Strategy-- Is Losing in 2016 Necessary?

[jmen788]

I know this is a touchy subject, and I will say right off the bat that any criticism levied towards me is justified.

...BUT... strategically speaking, isn't losing (or not making the playoffs) next year a good idea? I say this because next year we could have two lottery picks (ours and the Nets). I agree with the argument that we can "let the Nets lose for us," and I don't want to get greedy... but unless we got Love this offseason or two marquee FAs out of Gasol, Love, Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc, then I don't think we can win the title in 2016. So isn't it better to increase our odds of getting two top 10 or two top 5 picks? Isn't the draft next year supposed to be really good?

[mahcus smaht]

I see your point 100%. Unfortunately for you, Brad is too good, Smart will be too good, Isaiah is too good, even Sully, and KO, will be too good.

We are in the playoff hunt this year and even if we do 0 this offseason we still return Smart, AB, IT, Turner, Young, Sully, KO, Zeller. Keep in mind just about every single on eof these guy will be better and thats not taking into account that fact that Danny owns huge TE's, has a ton of cap, and has 2 1s this year and an early 2. It is virtually impossible for us to tank next year.

Lets say the incredible happens: Danny drafts James Young type project players in the draft, he lets his TE's expire, he uses none of the cap space.

Our lineup:
Smart IT
Bradley Young
Turner
Sully KO
Zeller

I mean thats proabably not a playoff team but thats also the absolute worst case scenario.

Tankers need to move on. It didnt happen, its not going to happen.

I believe when Danny traded Rondo and Green he was trying to tank but we just got better. From here on out its all upward and hopefully brooklyn can grab us a top 10.

[Csfan1984]

You have to want to start winning before the coach loses credibility. Unless you are replacing him. So 2016 makes sense. Let's just hope this year's pick is a Paul Pierce like steal.

[Ilikesports17]

I mean if you put it in vacuum and say:
option a: dont win championship, get 14-20 draft pick
option b: dont win championship, get 0-14 draft pick

then ya, it would help to stink.

But as a poster mentioned, the team would have to really try to suck in order to suck next year and I think intentionally sucking is really frustrating for players and it hurts the coach's credibility creates a toxic environment and it requires us to waste assets like our TE's

[saltlover]

No, it is most certainly not "necessary".  The Celtics have the cap space and resources to sign and/or trade for two top-tier players to add to the current roster, without giving up much if any of the current rotation, and while also keeping multiple unprotected first-round picks in the future.  And they could be in the same situation the following summer.

[jmen788]

No, it is most certainly not "necessary".  The Celtics have the cap space and resources to sign and/or trade for two top-tier players to add to the current roster, without giving up much if any of the current rotation, and while also keeping multiple unprotected first-round picks in the future.  And they could be in the same situation the following summer.

The thing is-- I don't think we will get two top tier players in FA this offeason. I'd be so happy if we got just 1, and I don't think that will happen. Then we are at a point of overpaying for tier 2 FAs and that's not a good strategy, which is why I'd rather not just use the space to use the space and do the draft route 2016...

[colincb]

I know this is a touchy subject, and I will say right off the bat that any criticism levied towards me is justified.

...BUT... strategically speaking, isn't losing (or not making the playoffs) next year a good idea? I say this because next year we could have two lottery picks (ours and the Nets). I agree with the argument that we can "let the Nets lose for us," and I don't want to get greedy... but unless we got Love this offseason or two marquee FAs out of Gasol, Love, Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc, then I don't think we can win the title in 2016. So isn't it better to increase our odds of getting two top 10 or two top 5 picks? Isn't the draft next year supposed to be really good?

The 2016 draft isn't shaping up to be very strong.  Instead we should sell off everything for the 2018 draft where we could have 2 top picks in a draft that may be better. If we're lucky we might beat out the Sixers for the top pick.

[mctyson]

I know this is a touchy subject, and I will say right off the bat that any criticism levied towards me is justified.

...BUT... strategically speaking, isn't losing (or not making the playoffs) next year a good idea? I say this because next year we could have two lottery picks (ours and the Nets). I agree with the argument that we can "let the Nets lose for us," and I don't want to get greedy... but unless we got Love this offseason or two marquee FAs out of Gasol, Love, Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc, then I don't think we can win the title in 2016. So isn't it better to increase our odds of getting two top 10 or two top 5 picks? Isn't the draft next year supposed to be really good?

No, and I will explain this again for the umpteenth time on this board:

There is no such thing as a "really good" draft in the future tense.  Drafts can only be good when you look back years after they occur. 

