How big a deal is losing a top 10 pick (Heat)

[celticsclay]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

[Who]

It looks like there is a drop off right around the 10th pick as well.

Wasted opportunity.

[csfansince60s]

It looks like there is a drop off right around the 10th pick as well.

Wasted opportunity.

Completely agree.

Instant gratification vs delayed gratification. Not very wise.

[nickagneta]

It's only a missed opportunity if you draft someone at 9 or 10 that isn't as good as a player drafted in the 11-17 spot. And, every year that does happen. So in essence it's really about being a good drafter and making sure you get that best guy left on the board, no matter where you draft.

Personally, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 17th. You just have to take the right guy.

2014 do you want Noah Vonleh or Zach. Levine or Josef Nurkic
2013 do you want Trey Burke or the Greek Freak or Denis Schoeder
2012 do you want Austin Rivers or John Henson or Tyler Zeller

It's a matter of hitting on the pick once past the top 5 picks or so, not necessarily exactly where you pick

[Eddie20]

It's only a missed opportunity if you draft someone at 9 or 10 that isn't as good as a player drafted in the 11-16 spot. And, every year that does happen. So in essence it's really about being a good drafter and making sure you get that best guy left on the board, no matter where you draft.

Personally, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 15th. You just have to take the right guy.

It's about the Heat, not about us. The Heat lost their pick completely if it falls outside the top 10. That said, the Heat won't tank. This is Riley a few weeks ago:

For me, it’s not through the draft, because lottery picks are living a life of misery. That season is miserable. And if you do three or four years in a row to get lottery picks, then I’m in an insane asylum. And the fans will be, too. So who wants to do that?”

[SHAQATTACK]

If DA wants WCS .......and I'm just say n ....have no idea ....and ..cause I really I'm horrible in picking myself other than first three or no brainers.......I think having the 10 th pick is kinda critical ......if he wants to try and trade up to 7 or 8 th   ....maybe that's doable .....more so than from 14 th or 15 th. Spot.

Every game we win , puts the odds at dealing for a good center 5 man  further out of reach ...unless he trades a lot of firsts ......no sure anybody after the top five is worth our future

With Monroe back and Pistons play good at home ......I m feeling like our lottery prospects could go up tonight.

[nickagneta]

It's only a missed opportunity if you draft someone at 9 or 10 that isn't as good as a player drafted in the 11-16 spot. And, every year that does happen. So in essence it's really about being a good drafter and making sure you get that best guy left on the board, no matter where you draft.

Personally, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 15th. You just have to take the right guy.

It's about the Heat, not about us. The Heat lost their pick completely if it falls outside the top 10. That said, the Heat won't tank. This is Riley a few weeks ago:

For me, it’s not through the draft, because lottery picks are living a life of misery. That season is miserable. And if you do three or four years in a row to get lottery picks, then I’m in an insane asylum. And the fans will be, too. So who wants to do that?”

I still stand by my statement even if it doesn't pertain to Miami. OTOH it's Miami. Who cares?

[celticsclay]

It's only a missed opportunity if you draft someone at 9 or 10 that isn't as good as a player drafted in the 11-16 spot. And, every year that does happen. So in essence it's really about being a good drafter and making sure you get that best guy left on the board, no matter where you draft.

Personally, I don't see a big difference most years between selecting 10th or 15th. You just have to take the right guy.

It's about the Heat, not about us. The Heat lost their pick completely if it falls outside the top 10. That said, the Heat won't tank. This is Riley a few weeks ago:

For me, it’s not through the draft, because lottery picks are living a life of misery. That season is miserable. And if you do three or four years in a row to get lottery picks, then I’m in an insane asylum. And the fans will be, too. So who wants to do that?”

I still stand by my statement even if it doesn't pertain to Miami. OTOH it's Miami. Who cares?

This is in the around the NBA section and could be a moment that shifts that landscape of the NBA next season. If the Heat lose a few games and keep their pick, they could theoretically trade it for an all-star or near star level player. In my opinion it is incredibly foolish because they really need one more player to push Wade, Bosh, Dragic over the top in the East.

Furthermore, all the arguments that apply to the Celtics for fighting to the playoffs don't really apply to the Heat

1) Their coach doesn't lack playoff experience or coaching against a team in a 7 game series. They have played in 4 straight finals.
2) Their players don't lack playoff experiences with pretty much all their rotation players having been on the team for one of their playoff runs

Additionally
3) Wade has a limited amount of miles left on his body. Forcing him to grind through the end of a season for an additional 5 game butt whupping while potentially missing the opportunity to draft someone that could ease his minutes next year seems like a double whammy of bad.

[celticsclay]

If DA wants WCS .......and I'm just say n ....have no idea ....and ..cause I really I'm horrible in picking myself other than first three or no brainers.......I think having the 10 th pick is kinda critical ......if he wants to try and trade up to 7 or 8 th   ....maybe that's doable .....more so than from 14 th or 15 th. Spot.

Every game we win , puts the odds at dealing for a good center 5 man  further out of reach ...unless he trades a lot of firsts ......no sure anybody after the top five is worth our future

With Monroe back and Pistons play good at home ......I m feeling like our lottery prospects could go up tonight.

