Author Topic: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015  (Read 549992 times)

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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1590 on: May 10, 2015, 10:48:33 PM »

Offline mr. dee

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Rockets are just


Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1591 on: May 10, 2015, 10:55:14 PM »

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I can't believe that Houston are so unlikeable that they are actually making me like and cheer for the Clippers. That is a new low.

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1592 on: May 10, 2015, 10:56:50 PM »

Offline Sievers81

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I can't believe that Houston are so unlikeable that they are actually making me like and cheer for the Clippers. That is a new low.

Haha TP, I was thinking this exact thing earlier!

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1593 on: May 10, 2015, 11:01:24 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I can't believe that Houston are so unlikeable that they are actually making me like and cheer for the Clippers. That is a new low.

Yup.

I've always wanted Morey to succeed, and I like the team he's constructed ... on paper.  But I can't stand them in practice.

Still, I might dislike the Clippers more.

I really, really hope the Clips don't make it to the Finals.
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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1594 on: May 10, 2015, 11:08:14 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Rivers with another good game. A lot of this probably has to do with being guarded by defensive stalwarts such as Harden, Terry, and Prigioni. But it's impressive nonetheless.

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1595 on: May 10, 2015, 11:10:40 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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Man, if we were "demolished" what do you call this?
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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1596 on: May 11, 2015, 12:56:56 AM »

Offline LakersFan_33

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Good for the Clippers. I dislike the Rockets more than I dislike them. If they win it all, it'll be like when the LA Kings won. Not very emotionally involved, but happy for them, and for the city.

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1597 on: May 11, 2015, 01:11:30 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Everybody has gone cold from all the standing around at the FT line.

I don't get it, are these teams blind to facts? I don't remember the exact numbers but when team foul DJ 20+ times the Clips are pretty unbeatable. It's like they don't care and they continue to lose. Sad.

Yeah, the facts are pretty strongly against the strategy (I think the commentators just said the Clippers are 18-2 this season when teams hack DJ). But to be fair, they're the kind of facts that are really hard to accept when the guy shoots 10-28. That an offensive rating of 71.4!

But the trap that teams are falling into is comparing offensive efficiency in a Hack-a-Jordan game to offensive efficiency in a regular NBA game. Rhythm is the issue. If you could actually execute your own offense through all of the stoppages, the strategy would be absolutely dominant. But teams just aren't able to do that.

They need to start comparing the Clippers' Hack-a-Jordan offensive efficiency to their own team's Hack-a-Jordan offensive efficiency. I think if they did this, they would recognise pretty quickly that the strategy is self-defeating.

Worth noting:
Quote
On average, these 14 games saw hack-a-DJ start with an average opponent deficit of 8.8 points. To put a very broad point on that, the Inpredictable Win Probability calculator says an 8.8-point lead with 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter results in a win 92.7 percent of the time. In other words teams tend to hack DeAndre when they’re almost certainly going to lose the game.

The thing that makes broader number dumps less than useful is that taking DeAndre’s numbers in aggregate and comparing them to the Clippers’ offense misses the entire point of fouling Jordan. You aren’t looking for a long-term strategic gain; it’s a short-term gambit. When you foul DeAndre, you strip all of the complexity and redundancies out of an offense, and give it a single point of failure—DJ making his [dang] free throws—and a single release valve, like those offensive rebounds 538 pointed out. Over the course of a game, the Clippers offense is not volatile; it has good shooters, good ball handlers, and good passers all over. But DeAndre at the line? That is a very volatile proposition. This is precisely why teams begin to use it in situations—the clock is short and there’s no time to wait on season-long trends to show up on the scoreboard. Sometimes this works, like in Game 1 of Rockets-Blazers last year. Other times it doesn’t, like in the 15 Clippers wins in that TNT graphic up top.
http://regressing.deadspin.com/teams-fouling-deandre-jordan-lose-because-theyre-alread-1698994779
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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1598 on: May 11, 2015, 01:27:40 AM »

Offline max215

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Refs just handed that game to the Cavs.

