Was this playoff appearance worth it?

[TA9]

Was it worth it? Maybe, maybe not.. Time will tell.
Is it fun seeing the C's in the playoffs? Hell yeah!!!!

[mctyson]

Yes, I've loved watching these games.

[Celtics18]

Your assumption that pick 10 is a far more valuable asset than pick 16 is just ridiculous.  It is six picks better sure, but I would say the chances of getting a star at 10 or 16 is just about the same, slim.

In terms of the difference in 10 to 16 in terms of getting a star, historically speaking it is about a coin flip as to which spot is more likely to yield a star.

However, the difference in value for trading up is great. It is much easier to trade up to the 6th pick using the 10th pick than the 16th pick. If the end goal is to trade up as high as you can then the 10th pick is a lot more valuable.

That isn't to say I would undo the deals we made to get us to the playoffs in order to get the 10th pick.

In the end if we see someone who we think can be a star in the 6-10 range then we have more than enough assets to get up there.

The thing is, anyone available at 16 was also available at 10, so even in the years where 16 has yielded a better player than 10, you still could have had that player at 10 if you were a better drafter.  The difference between 10 and 16 is the 6 players taken from 10-15 every single year, which you will never be able to draft at 16, and which give you a much higher likelihood of getting an impact player.

EDIT: 2011 is a good example of this.  the 10th pick was Jimmer Fredette. The 16th pick was Nikola Vucevic.  11 was Klay Thompson.  12-15 were Alec Burks, the Morris twins, and Kawhi Leonard.  Thus if the Kings weren't idiots, they would have had their pick of 3 all star level players in Leonard, Thompson, and Vucevic or 3 solid rotational players in Burks and the Morris brothers, but instead they took Fredette.  That is the advantage of 10 vs. 16.  And while 2011 was a bit rare with the shear quality of player still on the board at 10, every year there are a lot more quality players available at 10 than 16.

The thing is, though, in every draft, you can generally count on a good number of the teams picking in front of you to be "idiots."  Personally, I think it has much more to do with the draft being far from an exact science.  Sometimes there's simply no way of knowing how a talented nineteen year old will eventually pan out as a pro.

I've always maintained that how well you draft, coupled with how well you develop players, is more important than what spot you happen to picking at. 

[Fafnir]

You just proved my point.

Proclaiming victory after being challenged is your primary debate "tool".

Best part I didn't even want to make the playoffs! But what others think/feel is your area of expertise, not what others "think" they feel.

[Fafnir]

Your assumption that pick 10 is a far more valuable asset than pick 16 is just ridiculous.  It is six picks better sure, but I would say the chances of getting a star at 10 or 16 is just about the same, slim.

In terms of the difference in 10 to 16 in terms of getting a star, historically speaking it is about a coin flip as to which spot is more likely to yield a star.

However, the difference in value for trading up is great. It is much easier to trade up to the 6th pick using the 10th pick than the 16th pick. If the end goal is to trade up as high as you can then the 10th pick is a lot more valuable.

That isn't to say I would undo the deals we made to get us to the playoffs in order to get the 10th pick.

In the end if we see someone who we think can be a star in the 6-10 range then we have more than enough assets to get up there.

The thing is, anyone available at 16 was also available at 10, so even in the years where 16 has yielded a better player than 10, you still could have had that player at 10 if you were a better drafter.  The difference between 10 and 16 is the 6 players taken from 10-15 every single year, which you will never be able to draft at 16, and which give you a much higher likelihood of getting an impact player.

EDIT: 2011 is a good example of this.  the 10th pick was Jimmer Fredette. The 16th pick was Nikola Vucevic.  11 was Klay Thompson.  12-15 were Alec Burks, the Morris twins, and Kawhi Leonard.  Thus if the Kings weren't idiots, they would have had their pick of 3 all star level players in Leonard, Thompson, and Vucevic or 3 solid rotational players in Burks and the Morris brothers, but instead they took Fredette.  That is the advantage of 10 vs. 16.  And while 2011 was a bit rare with the shear quality of player still on the board at 10, every year there are a lot more quality players available at 10 than 16.

