Strategy-- Is Losing in 2016 Necessary?

[colincb]

I also didn't say we should sell off assets for pennies on the dollar in my first post, now did I? (A)

I believe Ainge gave Mark Blount that mega-deal as well. (B)

Further, I don't think we should give the max to Monroe UNLESS we get our rim protector (I.E. Cauley Stein or someone else) in the draft-- he does rebound, but we need a shot blocker and defensive presence up front badly. That's overpaying for a tier-2 guy. Maybe if he was the last piece of the puzzle, but he's not. (C)

(A) Did I say you did?

(B) He drafted Giddens, Melo, and Gerald Green in the first round too. Why do I want picks? Hell, why do I want Danny if he can't sign good free agants and drafts like crap? (Danny's one of the best GMs in the NBA IMO. No one wins every deal and pick, not even Red).

(C) Munroe's not on my list either as I don't see him as much of an upgrade over Sullinger who we can get cheaper.

Wait-- Danny drafted Giddens, Melo, and Gerald Green in the lottery?? I didn't know that..

You're just proving my point that the higher the pick, the better the chance that the player ultimately becomes valuable.

You're claiming that I'm arguing that a lower pick is better than a higher one? That's about as transparent a straw man argument as you could make.

[Hemingway]

Wow, the OP is worse than RealGM

[jmen788]

Wow, the OP is worse than RealGM

Nice to see other/differing opinions are encouraged on here. You are a troll.

I agree with people with the opposite viewpoint that we should try to win to have a better culture. I want to win as well, I was at game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals and it was like heaven. I'm just wondering if we can be an actual contender if we don't get stud FAs (which we are at a disadvantage as it is a cold weather city).

Obviously if I thought we could get Durant or another marquee player in FA then I'd say let's win as much as possible. I just doubt that's happening, and I think the best we could get in FA (I pray I'm wrong) is Monroe if we gave him the max, which is a bad move.

Basically, I don't think we should full on tank next year, but I think other teams could get better as this year is historically bad in the Eastern Conference. And if we can't make shrewd FA signings or get a FA stud (e.g. Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc) and if we don't think we can get Durant the next offseason (or another big name in 2016) then I don't think we should fight for the 8 spot. I also don't think we should fight for the 8 spot this year. Just my two cents.

[Evantime34]

Wow, the OP is worse than RealGM

Nice to see other/differing opinions are encouraged on here. You are a troll.

I agree with people with the opposite viewpoint that we should try to win to have a better culture. I want to win as well, I was at game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals and it was like heaven. I'm just wondering if we can be an actual contender if we don't get stud FAs (which we are at a disadvantage as it is a cold weather city).

Obviously if I thought we could get Durant or another marquee player in FA then I'd say let's win as much as possible. I just doubt that's happening, and I think the best we could get in FA (I pray I'm wrong) is Monroe if we gave him the max, which is a bad move.

Basically, I don't think we should full on tank next year, but I think other teams could get better as this year is historically bad in the Eastern Conference. And if we can't make shrewd FA signings or get a FA stud (e.g. Deandre, Butler, Leonard, etc) and if we don't think we can get Durant the next offseason (or another big name in 2016) then I don't think we should fight for the 8 spot. I also don't think we should fight for the 8 spot this year. Just my two cents.

The problem is what does not fighting for the playoffs entail? In the abstract it makes sense not to try and make the playoffs but in practice with this roster and this coach I'm not sure how you do it.

Ainge already dealt away the best players on the team, unless they attempt to trade Thomas for picks and replace Crowder, and jerebko with d league players we will compete for the playoffs next year.

It is certainly an interesting topic to discuss but with the Thomas signing, a bunch of draft picks and cap space in future I think the ship has already sailed on getting a high pick next year (barring Brooklyn being awful and a rash of injuries)

[BDeCosta26]

Brooklyn baby


They'll stink for us

Simply said: this is the right philosophy. We tried tanking and didn't get a top 3 pick last year.  We tried this year by dumping all the vets and playing youth and still can't get near the bottom 3 without a lottery miracle happening and that's if we don't make the playoffs.

We bottomed out somewhere between last March and this January. Time to start building that winning culture with a dynamic young coach and allow the Nets to be responsible for our lottery picks coming to us.

