League executive predicts Khris Middleton will receive $15mill/season

[Forza Juventus]

Most of the good restricted free agents will get max contracts. This shouldn't be a surprise and is not an overpay, it is market value. Get what's yours Khris.

[alewilliam789]

Not worth it. Would rather address needs in the draft.

[chambers]

Here is a result for middleton and his equivalent contract as of today would be 10.73 millions.

Well, that's not necessarily true.  Maybe it's equivalent in average terms, but he'd receive the equivalent of $14.1 million next year.  That would put him as the 30th highest paid player in the NBA (compared to this year's salaries), more than guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, and Steph Curry.  The only non-superstars making more than him are generally the guys where you say "yep, he's overpaid".  It's certainly not the going rate for a starting, non-star wing; just because Dallas overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean other teams should follow suit, setting a new market for non-top tier talent.

When Steph Curry signs his next contract in 2017/18 he'll be looking at over $32,000,000 (30% of the cap.) Thirty two million dollars.

So the $15 million won't look too bad then, especially if Middleton continues to improve as he has this season.

[chambers]

Here is a result for middleton and his equivalent contract as of today would be 10.73 millions.

Well, that's not necessarily true.  Maybe it's equivalent in average terms, but he'd receive the equivalent of $14.1 million next year.  That would put him as the 30th highest paid player in the NBA (compared to this year's salaries), more than guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, and Steph Curry.  The only non-superstars making more than him are generally the guys where you say "yep, he's overpaid".  It's certainly not the going rate for a starting, non-star wing; just because Dallas overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean other teams should follow suit, setting a new market for non-top tier talent.

LGC88 must be banging his head against the wall in frustration trying to explain that this long term  contract offer would be totally in line with future contracts and even a bargain possibly. Today he may become the 30th highest paid player, but as new contracts are signed as the cap explodes he will rapidly move back to 50th and way beyond. The only questions that need to be answered are: 1) Was Middleton's season indicative of a $10 million player? (remember that today's $10 million player is tomorrow's $15 million player) 2) Is there even more likely upside to this player? 3) Would he work well in Steven's system? I think that the answer to all three questions is a definite yes.

Except of course for the years where the cap hasn't exploded.  You know, the early years where the Celtics are still in the "add more talent" phase. 


That's where overpaying (which this would be) hurts the team.  (unless you want to wait those couple of years until the cap explodes to continue the talent adding phase)

Yeah, you can't do that math. 

I don't think the Bucks match 15 million of course I don't think anyone gives him 15 million either.  It certainly didn't work out for Dallas overpaying Parsons, and Parsons is better than Middleton. 

You don't overpay for mid-level players, especially when you don't have your top tier players already on the roster.  Boston is better off not spending money than wasting it.  Because if you have cap room you have so much more flexibility i.e. you can claim guys off waivers (like Thomas Robinson), you can take on salary for 1st round picks (like Javelle McGee), you can take on players that teams need to dump (like Tyler Zeller - I realize that was a trade exception but the theory is the same), etc.

Actually considering Middlton's defensive impact, if you look at their numbers post All Star Break, Middleton was a better player than Parsons.
He's also 3 years younger than Parsons and hasn't even played two seasons as a starter.
Anyway, in a league where top tier stars will be getting paid over $32 million in 2017, paying a guy who can be a 2nd or 3rd option on a contender is not hurting our flexibility.

We're talking about a guy who in in 2nd year as a starter at 23 years old, was the number one option against the Bulls in the playoffs.
He's a better player than Jeff Green was in 2010/11 when we gave him that deal, and has the potential to keep getting better.

The point is that to me, there's no real argument here that signing Middleton to $15 million a year over 4 years is going to 'hamstring' our franchise financially, considering his age, experience and rapid progression as an elite shooter, near elite defender who is adding a dribble drive game to his offensive repertoire.

[LGC88]

Here is a result for middleton and his equivalent contract as of today would be 10.73 millions.

