Why the Celts Have No Chance at Cousins

[PhoSita]

"That's a pretty bold statement, man.  You got me to click.  How can you back that up?"


Here's how:

Cousins is on a contract that doesn't expire until 2018.  That means he has three full seasons left on his deal beyond this summer.

So, let's assume that the Kings are ready to move on from Cousins and reboot. 

Maybe they're worried about him causing problems in the locker room.  Maybe Karl wants to remake the team with his own vision.  Maybe they think trading Cousins is just a matter of time and they want to get maximum value for him.


Because of the length on his deal, each and every team in the league with significant assets, even a team at the very start of a rebuild, has incentive to make a godfather offer for DMC.  He's a top 10 player in the league at a position scarce in talent -- especially offensive talent -- and three years is a long time to put together something good enough that Cousins would want to stick around.

Even if Cousins is unhappy to be traded to a given team at first, you have three years to make it work with a guy whose most notable attribute is that he hates losing, wants to be the focal point of his team, and is sick of changing coaches. 

Any team in the league with the assets to make a deal should be willing to take on that challenge.

Sure, the Celts have a mountain of picks and cost-controlled talent.  So what?  Just as we saw last summer with the pursuit of Love, when a team trades a star, what they really want back is quality of assets, not quantity.  Any team with a top pick plus a young player with a high pedigree (read: "upside") will trump the Celtics offer.

Beyond that, because Cousins is already really, really good and has multiple years left, any teams that already have quality players but have stalled out below the level of contender have lots of incentive to pony up a huge offer for Boogie.

Check out the list packages teams could offer:

Philly: Embiid + 2015 PHI 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Lakers: Randle + Clarkson + 2015 LAL 1st + future 1st of SAC's choosing
Orlando: Vucevic + 2015 ORL 1st + Gordon + future 1st
Minnesota: 2015 MIN 1st + Dieng + Rubio / Lavine + future 1st
New York: 2015 NYK 1st + Hardaway + Larkin + future 1st

All of those teams have pick at the top of this year's draft, and most of them have exciting, or at least decent, young pieces and probably decent future picks to include.

What if SAC wants to stay competitive?  Remember, SAC has a crazy owner who is desperate to make a splash and probably won't care that it makes much more sense to reset with young talent.

Chicago: Rose + Noah + Mirotic
Washington: Beal + Porter + Gortat + multiple picks
Toronto: Lowry + Valanciunas + Ross + multiple picks
Detroit: Drummond + Jennings + 2015 1st + future 1st

Or how about this really crazy one:

OKC: Westbrook.  Straight up for Cousins + Collison.



Compare any of those deals to what the Celtics can offer:

Smart + Sullinger / Olynyk + Zeller + 2015 1st + BRK 2016 1st + BRK 2018 1st

That's three picks likely to fall in the 10-20 range plus a handful of pretty nice young role players with limited upside. 

Why would that excite Sacramento, at all, aside from the chance that Brooklyn completely bottoms out in 2016 and 2018 despite having no incentive whatsoever to do so?

[SHAQATTACK]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

[PhoSita]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

DMC has no leverage, though, because of the length of his deal. 

The fact that he prefers a certain destination -- and why he would prefer Boston over all the others I mentioned, I don't know -- won't matter much.  Any team that gets him will have at least two full seasons to convince him to stay.  If he still wants to go, you can trade him for a modest package when he has a full season left.


I think Hinkie would be thrilled to trade Embiid and a fiEdited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ll of picks for Cousins.  He's willing to gamble on lottery picks, why wouldn't he be willing to gamble on Cousins deciding to stay three years from now?  Sacramento would be crazy to take the Celts package over that one.

[CeltsAcumen]

Wouldnt the Thunder trade Durant with his foot before Westbrook?

I think Boogie Cousins will get himself out of Sacramento when he wants to really put pressure on the Kings.

I am one of the people who believes contracts really do not matter, if a player wants out, he can get out easily.  Talent has the power.  Boogie just has not realized how to affect the trade market yet.  IF Boogie becomes a problem, Sacramento will trade him, eventually.

[Celts Fan 508]

Celtics would need a 3rd team in the deal to have a deal happen involving Cousins

[PhoSita]

Wouldnt the Thunder trade Durant with his foot before Westbrook?

I think Boogie Cousins will get himself out of Sacramento when he wants to really put pressure on the Kings.

I am one of the people who believes contracts really do not matter, if a player wants out, he can get out easily.  Talent has the power.  Boogie just has not realized how to affect the trade market yet.  IF Boogie becomes a problem, Sacramento will trade him, eventually.

I think Cousins can get himself traded if he wants to, but the length of his deal means he has no control over where he gets sent.

Durant is still the 2nd best player in the league, foot problems or not.  Trading Westbrook, if they were gonna trade one of the two, makes more sense.  Look, I don't think they trade either, but there's at least a slight chance of OKC considering that.

Durant and Cousins would be a devastating combo.

[PhoSita]

Celtics would need a 3rd team in the deal to have a deal happen involving Cousins

3 team deals are very difficult to pull off, and you still run into the basic problem: how do the Celtics turn their middle of the road assets into a couple of really high quality assets? 

That's what it will take to trade for Cousins anytime before 2017.

[MBunge]

Let's examine these theoretical alternatives.

Philly - They are not going to offer that.  It would contradict literally every move they have made over the past 2+ years.

LA - That's a garbage offer.  DMC for a guy who has proven nothing, a small with good stats on an awful team, a non-top 2 pick this year and a future pick where no one knows what it will be.

Orlando - Another garbage offer.  A vastly inferior center, a project, and a couple of "meh" picks.

Minny - Decent offer.  Minny would never make it, however, because why would they?  Does adding DMC get them in the playoffs next year?  Everything is perfectly lined up for Minny to rebuild around Wiggins and this year's pick.