Couldn't be further from the truth.  It is was clear as day after the Rondo trade that he was a negative player for this team.  If we wanted to truly tank he would have stayed and Sully/Smart/KO would be traded.

No, Danny did everything he could to "tank". If your gonna try, you strip your team down and get rid of anyone over 26 who you don't think can help you when your good again in 3-5 years. Your roster should be nothing but your young guys and bit veterans who were necessary to facilitate deals, play very small roles and stabilize the locker room.

Ainge did all that. He traded our best two players and we even lost our third one for the year with an injury. Like everyone else I'm sure he thought since we were outside of the 8 seed with those guys, without them we would be even worse, a bottom 5 kinda team. It just didn't happen that way. Our young guys are too good, we have good chemistry and Danny hired a hell of a coach. We're only getting better from here, so tanking in 2016 is out of the question. We tried.

Why would you just trade KO, Sully, Smart, AB or any of the young guys when the whole point of tanking is to acquire young talent?  You don't just trade everyone you have that's worth anything in the NBA for whatever you can get just so you can lose as many games as possible. That's wasting assets and losing flexibility. Teams generally have to be bad before they are good, but doing something like what the sixers are doing is not a good play.

[jmen788]

Brooklyn baby


They'll stink for us

Simply said: this is the right philosophy. We tried tanking and didn't get a top 3 pick last year.  We tried this year by dumping all the vets and playing youth and still can't get near the bottom 3 without a lottery miracle happening and that's if we don't make the playoffs.

We bottomed out somewhere between last March and this January. Time to start building that winning culture with a dynamic young coach and allow the Nets to be responsible for our lottery picks coming to us.

Couldn't be further from the truth.  It is was clear as day after the Rondo trade that he was a negative player for this team.  If we wanted to truly tank he would have stayed and Sully/Smart/KO would be traded.

No, Danny did everything he could to "tank". If your gonna try, you strip your team down and get rid of anyone over 26 who you don't think can help you when your good again in 3-5 years. Your roster should be nothing but your young guys and bit veterans who were necessary to facilitate deals, play very small roles and stabilize the locker room.

Ainge did all that. He traded our best two players and we even lost our third one for the year with an injury. Like everyone else I'm sure he thought since we were outside of the 8 seed with those guys, without them we would be even worse, a bottom 5 kinda team. It just didn't happen that way. Our young guys are too good, we have good chemistry and Danny hired a hell of a coach. We're only getting better from here, so tanking in 2016 is out of the question. We tried.

Why would you just trade KO, Sully, Smart, AB or any of the young guys when the whole point of tanking is to acquire young talent?  You don't just trade everyone you have that's worth anything in the NBA for whatever you can get just so you can lose as many games as possible. That's wasting assets and losing flexibility. Teams generally have to be bad before they are good, but doing something like what the sixers are doing is not a good play.

I agreed with lots of your points till the part about trading KO Smart Sully AB... KO and Sully are not elite talents, and could fetch us very little in a trade, and AB is replaceable but I don't think we should trade him for no reason. Of that group, only Smart is untouchable.

[konkmv]

Cavs bulls pacers wizzards bucks raptors heat are surely ahead... it is not sure ghat you will make the playoffs anyway... i think we probably will have 2 lottery... maybe 3.. the dallas pick is not sure to be not in the lottery

[mahcus smaht]

I think that OP's thread title is confusing people (including myself). Titled, "Is Losing in 2016 Necessary" the thread implies tanking. It implies selling off our young improving pieces for picks and project players. I firmly disagree with this strategy. However, throughout the thread, OP's posts have been of the theme that we should go after guys we feel are elite (for me this is Deandre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green and you could make the argument for Greg Monroe. Also if Cousins becomes available he would be priority #1), but if we cant get them, or even if we can only get 1...

The part of his argument I think we can all agree on is:

We shouldn't overpay for a second tier free agent just to use up the remaining cap space and vault ourselves into cap jail without the talent necessary to become a contender.

Danny doesnt need to rush his way into becoming a noncontending playoff team. That being said, there is enough of a structure in place that is doesnt make sense to intentionally move backwards, in large part due to the Brooklyn picks.