Well, that's not necessarily true.  Maybe it's equivalent in average terms, but he'd receive the equivalent of $14.1 million next year.  That would put him as the 30th highest paid player in the NBA (compared to this year's salaries), more than guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, and Steph Curry.  The only non-superstars making more than him are generally the guys where you say "yep, he's overpaid".  It's certainly not the going rate for a starting, non-star wing; just because Dallas overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean other teams should follow suit, setting a new market for non-top tier talent.

LGC88 must be banging his head against the wall in frustration trying to explain that this long term  contract offer would be totally in line with future contracts and even a bargain possibly. Today he may become the 30th highest paid player, but as new contracts are signed as the cap explodes he will rapidly move back to 50th and way beyond. The only questions that need to be answered are: 1) Was Middleton's season indicative of a $10 million player? (remember that today's $10 million player is tomorrow's $15 million player) 2) Is there even more likely upside to this player? 3) Would he work well in Steven's system? I think that the answer to all three questions is a definite yes.

I'm not banging my head of frustration. Also, where did I mention Middleton's future contract will be in line or possible bargain?
I was just trying to make people realize what a 15m contract should be as of today if the salary cap wasn't increasing.
Of course you can debate if 11m is worth for Middleton. But don't say "15m ? no way!!!" because that's not the case here.

[wdleehi]

Here is a result for middleton and his equivalent contract as of today would be 10.73 millions.

Well, that's not necessarily true.  Maybe it's equivalent in average terms, but he'd receive the equivalent of $14.1 million next year.  That would put him as the 30th highest paid player in the NBA (compared to this year's salaries), more than guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker, and Steph Curry.  The only non-superstars making more than him are generally the guys where you say "yep, he's overpaid".  It's certainly not the going rate for a starting, non-star wing; just because Dallas overpaid for Parsons doesn't mean other teams should follow suit, setting a new market for non-top tier talent.

When Steph Curry signs his next contract in 2017/18 he'll be looking at over $32,000,000 (30% of the cap.) Thirty two million dollars.

So the $15 million won't look too bad then, especially if Middleton continues to improve as he has this season.

Then sign him for that contract then.   Meanwhile, the Celtics do not have that type of cap to work with the years leading up to it.  That means for those years, the contract is a hindrance to other types of moves to improve the team. 

[TheTruthFot18]

Talking millions won't reflect the value of the contract.
We should talk with % for the length of the contract and make an average %.
Here is a result for middleton and his equivalent contract as of today would be 10.73 millions.

Those cap number increases are nuts. I see why contracts and length are becoming more of an issue now. All the more reason IT will be the most bang for your buck contract for the next three years.

[BleedGreen1989]

I'm confident MIL is matching any offer for him.

Maybe you can tempt them with a S&T but do you really want to pay him the max AND give up significant assets?

[BudweiserCeltic]

You guys are extremely shortsighted honestly. I'm averse to spending on the wrong guys as anyone around here, but this talk about overpaying or not all is doing is showing very little insight into our cap situation and that of the league in particular going forward.

You guys do realize that the entire league will have a crap load of cap space the following years right? If you don't make a move right now, you'll be left behind because you''ll not be attracting anyone otherwise in the future.

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

And I love that all you guys are bringing up past blunders with overpaying players, but you guys DO realize that even if we waste ALL our cap space this year, we'll also have a ton of cap space the following free-agency right?

Making a move in this particular free-agency will NOT tie our hands behind our backs going forward. We have a lot of cap flexibility, a lot of team option, a lot of cost controlled players in our roster on short term contracts.

If the decision is to get no one or "over"spend on Middleton this Summer the choice is quite clear, you have to spend on acquiring the talent.

The ONLY saving grace here is that if we don't manage to spend this year, we still have the trade exception at our disposal. But looking around the market, it does seem that teams are going to be a bit averse at trading away talent, so not sure how much good retaining the exception will be. With that being said, I prefer to acquire the player that can be had than hope that a trade happens at some point.

[wdleehi]

You guys are extremely shortsighted honestly. I'm averse to spending on the wrong guys as anyone around here, but this talk about overpaying or not all is doing is showing very little insight into our cap situation and that of the league in particular going forward.