Edit: Jeff Van Gundy agrees

How so? They're required to review that call.

If anything, the refs benefitted the Bulls by not calling an obvious foul.

That's true, and LeBron's shot was tremendous and should not be dismissed. However, the free timeout allowed the Cavs to draw that play up AND the refs got the time remaining wrong after the review, relieving some stress from the Cavs. I just think it was a more than suspect sequence of events at a crucial point in the series. IMO the fact that the refs may have, to any extent, given one team (whether it be the Bulls or the Cavs) any advantage is unacceptable.
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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1599 on: May 11, 2015, 03:58:05 AM »

Offline LGC88

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This review system appears very prehistoric to me.
By the time the referees ask for a review, the guy in the cabin already review it and gave the answer.
I wonder why nba doesn't have this kind of system. Fast, efficient and most importantly doesn't interfere with the pace of the game or give free time outs at crucial moments.

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1600 on: May 11, 2015, 04:52:01 AM »

Offline e4e5sesame

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Everybody has gone cold from all the standing around at the FT line.

I don't get it, are these teams blind to facts? I don't remember the exact numbers but when team foul DJ 20+ times the Clips are pretty unbeatable. It's like they don't care and they continue to lose. Sad.

Yeah, the facts are pretty strongly against the strategy (I think the commentators just said the Clippers are 18-2 this season when teams hack DJ). But to be fair, they're the kind of facts that are really hard to accept when the guy shoots 10-28. That an offensive rating of 71.4!

But the trap that teams are falling into is comparing offensive efficiency in a Hack-a-Jordan game to offensive efficiency in a regular NBA game. Rhythm is the issue. If you could actually execute your own offense through all of the stoppages, the strategy would be absolutely dominant. But teams just aren't able to do that.

They need to start comparing the Clippers' Hack-a-Jordan offensive efficiency to their own team's Hack-a-Jordan offensive efficiency. I think if they did this, they would recognise pretty quickly that the strategy is self-defeating.

Worth noting:
Quote
On average, these 14 games saw hack-a-DJ start with an average opponent deficit of 8.8 points. To put a very broad point on that, the Inpredictable Win Probability calculator says an 8.8-point lead with 5 minutes to go in the fourth quarter results in a win 92.7 percent of the time. In other words teams tend to hack DeAndre when they’re almost certainly going to lose the game.

The thing that makes broader number dumps less than useful is that taking DeAndre’s numbers in aggregate and comparing them to the Clippers’ offense misses the entire point of fouling Jordan. You aren’t looking for a long-term strategic gain; it’s a short-term gambit. When you foul DeAndre, you strip all of the complexity and redundancies out of an offense, and give it a single point of failure—DJ making his [dang] free throws—and a single release valve, like those offensive rebounds 538 pointed out. Over the course of a game, the Clippers offense is not volatile; it has good shooters, good ball handlers, and good passers all over. But DeAndre at the line? That is a very volatile proposition. This is precisely why teams begin to use it in situations—the clock is short and there’s no time to wait on season-long trends to show up on the scoreboard. Sometimes this works, like in Game 1 of Rockets-Blazers last year. Other times it doesn’t, like in the 15 Clippers wins in that TNT graphic up top.
http://regressing.deadspin.com/teams-fouling-deandre-jordan-lose-because-theyre-alread-1698994779

Interesting read, but I disagree with the premise.

The author's claiming that expected value is irrelevant because the "entire point" of the Hack-a-Jordan is exploiting volatility (I prefer "variance", so I'll use that from now on). If that was the case, then the only viable application of the strategy would be when facing an otherwise insurmountable deficit in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, a large variance in expected value allows teams to close a large gap in the unlikely event that Jordan's free throw shooting results in a near worst-case probabilistic outcome. This is a viable strategy because the game is already considered lost, so there's nothing left for you to lose if he hits his free throws at anything close to his expected rate.