This is not the right thread....

[Eddie20]

If DA wants WCS .......and I'm just say n ....have no idea ....and ..cause I really I'm horrible in picking myself other than first three or no brainers.......I think having the 10 th pick is kinda critical ......if he wants to try and trade up to 7 or 8 th   ....maybe that's doable .....more so than from 14 th or 15 th. Spot.

Every game we win , puts the odds at dealing for a good center 5 man  further out of reach ...unless he trades a lot of firsts ......no sure anybody after the top five is worth our future

With Monroe back and Pistons play good at home ......I m feeling like our lottery prospects could go up tonight.

This is going to be a good game. Gorman said today that he feels Monroe is the "big name" free agent most likely to be a C next year.

[Celtics18]

It will be unfortunate for their franchise if they lose out on a top ten pick.  However, I can't begrudge them for going out and trying to win games with the roster they have.

You simply can't go out there and start throwing games.  You have to play them all to win.  Anything else is really poor sportsmanship and completely unethical.

I guess you can try to create a team from a management perspective that is in a "rebuilding phase"; i.e, they won't win a lot of games.  But, if that team (like ours) wins more games than expected, you have to accept that fact. 

[GratefulCs]

If DA wants WCS .......and I'm just say n ....have no idea ....and ..cause I really I'm horrible in picking myself other than first three or no brainers.......I think having the 10 th pick is kinda critical ......if he wants to try and trade up to 7 or 8 th   ....maybe that's doable .....more so than from 14 th or 15 th. Spot.

Every game we win , puts the odds at dealing for a good center 5 man  further out of reach ...unless he trades a lot of firsts ......no sure anybody after the top five is worth our future

With Monroe back and Pistons play good at home ......I m feeling like our lottery prospects could go up tonight.

This is going to be a good game. Gorman said today that he feels Monroe is the "big name" free agent most likely to be a C next year.

I could get down with monroe

[tazzmaniac]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft. 

[celticsclay]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

[tazzmaniac]

So I thought this deserved its' own thread and was curious how many people shared my viewpoint.
Some Facts

If the Heat lose 3 out of their last 5 games they most likely will get a top ten pick. If they were to tank like the Warriors did a few seasons ago to get Barnes, they could pretty much guarantee a top 10 pick (their would be .00000001 chance of multiple teams from 11 or worse winning the lottery) and would also have the small chance of landing a top 3 pick.

If they make the playoffs or worse, just miss, they immediately lose the pick if it falls outside the top 10.

Next year with a return of Bosh, full season of Dragic (he has expressed interest in resigning), healthier season from Deng, potential development from Whiteside and the return of Napier, Roberts and a top 10 pick the Heat would be considered a significantly stronger squad than this year's edition.

They have seemingly delayed knee surgery for Deng and have been having Wade have procedures to keep playing for a 50% chance of making the playoffs. Bosh is out for the season if they do (along with the above mentioned napier and mcroberts), while Deng will not be at full strength for the rest of the season.

What to people make of this? Seeing how much disdain the Celtics have gotten for potentially moving from pick 9 to pick 13 without the implication of losing the pick, it seems like we would be livid as heat fans.   

The Value of a top 10 pick is pretty high. Its been said the Celtics don't have anyone on their roster that could return this high of a pick. So if they chose to chase a title next year they could presumably trade that for a very high quality starter or even lower level star. In other words, this is a pretty valuable asset to lose. Next year's pick would presumably be about 20's barring major injuries and would have the value of say DJ Augistine.

The Heat are an older, injury prone team.  How well and how quickly will Bosh recover?  How many games will Wade miss?  Wade, Deng and Dragic all have player options.  I think there is a good chance they lose Dragic or Deng  in free agency.  So there is no guarantee that they'll be healthier or better next year.  Getting the 10th pick in this year's draft is unlikely to impact their position much next year. 

If the Heat finish 8th and are reasonably healthy, I think they have a decent chance of making the ECF.  They're not going to tank with their older vets just to keep a 10th pick in this draft.

You could get like lottery level odds on that happening. You think without Bosh, and just Dragic, Wade an injured Deng and Whiteside they are upsetting Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round? Then after pulling off that upset, they win a whole other series?

 Look Bosh was their best player this season and he is done. They also have smaller injuries (napier, mcroberts, anderson off and on) that have forced them play guys like Bill Walker, Tyler Johnson and the recently signed Beasely (also injured now) major minutes. I am not sure what you are seeing with their team that you like so much, but can't really say many people are seeing it. Their last two games against top level teams have been absolute disasters and they have lost 7 of 10.

I said if the Heat finished 8th which means they'd face Atlanta in the 1st round and wouldn't have to face Cleveland until the ECF.  I also said they'd need to be reasonably healthy.  I don't think Atlanta is an imposing #1 seed in the playoffs and Washington or Toronto would be quite beatable in the 2nd round.  The Heat are 3-7 in their last 10 games but they were 7-3 in their previous 10 games.  The Heat can be a tough out with Dragic, Wade, Deng and Whiteside in their starting lineup.