise considering, say, older borderline-contending teams.  So having a collection of promising and competitive young players can have a similar effect to having one or two big names.

The name that comes to mind is David West, preferring the Pacers over the Celtics.  But of course, he chose a team with Paul George on it.

[Who]

I don't think big name free agents come here (solely or chiefly) because of Middleton but winning more games and growing as a team will help Boston attract free agents.

They are already too good to get high draft picks. Unlikely avenue to acquiring star talent. It doesn't require any trade assets to acquire him and the team has so much cap flexibility in future years that acquiring Middleton doesn't really hurt their chances of trading for a star now or in the future either. But signing Middleton and improving team by winning more games should help Boston attract free agents.

I think Boston needs to take chances on some 2nd/3rd tier free agents. On young up and comers. I do not think this team is currently attractive to the big name main free agents. I think a FA plan based on them will fail and continue to fail in coming years. I think the team needs to add more talent. Guys who can be above average starters. Middleton has shown some promise in that regard and I think he fits into that 3rd tier up and comer free agent bracket.

[mahcus smaht]

A free agent attributing his decision to the presence of a role playing third option on the roster?

I said that he greatly increases the attractiveness of the Celtics to potential free agents. They aren't going to base their entire decision on it, but it would have significant impact (in my opinion).
 He's an up and coming player, getting national media attention, particularly among basketball aficionados, and that having him on the Celtics would have a very positive impact on potential free agent signings if he chose to come to Boston.

And yes, I do think that free agents look at the players who are already on a team and how those players would help the total wins at the end of a season. He would be the best player on our team, and would be a serious talent upgrade to a roster that needs more talent.

If you were a 1st or 2nd option, wouldn't you look at the 3rd and 4th options on the team already when making your decision?

That's not the point of this thread though. The discussion of the thread is whether or not paying Khris Middleton $15 million is an overpay, which I don't think it is, because he would be a substantial talent upgrade at a position of need and could become a bargain, particularly in the 2nd half of his contract as he enters his prime, taking up only 13.8% of the cap.

I dont think a player will ever go to our team because we have Krhis Middleton but as you said its more that the improvement in our team that will result from Khris Middleton's presence. He creates a lot of flexibility with AB, Turner, and Crowder and he immediately becomes the best 3pt shooter on the team. 

I mean with Middleton signed I think its far more likely that we make the playoffs and thus are seen as a more attractive FA destination.

[Roy H.]

The name that comes to mind is David West, preferring the Pacers over the Celtics.  But of course, he chose a team with Paul George on it.

The Pacers also offered the most money annually, though.

[PhoSita]

The name that comes to mind is David West, preferring the Pacers over the Celtics.  But of course, he chose a team with Paul George on it.

The Pacers also offered the most money annually, though.

Yeah, I just remember hearing that it came down to him wanting multiple shots at a title and he thought the Pacers were going to stay relevant for longer.

Funny that he was kinda right and kinda wrong.  I still think the Celts could have made the Finals if they had West that year.

[mahcus smaht]

Middleton is a 23 year old player who in a contract year has played for 1 half of a year at an extremely high level. 40% 3pt shooting, 18 ppg great D, plays both wing positions.

There is obviously a lot of risk. prior to this season he has had defensive issues. He never scored to the extent he did this year.

I mean Id love to add jimmy Butler and Id love to add kawhi leonard. Marc gasol? Lamarcus Aldridge? sign me up.

However, these guys are VERY rarely available. Signing a Khris Middleton is a gamble, but its the kind that, if you are not going to tank, you have to take.

I think in all likelihood his defense slumps a bit and he becomes a 16-17 ppg scorer who shoots lights out and defends at an OK level.

For me the 3 primary targets are Monroe, Middleton, Harris
I also like Robin Lopez but hes a bit of a different category all together.
what do you think about the other 2?

What do you think we should do this offseason?

[BudweiserCeltic]

The name that comes to mind is David West, preferring the Pacers over the Celtics.  But of course, he chose a team with Paul George on it.

The Pacers also offered the most money annually, though.

To me it was more of our inability to unload JO, and how long the process was taking, that when a sure thing came along with the Pacers he went with them. If we could've found a taker for JO right away, I think West chooses the Celtics and it would've been a done deal.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Middleton is not a player that attracts other players to the Celtics. 



But signing him to 15 million a year contract this off-seasons will certainly make it harder to add such a player if they become available next season. 

You're missing the point. It's not that we have Middleton and suddenly he attracts players. What will attract players, if anything,  is a Celtics team that actually moving forward, improving, getting to the playoffs, etc. Other than that we have nothing else to offer these players that will be hitting the free agency market in 2016, which is what most of you guys seem worried about... we don't have anything else to attract them with.