Danny should use his TE's and picks to get the most young talent he can, and I believe he should pursue those elite guys, and if he cant get them oh well, take on some expirings with our TE's for picks and move on. This would either leave us late in the lottery or if our guys improve, as it looks like they will, as a 6-8 seed in the playoffs.

Lets face it the Celtics are not putting a product on the floor in 2016 thats worse than the current one.

[jonaslopes]

We shouldn't overpay for a second tier free agent just to use up the remaining cap space and vault ourselves into cap jail without the talent necessary to become a contender.

Danny doesnt need to rush his way into becoming a noncontending playoff team. That being said, there is enough of a structure in place that is doesnt make sense to intentionally move backwards, in large part due to the Brooklyn picks.

Danny should use his TE's and picks to get the most young talent he can, and I believe he should pursue those elite guys, and if he cant get them oh well, take on some expirings with our TE's for picks and move on. This would either leave us late in the lottery or if our guys improve, as it looks like they will, as a 6-8 seed in the playoffs.

Lets face it the Celtics are not putting a product on the floor in 2016 thats worse than the current one.

Completely agree with that. But we also disagree: I think that Monroe and Draymond Green are the typical "good and expensive [Green is not expensive now, but he will be] but not great and capable of really changing things". They should not be our targets. I'd rather wait until 2016 if we can't get these almost impossible guys (Jordan, Gasol, Kawhi, Butler). Draft some pearls, develop and attack for good next year.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Next years draft is weaker than this upcoming one.....

Having said that I do believe we should have bought Brandon Bass out after the trade deadline. We should not be using him in our regular rotation to win a playoff spot in the weak east. IMO if we were to get the 8,9, or 10th pick and land Myles Turner; that would prob be the best case scenario and we did not need to tank and muddy our name to do it. Even if we have to trade up to gte Turner IMO its worth it. I am just afraid that after the combine he his stock will rise.

BTW this was suppose to be the year that we draft our center. Hopefully the ping pong balls will respect the fact that we did not lose on purpose and made a push. But mark my words if we miss out on a rookie center a la Turner because people want us to be entertaining for 4-6 games in the playoffs....I will throw it in your face this summer...thats if your still around and not on the Sox wagon.


Best case (realistic)scenario for this years draft:
Myles Turner(with our first pick)
Cliff Alexander/ Lavert (with Clips pick)
Dakari Johnson(with 2nd rounder)

[jonaslopes]

Next years draft is weaker than this upcoming one.....

Having said that I do believe we should have bought Brandon Bass out after the trade deadline. We should not be using him in our regular rotation to win a playoff spot in the weak east. IMO if we were to get the 8,9, or 10th pick and land Myles Turner; that would prob be the best case scenario and we did not need to tank and muddy our name to do it. Even if we have to trade up to gte Turner IMO its worth it. I am just afraid that after the combine he his stock will rise.

BTW this was suppose to be the year that we draft our center. Hopefully the ping pong balls will respect the fact that we did not lose on purpose and made a push. But mark my words if we miss out on a rookie center a la Turner because people want us to be entertaining for 4-6 games in the playoffs....I will throw it in your face this summer...thats if your still around and not on the Sox wagon.


Best case (realistic)scenario for this years draft:
Myles Turner(with our first pick)
Cliff Alexander/ Lavert (with Clips pick)
Dakari Johnson(with 2nd rounder)

Mine:
Our pick: Myles Turner, Justise Winslow
Clippers pick: Christian Wood, Jakob Poeltl, Tyus Jones, Sam Dekker
2nd round: Guillermo Hernangomez (Marc Gasol type guy), Aleksandar Vezenkov, Dakari Johnson

[BDeCosta26]

Brooklyn baby


They'll stink for us

Simply said: this is the right philosophy. We tried tanking and didn't get a top 3 pick last year.  We tried this year by dumping all the vets and playing youth and still can't get near the bottom 3 without a lottery miracle happening and that's if we don't make the playoffs.

We bottomed out somewhere between last March and this January. Time to start building that winning culture with a dynamic young coach and allow the Nets to be responsible for our lottery picks coming to us.

Couldn't be further from the truth.  It is was clear as day after the Rondo trade that he was a negative player for this team.  If we wanted to truly tank he would have stayed and Sully/Smart/KO would be traded.