The thing is, though, in every draft, you can generally count on a good number of the teams picking in front of you to be "idiots."  Personally, I think it has much more to do with the draft being far from an exact science.  Sometimes there's simply no way of knowing how a talented nineteen year old will eventually pan out as a pro.

I've always maintained that how well you draft, coupled with how well you develop players, is more important than what spot you happen to picking at.

Yup, you can't count on drafting smart, every team has far more misses than hits. Its pretty much a crapshot.

Even elite can't miss guys flame out or have their bodies break down. The expected value goes up the higher you are but its just too hard to project the future of young guys.

[mctyson]

Sweep was expected.  Team isn't good, but our coach is terrific.  Most tangible benefit of making the playoffs was keeping brad Stevens engaged and his players committed to him.  I've seen a lot of great coaches lose their players.  Regardless of the sweep, I think the players believe in Stevens.  Listened to Simmons/rose podcast recently and they said Stevens will be back in college within the next couple years.  Making the playoffs probably ensures that he stays another season. If Ainge works some magic and gets some real talent here, maybe this will work out.  Not a given though.  A couple more sub 500 seasons and we might have a completely new regime.   Ainge is going to need to land a big fish or two soon. 

Beyond that it's a bunch of overstated nonsense.  Having an extra week of losing basketball does very little to help the players long-term.  If anything it just hurts their confidence and humbles them.  If they react to it by going extra hard this summer, maybe it'll be a good thing.  Buts it's not like an extra 4 losses will have some grand developmental effects.   

Also, slight chance we can spin the "rising team/great coach/refusal to tank/winning atmosphere" storyline in our free agent pitches this summer.  Maybe a star player who wants out will reluctantly include Boston on their "acceptable trade destination" list. 

If you're asking me if the Charlotte Hornets are in a better position having finished with roughly the same record and having the 9th best draft odds, the answer is "probably"... But I like our coach and hope we can convince him to stay.

So much speculation in here with nothing to back it up.

[JMRJAYDIGGLES]

I am curious as to the thoughts of people here on Celticsblog. I oscillate quite a bit on the topic. On one hand playing this time of year has to help, on the other, it is clear we need more talent and getting a better pick would have helped us. I do not see anyone helping us at the 16th pick. I am honestly torn. We have played great basketball against a team with superior and more experienced talent. Has that helped us? Thoughts?

YES IT WAS.....   Just like when some people are looking for work and experience...it always helps to have experience.   Hind sight is worth millions, unfortunately if we missed the playoffs you don't know where we ended up.  At least we know we grown as team and our coach got to coach vs the best.  A good measuring stick when it matters the most.   

[rondohondo]

well just found out I am going to Game 4 , 6th row . This will be my first playoff game, and time sitting up that close

So yea it was worth it 

[Celtics18]

well just found out I am going to Game 4 , 6th row . This will be my first playoff game, and time sitting up that close

So yea it was worth it 

Nice.

Congrats!!

[colincb]

That also doesn't answer the question of what you posit as a plan, or seeing worth in somethign different than your vision. I don't even know what you think. you dismiss any progress made, and you dismiss lottery (maybe? can't tell). So, what is your idea of a plan.

I don't believe the Celts are certain to be mired in mediocrity.  In fact, I believe in Danny Ainge to find a way to the promised land again.

I just can't figure out a plausible path to get there right now.  It's too murky.  I spend so much time wracking my brain trying to figure out how the Celtics are going to become exciting and genuinely competitive again, and I just don't know.  There's too much uncertainty.  That's frustrating.

I'm sure there were plenty of Rockets fans that felt the same way a few years ago.  A smart GM with assets and resources can make good stuff happen in just a few years time.  But the Celts might not get lucky.  We don't know.

I suppose it just bothers me when I feel that others are acting like there's a clear path, or that it's a sure thing.  Because I don't see it.  That's not to say it won't happen.  But I can appreciate what people find appealing about the Sixers, and especially the Pelicans.  Because the plan there is strikingly obvious, even if it is uncertain.

Pho, you're entirely right.  The team isn't in a great position right now.  It's very possible we'll be a 32-45 win team for the foreseeable future.  We have a lot of middling assets to include in trades and some cap space.  Plenty of teams can outbid us in the trade market and there are more desirable destinations for free agents.   The team is very well managed, though.  Ainge knows what he's doing.   If the opportunity presents itself, he'll jump.  The opportunity might not present itself.  Not going to be shocked if we're trying to tank next year.   It's not easy to land superstars and you can't compete without one.