And that being the case, we might not be a desireable landing spot for them anyways, so what use is having cap space if you won't be able to attract anyone? At least if you get someone like Middleton you can 1) Improve the Celtics team to make it more attractive and 2) Have another trade asset.

And what specifically do you mean by "But signing him to 15 million a year contract this off-seasons will certainly make it harder to add such a player if they become available next season."? Context matters here.

Context

Overpayed players are not good trade assets.

Overpayed players do not move teams forward.  They get teams stuck at the level they are at.

Nice context, doesn't apply here. Thanks.

[gpap]

Middleton is a 23 year old player who in a contract year has played for 1 half of a year at an extremely high level. 40% 3pt shooting, 18 ppg great D, plays both wing positions.

There is obviously a lot of risk. prior to this season he has had defensive issues. He never scored to the extent he did this year.

I mean Id love to add jimmy Butler and Id love to add kawhi leonard. Marc gasol? Lamarcus Aldridge? sign me up.

However, these guys are VERY rarely available. Signing a Khris Middleton is a gamble, but its the kind that, if you are not going to tank, you have to take.

I think in all likelihood his defense slumps a bit and he becomes a 16-17 ppg scorer who shoots lights out and defends at an OK level.

For me the 3 primary targets are Monroe, Middleton, Harris
I also like Robin Lopez but hes a bit of a different category all together.
what do you think about the other 2?

What do you think we should do this offseason?

Get a center! Look how much better the Cavs got after they acquired Mozgov.

[Casperian]

1. Pretty much every single team out there will have money to throw around. If you want to try and land some of those star players you have to make this team look more attractive, else they should make the easy decision and join teams that are already set with talent/star players in their rosters and now somehow find themselves with money to spend because the salary cap increased substantially.

As wdleehi and Roy already pointed out, players of Middleton's calibre will not attract any star players. Our team will only attract star players if they feel we can offer them a better situation going forward than our competitors can (you acknowledged that).

2a. Players of comparable talent/potential should be more costly in the following years. Heck, even lesser players might be more expensive.
2b. As those players will be most costly, having a player on a better cost controlled contract (and young) will add another asset in potential trades to acquire a talented player if that's the road we're interested in going.
2c. Considering that the incentive to trade players will be by my estimation at an all-time low, having players under contract that you can actually trade, should be of benefit to us.

All of this assumes that 3rd year player Middleton will at least keep up his current level of production. That is not certain, and in fact, is the reason why I mentioned the cautionary tale of Ben Gordon (and I could've substituted the name Gordon with many other players). A player on a multi-year deal making 15% of the cap who doesn't live up to that sum is not as easily tradable as you make him out to be.

3. I mention that flexibility is not an issue because even if we make this decision we'll still have flexibility.

There's the salary floor to take into consideration as well. It'll jump to $81 million or so in 2016, next year should be about $60 million. Could be filled with 1 year contracts of course, but I rather take a chance on young potential than do nothing and miss out on just about every opportunity out there.

A player making 15% of the cap is still a player making 15% of the cap, no matter how high the absolute cap ultimately is.

All that said, in 2016 the only player I'm actually really interested in offering max dollars to, that could be attainable, is Kevin Durant and you're not attracting Kevin Durant by being a team that is taking steps back or stagnant. Absent of that, we have to be very aggressive in the trade market and to be aggressive in the trade market you need to have players in your roster to make it worth while. And just in case, yes we can afford Kevin Durant if we overspend on someone like Middleton.

Again, all of this assumes, of course, that a player of Middleton's calibre would make us significantly better.

To use your example, why would Durant join us if Middleton does not live up to the potential? Why join a team with some crippling multi-year deals on their payroll? You could just as well argue that a team with a lot of cap flexibility might be more interesting to Durant, as it would allow us to surround him with an even better supporting cast, and his presence would make it even easier to put all that cap space to good use.

None of this tells me why it's "pivotal" to use our cap space before 2016. It's just an opinion based on a bunch of questionable assumptions.

But here's the kicker: If Durant does not want to sign with us (I know, right?), we're then stuck with a bunch of ok players taking up our cap space, and a limited ability to improve through trades and FA. In this...unlikely case, all we did was rob us of our Plan B (or C).

It's a gamble at best, but a careless and negligent use of our best asset at worst.

You said it yourself, you're not convinced that Middleton is the guy you actually want. You mentioned other names you would prefer over him several times. Well, I agree, but these guys are not available, right now.
So, instead of waiting until they become available, you suggest we use the best asset we have to acquire these guys when they do become available, for lesser talent which may or may not make us more interesting to the first group.

I have to agree with Roy, it's a stupefying line of argumentation.

[td450]

So Danny trades up to 5 firsts, Sullinger and if necessary, Isaiah Thomas. He is able to work a multi-team deal that gets us a top 5 pick - Winslow, and also move down a few slots to grab Kaminsky.

If I were Love or Monroe, I'd want to play with that group.