And when we do look back at almost every single draft since the lottery was invented, we see some very scary things.  I haven't calculated this out, but just by looking at the history I see the following --for every All-Star drafted in the lottery range, there are at least 2 (if not more) complete NBA busts.

In other words:  we have a much higher chance of drafting a below average-to-useless NBA player then we do of drafting an All-Star.

Tanking, on average, is a terrible idea.

[Ilikesports17]

I know this is a touchy subject, and I will say right off the bat that any criticism levied towards me is justified.

...BUT... strategically speaking, isn't losing (or not making the playoffs) next year a good idea? I say this because next year we could have two lottery picks (ours and the Nets). I agree with the argument that we can "let the Nets lose for us," and I don't want to get greedy... but unless we got Love this offseason or two marquee FAs out of Gasol, Love, Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc, then I don't think we can win the title in 2016. So isn't it better to increase our odds of getting two top 10 or two top 5 picks? Isn't the draft next year supposed to be really good?

The 2016 draft isn't shaping up to be very strong.  Instead we should sell off everything for the 2018 draft where we could have 2 top picks in a draft that may be better. If we're lucky we might beat out the Sixers for the top pick.

I hate tanking but I get the logic, this on the other hand is ridiculous and I hope to god that you are kidding. This might be, legitimately the worst idea I have seen on Celtics blog.

OP makes a reasonable case. You, well, I hope you are kidding.

[Quetzalcoatl]

#1 reason not to tank anymore: brad has an opt out clause for Indiana

[Ilikesports17]

#1 reason not to tank anymore: brad has an opt out clause for Indiana

Agreed, if Danny goes through this offseason and leaves Brad with an even worse team than he has now. (which would be required in order to "lose in 2016") I dont see why Brad would stick around. He is just starting to make progress with a talent stricken team and Danny tears it all down again.

Lets face it, its not going to happen. They could literally ad 0 players this offseason and they would probably improve on the whole with consistency and guys like Smart, KO, Sully, and Young improving

[colincb]

I know this is a touchy subject, and I will say right off the bat that any criticism levied towards me is justified.

...BUT... strategically speaking, isn't losing (or not making the playoffs) next year a good idea? I say this because next year we could have two lottery picks (ours and the Nets). I agree with the argument that we can "let the Nets lose for us," and I don't want to get greedy... but unless we got Love this offseason or two marquee FAs out of Gasol, Love, Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc, then I don't think we can win the title in 2016. So isn't it better to increase our odds of getting two top 10 or two top 5 picks? Isn't the draft next year supposed to be really good?

The 2016 draft isn't shaping up to be very strong.  Instead we should sell off everything for the 2018 draft where we could have 2 top picks in a draft that may be better. If we're lucky we might beat out the Sixers for the top pick.

I hate tanking but I get the logic, this on the other hand is ridiculous and I hope to god that you are kidding. This might be, legitimately the worst idea I have seen on Celtics blog.

OP makes a reasonable case. You, well, I hope you are kidding.

I don't think OP makes a reasonable case. It's the same case for tanking with a 2016 label slapped on it like lipstick on a pig.

2016 isn't a great draft by several accounts, the BKN pick isn't dependent on our performance, and we're actually quite a bit better than the bottom feeders right now and we're not going to beat them out in a race to the bottom.  You might as well sell what you have for pennies on the dollar, because you're not going to develop players by tanking.

BCS would head back to college too. I don't think you have to read too deeply between the lines that he's not that pleased with the constant upheavals of the roster so far and the OP wants to take us back to square one.

[nopassbass]

We do need to move on from tanking and make the playoffs now. I worry about Stevens leaving too.

[obnoxiousmime]

If we can't lose enough in 2015, how are we going to lose in 2016? The team could stay the same if they let go of all the vets but to play worse would be surprising. Hopefully they change the playoff rules and balance the schedule, then next year our draft position will more accurately reflect our record.

There are good players all throughout the draft but it's certainly more difficult to get those impact starters in the teens. There's nothing they can do though, Stevens is too good and the players have all bought in. It's looking like the Celtics will have to go the trade route but it's not a good time for that strategy. With the cap rising a lot of teams will be looking to add salary, not cut it. And the Celtics' biggest needs are still the harder players to get - defensive big man and dynamic offensive wing player. Just look at how many PGs moved around this trade deadline - the league is neck deep in the position now.

[GratefulCs]

Brooklyn baby


They'll stink for us