I agree for the most part, and it's certainly frustrating to wonder what direction we are actually headed in. I think from listening to Ainge's explanations this season that he severely misjudged how well this team would perform post All Star break.
In my opinion he thought trading Rondo and Green would guarantee us a top 5 or 6 pick, and acquiring IT was a nice little cherry for seeing them go.

Some fans are in denial about it, but I don't there there's any doubt whatsoever that Ainge intended to bottom out this team this year.  All his quotes this season paint the picture of a guy who is keenly aware that making the playoffs with a below .500 record and getting swept isn't very beneficial. 

There's been 3 shifts this season, IMO.

#1 - Surround Rondo with superstar talent.  Top target was Love.  They would have tried to find some clever way to land Melo as well.  Had we landed Love early enough, we would have tried to fill out the roster by making a play for very available players like Asik and Afflalo.    -  We failed to land the superstar and abandoned the plan.

#2 - Get rid of all quality vets and bottom out.  Land the superstar prospect we failed to get by tanking last year.  -  That failed, because Stevens is an exceptional coach.

#3 -  Oops.. we've played ourselves out of a Top 5 pick.  Ugh.  Well... at least give them a shot and hope we can carry the good vibes into free agency (hence trying to sign McGee).  At least try to keep Stevens entertained so he doesn't jump ship to the College ranks (very real possibility in the next couple years if we don't continue forward momentum)

But the bulk of this season was dedicated to bottoming out again.   Aside from Bass, we squeezed every last drop of value out of our veteran contributors.  Had we added a top 5 pick to this roster, we'd be in pretty good position.   

As for the Thomas trade... that was on the cusp of the team realizing they wouldn't be getting a top 5 pick.  I think that was more just motivated by snatching up a valuable player on a discount.  He's a more tradeable asset this summer than the pick we gave up.   He helped us win a bit more, but it was clear even with him injured this team was overachieving their way into the also-ran playoff spot.

The Cs could have shot for a top 5 pick easily enough.  Might not have made it because the bottom feeders whose rosters and rebuilding efforts you profess so much faith in suck so much, The Cs with 20 wins were on pace for 32 wins prior to the Thomas trade and before Sullinger got injured.  They won only six games last year after the ASG and it would not have been tough to end up near the same 25 wins without Rondo, Green, Sullinger, and Thomas. Still nowhere near the 15 wins you predicted for the Cs, but if Ainge was out to tank hard he could have.

Back on earth, Ainge jettisoned players that were likely to bolt in free agency for picks. Thereafter, he made trade after trade trying to accrete value through singles and doubles for players he was intrigued by. Thomas just happened to be the perfect fit as a scorer whose lack of defense was made up by AB, MS, and JC. We lost a bunch of games in the pre-ASG because lack of 4th quarter scoring and the one thing Thomas was sure to provide was 4th quarter scoring.

I am sure Ainge would have preferred substantial improvement in the team without a corresponding increase in wins, but that is a tough trick to pull off.  Nonetheless, Ainge he was trying to improve the team, not tank as you claim. Tough to spin the Zeller or Prince or Thomas trades or the Turner signing any other way. You tried.

[Ilikesports17]

Sweep was expected.  Team isn't good, but our coach is terrific.  Most tangible benefit of making the playoffs was keeping brad Stevens engaged and his players committed to him.  I've seen a lot of great coaches lose their players.  Regardless of the sweep, I think the players believe in Stevens.  Listened to Simmons/rose podcast recently and they said Stevens will be back in college within the next couple years.  Making the playoffs probably ensures that he stays another season. If Ainge works some magic and gets some real talent here, maybe this will work out.  Not a given though.  A couple more sub 500 seasons and we might have a completely new regime.   Ainge is going to need to land a big fish or two soon. 

Beyond that it's a bunch of overstated nonsense.  Having an extra week of losing basketball does very little to help the players long-term.  If anything it just hurts their confidence and humbles them.  If they react to it by going extra hard this summer, maybe it'll be a good thing.  Buts it's not like an extra 4 losses will have some grand developmental effects.   

