How big a deal is losing a top 10 pick (Heat)

[SHAQATTACK]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.

Yup ...the cHeat are very tuff with that crew ..I fully expect the cHeat to beat the Bulls tomorrow .    I like the Bulls ...but they just get punked too easy ....Bulls just won't play dirty enough to beat the thug team.

I count this home Heat game against Bulls being a WIN for them.

[GzUP617]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.

Yup ...the cHeat are very tuff with that crew ..I fully expect the cHeat to beat the Bulls tomorrow .    I like the Bulls ...but they just get punked too easy ....Bulls just won't play dirty enough to beat the thug team.

I count this home Heat game against Bulls being a WIN for them.

The Heat do not have a draft pick this year, they have no incentive to miss the playoffs.

[tazzmaniac]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.

Yup ...the cHeat are very tuff with that crew ..I fully expect the cHeat to beat the Bulls tomorrow .    I like the Bulls ...but they just get punked too easy ....Bulls just won't play dirty enough to beat the thug team.

I count this home Heat game against Bulls being a WIN for them.

The Heat do not have a draft pick this year, they have no incentive to miss the playoffs.

The Sixer's acquired the Heat's 1st round pick but it is top 10 protected in 2015 and 2016 and unprotected in 2017.  So if the Heat finish with a top 10 pick after the lottery they keep the pick this year. 

[Beat LA]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.

Yup ...the cHeat are very tuff with that crew ..I fully expect the cHeat to beat the Bulls tomorrow .    I like the Bulls ...but they just get punked too easy ....Bulls just won't play dirty enough to beat the thug team.

I count this home Heat game against Bulls being a WIN for them.

You don't consider a Bulls team coached by Thibs featuring Noah (now there's an interesting idea for an album, although it also has to feature pitbull, because everything features pitbull, lol ) a thug team, because they're right up there with the worst to me.

[celticsclay]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.

Yup ...the cHeat are very tuff with that crew ..I fully expect the cHeat to beat the Bulls tomorrow .    I like the Bulls ...but they just get punked too easy ....Bulls just won't play dirty enough to beat the thug team.

I count this home Heat game against Bulls being a WIN for them.

You don't consider a Bulls team coached by Thibs featuring Noah (now there's an interesting idea for an album, although it also has to feature pitbull, because everything features pitbull, lol ) a thug team, because they're right up there with the worst to me.

I am still trying to understand how the Heat beat Atlanta. It's like people are forgetting Wade is 33 and has been constantly injured for years, Deng needs knee surgery and Bosh is out for the year. They have a few sexy names on their schedule but they really have been anything but tough, especially since Bosh went out.

[D.o.s.]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

[celticsclay]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

Well. I think that is possible, but unlikely. However, there is a huge difference between winning a series and having it go 6 games. Additionally, our team is completely healthy while the Heat are without their best player and have two other starters seriously banged up. If we had IT out for the year, Avery Bradley battling a knee issue, Zeller and Bass limited, I don't think people would still say 6 games.

[fairweatherfan]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

I'm hearing an echo from your autumn assessment of our likelihood of making the playoffs 

[loco_91]

I do think it's a mistake, but there are some mitigating circumstances:
-The Heat are not in rebuild mode, and as a 'glamor' city, they have to think about their free agency odds. Whereas the C's are unlikely to attract a big FA either way, the Heat could be an attractive destination (not sure what their cap situation is though)
-Their fanbase is used to being perennial contenders. They risk drawing a lot of ire if they tank out of the playoffs; it would amplify the pain of losing LeBron.
-It's likely that whoever they draft will not help them before Wade goes really downhill and their window closes.

So I understand what they are doing, but if I were a heat fan I'd definitely be frustrated.

[D.o.s.]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

I'm hearing an echo from your autumn assessment of our likelihood of making the playoffs 

As always, I'll be very happy to be wrong.

[mef730]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

If I wanted reality, why would I spend so much time on the internet? 

Mike

[D.o.s.]

Nicely said. TP.

[Endless Paradise]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

I'm hearing an echo from your autumn assessment of our likelihood of making the playoffs 

To be fair, I don't think anyone predicted the bottom of the East being THIS bad. The fact that teams like the Celtics, the Heat, the Nets, the Hornets, and the Pacers are theoretically still in position to make the playoffs whereas one of Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis is guaranteed to miss them is kind of a joke.

[celticsclay]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

I'm hearing an echo from your autumn assessment of our likelihood of making the playoffs 

To be fair, I don't think anyone predicted the bottom of the East being THIS bad. The fact that teams like the Celtics, the Heat, the Nets, the Hornets, and the Pacers are theoretically still in position to make the playoffs whereas one of Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis is guaranteed to miss them is kind of a joke.

Not saying I disagree with you overall. However, the second Paul George broke his leg it became apparent that the Pacers were going to be very significantly worse this year. They were a pretty average team for most of last year and had lost 2 of their best 5 players and having West get a year later into his mid 30's did not seem very promising.

I think the Nets also are probably about where most people would have guessed. They were losing Pierce who was a very solid contributor and also had two of their key contributors in Johnson and Williams being on the wrong side of 30.

The Heat have definitely fell beneath expectations, but I think many questioned the wisdom of bringing back a team that lost the best player in the game and had several rotation players ranging from old to ancient (Wade, Anderson, Haslem). They probably should have been closer to 500 than the 36 win team they will end up being.

However, the Celtics and Hawks have also wildly exceeded expectations. The Bucks have slightly exceeded them. I think the Bulls, Raptor, Cavs. and Wizards were within their expected range of outcomes. 

I guess I am just trying to think aloud to figure out how three sub .500 teams could make the playoffs...

[fairweatherfan]

Probably the same way people assume the C's could take the Hawks to six games: blind optimism with little basis in reality.

I'm hearing an echo from your autumn assessment of our likelihood of making the playoffs 

To be fair, I don't think anyone predicted the bottom of the East being THIS bad. The fact that teams like the Celtics, the Heat, the Nets, the Hornets, and the Pacers are theoretically still in position to make the playoffs whereas one of Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis is guaranteed to miss them is kind of a joke.

I wasn't really referring to the prediction itself - I didn't think we'd make the playoffs either - so much as the certainty expressed and derogation of the mindset of people who disagreed.  I think it's easy sometimes to blur the line between "probably won't happen" and "definitely won't happen and you're foolish to think it's even possible".