Watching the replay of the Butler INT, I think Belichick was going to let SEA score there if they ran the ball.
Watch Hightower right before the snap on the play. He backpedals in the endzone. Why would an inside LB do that on the goal line?
Hightower said they saw the Hawks lining up for a pass play, so I guess he was pulling up in coverage? If Belichick was to let them score, why not take a timeout to preserve clock?
You don't drop into pass coverage before the snap. You might see corners back off their man but its awfully unusual to see a middle linebacker backing off the line of scrimmage at the goal line. He's backpedaling while looking at the sideline. I really think someone was yelling from the sideline to let SEA score there. We may never know the answer to that.
Not calling timeout is still baffling to me. No idea what was running through Belichick's head there.
I think you have it spot on, and that's the reason Bill didn't call the TO. They only had one left, and they were going to let Seattle score. That would give them 30-some seconds to get in FG position and call a timeout to send the game to OT. If Belichick calls the timout there, Seattle inevitably scores, and the Pats are at the mercy of the sidelines and wind sprints on their last drive. The timeout would have given them more options on the hypothetical ensuing drive.
I actually think that's why Seattle called for the pass. They wanted to get a shot, and if they failed, they get the ball back on 3nd and inches with a clock frozen at 30. It saves them the paranoia of worrying about the clock ticking down and acts almost as an "in your face, Bill" moment that counteracts the "let them score" strategy (similar to the 2012 Bowl where the Giants receiver tried
not to fall into the endzone). What I mean is they would have taken the score but an incompletion would have arguably been better. I think it was Carol's idea all along to run the clock all the way down. An incompletion into a run takes more time off and exhausts the Pat's timeouts. But what they didn't seem to account for was the worst case scenario, and that bit them in the butt.
Basically, they tried to outsmart Belichick. Big mistake.