Also, slight chance we can spin the "rising team/great coach/refusal to tank/winning atmosphere" storyline in our free agent pitches this summer.  Maybe a star player who wants out will reluctantly include Boston on their "acceptable trade destination" list. 

If you're asking me if the Charlotte Hornets are in a better position having finished with roughly the same record and having the 9th best draft odds, the answer is "probably"... But I like our coach and hope we can convince him to stay.

I think it's worth pointing out that the bobcats, whom I'm sure you agree are in a very similar position to us in terms of taken have made selections in the top 10 in each of the last 4 drafts including the #2 and #4 selections.

[LarBrd33]

Ask 2013 Philly how much their success in the 2012 playoffs mattered.  A year after upsetting the #1 seed Bulls and taking the Celtics to 7 games, their lack of talent landed them right back in the lotto where they belonged.

It might have mattered if they had passed on the Bynum deal, kept Iguodala, and moved forward with the Holiday, Turner, Iggy, Young core.

Not saying they'd have been better off long term, but you're ignoring the fact that they made a gamble that failed miserably and then chose to bottom out quite deliberately in light of that.

And if we let Bass/Crowder walk, trade a package of talent for an impact player and sign a perceived impact free agent, it might result in us falling right on our faces like 2013 Philly.

Standing pat keeps us irrelevant.  Taking a swing might result in a strike out.  No clear path towards relevance here.

I agree that there's no clear path to becoming a contender.  However, the path wouldn't have been any clearer had we missed the playoffs.

I doubt 9 vs 16 is going to be a big difference.  Keeping Brad happy offsets the loss there.   A top 5 pick would have made a big difference, but that was never really an option for us.  Looks like Brad can squeeze juice out of a rock.  It's not going to be very tasty juice, but it's juice nonetheless.  So yeah, I'd say making the playoffs didn't really matter one way or the other. 

[LarBrd33]

That also doesn't answer the question of what you posit as a plan, or seeing worth in somethign different than your vision. I don't even know what you think. you dismiss any progress made, and you dismiss lottery (maybe? can't tell). So, what is your idea of a plan.

I don't believe the Celts are certain to be mired in mediocrity.  In fact, I believe in Danny Ainge to find a way to the promised land again.

I just can't figure out a plausible path to get there right now.  It's too murky.  I spend so much time wracking my brain trying to figure out how the Celtics are going to become exciting and genuinely competitive again, and I just don't know.  There's too much uncertainty.  That's frustrating.

I'm sure there were plenty of Rockets fans that felt the same way a few years ago.  A smart GM with assets and resources can make good stuff happen in just a few years time.  But the Celts might not get lucky.  We don't know.

I suppose it just bothers me when I feel that others are acting like there's a clear path, or that it's a sure thing.  Because I don't see it.  That's not to say it won't happen.  But I can appreciate what people find appealing about the Sixers, and especially the Pelicans.  Because the plan there is strikingly obvious, even if it is uncertain.

Pho, you're entirely right.  The team isn't in a great position right now.  It's very possible we'll be a 32-45 win team for the foreseeable future.  We have a lot of middling assets to include in trades and some cap space.  Plenty of teams can outbid us in the trade market and there are more desirable destinations for free agents.   The team is very well managed, though.  Ainge knows what he's doing.   If the opportunity presents itself, he'll jump.  The opportunity might not present itself.  Not going to be shocked if we're trying to tank next year.   It's not easy to land superstars and you can't compete without one.

I agree for the most part, and it's certainly frustrating to wonder what direction we are actually headed in. I think from listening to Ainge's explanations this season that he severely misjudged how well this team would perform post All Star break.
In my opinion he thought trading Rondo and Green would guarantee us a top 5 or 6 pick, and acquiring IT was a nice little cherry for seeing them go.

Some fans are in denial about it, but I don't there there's any doubt whatsoever that Ainge intended to bottom out this team this year.  All his quotes this season paint the picture of a guy who is keenly aware that making the playoffs with a below .500 record and getting swept isn't very beneficial. 

There's been 3 shifts this season, IMO.