No, Danny did everything he could to "tank". If your gonna try, you strip your team down and get rid of anyone over 26 who you don't think can help you when your good again in 3-5 years. Your roster should be nothing but your young guys and bit veterans who were necessary to facilitate deals, play very small roles and stabilize the locker room.

Ainge did all that. He traded our best two players and we even lost our third one for the year with an injury. Like everyone else I'm sure he thought since we were outside of the 8 seed with those guys, without them we would be even worse, a bottom 5 kinda team. It just didn't happen that way. Our young guys are too good, we have good chemistry and Danny hired a hell of a coach. We're only getting better from here, so tanking in 2016 is out of the question. We tried.

Why would you just trade KO, Sully, Smart, AB or any of the young guys when the whole point of tanking is to acquire young talent?  You don't just trade everyone you have that's worth anything in the NBA for whatever you can get just so you can lose as many games as possible. That's wasting assets and losing flexibility. Teams generally have to be bad before they are good, but doing something like what the sixers are doing is not a good play.

I agreed with lots of your points till the part about trading KO Smart Sully AB... KO and Sully are not elite talents, and could fetch us very little in a trade, and AB is replaceable but I don't think we should trade him for no reason. Of that group, only Smart is untouchable.

They're not elite talents, that's true. There's only a few of those and they don't normally get traded on their rookie deals. They're definitely worth more to us than anyone else. You wouldn't move them individually, you'd add them to other assets to get a better return. And I think people around here really undervalue KO. Management thinks highly of him, and they're not the only front office that does. Most coaches would love a young 7 footer with his kind of skills. Trading AB might fetch us less.

Your right about not trading him for nothing. Good 3 and D guards are in demand, and he's developed pretty well here. Smart is a major reason were making a playoff push. Even if you just keep him, assuming he keeps getting better, just him, some fringe guys and Stevens might be enough to get out of the bottom 3-5. You'd have to trade everyone.

We're in the very unique position of having a whole other franchise losing on our behalf. At least one or two of those Nets picks are gonna be in the lottery. MEM pick could be as well. And having those possible literary picks in the years ahead is an easier trade chip to use than your own pick if your trying to get an elite player. It's all about being able to have a hand in all the pots. Ainge has draft picks that are likely to be in the lottery and all his own picks. He has money available to spend on available FA's and he has a treasure trove of trade assets ranging from young players with up-side to draft picks to trade exceptions and expirings.

Whether our own 2015 or 16 pick is number 5 or number 12 isn't what's going to make us great again.

[Celtics4ever]

I think no, it won't be if we draft well and sign one player of worth then we could be a fringe good team.  We have Brooklyn picks to do the tanking for us.

[Greyman]

It isn't a case of, win a Championship in 2016 or tank. I know we will have a stronger team after the draft and trades (in DA I trust). It doesn't mean that we will be a Championship contender straight up.

Obviously, we want to feel that the rebuild will be a lot closer to complete, but the final product could take more time. Winning and being a more of a playoff certainty will do more for the future than losing.

[Hemingway]

The problem as I see it is really the "simulate" feature on all the 2k and nba live video games. Yes on there the best strategy might be to lose games and get a top pick. But in real life it is a terrible idea. Losing creates losing. Thank God the players dont think like some of the fans. Yes getting a number 5 pick this year would be much better than a number 10 pick. But, it is very easy to slip into a losing culture like we had after Bird and like the Clippers have seemingly always had until the last few years.

You need to bottom out to get better yes. But you don't need to stay on the bottom. Being a .500 team is only bad if you are stuck there. To climb a staircase at some point you need to be on the middle step. Its ok. Our old Walker PP team was stuck at .500. Our team now is just approaching it and with shrewd moves we can get better and better.


Thankfully we are doing things the right way. It is a superstar league. But you don't need to suck while you wait for a star. I think we are in a spot where with just small moves we could make our team into a top 5 in the east year after year team while we wait for a star to hit the market. A la Detroit before they got Sheed.


On a side note, what annoys me is the use of the term tanking. Really we will only be tanking if and when we are eliminated from the playoffs. Then, yeah, lose as much as you can, its only a few games. To advocate to tank a whole season before the current one is done is just foolish imo.