You guys do realize that the entire league will have a crap load of cap space the following years right? If you don't make a move right now, you'll be left behind because you''ll not be attracting anyone otherwise in the future.

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

And I love that all you guys are bringing up past blunders with overpaying players, but you guys DO realize that even if we waste ALL our cap space this year, we'll also have a ton of cap space the following free-agency right?

Making a move in this particular free-agency will NOT tie our hands behind our backs going forward. We have a lot of cap flexibility, a lot of team option, a lot of cost controlled players in our roster on short term contracts.

If the decision is to get no one or "over"spend on Middleton this Summer the choice is quite clear, you have to spend on acquiring the talent.

The ONLY saving grace here is that if we don't manage to spend this year, we still have the trade exception at our disposal. But looking around the market, it does seem that teams are going to be a bit averse at trading away talent, so not sure how much good retaining the exception will be. With that being said, I prefer to acquire the player that can be had than hope that a trade happens at some point.

Small overpaying is fine. 


Overpaying by 5 millions, crazy. 

[bdm860]

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

Isn't that basically the only things all other teams want though? 

Only 3 ways to acquire players: free agents, trades, and draft, so of course if we don't sign free agents we're only left with the other two.

The thing is having cap space make trades so much easier, unless you think Minnesota really wanted Theo Ratliff when the C's got Garnett, or the C's really wanted to get Gerald Wallace and Keith Bogans from the Nets.

It will be much easier to acquire Cousins when the C's only have to send a few draft picks out and a young player or two instead of also having to find $15m in contracts to send back to Sacramento to make the deal work 

[Moranis]

You guys are extremely shortsighted honestly. I'm averse to spending on the wrong guys as anyone around here, but this talk about overpaying or not all is doing is showing very little insight into our cap situation and that of the league in particular going forward.

You guys do realize that the entire league will have a crap load of cap space the following years right? If you don't make a move right now, you'll be left behind because you''ll not be attracting anyone otherwise in the future.

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

And I love that all you guys are bringing up past blunders with overpaying players, but you guys DO realize that even if we waste ALL our cap space this year, we'll also have a ton of cap space the following free-agency right?

Making a move in this particular free-agency will NOT tie our hands behind our backs going forward. We have a lot of cap flexibility, a lot of team option, a lot of cost controlled players in our roster on short term contracts.

If the decision is to get no one or "over"spend on Middleton this Summer the choice is quite clear, you have to spend on acquiring the talent.

The ONLY saving grace here is that if we don't manage to spend this year, we still have the trade exception at our disposal. But looking around the market, it does seem that teams are going to be a bit averse at trading away talent, so not sure how much good retaining the exception will be. With that being said, I prefer to acquire the player that can be had than hope that a trade happens at some point.

If the C's sign Middleton, who is Boston's #1 guy, who is Boston's #2 guy?  Can you win a title with those players as you 1 and 2?  If the answer is no, then you don't sign Middleton. 

It makes no sense to add role players to a team that lacks top tier talent because you can't win a title without top tier talent, and it is much more difficult to acquire top tier talent if you are over (or near) the cap. 

The simple truth is Middleton doesn't make Boston a title contender and in fact may make the team farther from a title contender by making the team slightly better and taking up cap space.  It just doesn't make sense.  Now if Boston somehow lands a top tier player, adding Middleton makes a lot more sense, but you still don't give a glorified role player 15 million a year (or 11 million if you want to use that fuzzy math).  You can find much greater value much cheaper than that.  The only way you sign Middleton to that sort of contract is if you truly believe he can be a #2 guy on a title team (and I don't think anyone actually believes that).

[BudweiserCeltic]

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

Isn't that basically the only things all other teams want though? 

Only 3 ways to acquire players: free agents, trades, and draft, so of course if we don't sign free agents we're only left with the other two.

The thing is having cap space make trades so much easier, unless you think Minnesota really wanted Theo Ratliff when the C's got Garnett, or the C's really wanted to get Gerald Wallace and Keith Bogans from the Nets.