#1 - Surround Rondo with superstar talent.  Top target was Love.  They would have tried to find some clever way to land Melo as well.  Had we landed Love early enough, we would have tried to fill out the roster by making a play for very available players like Asik and Afflalo.    -  We failed to land the superstar and abandoned the plan.

#2 - Get rid of all quality vets and bottom out.  Land the superstar prospect we failed to get by tanking last year.  -  That failed, because Stevens is an exceptional coach.

#3 -  Oops.. we've played ourselves out of a Top 5 pick.  Ugh.  Well... at least give them a shot and hope we can carry the good vibes into free agency (hence trying to sign McGee).  At least try to keep Stevens entertained so he doesn't jump ship to the College ranks (very real possibility in the next couple years if we don't continue forward momentum)

But the bulk of this season was dedicated to bottoming out again.   Aside from Bass, we squeezed every last drop of value out of our veteran contributors.  Had we added a top 5 pick to this roster, we'd be in pretty good position.   

As for the Thomas trade... that was on the cusp of the team realizing they wouldn't be getting a top 5 pick.  I think that was more just motivated by snatching up a valuable player on a discount.  He's a more tradeable asset this summer than the pick we gave up.   He helped us win a bit more, but it was clear even with him injured this team was overachieving their way into the also-ran playoff spot.

Still nowhere near the 15 wins you predicted for the Cs, but if Ainge was out to tank hard he could have.

I said 15-25 was our range prior to making any moves.   15 was the worst-case scenario.  We ended up flipping half our roster and getting rid of cancers like Rondo who were holding us back.  My pre-season expectations have been irrelevant for a long time.

I just said I see this team as a 32-45 win team right now.   If we go and sign LeBron James this summer, are you going to claim I predicted 32 wins?

[Celtics18]

Maybe we'll hit gold at sixteen.  It does happen. 

[LarBrd33]

Sweep was expected.  Team isn't good, but our coach is terrific.  Most tangible benefit of making the playoffs was keeping brad Stevens engaged and his players committed to him.  I've seen a lot of great coaches lose their players.  Regardless of the sweep, I think the players believe in Stevens.  Listened to Simmons/rose podcast recently and they said Stevens will be back in college within the next couple years.  Making the playoffs probably ensures that he stays another season. If Ainge works some magic and gets some real talent here, maybe this will work out.  Not a given though.  A couple more sub 500 seasons and we might have a completely new regime.   Ainge is going to need to land a big fish or two soon. 

Beyond that it's a bunch of overstated nonsense.  Having an extra week of losing basketball does very little to help the players long-term.  If anything it just hurts their confidence and humbles them.  If they react to it by going extra hard this summer, maybe it'll be a good thing.  Buts it's not like an extra 4 losses will have some grand developmental effects.   

Also, slight chance we can spin the "rising team/great coach/refusal to tank/winning atmosphere" storyline in our free agent pitches this summer.  Maybe a star player who wants out will reluctantly include Boston on their "acceptable trade destination" list. 

If you're asking me if the Charlotte Hornets are in a better position having finished with roughly the same record and having the 9th best draft odds, the answer is "probably"... But I like our coach and hope we can convince him to stay.

I think it's worth pointing out that the bobcats, whom I'm sure you agree are in a very similar position to us in terms of taken have made selections in the top 10 in each of the last 4 drafts including the #2 and #4 selections.

Front office competence matters.   Hornets (bobcats) are a poorly run organization. 

The point with my comment is that we were basically dead-even with the Hornets heading into the final month of the season.  In terms of talent, they probably have more than us (injuries were the main reason for their weak record).  Over the past month, we surged and were rewarded with a Cavs beat-down and 16th pick.  They faltered (due to injuries) and are being rewarded with the 9th best draft odds.   

Not a significant difference between the two situations, but my guess is that if you were to give the front office a time machine and let them go back and pick from the following two options:

Option 1:  Surge the last month and get beat down by the Cavs - PIck #16
Option 2:  Fizzle the last month and head into the offseason the 9th best draft odds...

My guess is our front office would rather go with Option 2...   Which is why I said they are "probably" in a better position.   I say "probably", because our front office might look at option 2 and decide, "Nah, these Brad Stevens whispers have legs... if we don't make the playoffs, he's jumping ship"