In any scenario other than an insurmountable deficit, ignoring expected value is pure gambling, and getting excited by large variance is no better than wishful thinking. I have to believe that NBA coaches are smarter than that, so the author of the article has to be wrong. Clearly when NBA coaches employ the Hack-a-Jordan in the first quarter, they are doing so because they think their offense is expected to score at a better rate than Jordan's free throw percentages. Whether or not they are right in thinking that is the question, and that's why I think the article (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/intentionally-fouling-deandre-jordan-is-futile/) that this guy seems to be attacking is far more informative.

The author of that article put a lot more thought into calculating offensive rating than I did (I forgot about offensive rebounds and transition defense, doh!). But even he didn't take into account my point about analysing the effect that Hack-a-Jordan has on the perpetrating team's offense.

Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1601 on: May 11, 2015, 07:19:40 AM »

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I can't believe that Houston are so unlikeable that they are actually making me like and cheer for the Clippers. That is a new low.


It's a dang near toss up for me .    The devil or his brother.

I think the disgust for the Rockets home announcers puts me over the top for hating the Rockets .

I dislike both teams for countless reasons .

I feel sorry for McHale though .   What a sorry job he took.

Blake is the most like able star on either team I suppose

It might be fun watching Blake posterize LeBron and unseat LeBron as NBA s golden boy.

But watching Doc and his IgOR like servant CP3 win is a dagger in my side.






Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1602 on: May 11, 2015, 07:23:36 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Noah's "box out" cracked me up.  The officiating on that last possession left a lot to be desired.


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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1603 on: May 11, 2015, 09:30:17 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Interesting read, but I disagree with the premise.

The author's claiming that expected value is irrelevant because the "entire point" of the Hack-a-Jordan is exploiting volatility (I prefer "variance", so I'll use that from now on). If that was the case, then the only viable application of the strategy would be when facing an otherwise insurmountable deficit in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, a large variance in expected value allows teams to close a large gap in the unlikely event that Jordan's free throw shooting results in a near worst-case probabilistic outcome. This is a viable strategy because the game is already considered lost, so there's nothing left for you to lose if he hits his free throws at anything close to his expected rate.

In any scenario other than an insurmountable deficit, ignoring expected value is pure gambling, and getting excited by large variance is no better than wishful thinking. I have to believe that NBA coaches are smarter than that, so the author of the article has to be wrong. Clearly when NBA coaches employ the Hack-a-Jordan in the first quarter, they are doing so because they think their offense is expected to score at a better rate than Jordan's free throw percentages. Whether or not they are right in thinking that is the question, and that's why I think the article (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/intentionally-fouling-deandre-jordan-is-futile/) that this guy seems to be attacking is far more informative.

The author of that article put a lot more thought into calculating offensive rating than I did (I forgot about offensive rebounds and transition defense, doh!). But even he didn't take into account my point about analysing the effect that Hack-a-Jordan has on the perpetrating team's offense.

That dude's not attacking the fivethirtyeight article, if anything he's using that as a springboard for the newest piece: since Ezekowitz's story came out in 2014 and the Regressing story is from a few days ago.

FWIW I think that people Hack-a-Jordan in the first quarter to try and get into his head, and I'm fairly certain that most of the coaches that do it (Pop springs to mind first) aren't thinking about math at all during that exchange.

*edited for space*

also, the referees gave Cleveland way too much time on the shot clock? I think if they time it correctly James doesn't get the shot off, so whoever said it was Lebron + The NBA versus the Bulls seems to be right.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 09:39:04 AM by D.o.s. »
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Re: NBA Playoffs Season 2014-2015
« Reply #1604 on: May 11, 2015, 10:08:34 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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also, the referees gave Cleveland way too much time on the shot clock? I think if they time it correctly James doesn't get the shot off, so whoever said it was Lebron + The NBA versus the Bulls seems to be right.

I mean, in that situation I think it's more that the NBA wants there to be enough time for somebody to get off a potential game-winning shot, regardless of what team is taking the shot.
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