It will be much easier to acquire Cousins when the C's only have to send a few draft picks out and a young player or two instead of also having to find $15m in contracts to send back to Sacramento to make the deal work 

As I said, if we spend our cap space this year we'll have it once again next year. So in that regard having another skilled player on roster makes trading away assets that much vital, else you're left naked. That said, as I mentioned, teams have VERY low incentive in trading skilled players at this moment. Chances Cousins gets traded right now are very very slim.

[LGC88]

You guys are extremely shortsighted honestly. I'm averse to spending on the wrong guys as anyone around here, but this talk about overpaying or not all is doing is showing very little insight into our cap situation and that of the league in particular going forward.

You guys do realize that the entire league will have a crap load of cap space the following years right? If you don't make a move right now, you'll be left behind because you''ll not be attracting anyone otherwise in the future.

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

And I love that all you guys are bringing up past blunders with overpaying players, but you guys DO realize that even if we waste ALL our cap space this year, we'll also have a ton of cap space the following free-agency right?

Making a move in this particular free-agency will NOT tie our hands behind our backs going forward. We have a lot of cap flexibility, a lot of team option, a lot of cost controlled players in our roster on short term contracts.

If the decision is to get no one or "over"spend on Middleton this Summer the choice is quite clear, you have to spend on acquiring the talent.

The ONLY saving grace here is that if we don't manage to spend this year, we still have the trade exception at our disposal. But looking around the market, it does seem that teams are going to be a bit averse at trading away talent, so not sure how much good retaining the exception will be. With that being said, I prefer to acquire the player that can be had than hope that a trade happens at some point.

Amen...
I have been trying to explain that in different posts as well.
What some don't realize is that, those things are facts and it's not a debate, nothing to argue. You don't spend, all great players will be gone to top teams because they will all have cap space the next 2 years.

[BudweiserCeltic]

You guys are extremely shortsighted honestly. I'm averse to spending on the wrong guys as anyone around here, but this talk about overpaying or not all is doing is showing very little insight into our cap situation and that of the league in particular going forward.

You guys do realize that the entire league will have a crap load of cap space the following years right? If you don't make a move right now, you'll be left behind because you''ll not be attracting anyone otherwise in the future.

In addition to that, if you don't acquire players now you'll also be left without good tools other than rookie contracts and draft picks for trade assets.

And I love that all you guys are bringing up past blunders with overpaying players, but you guys DO realize that even if we waste ALL our cap space this year, we'll also have a ton of cap space the following free-agency right?

Making a move in this particular free-agency will NOT tie our hands behind our backs going forward. We have a lot of cap flexibility, a lot of team option, a lot of cost controlled players in our roster on short term contracts.

If the decision is to get no one or "over"spend on Middleton this Summer the choice is quite clear, you have to spend on acquiring the talent.

The ONLY saving grace here is that if we don't manage to spend this year, we still have the trade exception at our disposal. But looking around the market, it does seem that teams are going to be a bit averse at trading away talent, so not sure how much good retaining the exception will be. With that being said, I prefer to acquire the player that can be had than hope that a trade happens at some point.

If the C's sign Middleton, who is Boston's #1 guy, who is Boston's #2 guy?  Can you win a title with those players as you 1 and 2?  If the answer is no, then you don't sign Middleton. 

It makes no sense to add role players to a team that lacks top tier talent because you can't win a title without top tier talent, and it is much more difficult to acquire top tier talent if you are over (or near) the cap. 

The simple truth is Middleton doesn't make Boston a title contender and in fact may make the team farther from a title contender by making the team slightly better and taking up cap space.  It just doesn't make sense.  Now if Boston somehow lands a top tier player, adding Middleton makes a lot more sense, but you still don't give a glorified role player 15 million a year (or 11 million if you want to use that fuzzy math).  You can find much greater value much cheaper than that.  The only way you sign Middleton to that sort of contract is if you truly believe he can be a #2 guy on a title team (and I don't think anyone actually believes that).

I guess you missed the part of how we'll regain cap space almost immediately and the value of acquiring tradeable assets, on what will be cost controlled assets going forward compared to the market value in the future years.