NY - The suggestion that Hardaway and Larkin are more attractive than anyone Boston would offer up is laughable.  So this is really a top 2 pick this year and a future 1st to be determined.  There's no way the Kings trade DMC for that and the Knicks have nothing else to offer except more draft picks that would stretch far into the future.

Chicago - Again, that's not an offer the Bulls would ever make, unless they really think Rose is shot.  And if he is, Sac never makes the deal.

Washington - Sac laughs and hangs up the phone.  Two mid-level starters, a project and undetermined picks?

Toronto - Three players from an Eastern Conference also-ran and, yet again, some undetermined picks?  That's supposed to change Sacramento's NBA destiny?

Detroit and OKC - Two solid offers that would arguably trump what Boston could put on the table.

And what would Boston actually offer?  Smart + Sully/KO + Zeller + #16 this year + Nets 2016 1st + Boston's 2017 1st, with rights to switch with Nets + Nets 2018 1st.  That's three straight years of unprotected 1st round picks with pretty nice odds that all of them could be in the lottery.

Would Sac take that deal right now?  Nah, but I don't think there's any way they trade DMC this offseason.  Are there teams that could make better offers? Yeah, but not nearly as many as you want to pretend.

Mike

[Celtics4ever]

I think the chances were always slim to none, most of the trades posted her are pipedreams.   You just do not give up on a player of Cousins caliber when he has a few years left on the contract.

[revtodd64]

Great post.  We are not getting Cousins this year and Danny will pull the trigger on someone before Cousins's contract is up.  We might be able to go after their draft pick however, but I think we would run into the same problem.  Maybe they would take Sullinger and #16 for the #6.  I'd love to get Justise Winslow there, but the Kings could use him too.

[PhoSita]

How would trading for a major star be contrary to what Philly has done recently?  All they've done recently is show that they will do anything to get a chance at a star they can build the team around,

Again, you can nitpick the deals, but they all feature at least one asset that is better than any single asset the Celts can offer.  That is the point.

[LarBrd33]

Prob will get outbid, but we could go all-in with a crazytown offer:

Thomas, Smart, Oly, Sully, Young, Zeller, Crowder, #16, #28, Brooklyn's 2016, Boston's 2016, Dallas 2016, Brooklyn's 2018, Boston's 2018  for Cousins

... and it still wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  Just trade Bradley for a draft pick and then package that draft pick with Wallace to dump his salary as well.

Start clean with cousins and then offer max deals to everyone

[LarBrd33]

How would trading for a major star be contrary to what Philly has done recently?  All they've done recently is show that they will do anything to get a chance at a star they can build the team around,

Again, you can nitpick the deals, but they all feature at least one asset that is better than any single asset the Celts can offer.  That is the point.

Agreed.  Can't rule out PHilly making moves this Summer.  I  read they are prepping a max offer to Tobias Harris.  Adding the 22 year old SF would fit well with Noel, Embiid and Mudiay/Russell.   But they have more assets and cap space than anyone to throw a contender together asap.  They also have assets like Dario Saric and the Lakers 2016 1st that have solid trade value.

[nickagneta]

Let's examine these theoretical alternatives.

Philly - They are not going to offer that.  It would contradict literally every move they have made over the past 2+ years.

LA - That's a garbage offer.  DMC for a guy who has proven nothing, a small with good stats on an awful team, a non-top 2 pick this year and a future pick where no one knows what it will be.

Orlando - Another garbage offer.  A vastly inferior center, a project, and a couple of "meh" picks.

Minny - Decent offer.  Minny would never make it, however, because why would they?  Does adding DMC get them in the playoffs next year?  Everything is perfectly lined up for Minny to rebuild around Wiggins and this year's pick.

NY - The suggestion that Hardaway and Larkin are more attractive than anyone Boston would offer up is laughable.  So this is really a top 2 pick this year and a future 1st to be determined.  There's no way the Kings trade DMC for that and the Knicks have nothing else to offer except more draft picks that would stretch far into the future.

Chicago - Again, that's not an offer the Bulls would ever make, unless they really think Rose is shot.  And if he is, Sac never makes the deal.

Washington - Sac laughs and hangs up the phone.  Two mid-level starters, a project and undetermined picks?

Toronto - Three players from an Eastern Conference also-ran and, yet again, some undetermined picks?  That's supposed to change Sacramento's NBA destiny?

Detroit and OKC - Two solid offers that would arguably trump what Boston could put on the table.

And what would Boston actually offer?  Smart + Sully/KO + Zeller + #16 this year + Nets 2016 1st + Boston's 2017 1st, with rights to switch with Nets + Nets 2018 1st.  That's three straight years of unprotected 1st round picks with pretty nice odds that all of them could be in the lottery.

Would Sac take that deal right now?  Nah, but I don't think there's any way they trade DMC this offseason.  Are there teams that could make better offers? Yeah, but not nearly as many as you want to pretend.

Mike

Gotta agree with most of this.

Also, Sacramento has to be willing to trade Cousins and I just don't think they want to or will until Cousins becomes seriously toxic in the Kings locker room.

[TheTruthFot18]

I think the Celtics do ...but they need DCM wanting to leave for Boston I believe.

Three firsts and Sully should work , IF DCM tells them....look I need to leave.

Melo was traded at age 26 for not that much. That trade was more of what the OP was referencing in terms of quality vs. quality. Plus they only received one first in 2014 (used in the Affalo trade).

While DMC might be a better top 3 at his position than Melo at his, they are/were both headaches to heir team. Only difference is Melo got them to the playoffs and even to the WCF in 2009.

I think it's possible for the Celtics but DMC would want to leave, as Melo did, in order for it to happen.